Are Central Washington Labor Markets Moving in the Right Direction?
2006 Economic Outlook Conference, Central Washington University October 20, 2006
Donald W. Meseck, Regional Labor Economist Labor Market and Economic Analysis Branch, Washington State Employment Security Department (Out-stationed at Central Washington University, Ellensburg, WA) Telephone: (509) 963-2606, FAX (509) 963-1992 E-mail: dmeseck@esd.wa.gov
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Counties Served by Regional Labor Economist for Central Washington
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How to Access/Receive Local Economic Reports • County-level economic reports are posted on our Workforce Explorer Homepage at: http//www.workforceexplorer.com/. Examples of reports currently posted:
– The Yakima Labor Economy (September 2006) – The Chelan and Douglas Counties Labor Economy (August 2006) – Taxable Sales, Employment, and Wage Trends in Kittitas County’s Retail Trade Sector (July 20, 2006)
• Or. . . Receive these reports via e-mail
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Part 1: Current (Sep 05-Sep 06) Unemployment Rates in Central Washington
Figure 1-A UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN CHELAN AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES AND IN WASHINGTON FROM JANUARY 2005 TO SEPTEMBER 2006 (Prepared October 17, 2006)
9.0% 8.0%
In Che lan and Douglas Countie s: 2,520 Une mploye d in Se pte mbe r 2005 2,580 Une mploye d in Se pte mbe r 2006
Unemployment Rate
7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006-CD
2005-CD
2006-WA
2005-WA
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Part 1: Current (Sep 05-Sep 06) Unemployment Rates in Central Washington
Figure 1-B UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN GRANT COUNTY AND IN WASHINGTON FROM JANUARY 2005 TO SEPTEMBER 2006 (Prepared October 17, 2006)
12.0%
In Grant County: 2,010 Une mploye d in Se pte mbe r 2005 1,980 Une mploye d in Se pte mbe r 2006
Unemployment Rate
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006-GR
2005-GR
2006-WA
5 2005-WA
Part 1: Current (Sep 05-Sep 06) Unemployment Rates in Central Washington
Figure 1-C UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN KITTITAS COUNTY AND IN WASHINGTON FROM JANUARY 2004 TO SEPTEMBER 2006 (Prepared October 17, 2006)
8.0% In Kittitas County: 800 Une mploye d in Se pte mbe r 2005 810 Une mploye d in Se pte mbe r 2006
Unemployment Rate
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0% Jan Fe b M ar Apr M ay Jun Jul Aug Se p Oct Nov De c
2006-KI
2005-KI
2006-WA
2005-WA 6
Part 1: Current (Sep 05-Sep 06) Unemployment Rates in Central Washington
Figure 1-D UNEMPLOYMENT RATES IN YAKIMA COUNTY AND IN WASHINGTON FROM JANUARY 2005 TO SEPTEMBER 2006 (Prepared October 17, 2006) 12.0%
In Yakima County: 6,500 Une mploye d in Se pte mbe r 2005 6,800 Une mploye d in Se pte mbe r 2006
Unemployment Rate
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006-YA
2005-YA
2006-WA
2005-WA
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Part 2: Nonagricultural Employment Changes for Major Industries in 2005
TABLE 2-A: CHELAN AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES: MAJOR NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES DURING 2005
INDUSTRY Federal Government Manufacturing Retail Trade Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Total Nonagricultural Educational and Health Services Local Government JOB CHANGE 100 200 300 100 1,200 100 100 PERCENT CHANGE 11.1% 9.1% 5.5% 3.8% 3.3% 1.9% 1.6%
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Part 2: Nonagricultural Employment Changes for Major Industries in 2005
TABLE 2-B: GRANT COUNTY: MAJOR NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES DURING 2005
INDUSTRY Durable Goods Manufacturing Professional and Business Svcs Health Services and Social Assistance Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Local Government Education Retail Trade Total Nonagricultural Other Local Government Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing JOB CHANGE 230 90 120 40 70 80 560 -70 -90 PERCENT CHANGE 17.7% 6.3% 5.1% 3.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.3% -2.2% -3.4%
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Part 2: Nonagricultural Employment Changes for Major Industries in 2005
TABLE 2-C: KITTITAS COUNTY: MAJOR NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES DURING 2005
INDUSTRY Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Accommodation and Food Services State and Local Government Total Nonagricultural Retail Trade Health Services and Social Assistance Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Manufacturing Wholesale Trade JOB CHANGE 140 40 100 250 30 -20 -20 -40 -40 PERCENT CHANGE 14.6% 2.5% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% -2.4% -5.4% -6.3% -8.7%
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Part 2: Nonagricultural Employment Changes for Major Industries in 2005
TABLE 2-D: YAKIMA COUNTY: MAJOR NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES DURING 2005
INDUSTRY Natural Resources, Mining, and Construction Wholesale Trade Leisure and Hospitality Health Services Local Government Total Nonagricultural Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Durable Goods Manufacturing JOB CHANGE 200 200 300 400 300 800 100 -200 -300 PERCENT CHANGE 5.9% 5.0% 4.7% 3.6% 2.4% 1.1% 1.1% -6.9% -7.0%
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Part 2: Nonagricultural Employment Changes for Major Industries in 2005
TABLE 2-E: JOB GROWTH/LOSS RATES ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE AND IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON DURING 2005
AREA Chelan and Douglas Counties Washington State Grant County Kittitas County Yakima County JOB CHANGE 1,200 76,600 560 250 800 PERCENT CHANGE 3.3% 2.8% 2.3% 1.9% 1.1%
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Part 3: Employment Trends from 2002-05 and Projections for 2006
Figure 3-A WASHINGTON STATE: TOTAL NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT FROM JANUARY 2004 TO DECEMBER 2006 (PROJECTED) (Prepared October 18, 2006)
Employment (in Thousands)
2,950 2,900 2,850 2,800 2,750 2,700 2,650 2,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2006
2005
2004
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Part 3: Employment Trends from 2002-05 and Projections for 2006
Figure 3-B WASHINGTON & CHELAN AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES: NONAG EMPLOYMENT CHANGES DURING 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, AND 2006 (PROJECTED) (Prepared October 18, 2006) 4.0% 3.0%
Employment Changes (in Percent)
2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0%
2006 Figures are Projected
2001-2002 1.1% -1.6%
2002-2003 0.8% 0.2%
2003-2004 2.4% 1.6%
2004-2005 3.2% 2.8%
2005-2006 2.3% 2.9%
Chelan and Douglas Counties Washington
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Part 3: Employment Trends from 2002-05 and Projections for 2006
Figure 3-C WASHINGTON & GRANT COUNTY: NONAG EMPLOYMENT CHANGES DURING 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, AND 2006 (PROJECTED) (Prepared October 18, 2006) 3.0%
2.0%
Employment Changes (in Percent)
1.0%
0.0%
2006 Figures are Projected
-1.0%
-2.0% Grant County Washington
2001-2002 -0.6% -1.6%
2002-2003 0.7% 0.2%
2003-2004 0.0% 1.6%
2004-2005 2.3% 2.8%
2005-2006 2.5% 2.9%
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Part 3: Employment Trends from 2002-05 and Projections for 2006
Figure 3-D WASHINGTON & KITTITAS COUNTY: NONAG EMPLOYMENT CHANGES DURING 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, AND 2006 (PROJECTED) (Prepared October 18, 2006) 3.0%
2.0%
Employment Changes (in Percent)
1.0%
0.0%
2006 Figures are Projected
-1.0%
-2.0% Kittitas County Washington
2001-2002 2.8% -1.6%
2002-2003 2.5% 0.2%
2003-2004 0.8% 1.6%
2004-2005 1.9% 2.8%
2005-2006 2.3% 2.9%
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Part 3: Employment Trends from 2002-05 and Projections for 2006
Figure 3-E WASHINGTON & YAKIMA COUNTY: NONAG EMPLOYMENT CHANGES DURING 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, AND 2006 (PROJECTED) (Prepared October 18, 2006) 3.0%
2.0%
Employment Changes (in Percent)
1.0%
0.0%
2006 Figures are Projected
-1.0%
-2.0% Yakima County Washington
2001-2002 -0.3% -1.6%
2002-2003 1.1% 0.2%
2003-2004 0.3% 1.6%
2004-2005 1.1% 2.8%
2005-2006 1.9% 2.9%
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Are Central Washington Labor Markets Moving in the Right Direction? 2006 Economic Outlook Conference, Central Washington University October 20, 2006
CONCLUSIONS
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