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PS 134AA COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF

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PS 134AA COMPARATIVE POLITICS OF Powered By Docstoc
					CYCLES AND TRANSITIONS
                READING
• Smith, Democracy, Introduction + chs. 1-2, 4

• Modern Latin America, chs. 3, 5 (Mexico,
  Cuba)

• Magaloni, “Demise of Mexico’s One-Party
  Regime” (CR #1)
                   OUTLINE

•   1.   Concepts of democracy
•   2.   Electoral variations
•   3.   Transitions, To and Fro
•   4.   Case Studies: Cuba and Mexico
•   5.   Caveats, Causes, and Codas
         KEY QUESTIONS
• What explains the spread of democracy in
  Latin America? Given authoritarian past?
• What kind of democracy? What quality?
• What’s new about the current phase of
  democratic change? How does it compare to
  prior periods?
• What role (if any) for the United States?
• What implications for U.S. relations with
  Latin America?
Concepts of Democracy
    DEFINING PRINCIPLES

Participation, such that no substantial segment of the
population is excluded from the effective pursuit of
political power

Competition, such that there are free, fair, and regular
contests for gaining support from the populace

Accountability, such that political rulers and elected
representatives serve as “agents” of their constituents
and must justify their actions and decisions in order to
remain in office.
 INSTITUTIONAL GUARANTEES
1. Freedom to form and join organizations
2. Freedom of expression
3. The right to vote
4. Eligibility for public office
5. The right of political leaders to compete for support
   and votes
6. Alternative sources of information
7. Free and fair elections
8. Institutions for making government policies depend
   on elections and other expressions of popular
   preference.
     TWO KEY DIMENSIONS
• Elections
  Items 3-5, 7-8

• Rights
  Items 1-2, 6

• Question: What if they don’t go together? What
  about the prospect of “illiberal democracy”?
Electoral Variations
            CATEGORIES OF
          ELECTORAL REGIMES
Electoral democracy = free and fair elections

Semidemocracy = elections free but not fair; or, effective
power not vested in winner of elections

Competitive oligarchy = elections fair but not free; candidates
restricted to socio-economic elite and suffrage restricted to
minority of population

Autocracy/authoritarianism = no elections, or elections neither
free nor fair.
                                Figure 1. Cycles of Political Change in Latin America, 1900-2000

         19
         18
         17
         16
         15
         14
         13
         12
         11
Number




         10                                                                                                         Semi-Democracy
                                                                                                                    Oligarchy
         9
                                                                                                                    Democracy
         8
         7
         6
         5
         4
         3
         2
         1
         0
         1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
                                                           Year
                                           Figure 12-1. Cycles of Political Change in Latin America, by Population, 1900-2000

                                 100%


                                 90%


                                 80%


                                 70%
Percent of Regional Population




                                 60%
                                                                                                                                Semi-Democracy
                                 50%                                                                                            Oligarchy
                                                                                                                                Democracy

                                 40%


                                 30%


                                 20%


                                 10%


                                  0%
                                    1900   1910    1920    1930     1940     1950     1960     1970    1980     1990     2000
                                                                             Year
                                           Figure 4. Cycles of Political Change by Region:
                                                      South America, 1900-2000
         10


         9


         8


         7


         6
Number




                                                                                                                    Semi-Democracy
         5                                                                                                          Oligarchy
                                                                                                                    Democracy
         4


         3


         2


         1


         0
         1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
                                                           Year
                                         Figure 5. Cycles of Political Change by Region:
                                      Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, 1900-2000
         9


         8


         7


         6


         5
Number




                                                                                                                    Semi-Democracy
                                                                                                                    Oligarchy
         4                                                                                                          Democracy



         3


         2


         1


         0
         1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
                                                           Year
Transitions, To and Fro
DETERMINANTS OF DEMOCRATIC
TRANSITIONS: DOMESTIC FACTORS


1. Economic Development

2. Social Forces/Class Coalitions

3. Elite Negotiations and “Compacts”

4. “Unsolvable Problems” and the Search for Exits
DETERMINANTS OF DEMOCRATIC
TRANSITIONS: INTERNATIONAL FACTORS


1. Imperialism and Democracy

2. Anti-Communist Crusades

3. Optimism and Uncertainty: The 1990s

4. Now: 9/11 and Its Aftermath
Types of Authoritarian Regime

                ________________Power Structure___________________
                   Personalist                 Institutionalized
Leadership
____________

                Traditional Caudillo or       Collective Junta or
Military        “Man on Horseback”            Bureaucratic-Authoritarian
                                              Regime


                Technocratic State,           One-Party State or
Civilian        Delegative Semi-Democracy,    Corporatist Regime
                or Sultanistic Despotism
    FORMS OF TRANSITION

• Personalist regimes, especially “sultanistic
  despotism” = armed revolution
• Personalist regimes if military = armed
  revolution or military replacement
• Bureaucratic regimes = fissures within ruling
  elite, negotiation with opposition
• One-party regimes = winning elections
           CASE STUDIES:
         CUBA AND MEXICO

• Cuba (1959): armed revolution (against weak
  state, corrupt regime, incompetent military,
  withdrawal of U.S. support)
• Mexico (1910): disputed election + armed
  revolution + incomplete replacement of
  leadership
• Mexico (2000): victory at polls
         DEMISE OF THE PRI
• Decline from hegemony to dominance
• Splits within elite (1980s)
• Economic problems and policies (NAFTA)
• Deterioration of party base, strengthening of
  opposition ( + Zapatista uprising)
• Institutional reforms:
    – 1990-93 piecemeal change
    – 1994-96 independent IFE
 PRI: PREFERENCES + PAYOFFS
Preferences:
• “The PRI prefers winning to losing and having a submissive
  electoral institute to an independent IFE [and] … prefers the
  Opposition to accept the election results rather than contest
  them because this entails legitimacy costs.”

Payoffs:
• Winning                    + 10
• Creating IFE                - 2
• Fraud                       - 2
• Challenge                   - 4
  OPPOSITION: PREFER + PAYOFFS

Preferences:
• “The Opposition prefers winning to losing; it prefers an
  independent IFE; and it makes its decision to accept or contest
  contingent on the PRI’s choice to create an independent IFE or
  not.”

Payoffs:
• Winning                            + 10
• Independent IFE                    + 2
• Losing/fraud                        - 4
• Contesting/Strong IFE               - 2
• Contesting/Submissive IFE           +2
Caveats, Causes,
  and Codas
               Caveat No. 1
• On the importance of defining terms:

  – Electoral democracy (Smith + others)
  – Liberal democracy (Smith + others) ~ Robert Dahl
    democracy
  – Illiberal democracy (Smith + Zakaria)
  – Nondemocracy (Smith) = Authoritarianism
               Caveat No. 2
• On choice of terms:
  – “Wave” vs. “cycle”
  – Implicit causal mechanisms


• On Latin America in world context:
  – Understanding pre-1950s
  – Singular profile among developing areas
  – Roles of ideology/culture
               Caveat No. 3
• “A weak state is a weak democracy”

• Taming of democracy vs. incompetent
  governance

• Democracy by permission

• And then: the rise of the “new left”
                             Caveat No. 4

Outcomes of Political Transitions, 1900-2000

                 1900-1939      1940-1977   1978-2000   1900-2000
                 ___ %___       ___%____    ___ %___    ___%____
Outcome____

 Autocracy         45             47           17         39
 Oligarchy         36              6            --        15
 Semidemocracy     11             20           40         22
 Democracy          9             27           43         24

N transitions      56             64           35        155