Reliability Analysis

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Reliability Analysis Powered By Docstoc
					Power Transmission and Distribution

    Probabilistic Reliability Analysis
    Supporting Distribution Network Expansion

                     Klaus Schilling
Overview

      Introduction
      System Modelling and Data
      Study Results
      Summary




IEE RTDN 2005, London              PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   2
Aspects Influencing System Reliability
in Liberalized Markets



      Reduced               Rising             Increasing
     maintenance         component age       component load




                          Component
                          availability
   Staff reduction,                             Simplified
  loss of know how                           network structure

                        System reliability


                                                 [Schwan et al., 2003]


IEE RTDN 2005, London                              PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   3
General Sequence of a Reliability Analysis

                            Past system performance

                                 Observable part


                                               Equipment
                        Failure models
                                             reliability data


                              Reliability calculation



                                 Reliability indices



                             Evaluation / Prognosis

                                            Comparison

                                 Observable part

                           Future system performance

IEE RTDN 2005, London                                           PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   4
SINCAL
Siemens Network Calculation
                                               • Loadflow
                                               • Short-Circuit
                                               • Dimensioning of LV Networks
                                               • Optimal Branching
                                               • Multiple Fault
                                               • Harmonics
                                               • Ripple Control
                                               • Stability
                                               • ElectromagneticTransients
                                               • Eigenvalues / Modal Analysis
                                               • Optimal Loadflow
                                               • Load Profile Calculation
                                               • Load Development
                                               • Contingency Analysis
                                               • Distance Protection
                                               • Over Current Time Protection
                                               • Simulation of Relay Tripping
                                               • Motor Starting
                                               • Line Constants
                                               • Reliability
For analysis and planning purposes in all network levels with
integrated data base and schematic or topological graphics
IEE RTDN 2005, London                                    PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   5
     Details on Reliability Calculation


Generation of a failure combination list     Determination
                                           through probability
                                                or order
 Examination of a failure combination

         Network status analysis              AC load flow

 Identification of supply interruptions
                                           Supply restoration
                                              strategies
     Measures for the rectifying of
        supply interruptions

    Statistical recording of results
                                               Reliability
                                                Indices

    IEE RTDN 2005, London                          PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   6
Models and Data

      Clear boundary of the system and components
      Network model which corresponds to operation
           Load flow / short-circuit model
           Load model
           Protection model

      Models of failure events
           Status of operating equipment
           Failure models
           Failure sequence
           Supply restoration models



IEE RTDN 2005, London                         PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   7
Failure Models

    Independent single failure (IS)
          Failure of one single component
    Common-Mode failure (CM)
          Simultaneous failure of several components due to a
          common cause
    Multiple earth faults with multiple tripping (ME)
          Independent failure of two components in network with
          resonant earthing on the bases of an existing earth fault
    Malfunction of protection device (PM)
          Stochastic secondary failure due to failure of the primary
          protection and tripping of the backup protection device
    Unnecessary protection operation (UP)
          Stochastic secondary failure due to non-selective tripping
          of the protection device

IEE RTDN 2005, London                                    PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   8
Reliability Indices of the Components
Example of the Distribution System
                                        Outage Models
        Components               IS      ME      PM          UP
                           A   0.0189   0.013
  Cable                    B   900      804       60       60
                           C            0.0033    0.009    0.00013
                           A   0.0828   0.003
  Overhead line            B   240      240       60       60
                           C            0.00077   0.009    0.00013
                           A   0.0163
  Transformer
                           B   1145               9        43
  110/20 kV                C                      0.005    0.00016
                           A   0.0052   0.0007
  Bus bar                  B   330      186       60       60
                           C            0.0041    0.009    0.00013
                           A   0.0002
  Outgoing Feeder          B   192
                           C
                           A   0.0001                IS:    Independent single failure
  Receiving Feeder         B   192
                           C                         ME:    Multiple earth fault
  Distribution             A   0.006    0.0002       PM:    Protection malfunction
  substation
                           B   390      900          UP:    Unnecessary protection
                           C            0.0019
                                                            operation

                        A: Expected value of failure frequency in yr-1 bzw. km-1yr-1
                        B: Expected value of outage duration in min.
                        C: Expected value of conditional probability of failure
IEE RTDN 2005, London                                                    PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   9
Probabilistic Reliability Indices



  Symbol Index                                                   Unit

      Fi          Frequency of supply interruptions              1/yr

      Ti          Average duration of supply interruptions       h
                  Probability of supply interruptions or         1 or
      Qi
                  unavailability                                 min/yr
      Pi          (Cumulative) Interrupted power                 MVA/yr

      Ei          (Cumulative) Energy not served in time         MVAh/yr

      Ci          (Cumulative) Cost of interruptions             € / yr


                                Expected values

IEE RTDN 2005, London                                        PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   10
SINCAL Reliability
Input and Output Data in Network Diagram




IEE RTDN 2005, London                PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   11
Study Task

 A German 110 kV subtransmission system feeding
 some 20 kV distribution networks should be
 analysed with special focus on:

     The impact of the 110 kV network and the 20 kV structure on
      the reliability indices of the medium voltage customers

     The comparison of the present reliability level of different
      distribution networks with benchmarks

     The comparison of scenarios of network expansion with
      respect to investment costs and reliability



IEE RTDN 2005, London                                   PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   12
110 kV Subtransmission Network and Supply Area



                                       F

                                   J
                                                   E

                        K                              D

                               H

                                                   C
                                       G

                                               B
                        Supply Area                        A
                        110 kV OHL
                        110/20 kV Substation
                        Feeding Substation
IEE RTDN 2005, London                                          PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   13
Boundaries of the 110 kV Network
                                        Transmission
                                           System




                                         EHV / HV




                        110 kV System




                                         HV / MV


                                          Distribution
                                            System

      The infeed from transmission network is 100 % reliable
      The MV networks are modeled as bulk load on the
       20 kV busbar
IEE RTDN 2005, London                                    PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   14
Schematic Diagram of the 110 kV Network

                                E

       F

                                             A
                                C
                            D
                  K
                            J



                        H           G            B




IEE RTDN 2005, London                   PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   15
Reliability Indices of the Existing 110 kV Network
                                  Frequency of Supply Interruptions


                                                       Frequency of Supply Interruptions
  Fi in 1/yr
0,45

0.4
 0,4

0,35

 0,3

0,25

 0,2

0,15

 0,1

0,05

  0                                              Unavailability
       A1 A2  B1
   Qi in min/yr   B     B2   B3   B4   C1   C2   C3
                                                      D
                                                      D1   E1   E2
                                                                     F
                                                                     F1   F2   G1   H1   H2   J1   J2   K1

  18

 16
  16                                                                                     Unavailability
  14

  12

  10

   8

   6

   4

   2
                                       Energy Not Served in Time
   0
  Ei inA1 A2 B1
        MVAh/yr    B    B2   B3   B4   C1   C2   C3
                                                      D
                                                      D1   E1   E2
                                                                     F
                                                                     F1   F2   G1   H1   H2   J1   J2   K1

 4,5

  4
  4
                                                                     Energy Not Served in Time
 3,5

   3

 2,5

   2

 1,5

   1

 0,5

   0
       A1   A2   B1     B2   B3   B4   C1   C2   C3   D1   E1   E2   F1   F2   G1   H1   H2   J1   J2   K1

IEE RTDN 2005, London                                                                     PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   16
Schematic Diagram of the 20 kV Network



                                    E

                                    C




                        G
                            B




IEE RTDN 2005, London                PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   17
Boundaries of the 20 kV Network

                                  Subtransmission
                                      System




                                       HV / MV




                        20 kV System




      The infeed from subtransmission network is 100 % reliable
      All MV backup connections are modeled
      The load is modeled on the MV side of the distribution
       transformer

IEE RTDN 2005, London                                 PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   18
Rural 20 kV Network – Area E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     E3964
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     300.0 MVA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     100.0 p.u.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Gau-Bischofsheim 1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Gau-Bischofsheim 2
                                                                                                                                               Gau-Bischofsheim 4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Gau-Bischofsheim 3




                                                                                                                                               Gau-Bischofsheim 6                                            Gau-Bischofsheim 7                                                Gau-Bischofsheim 9




                                                                                                                                                              HARXH5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      E3960
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      300.0 MVA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      100.0 p.u.




                                                                                                                 Harxheim 4       Harxheim 9                  Harxheim 1                             Harxheim 8                Harxheim 3                                      Harxheim 7                                                                                                                                                                                                      Bodenheim31




                                                                                                                 Mommenheim 15
                                                                                                                                                              Harxheim 6                             Harxheim 2                Harxheim 10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Bodenheim 39                                          Nackenheim 7    Nackenheim 3




                                                                                                                Mommenheim 13                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Loerzweiler 6                                                                    Nackenheim 2                                     Nackenheim 18                                          Nackenheim 17                         Nackenheim 20   Nackenheim 8    Nackenheim 9




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Loerzweiler 5                     Loerzweiler 8
                                                                                Mommenheim 8   Mommenheim 7      Mommenheim 3     Mommenheim 4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nackenheim 16                         Nackenheim 15   Nackenheim 11

                                                                                                                                      Mommenheim 1



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Nackenheim 1/L419                             Nackenheim 1/L414
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             NA02                                          NA01




                                                                                                                 Mommenheim 2                             Mommenheim 6                                                                                                                                                Loerzweiler 2                          Loerzweiler 3   Loerzweiler 7                                                                                                     Nackenheim 1                                                                                                 Nackenheim 22   Nackenheim 13
                                                                                      Mommenheim 12
                                                                                                                                                 Mommenheim 14                                                   Mommenheim 6




                                                                                                                 Mommenheim 5     Mommenheim 9                                                                                                                       MT20201K/KA202020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     MO01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Loerzweiler 1                                                                 NACKH12                                                                         Nackenheim 21                                          Nackenheim 14                         Nackenheim 5




                        E3962
                        300.0 MVA        Selzen 1
                        100.0 p.u.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Mommenheim 10                                                                                                                                   Nackenheim 4                                                                                                                                                 Nackenheim 6




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Schwabsburg 5   Schwabsburg 7                                                                                                                                                                NACKH19




                                                                                                                                                                          Schwabsburg 6/L349
                                                                                                                                                                          SW02




                                                                                                                                                                          Schwabsburg 6/L581
                                                                                                                                                                          SW01
                                                                                                                                                                                     Schwabsburg 6                                                                                                                                                           SWBSB3                            Schwabsburg 1   Schwabsburg 2                                                                                                                          Nierstein 22                          Nierstein 11                    NIERS14




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Schwabsburg 4




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 S

                                                                                                                     DEXHEIM S1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nierstein 32




             Substation E
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             K3178
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nierstein 8                           Nierstein 9

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          DEXHEIM S1/L87
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          DEX05




                                                                                                                                                   DEXHEIM S1/KA123016
                                                                                                                                                   DEX01

                                                                                                                                                                         DEXHEIM S2/L581
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     DEXHEIM S1/KA123017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     DEX03
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DEXHEIM S2/L350
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DEX04
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DEXHEIM S1/KA216032
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DEX06
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nierstein 2
                                                                                                                                                                         DEX02




                                                                                                                       DEXHEIM S2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nierstein 13    Nierstein 25   Nierstein 10                                     Nierstein 3                                            Nierstein 15                          Nierstein 17

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nierstein 2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nierstein 26    Nierstein 7     Nierstein 6    Nierstein 23                                     Nierstein 12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Nierstein 1



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nierstein 1/KA216045
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               NI03




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nierstein 16                                                                                                                                          Nierstein 1/KA216036
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     NI01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Nierstein 33                    Nierstein 18
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Nierstein 1/L432
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               NI04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nierstein 1/KA216041
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        NI02




                                                                                                                                                                                               Dexheim 9                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nierstein 19    Nierstein 20   Nierstein 29                                     Nierstein 5




                                                                   E3961
                                                                   300.0 MVA
                                                                                                                                                              Dexheim 8                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Nierstein 24                                                                                                 Nierstein 4     Nierstein 21
                                                                   100.0 p.u.
                                                                                                      Dexheim 6




                                          Weinolsheim1
                                                                                                                                  Dexheim 10                  Dexheim 2                              Dexheim 1                                                                                                                               Dienheim 9                                                        Oppenheim 32    Oppenheim 30   Oppenheim 17                                     Oppenheim 33




                                     Dalheim 4
                                                                                                                 Dexheim 7                                                                                                                                                                                          Dienheim 1                               Dienheim 4                                        Oppenheim 27                   Oppenheim 21
                                                                                   Dalheim 1


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Oppenheim 1/KA224001
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    OP02




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Oppenheim 1/KA224004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             OP01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dienheim 2                               Dienheim 3      Dienheim 8        Oppenheim 31    Oppenheim 18                                                         Oppenheim 1/KA224003
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    OP03
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Oppenheim 1                                            Oppenheim 4                                           Oppenheim 13    Oppenheim 20




                                     Dalheim 3                                  Dalheim 2      Dalheim 5                                                                                                                                                                       Dienheim 7                           Dienheim 5                               Dienheim 6                                                                       Oppenheim 12                                     Oppenheim 7                                                                                  Oppenheim 11    Oppenheim 5     Oppenheim 10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Oppenheim 26                                     Oppenheim 14                                           Oppenheim 6                           Oppenheim 9     Oppenheim 34    Oppenheim 22




                                                              Guntersblum 25                                     Ludwigshoehe 1   Ludwigshoehe 2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Oppenheim 25   Oppenheim 8                                      Oppenheim 19                                                                                 Oppenheim 23                    Oppenheim 3




                                                                                               Ludwigshoehe 3    Ludwigshoehe 4                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oppenheim 24   Oppenheim 28                                     Oppenheim 29                                                                                 Oppenheim 36




                                                 E3963
                                                 300.0 MVA
                                                 100.0 p.u.




IEE RTDN 2005, London                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   19
Reliability Indices of a Rural 20 kV Network


                          Unavailability
   Qi in min/yr
   140

   120

   100

    80                                     Benchmark Rural Area

    60
                                                       Average
    40

    20

      0
                        Distribution stations



IEE RTDN 2005, London                                 PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   20
Urban 20 kV Network – Area B
                                          GEN_OST




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             OSTHOF 1b                                                                OSTHOF 1a



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      OSTHOF 2


                                                                                                                                                                                                                       MU225K01                                                                                                                                     MU225K06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      RHDUR10


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Rheinduerkheim 22                            Rheinduerkheim 4



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Rheinduerkheim 37


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Klaeranlage                                  Rheinduerkheim 39




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               HE54                        Becker



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rheinduerkheim 28


                                                                                                     Herrnsheim 5
                            Osthofen 21             Herrnsheim 4                                                                                                                                                                               Gottwein                    Elbatainer        Mainzerstr. 1


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rheinduerkheim 21

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Alcoa                                                          MU3/6K17




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Rheinduerkheim 27                                                Rheinduerkheim 6


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Rheinduerkheim 41
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Weton

                                                    Herrnsheim 23             Herrnsheim 20                                  Herrnsheim 6          Herrnsheim 19                                                                                                                                                        Rheinduerkheim 26




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Schaerf

                                                                                                   Herrnsheim 16             Herrnsheim 15         Herrnsheim 17                            Herrnsheim 3                                                                                         Rheinduerkheim 29            Rheinduerkheim 36           Rheinduerkheim 33 Rheinduerkheim 25 Rheinduerkheim 18 Rheinduerkheim 23




                        MT2/101K


                                                                                                                                                                                           Herrnsheim 2                                             Grace                                                  Grace
                                                           Herrnsheim 7                   Krankenhaus 2              Herrnsheim 13         Herrnsheim 14                                                                                                                                                                                        Herrnsheim 26           Herrnsheim 22      Langgewann       Neu 2                                    Rheinduerkheim 24




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      MU1/K138




                                                                                                                                     Paracelsusstr.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Herrnsheim 25


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   MU1/0K26                                                           MU1/K139




                                                                                   Krankenhaus 3                     Krankenhaus 1                                                                                                                                                                      Hollerhecke                                                              Hollerhecke

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                MT465464




                                                                                                                                                                                                                       MU1/0K25




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ELC
                                                                                                                                                   Virchowstr.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Schuch




                                                                                                                                                   Luessen 4
                                                                                             Horchheim 3                                                                                                                                                                   Siwonit             Mueller                  Zwischenpumpwerk                                Procter&Gamble




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Kuebel
                                                                                             Horchheim 4                                          Herrnsheim 21                                                                                                                           Gallborn                 Fischer                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Roehm 5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                MU1/0K03




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            K3269




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Rheingewannweg                                                                                                                                                Roehm 7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         MU1/0K49




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Hafenstr. 2
                                                                                                                                                    Luessen 3                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Worms-Nord
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Herrnsheim 24                     Hornbach                 Kaufland                ARAL                                                                                                                                                    G




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Roehm 3G




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 MU1/0K02
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          MU1/0K50




                                                                                                                                                           Trafoknoten HOLZTR12

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       MU1/0K01
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     UAHH_R2                     UAHH_R1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    HOLZHF B1




             Substation B                                                                                           HOLZHF B2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        MU1/0K05
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      HOLZHF B3



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      HOLZHF A1



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         HOLZHF A2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Mc-Donalds          US-Lager




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Hauptlager
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Luessen 1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Schaeferstr.                                    Luessen 2                                                                                    Pfortenring                                                                  Birkenweg                                                       Walter




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     US-Kaserne                                                      Hafenstr. 1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Duerer Str.                                  Nicolaus-Reuss-Str.                                                                             Triebwagenladung             Luetzowstr.                                                     Raiffeisen




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Heidenhainstr.                                                  Fahrzeug Schaefer




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Erich-Ollenhauer-Str. 2                 Theodor-Heuss-Str.                                                                                                                                                        Post 2                                                          Deuka                                                                                   Wehrzollhaus-Rosengarten1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Wehrzollhaus-Rosengarten

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Erich-Ollenhauer-Str. 1                      Neuhausen                                                                                                                    Krankenhaus                                                     Trumpler




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DRK                                             Eckenbertstr.                                                                                                                                                             Eulenburgstr.                                                   Horn


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            GEN_ROS




                                                                                                                                                  Heppenheimer Str.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ROSENG S1


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Kurfuerstenstr.                              Pfalzneuburgstr.                                                                                                             Mainzerstr. 2                                                   Lokschuppen



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ROSENG S2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Pfrimmanlage
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           MU021K01




                                                                                             Weinsheimer Str. 2                                                                                     Mersch                                                                               Engelmannstr.                                                                                                                                               Hermannstr.                                                     Rhenania




                                                                                             Weinsheimer Str. 3              Zwinglistr.                                          Herrngasse                                                                                                                            Gaustr.                                                                                                                      Kaibel&Sieber                                                   Massa 2




                                                                                             EMF                                                                                                    Adelheidtstr.          Rudolph-Heilgers-Str.                           BIZ                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Worms 188




                                                                                                                                                Donnersberger Str.


                                                                                             Fiwoplast                                                                                                                     Muehlpfad                                                                                    Johann-Hirt-Str.                                                                                                                                                                             Hafen 1




                                                                                             Nutzkauf                                                                             Nievergoltstr.    Konventstr.                                                                                                         Gueterhallenstr.                                                                          Martinsplatz                                                                                       Berliner Ring
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Martinsplatz
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dreihornmuehlgasse




                                                                                                                             Heinrich-Heine-Str                                                     Frauenstr.             Hochheim 2                                      Hochheim 1          Bebelstr.                Liebenauerfeld                                                                                                               Gymnasiumstr.                                                   Messeplatz
                                                                                                                                                             Alzeyer Str.




                                                                                             CEWE-Color                      Pfiffligheim 2                                                        Monsheimerstr.          Pipinweg                                        Knode Str.                                   Bahnhof 2                                                                                                                    Bahnhof                                                         Rheinstr. 2




                                                                                                                                             Droste-Huelshoff-Str.                Hallenbad         P.H.                                       Polizeikaserne                                                           Wasserturm                                                                          Karolingerstr.                           C&A                                                             Kyffhaeusserstr.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Vangionenstr.

                                                                      Rheinmoeve            Niedesheimer Str.                                                                                       Brauereistrasse                            Breiding                                        REA 1                    Koehlerstr.                                                                                                                  Luisenstr.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Vangionenstr.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Langenbach               Duerkheimer Str.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     W.-Leuschner-Str.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Renolit

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Kirschgartenweg                                                                     Kaiserpassage                            Sparkasse 1

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Schildweg
                                                                                        Bobenheimer Str.              Rohrlache 1                     Rohrlache 1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Laubscher


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Weinsheimer Str. 1                                                                                                                                            Martinsgasse        Lutherplatz




                                                                                                                                                                     Maria-Muenster-Bach                                                       Cornelius-Heyl-Str.                             Im Winkel                Sophienplatz       Mang                                            Sparkasse 2                                               Woolworth



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Kieskran



                                                                                                                             Flugplatz             Rohrlache 2                                                                                                                                 Stamm                    Knappenstr.                                                        Festhaus                                                  Ludwigsplatz



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Rheinbeton



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Speyerer Str.            Hochstr.                                                                                 Römerstr.               Römerstr.




                                                                                                                             Schoepfwerk           Landgraben                     Aulweg            Esbella                                    REA 2                                           Kiefel                                           Gutenbergstr.           Verwaltung                          Kaufhof              Rheinstr. 1                                                          Rhenania 2


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Delta 1



                                                                                                                             Zoo                                                                                                                                                               Kani                     Rosengasse                                                                          Cornelianum          Buergerturm

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        DELTA1.B




                                                                                                                             Altbach                                                                                                                                                           Katterloch               Bundeswehr              Andreasring             Andreasstr.                                              Neu                 Sophienstift                                     Delta 2




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Forestone               Hochstift                                  Valckenberg      Volksbank            Philosophenstr.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Gartenstr.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Stadtwerke                                     Nibelungen-Center       Pankratiusgasse     Koehlstr.            Massa
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Speyerer Str.2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          MU1/0K07



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        MU1/0K06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Werk II_1B                                      Werk II_1A




IEE RTDN 2005, London                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   21
Reliability Indices of a Urban 20 kV Network


                          Unavailability
   Qi in min/yr
   80

   70

   60

   50

   40                                 Benchmark Urban Area

   30                                             Average
   20

   10

    0
                        Distribution stations



IEE RTDN 2005, London                               PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   22
Improvement of Substation B


 Substation B
 110 kV



                                         Substation A
    20 kV


            City   Industry                               Existing Substation B




 Substation B
 110 kV
                                                           Variant
                                 T4
                                                           „Switchgear“
                                           Substation A
    20 kV


            City   Industry   Industry

IEE RTDN 2005, London                                             PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   23
Improvement of Substation B
Reinforcement of Subtransmission Network


 Substation B
                                                       Variant
 110 kV


                                 T4
                                                       „Overhead Line“
                                        Substation A
   20 kV


           City   Industry   Industry




 Substation B
 110 kV
                                                       Variant
                                 T4                    „Underground Cable“
                                        Substation A
   20 kV


           City   Industry   Industry

IEE RTDN 2005, London                                        PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   24
Comparison of Reliability Indices and
Investment Costs


 120%

                Frequency   Unavailability   Energy not served in time       Costs
 100%


  80%


  60%


  40%


  20%


   0%
                   As Is       Switchgear      Overhead line     Underground cable




IEE RTDN 2005, London                                              PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   25
Significance of Probabilistic Reliability Analysis

       Additional tool for planning and operation
       Support and addition to (n-1) criterion
       Important tool in deregulated networks
                  Comparison of equal (n-1) variants
                   (e. g. switchgear concept)
                  Support for network restructuring
                  Quality level for customer
                  Basis for risk assessment
                  Maintenance management



IEE RTDN 2005, London                                   PTD SE PT/Schi 02/05   26