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					 « Initiatives, analyses
  and tools to support
  the development of
     EFA in Africa »



 Diagnosing education
  system : example of
   the sector analysis
    CSR methodology




Dakar, September 2005, 26th-28th
                      EDUCATION SECTOR ANALYSIS


                     NATIONAL SECTOR-WIDE STRATEGY




PRSP                               EFA Plan                    Sector-wide Plan
Sectors chapters :
-Education
-Health
-etc.                                         Consolidation



                                                          Donors and FTI Secretariat
                                                          assessment




                               MONITORING
        HIPC                                                  Fast Track
                     Sector Analysis/ Indicators up-dating
                           Tableau de bord- matrix
                      The CSR methodology
                       (Country Status Report)
• A diagnosis: empirical, comparative and results-based (turning resources
  into results) approach, methodology set up by education economists

• A tool for driving policies’ choices (programming/planning): sector-wide
  consistency (student flow management), trade-offs/ ranking of priorities

• A communication / negotiation tool: national (MinEd – Min Fin –Teachers
  Unions – Parents…), with donors (even more with budget support and FTI
  support)
• Applied by national teams in african countries with a technical support (WB
  and UNESCO/BREDA Pôle de Dakar):
  Benin (2001 + up date summary in 2004), Burkina Faso (2001, incomplete),
  Guinea (2005), Mali (en cours), Mozambique (2001), Niger (2000 + 2004 ),
  Chad (2005)
  Senegal: sector analysis made by a research centre (2003-04)
  Angola, Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone : MICS survey analysis only
  Kenya : ?
      An internal and external analysis of education
                                            7 analytical chapters + 1 synthesis chapter
                 Context
           •Population
           •Macro-economics

   Constraints
                                                                 •Improving policies
                 Education                                                (efficiency)
          •Coverage (different levels)
          •Quality / internal efficiency                         •Building consensus
          •Equity                                                •Credibilising plans
          •Costs
          •Management                                            •Mobilising necessary
                                                                  resources
External efficiency
                 External sectors
            •Employment
            •Economy
            •Health etc…
                                           Includes the FTI Indicative Framework indicators
   CSR methodology: using existing data

• Administrative school census,

• Population census and household surveys (national
  and international surveys : ex: MICS, DHS)

• Finance data: Finance law, executed budget, pay-roll
  data, Ministries’ Adm and Financial direction, HRM

• Employment data: Professional follow-up surveys,
  Employment agencies data

• Learning achievement data: national exams results,
  international surveys like PASEC, MLA, etc
             Population context (chapter 1)
    Assessing the number of school seats needed
    Estimating the HIV/AIDS impacts on education (orphans more
    difficult to enrol, teachers to replace)

                                Number of pupils, primary education (in thousands)
Examples showing the                    1990           2003            2015
  huge quantitative      4000
  challenge :            3500
                         3000
                         2500
A first step has been    2000

  climbed, but the       1500
                         1000
  final one is much       500
  more important            0
                                 Burkina Faso             Mali                Niger
    Macro-economics context (chap 1)

• Estimating resources available for
  education (GDP growth, fiscal
  pressure, share of budget devoted to
  education)

• Rationale of a long-term domestic
  sustainability
   Analysis done in reference to GDP and
   GDP per capita
       Schooling analysis (chap 2)

• Importance of the Primary completion
  rate for assessing Universal Primary
  Education (Dakar and MDG goal)

• Access (admission) - Survival

• Schooling profiles

• Supply-side and demand-side issues
   Literacy is sustainable only for those completing
                       primary cycle

% of adults able to read according to the number of school years done


   100%
    90%
    80%
    70%
    60%
                                                                           Togo
    50%
                                                                           Niger
    40%
    30%
    20%
    10%
     0%
           0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 22




   And completing the primary cycle is the political goal :
   Dakar and MDG
                             Schooling profile
                  Définition : series of the access rate to the different grades
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
 0%
        Grade 1         Grade 2       Grade 3        Grade 4       Grade 5         Grade 6


                                                      
                                         
                                                                
                                                                               
                        Example: Senegal

100%

        91%

80%
                                   78%
       75%
                                           68%     66%
60%
       53%                                                 56%
                                                                   50%

40%               1990/1991                                        43%
                  1996/1997                                        42%

                  2002/2003
20%
             CI               CP         CE1     CE2     CM1     CM2


Over the last 10 years,
       • big improvement in access (admission)
       • decrease in survival within the cycle
                  Supply-demand issue
Using the criteria of Enrolment ratios for choosing the location of
               the new school buildings is not optimal
               Supply-demand issue (2)

                              Survical rate –
              Survival         schools with
                                                       Main
                rate –            supply
                                                      problem
             All schools      continuity all
                              over the cycle
Senegal          70%                 73%              Demand
Guinea           70%                 84%               Supply
Benin            57%                 63%              Demand

The supply-demand analysis should be made region by region in
                    order to target actions
                           Equity analysis (chap 6): example
Girls-Boys disparities but rich-poor disparities even more
important
                                 Disparités de scolarisation en RDC

                           100                  100
                                                                                  94
                            90
                                                                                  85
                            80                  80
     Taux d'accès (en %)




                            70                  70
                            60
                            50
                            40                                                    38
                                  Garçons 20% les plus riches
                            30    Filles 20% les plus riches
                                                                                  24
                            20    Garçons 20% les plus pauvres

                            10    Filles 20% les pauvres

                             0
                                     1ère année                            6ème année

                                                               Source : MICS Household survey 2001
       Costs and resources (chap 3) :
               driving trade-offs
• Inter-sector trade-off (education vs other
  sectors)

• Within Education sector trade-off
  (resources distribution by education level)

• Within each education level, trade-off
  between quantity and spending per pupil

• Within a same spending per pupil,
  resources’ allocation across different
  inputs
Between sector and within education trade-offs: priority for education
      (and for primary education) is very different across countries

                                                                                                      65

                                                           Low priority to education                              Burkina Faso
                                                                                                                                      Zimbabwe
    % of current expenditure for primary education




                                                                                                      60                Niger
                                                            High priority to primary                                Madagascar United Republic of
                                                                                                  Mali
                                                                                       Ethiopia                                    Tanzania
                                                                                                      55Namibia
                                                                                                                         High priority to education
              (ajusted to 6-year duration)




                                                                                                              Benin High priority to primary
                                                                                                      50 Gambia
                                                                                              Mozambique             Chad
                                                     0           5           10          15          20           25 Malawi 30 Uganda 35
                                                                                      Sudan Togo Comoros
                                                                                                             Côte d'Ivoire
                                                                                           Guinea 45
                                                                   Botswana Mauritania               Cape Verde    Lesotho
                                                                                      Burundi Rwanda
                                                       Eq Guinea     Egypt                        40
                                                                        Congo         Cameroon
                                                                           Seychelles              Mauritius    Morocco    Kenya
                                                                                                      35
                                                                                                            Tunisia       Ghana
                                                                  Eritrea     Guinea-Bissau
                                                                                                      30
                                                          Low priority to education
                                                                                                      25            High priority to education
                                                           Low priority to primary
                                                                                          Swaziland                   Low priority to primary
                                                                                                      20
                                                                            % of education in public current expenditure
          Spending per pupil decomposition
 •     Unit cost (spending per pupil) =(Teach. Aver. Sal./PTR) + Other spending per pupil
 •     Teachers average salary should be sufficiently high to attract good teachers and sufficiently
       low to make UPE feasible (being able to hire a sufficient number of teachers)



          Average teachers salary expressed as units of GDP per capita


Guinea-Bissau                          Benin         Ghana Sierra Leone NigeriaMozambique Burkina Faso
 1,5        2,0   Guinea   2,5   3,0     3,5   Gambia 4,0 Senegal   4,5    5,0  Kenya 5,5     6,0   Niger   6,5
                                                                    Mali   Togo     Chad



 • Equity issue across different statutes (civil servant – contract-based –
   community-based).

       Ex Chad : communuty-based paid by Gvt 5 times less than civil-servant
       (community-based paid only by parents : 24 times less) and however best
       results (learning achievement of their pupils) than civil-servant
 System management analysis (chap 7)

• Administrative management: resources
  distribution across schools
  Schooling conditions are the same across districtss ?
    Across schools within the same district?

• Pedagogical management: Transforming
  resources into results
  Do schools with more resources have better results?
                                                    Example resources distribution:
                                                          teachers deployment
                                             Comparison of : Relation entre and number of teachers et d'é lèves
                                            Graphique VII.1number of pupils le nombre d'enseignants in primary
                                                                 education schools in Mauritania
                                                                   (Ensei gnement Fondamental)


                                   25




                                   20
Number of teachers
            Nombre d'enseignants




                                   15




                                   10




                                    5




                                    0
                                        0     100    200   300   400   500     600   700   800   900   1000   1100   1200   1300   1400

                                                                             Nombre of é lèves
                                                                             Number despupils
                                                                                                  Source : CSR Mauritania
          External efficiency analysis (chap 5)

• Analysis of the impact of education (and the different
  education levels) on the human and economic
  development

• Analysis of the Training-Job market consistency

   – Micro level method: comparison of unit cost of training and results
     in terms of professional insertion
        Point out training area/fields/contents to enhance

   – Macro level method: comparison of the education pyramid
     (distribution of individuals according to final level of schooling)
     and the job market (distribution of job offered according to
     qualifications needed)
      allocate resources across education levels in order to maximise the contribution of
     education to economic growth
    Training-Job market consistency: Guinea example
Trainings don’t drive jobs so the education/training system should
anticipate quantitative and qualitative needs of economy

                                            Guinea
       Distribution of those leaving
                                                          Distribution of jobs on offer
           the education system
 Higher education                                         Modern                          8%
                                     28%
 Upper secondary education
 Lower secondary education
                                     24%
 Complete primary                                     Agricultural and
                                                     other informal jobs                  92%
 Incomplete primary
                                     48%
 Never attended primary school

                      Total cohort   100%                      All jobs on offer      100%

There is a dichotomy very difficult to deal with: the job-market is discontinuous
(dual economy) and the training system is very continuous (legitimately,
individuals want to pursue their schooling as far as possible)
Need for a student flow management: protecting UPE, expand as much as possible
lower secondary without penalising quality, training at the upper levels of the
pyramid (upper secondary, vocational, higher education) according to the needs of
modern sector of economy in order to minimise the « production » of unemployed
with a high cost for the education system
  Challenges for realising a useful sector analysis and
                 questions to be addressed
• Technical appropriation
   – Analytical capacity building: need for a planning staff corpus
     within MinEd?
   – Work also done with other ministries (Finances-Civil servant-
     Employment etc)
   – Adding to the analysis a financial simulation model for discussing
     main options of education policies within a realistic macro-
     economics framework

• Political appropriation
   – Real political will to favour collective and long-term interest rather
     than personal/group interests
   – Identifying and implementing reforms according to the analysis

• Questions to be addressed:
   – Existence of a CSR or a similar analysis?
   – Appropriation ? Use of results?
Thanks for your attention

   For further information


    www.poledakar.net

				
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