The International MANPADS Scenario
The MANPADS Threat
SA-14 fired at DHL cargo plane near Baghdad airport, November 2003
A manpad used against an airliner is not a hit-to-kill weapon; it is more like a launch-to-scare weapon…There isn't a current and qualified airline crew that could not handle an inflight emergency regarding any...hit by a manpad. - Letter to the Editor,
Aviation Week & Space Technology
Launch to Scare?
DHL A300 hit by a MANPADS near Baghdad International Airport, Nov. 2003
MANPADS Proliferation
Source: Defense Intelligence Agency
MANPADS Proliferation – Non-Govt
• 1000s acquired by non-state actors
• 1996-2001: acquistion by NSAs 14 confirmed, 27 reported • FAS Study: illicit MANPADS activity in at least 17 countries (mid-2001-mid2007)
Countries in which MANPADS were transferred to, used by, seized from, or stockpiled by non-state actors (mid-2001 to mid-2007)
Georgia Lebanon
Iraq
Russia
France
Colombia
Liberia Afghanistan
Tajikistan
Nicaragua
Chad Saudi Arabia Sudan
Somalia
Uganda Kenya
Sri Lanka
MANPADS in Iraq
• Hundreds, possibly thousands, of MANPADS outside of government control • Sources: Saddam’s stockpiles, external
One of 188 SA-7 missiles turned in by an Iraqi Civilian in October 2003
MANPADS in Iraq
British Lynx helicopter hit by a MANPADS near Basra, 6 May 2006
Recent Reports
• 100 Igla missiles “available immediately” to Viktor Bout
SA-18 Igla
• 30 “shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles” found in arms cache near Gaza.
SA-16 Igla-1
Conclusion
• MANPADS pose threat to all aircraft, although some are more vulnerable than others
• MANPADS have proliferated widely, including to many non-state groups • Terrorists and insurgents worldwide continue to acquire and use MANPADS
Questions?