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					Date:      October 27, 2010
To:        Interested Parties
From:      DNC Targeting
Re:        Update on Early Voting

Summary

Early voting is underway across the country, and the results to date are not only not consistent with the existence
of a Republican enthusiasm gap, they show that in key races Democrats are winning.

The Democratic National Committee collects early vote data across the country, and in 11 key early vote states,
Democrats have cast more ballots than Republicans.

Some key points:

       •   We are winning. In key states, such as NV, IA, CA, WI, WA, IL and WV, Democrats are outpacing
           Republicans in early vote. In other states, such as CO, Democrats tend to cast votes later than
           Republicans (as they did in 2008), and we are confident that margin will close

       •   The Republican ‘surge’/’wave’ has not materialized in early vote, and it’s not going to. When we
           look at early vote results by distinct vote history levels (mid-term voters / presidential-year only
           voters), Democratic early voting is comparable, and often higher, than Republican voting.

       •   In key congressional districts, Democrats are out-performing in early vote. In many key districts,
           Democrats are outpacing Republicans both in raw ballots cast and participation rates.

Top-Lines for Key Early Vote States

                                     Early Vote Results – as of 10.26.2010
                         Data from State Boards of Elections and Secretaries of State
                                                           Voted Early
 State                      Democratic           Independent             Republican                % D (vs. R)
 CA                                741,429                313,262              675,299                           52.3%
 IA                                111,760                  40,691              95,432                           53.9%
 IL*                               112,718                  32,286              77,700                           59.2%
 MD                                 60,524                  33,079              26,128                           61.2%
 NC                                201,071                  78,245             171,279                           54.0%
 NV                                110,888                  46,046             106,703                           51.0%
 OH*                               241,826                128,060              182,822                           56.9%
 OR                                167,260                  69,763             138,697                           54.7%
 WA*, **                           235,439                149,161              223,565                           51.3%
 WI*                                23,589                  15,188              23,101                           50.5%
 WV                                 33,415                   5,921              21,200                           61.2%
 * Party in non-party registration states is based on past primary vote history and other measures of partisanship
 ** Pierce County, WA is not exclusively vote by mail which will handicap % Dem
A more accurate ‘enthusiasm benchmark’ is early participation for voters with similar vote history. If Republicans
were more enthusiastic in 2010, they would see significantly higher early vote across all levels of vote history than
Democrats. Most importantly, sporadic Republicans would consistently out-turnout Sporadic Democrats in early
voting. This hasn’t materialized in early vote.

The table below shows early voting totals by vote history for 6 early vote states where the DNC actively collects
early vote data. This table is based on data the DNC collects at the individual level.

            State x Vote History                                          Voted Early
State                Vote History                          Dem                Rep                 Diff

IA
          Previous Midterm                                     83,717              70,891            12,826
          Presidential Year Only                               12,747               9,765             2,982
          First-Time 2008                                       5,928               4,693             1,235

NV
          Previous Midterm                                     83,995              91,019            -7,024
          Presidential Year Only                               12,428               7,537             4,891
          First-Time 2008                                      11,228               5,701             5,527

OH
          Previous Midterm                                   227,514              197,310            30,204
          Presidential Year Only                              13,055                7,495             5,560
          First-Time 2008                                      7,623                5,367             2,256

MD
          Previous Midterm                                     38,510              15,854            22,656
          Presidential Year Only                                4,449               1,515             2,934
          First-Time 2008                                       3,525               1,509             2,016

WI
          Previous Midterm                                     19,074              18,303                 771
          Presidential Year Only                                2,600               2,727                -127
          First-Time 2008                                       1,349               1,486                -137

NC
          Previous Midterm                                   133,935              108,597            25,338
          Presidential Year Only                              18,823               18,491               332
          First-Time 2008                                      9,261                8,120             1,141
CA
          Previous Midterm                                    472,483               455,379           17,104
          Presidential Year Only                                57,966               46,236           11,730
          First-Time 2008                                       64,141               38,240           25,901
* Numbers reported from Secretaries of States and County Boards of Elections and matched to DNC voter
file. These totals may lag current reported totals on Secretary of State web sites (and those on previous
table)

				
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