Power Point Presentation by Mark Levine - Public Service by Leesacks

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									             FAS Symposium:
How Can China and the U.S. Work Together
      to Address Climate Change?

          University of California, Berkeley
               September 25, 2008



               Mark D. Levine
                 Three Topics


• Formation and History of the China Energy Group

• Myths and Realities about Energy and Energy-
  Related CO2 Emissions in China

• Observations on Working with China on Energy
  Efficiency
        Formation and History of the
       China Energy Group: Highlights

• Conference on energy markets in China (Nanjing, 1988) --
  with Jayant Sathaye and Lee Schipper (LBNL)
• Appliance efficiency standards – with Steve Nadel (ACEEE)
• Formation of Beijing Energy Efficiency Center (BEcon) –
  with Zhou Dadi, Bill Chandler (PNNL), and Rick Bradley (DOE)
• Work with the Packard Foundation to create the China
  Sustainable Energy Program at the Energy Foundation –
  with Hal Harvey (Energy Foundation), Susan Packard Orr and Cole Wilbur
  (Packard Foundation)
   –   Later, with Doug Ogden and Yang FuQiang (Energy Foundation)
• Major role in helping the Chinese to manufacture energy
  efficient refrigerators – David Fridley (LBNL)
• Created voluntary agreements as basis for China’s
  industrial energy efficiency policy – Lynn Price (LBNL)
• Advised China on programs to meet its 20% energy
  intensity goal – with Jiang Lin and Zhou Dadi
              The China Energy Group Today


    Nate Aden          (艾东远)            David Fridley       (范德维 )
    510-486-5156       (联系电话)           510-486-7318        (联系电话)
    NTAden@lbl.gov     (电子邮件)           DGFridley@lbl.gov   (电子邮件)



    Ke Jing            (柯晶)             Sammi Leung         (梁詠賢)
    510-486-7534       (联系电话)           510-486-7698        (联系电话)
    JKe@lbl.gov        (电子邮件)           WYLeung@lbl.gov     (电子邮件)


    Mark Levine        (马克 ∙列文)         Hongyou Lu          (鲁虹佑)
    510-486-5238       (联系电话)           510-486-7534        (联系电话)
    MDLevine@lbl.gov   (电子邮件)           HLu@lbl.gov         (电子邮件)



    Lynn Price         (蒲思琳)             Nan Zhou           (周南)
    510-486-6519       (联系电话)            510-486-5534       (联系电话)
    LKPrice@lbl.gov    (电子邮件)            NZhou@lbl.gov      (电子邮件)


               For Further Information 联系信息网址:China.lbl.gov



4
                        Reality


• China has the cities with the worst air pollution in
  the world

• For the first time, policies to improve air quality
  throughout China are taking effect

• There are reasons to be hopeful that this problem
  will be addressed with some vigor over the coming
  decade
  Myth: China’s subsidized energy prices give firms a competitive edge
   Reality: China’s energy prices are mostly at international levels or
                                                                higher

             200
                                                                                           Residents of Guangzhou
             180          Index of Industry and Energy Prices                              pay more ($0.16/kWh)
                                 Overall Industry                                          for electricity than
             160                 Power                                                     residents of San
             140                 Coal                                                      Francisco
                                 Petroleum
             120
                                                                                           Natural gas prices in
2000 = 100




             100                                                                           Shanghai are the same
              80                                                                           as in San Francisco
                                                                                           ($10/mcf)
              60

              40                                                                           Coal prices in China
                                                                                           ($147/t) are now higher
              20
                                                                                           than in the US
               0
                   1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
          Myth: Energy demand growth faster than GDP in developing
                            countries during periods of industrialization
           Reality: China, virtually unique in the developing world, has
                 demonstrated since 1980 that this need not be the case
                1,400

                1,200

                1,000                                                     GDP
   1980 = 100




                                                                          (re v ise d)
                 800

                 600

                 400                                                               E ne rgy

                 200

                  -
                      80

                            82

                                  84

                                        86

                                              88

                                                    90

                                                          92

                                                                94

                                                                      96

                                                                              98

                                                                                         00

                                                                                               02

                                                                                                     04
                 19

                           19

                                 19

                                       19

                                             19

                                                   19

                                                         19

                                                               19

                                                                     19

                                                                            19

                                                                                    20

                                                                                              20

                                                                                                    20
However: From 2001 to 2005, energy demand in China changed
                  course radically, growing more rapidly than GDP
Myth: China is profligate in its use of energy and becoming more so
 Reality: Per capita energy use in China is only 1/8 U.S. & 1/4 EU



                                  350
    Millions of BTUs per capita




                                  300
                                  250
                                  200
                                  150
                                  100
                                  50
                                   0
                                        U.S.   W. Europe   China
                             Myth
     China will soon overtake the United States as the largest
contributor to energy related CO2 concentration in the atmosphere


                           Reality
       By any measure of contribution to atmospheric CO2,
   the Chinese have done far less harm than the United States
Annual energy-related carbon emissions in
China have been growing rapidly since 2001
                         But per capita emissions are much lower
                                  than those of the U.S.


                    25
tonnes CO2/person




                    20
                                            USA
                    15

                    10

                     5                               global average

                                          PRC
                     0
                     1950   1956   1962   1968    1974   1980    1986   1992   1998   2004
And cumulative per-capita emissions are
very much smaller than those of the U.S.
                               Myth
               China is doing little to reduce its
                  growth of CO2 emissions


                             Reality
China’s Target of 20% Energy Intensity Reduction by 2010:
      1.5 billion metric ton CO2 reduction

China is on a course to achieve by 2010:
     > 1.0 billion metric ton CO2 reduction (2/3 of goal, 2005 to 2010)
EU commitment under Kyoto (1997):
      ~ 300 million metric ton CO2 reduction (1997-2012)
Myth: China is inefficient in it energy use and becoming more so.
Reality: Industry consumes 70% of energy in China. Energy
intensities within industrial sub-sectors continue to decline.

                        2.0
                                                                  smelting & rolling of
                        1.8                                       ferrous metals

                        1.6

                        1.4
                                                                        petroleum, coke, & nuke
      kgce/RMB (2000)




                              non-metal min prod
                        1.2

                        1.0                        smelt & roll n-f m
                                                                                raw chemicals & ch pr
                        0.8

                        0.6
                                                                        paper                           coal
                        0.4
                                                             electricity
                        0.2        textiles

                        0.0
                          1995      1996       1997          1998          1999         2000        2001       2002   2003
                                        Myth: China is hogging the world’s oil imports
                                     Reality: China’s imports, while growing, remain a very
                                                    small part of traded oil on world markets

                      90
                                           World Demand       World Oil Trade     China Demand          China Net Imports
                      80

                      70

                      60
million barrels/day




                      50

                      40

                      30

                      20

                      10

                        -

                      (10)
                                                                                         1998
                             1990


                                    1991


                                             1992


                                                    1993


                                                           1994


                                                                   1995


                                                                           1996


                                                                                  1997




                                                                                                 1999


                                                                                                           2000


                                                                                                                  2001


                                                                                                                            2002


                                                                                                                                   2003


                                                                                                                                          2004


                                                                                                                                                 2005


                                                                                                                                                        2006


                                                                                                                                                               2007
  Myth: China’s vast coal reserves, which it is bound to use,
          will swamp any effort to tackle global climate
Reality: On a per capita basis, China is not any better endowed
             with coal than are Germany and Japan.
             Observations on Working with
              China on Energy Efficiency

• High-level government support for energy efficiency
    – 1980-2000; 2006-present
• Well-placed policy research organizations
• Belief in “scientific basis” for policy leads to high receptivity to
  advice based on analysis
• Commitments met
• Well-being of country still above individual in government and
  research circles
• High skill levels

								
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