Impact of Projected Prices On Low-Income Energy Bills for

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					  Impact of Projected Prices On
Low-Income Energy Bills for 2006

      EIA STEO for September, 2005
                  and
        RECS for 2001 data bases
SHORT-TERM MARKET CONDITIONS
       SUPPLY                       DEMAND
• Inventories at or above     • Normal weather will
  average levels for all        increase demand
  major fuels                 • Consumers of fuel and
• Imports of fuel oil and       propane now compete
  propane are making up         with European demand
  for Katrina and Rita        • Natural gas demand is
• Natural Gas shortfalls in     highly dependent on
  hurricane-related             industrial and power
  production are hard to        generation growth
  replace
         RATE OF INCREASE IN RESIDENTIAL ENERGY PRICES
                         BY FUEL TYPE
                                                           Since 1992
                                                          (Nominal dollars)


        $25.00

        $20.00

        $15.00

        $10.00

          $5.00

          $0.00
                   92

                   93

                   94

                   95

                   96

                   97

                   98

                   99

                   00

                   01

                   02

                   03

                   04

                   05

                   06
                19

                19

                19

                19

                19

                19

                19

                19

                20

                20

                20

                20

                20

                20

                20
               Natural Gas (mcf)                      Fuel Oil (10 gallons)                   Electricity (100 kWh)
               Inflation ($5) 5.00                    Income

Sources: DOE/EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2005, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census
        RATE OF INCREASE IN HEATING BILLS FOR LOW-
            INCOME HOUSEHOLDS BY FUEL TYPE
                                                   Since 2001

  120.0%
                                                                                        113.6%

  100.0%

    80.0%

    60.0%                                                       60.7%
                                                                                        52.7%
                                                                                        43.6%
    40.0%                        38.2%


    20.0%                                                   9.5%
                               4.6%                                                     9.4%
                                                                4.9%
      0.0%                 -0.7%                             -4.1%
                              -2.3%
                             2004                           2005                     2006
   -20.0%

                            Natural Gas               Propane           Fuel Oil   Electricity

Source: DOE/EIA Short Term Energy Outlook, September 2005
        PRIMARY HEATING FUEL FOR LOW-INCOME
                    HOUSEHOLDS
         Percent Of Households At Or Below 150% of Poverty By Region

              80.0%
              70.0%
              60.0%
              50.0%
              40.0%
              30.0%
              20.0%
              10.0%
               0.0%
                             U.S.          Northeast        Midwest     South   West
           Natural Gas      53.4%            59.1%           79.6%      42.2%   56.7%
           Propane           5.4%            0.4%            11.4%      6.4%    3.7%
           Fuel Oil          6.0%            26.2%               6.5%   1.3%    0.0%
           Electricity      35.2%            14.4%               2.4%   50.1%   39.6%


Source: DOE/EIA Residential Energy Consumption Survey for 2001
      EXPECTED EXPENDITURES FOR 2005-2006
             Low-Income Households
                                    By Primary Heating Fuel

       $3,000
                                                           $2,576
       $2,500
                                         $2,028
       $2,000            $1,770
                                                  $1,354
       $1,500
                                  $971
                                                                           $1,129   Heating/Cooling
                  $872
       $1,000                                                                       Total Bill
                                                                    $414
         $500
            $0
                   Natural        Propane          Fuel Oil Electricity
                    Gas


Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS
           DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-INCOME EXPENDITURES
        FOR HOUSEHOLDS HEATING WITH GAS IN THE MIDWEST
                                                                     FY 2006
        Number of Households
           ,
         1200000



         1000000



          800000



          600000



          400000



          200000                                                                                                Std. Dev = 1322.18
                                                                                                                Mean = 2075.6

                   0                                                                                            N = 3301813.00

                       750.0            2750.0            4750.0            6750.0            8750.0            Median= 1882.5
                               1750.0            3750.0            5750.0            7750.0            9750.0
                               Total Residential Energy Expenditures In Dollars
                       SUMWGT06

                       Cases weighted by NWEIGHT

Source: ORNL Tabulation
 AGGREGATE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY EXPENDITURES
        BY LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
                    AT OR BELOW 150% OF POVERTY LEVEL


                                By Primary Heating Fuel
Millions of Dollars
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000                                                          Fuel Oil
$25,000                                                          Nautral Gas
$20,000                                                          Propane
$15,000                                                          Electricity
$10,000
 $5,000
      $0
        2001                 2004                2005     2006


SOURCE: ORNL TABULATION BASED ON EIA STEO AND RECS
       PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY
    EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
               By Primary Heating Fuel
                                               NORTHEAST

  $3,000

  $2,500

  $2,000

  $1,500

  $1,000

     $500

        $0          Natural Gas                Fuel Oil    Electricity
       2001           $1,490                   $1,577       $1,161
       2004           $1,354                   $1,907       $1,139
       2005           $1,413                   $2,133       $1,152
       2006           $1,746                   $2,559       $1,202


Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS
PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES
        FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
             By Primary Heating Fuel
                                               NORTHEAST

  $1,400
  $1,200
  $1,000
     $800
     $600
     $400
     $200
        $0          Natural Gas                Fuel Oil    Electricity
       2001            $719                     $598         $547
       2004            $634                     $853         $534
       2005            $675                    $1,012        $537
       2006            $928                    $1,323        $566


Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS
         PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY
      EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
                 By Primary Heating Fuel
                                                 MIDWEST

       $3,000

       $2,500

       $2,000

       $1,500

       $1,000

         $500

            $0      Natural Gas        Propane       Fuel Oil   Electricity
            2001      $1,361            $1,757       $1,344       $869
            2004      $1,472            $2,138       $1,597       $867
            2005      $1,553            $2,219       $1,760       $868
            2006      $2,076            $2,593       $2,107       $904



Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS
  PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES
          FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
               By Primary Heating Fuel
                                                 MIDWEST

       $1,600
       $1,400
       $1,200
       $1,000
         $800
         $600
         $400
         $200
            $0      Natural Gas        Propane       Fuel Oil   Electricity
            2001       $674             $829          $592        $424
            2004       $749             $1,085        $805        $408
            2005       $811             $1,146        $956        $405
            2006      $1,244            $1,477       $1,287       $432



Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS
         PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY
      EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
                 By Primary Heating Fuel
                                                 SOUTH

       $4,000
       $3,500
       $3,000
       $2,500
       $2,000
       $1,500
       $1,000
         $500
            $0       Natural Gas       Propane      Fuel Oil   Electricity
            2001       $1,366           $1,411      $2,561      $1,134
            2004       $1,482           $1,413      $2,944      $1,199
            2005       $1,520           $1,441      $3,006      $1,207
            2006       $1,926           $1,681      $3,709      $1,334



Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS
  PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES
          FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
               By Primary Heating Fuel
                                                 SOUTH

       $2,000


       $1,500


       $1,000


         $500


            $0       Natural Gas       Propane      Fuel Oil   Electricity
            2001        $595            $582        $1,024       $441
            2004        $604            $483        $1,221       $444
            2005        $607            $481        $1,214       $428
            2006        $886            $661        $1,766       $504



Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS
         PROJECTED TOTAL RESIDENTIAL ENERGY
      EXPENDITURES FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
                 By Primary Heating Fuel
                                                  WEST

       $2,000


       $1,500


       $1,000


          $500


             $0        Natural Gas             Propane   Electricity
            2001         $1,049                $1,602      $688
            2004         $1,033                $1,607      $663
            2005         $1,090                $1,720      $681
            2006         $1,273                $1,948      $723



Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS
  PROJECTED HEATING AND COOLING EXPENDITURES
          FOR LOW-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
               By Primary Heating Fuel
                                                  WEST

       $1,000

          $800

          $600

          $400

          $200

             $0        Natural Gas             Propane   Electricity
            2001          $321                  $658       $238
            2004          $282                  $594       $204
            2005          $317                  $673       $214
            2006          $434                  $851       $232



Source: ORNL Tabulation from EIA STEO & RECS
Three-Month Forecast
October through December




SOURCE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
   Three-Month Forecast
   January through March




SOURCE: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
            HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS
                    COMMODITY PRICE
                    Price Trend For January 06 Futures Contract




Source: Wall Street Journal, 10/6/05
        HISTORY OF MIDWINTER NATURAL GAS
                COMMODITY PRICE
                 Price Trend For January 07 Futures Contract




Source: Wall Street Journal, 10/6/05