Threat and Consequence Assessment by EPADocs


									                                                                                                                       OFFICE                OF       RESEARCH                  AND          DEVELOPMENT

                                                                                                                       National Homeland Security Research Center
                                                                                                                        A D V A N C I N G O U R N A T I O N ’S S E C U R I T Y T H R O U G H S C I E N C E

                                                             Threat and Consequence Assessment
                                                         The Threat and Consequence Assessment Division (TCAD) provides guidance and scientific expertise to aid in preparing for and responding to terrorist events.

TCAD’s Mission                                                                                                                          Methods Development                                                                   Determining “How Clean Is Clean?”
The Threat and Consequence Assessment Division conducts risk assessment                                                                 TCAD conducts research on new or modified                                              •   “How clean is clean?” is a longstanding question; however, our national
research to assist emergency responders, decision makers, and government                                                                methodologies to enable rapid evaluation                                                  homeland security interests have added an
officials in the event of a terrorist attack.                                                                                            and estimation of risks during a terrorist                                                increased urgency to finding the answer.
                                                                                                                                        incident involving biological,                                                        •   TCAD is working with stakeholders to develop
Tools Development                                                                                                                       chemical, or radiological agents.                                                         provisional risk-based guidance level goals for
To improve the ability to make risk-based decisions in the field or in an                                                                Key projects include:                                                                     biological and chemical agents.
emergency operations center, TCAD is developing new tools and enhancing                                                                 •    research to develop                                                              •   TCAD’s multitiered approach involves initiating
existing tools.                                                                                                                              microbial risk assessment                                                            new research to determine
•    Emergency Consequence                                                                                                              •    methods to assess effects                                                            exposure levels where data do not
     Assessment Tool (ECAT)                                                                                                                  of subchronic exposures                                                              currently exist, expanding existing
     The ECAT combines the                                                                                                              •    methods to incorporate                                                               extrapolation methodologies, and
     decision making processes                                                                                                               less-than-optimal data                                                               investigating the possible use of
     of the emergency response                                                                                                               into risk assessments                                                                modified exposure pathways.
     and risk assessment                                                                                                                •    methods and models to
     paradigms into a tool                                                                                                                   apply quantitative structure                                                     Selected TCAD Research Projects
     that provides for rapid                                                                                                                 activity relationships                                                           •   Development of Compendium of Prior and Current Microbial Risk
     communication and                                                                                                                                                                                                            Assessment Methods and Approaches as a Basis for Selection,
     informed risk management
     for nontraditional
                                                                                                                                        Microbial risk                                                                            Development, and Testing of Preliminary Microbial Risk Assessment

     contaminants. The pilot                                                                                                            assessment                                                                                Methodologies

     program is scenario-based.                                                                                                         Currently there is no consensus-based                                                 •   Exposure Assessment for Pathogens Aerosolized by Showering, Boiling,
                                                                                                                                        methodology for evaluating biological contaminants                                        Splashing, and Misting of Water from Various Exposure Pathways
•    Enhanced Public Health Surveillance Systems TCAD is working
     with RODS and ESSENCE to incorporate water quality data and water                                                                  and establishing clean-up levels. TCAD is embarking on a progressive microbial risk   •   Development and Application of Improved Infectious Disease
     utility consumer complaints into their nationally available syndromic                                                              assessment (MRA) program evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of existing              Transmission Models Integrated with Population Dynamics
     surveillance programs.                                                                                                             biological risk assessment methods and tools. Researchers are focused on assembling       to More Accurately Assess Direct and Indirect Risk
                                           • Message Maps These highly                                                                  known microbial risk data from the limited human and animal dose-response studies         of Infection on a Temporal Basis Resulting from
                                               acclaimed risk communication                                                             to identify data gaps for future research and                                             Deliberate Biological Contamination
                                               tools deliver the most pertinent                                                         to develop model-based quantitative risk                                              •   Document Collection and Evaluation from
                                               information regarding an                                                                 assessment tools for stakeholders.                                                        Department of Defense Sources to
                                               emergency situation quickly                                                                                                                                                        Provide EPA with Secondary Data of
                                               and concisely. TCAD is helping                                                                                                                                                     Key Organism Specific Characteristics
                                               stakeholders in the responder                                                                                                                                                      for Biological Agents
                                               and environmental communities                                                                                                                                                  •   Development of Statistically-Based
                                               develop message maps for                                                                                                                                                           Quantitative Structure-Toxicity
                                               terrorist threats.                                                                                                                                                                 Relationship (QSTR) Models for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Predicting the Chronic Lowest
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Observed Adverse Effect Level
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  (LOAEL) Endpoint for a Variety
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  of Chemicals
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              •   Evaluation and Validation of Indoor
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Air Dispersion Models
                    US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Homeland Security Research Center

                    Cindy Sonich-Mullin , Director, Threat and Consequence Assessment Division

                    Cincinnati, OH • • Online at:

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