IOWA POLL RESULTS – MAY 2006 The Research 2000 Iowa Poll was conducted from May 20 through May 22, 2006. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county. The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation. NOTE: There was an over sample conducted among likely Democratic primary voters. The margin for error is plus or minus 5%.
SAMPLE FIGURE: Men Women 284 316 (48%) (52%) (30%) (31%) (39%)
Democrats 180 Republicans 186 Independents/Other 234
VILSACK JOB PERFORMANCE: QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of Tom Vilsack as Governor; excellent, good, only fair, or poor? EXCELLENT GOOD ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 10% 9% 11% 18% 2% 10% 44% 41% 47% 58% 27% 47% FAIR 37% 40% 34% 21% 59% 32% POOR 8% 9% 7% 2% 12% 9% NOT SURE 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
2006 GOVERNOR RACE: I am going to list the names of a few individuals who are active in public life. After I mention each one, I would simply like for you to tell me if you recognize that individual. If you do recognize the individual, I will then ask you if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that individual. A. The first name is ________. Do you recognize that name? B. (IF YES) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______? FAV Jim Nussle Chet Culver Michael Blouin Ed Fallon 54% 53% 44% 38% UNFAV 31% 25% 26% 28% NO OPINION 15% 22% 30% 34%
QUESTION: If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between, Chet Culver, the Democrat, and Jim Nussle, the Republican? CULVER 49% NUSSLE 41% UNDECIDED 10%
QUESTION: If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between, Michael Blouin, the Democrat, and Jim Nussle, the Republican? NUSSLE BLOUIN UNDECIDED 42% 39% 19%
QUESTION: If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between, Ed Fallon, the Democrat, and Jim Nussle, the Republican? NUSSLE 46% FALLON 35% UNDECIDED 19%
DEMOCRATIC SECTION ONLY (400 PRIMARY VOTES – margin for error is 5%) QUIESTION: If you were voting today for the Democratic nominee for Governor, which of the following would you vote for? (ROTATED): ALL Chet Culver Michael Blouin Ed Fallon Undecided (NOT READ) 38% 25% 20% 17% MEN 40% 29% 17% 14% WOMEN 36% 21% 23% 20%
BUSH JOB PERFORMANCE: QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of George W. Bush as President; excellent, good, only fair, or poor? EXCELLENT GOOD ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 3% 3% 3% 1% 7% 3% 26% 28% 24% 7% 46% 25% FAIR 58% 57% 59% 79% 34% 61% POOR 11% 10% 12% 13% 8% 11% NOT SURE 2% 2% 2% 5% -
GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL RACES: QUESTION: Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress this year? DEMOCRATS 48% REPUBLICANS 36% NOT SURE 16%
QUESTION: How important do you consider the issue of illegal immigration, in light of this fall’s congressional elections? VERY ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 51% 52% 50% 48% 54% 51% IMPT 32% 33% 31% 32% 33% 31% NOT VERY 15% 13% 17% 18% 12% 15% NOT AT ALL 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% NS 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2%
QUESTION: To control illegal immigration into the United States, do you think it is more important to more strictly patrol US borders or to create ways for immigrant workers to enter the US legally, such as a guest worker program? BORDERS ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 48% 53% 43% 45% 51% 48% GUEST 29% 27% 31% 33% 23% 30% BOTH 19% 17% 21% 22% 15% 20% NOT SURE 4% 3% 5% 11% 2%
QUESTION: Should illegal immigrants already in the United States be allowed to apply for legal status if they learn English and pay taxes and fines amounting to $2,000? YES ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 68% 66% 70% 68% 67% 69% NO 21% 24% 18% 20% 22% 21% NOT SURE 11% 10% 12% 12% 11% 10%
QUESTION: Some say illegal immigrants take jobs away from legal residents. Others say illegal immigrants take jobs that legal residents don’t want. Which most closely reflects your view? WANT DON’T NOT SURE ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 19% 21% 17% 18% 20% 19% 63% 62% 64% 64% 62% 63% 18% 17% 19% 18% 18% 18%
QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose stationing six thousand National Guard troops at the U.S./Mexican border? FAVOR ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 58% 61% 55% 48% 74% 53% OPPOSE 30% 28% 32% 37% 19% 33% NOT SURE 12% 11% 13% 15% 7% 14%
DOMESTIC SPYING: QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of allowing the federal government to monitor telephone calls of Americans on a regular basis as way of stopping terrorism? APPROVE ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 28% 30% 26% 17% 41% 26% DISAAPROVE 63% 62% 64% 72% 54% 64% NOT SURE 9% 8% 10% 11% 5% 10%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of allowing the federal government to collect telephone records of Americans on a regular basis as way of stopping terrorism? APPROVE ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 52% 54% 50% 34% 72% 50% DISAAPROVE 45% 44% 46% 64% 28% 44% NOT SURE 3% 2% 4% 2% 6%
QUESTION: Do you believe President Bush when he says that the government is only monitoring the telephone conversations of suspected terrorists? YES ALL MEN WOMEN DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS INDEPENDENTS 44% 47% 41% 10% 84% 38% NO 41% 40% 42% 76% 7% 41% NOT SURE 15% 13% 17% 14% 9% 21%