Careers Conference 2009
2006-2016 LONG-TERM EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK
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Presenter: Victoria Udalova, Economist Office of Economic Advisors WI Department of Workforce Development
January 26, 2009
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Today We Will Talk About…
Aging Population
Long-Term Employment Outlook:
Career Clusters (growth & openings)
Fastest Growing Occupations
Education & Training
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Wisconsin vs. U.S.
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If only it was that easy…
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Population & Labor Force in U.S.
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
Population
150,000,000
Labor Force
100,000,000
50,000,000 1960
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1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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Note: Shaded region represents projected period. Source: Office of Economic Advisors’ analysis of data from U.S. Bureau of Labor
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Population & Labor Force in WI
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
Population Labor Force
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000 1960
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1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
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Note: Shaded region represents projected period. Source: Office of Economic Advisors’ analysis of data from WI Department of Administration Demographic Services Center, U.S. Census Bureau, and U.S. Bureau of Labor
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Wisconsin’s Potential Labor Force “Entrants” & “Exiters”
18 yr olds 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 65 yr olds
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Source: WI Department of Administration, Demographic Services Center
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How Will Aging Population Affect Labor Market?
Aging Population
Baby-Boomers Retire
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Supply of Workers Shrinks
January 26, 2009
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Employers won’t be as fortunate as in the past…
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How to Deal With This Issue?
Increase Skills & Education Change in demand for goods
Productivity Increases
“More with Less” Capital Intensity Rise
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Wages Rise
January 26, 2009
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Fundamental Questions of Projections
Looking back, how have economic, technological, demographic, social, and political forces shaped employment? How will these forces change in the future? What are the consequences of these changes for future employment levels?
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Another Fundamental Question of Projections
Are you willing to be wrong?
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Inputs
DATA Historic employment National projections Explanatory variables KNOWLEDGE AND INSIGHT Victoria OEA Staff Panel Members US Bureau of Labor Statistics Staff Other States’ Projections Staff
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But even in the best of circumstances our knowledge is incomplete …
Shocks New, previously unknown, industries and occupations may appear Industries and occupations that exist elsewhere, but not previously in Wisconsin, may appear
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WI Nonfarm Wage and Salary Employment, 1939-2007, and Projected 2016
2016 Projection
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Note: Shaded regions represent recessions as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Employment figures on this graph do not include self-employed, unpaid family workers, and private households. Source: Current Employment Statistics (CES) & Office of Economic Advisors, WI Projections 2006-2016
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U.S. & WI Employment Growth Rate by Clusters, 2006-2016
IT Health Science STEM Education & Training Law, Public Safety, & Security Human Service Hospitality & Tourism Finance Total, All Occupations
8.0% 7.0% 8.4% 9.2% 11.7% 10.3% 11.4% 10.3% 10.4% 13.8% 11.8% 11.4% 14.0% 20.9% 15.4% 18.4% 16.9% 14.5%
U.S. WISCONSIN
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
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Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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U.S. & WI Employment Growth Rate by Clusters, 2006-2016 (continued)
Total, All Occupations Architecture & Construction Business, Mgmt & Administration Government & Public Admin. Transportation & Logistics Agriculture & Natural Resource Marketing Sales & Service Arts, A/V, & Communications Manufacturing
2.1% 4.7% 2.9% 0.7% 2.3% 6.0% 8.1% 5.0% 7.7% 6.0% 7.6% 5.8% 5.7% 10.4% 8.0% 10.3% 8.3% 9.1%
U.S. WISCONSIN
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
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Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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U.S. Annual Job Openings by Clusters, 2006-16
Business, Mgmt & Administration Health Science Marketing Sales & Service Hospitality & Tourism Agriculture & Natural Resource Transportation & Logistics Education & Training
478,100 399,400 371,200 776,300 676,200 601,400 902,000
New Jobs Replacements
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Architecture & Construction
0 200,000
344,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
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Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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U.S. Annual Job Openings by Clusters, 2006-16 (continued)
Human Service Manufacturing Finance Law, Public Safety, & Security IT STEM Government & Public Admin.
321,900 246,300 212,200 187,800 180,000 174,500 169,300 130,400 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
New Jobs Replacements
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Arts, A/V, & Communications
January 26, 2009
Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS & 2006-16 WI Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Replacement Needs Will Increase in the Future
Net replacement openings need to be considered when exploring the future prospects of any occupation. The need to fill replacement openings will only increase over the next decade as the first wave of baby boomers begin to retire.
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When I grow up, I’m going to be an electrical engineer and when that field is down, I’m going to go into real estate and when that slows down, I’m going to go into…”
The economy is shifting to a knowledge-based work
where continuous retraining throughout careers will become even more important than the initial training
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when entering the workforce.
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Today Presentation’s Focus Clusters…
Marketing:
Marketing Mgmt Professional Sales Merchandising Marketing Communications Marketing Research
Business, Mgmt & Administration
General Mgmt
Business Information Mgmt
Human Resources Mgmt Operations Mgmt Administrative Support
IT:
Network Systems Information Support & Services Web & Digital Communications
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STEM:
Engineering & Technology Science & Math
Programming & Software Dev.
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Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations
2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook
Occupational Title Market Research Analysts Meeting & Convention Planners Interior Designers Appraisers & Assessors of Real Estate Survey Researchers Property & Community Association Managers Marketing Managers Sales Representatives, Wholesale & Mfg Lodging Managers Real Estate Brokers Growth Ann. Total Rate Openings 20.1% 19.9% 19.5% 16.9% 15.9% 15.1% 14.4% 12.4% 12.2% 11.1% 6,310 2,010 3,300 3,710 630 9,470 14,190 2,470 3,550 Typical Education & Training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Associate degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Work experience in a related occ. Work experience in a related occ. Work experience in a related occ. Median Ann. Wages $58,820 $42,180 $42,260 $44,460 $33,360 $43,070 $98,720 $64,440 $42,320 $60,790
6,110 Bachelor's or higher degree + work exp.
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Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations
2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook
Occupational Title Financial Analysts Database Administrators Social & Community Service Managers Management Analysts Advertising Sales Agents Market Research Analysts Brokerage Clerks Technical Writers Cost Estimators Comp., Benefits & Job Analysis Specialists
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Growth Ann. Total Rate Openings 33.8% 28.6% 24.7% 21.9% 20.3% 20.1% 20.0% 19.5% 18.5% 18.4% 8,760 4,710 5,710 6,460 6,310 3,870 2,460 8,590 4,420
Typical Education & Training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree
Median Ann. Wages $66,590 $64,670 $52,070 $68,050 $42,750 $58,820 $36,390 $58,050 $52,940 $50,230
26,470 Bachelor's or higher degree + work exp.
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Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations
2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook
Occupational Title Network Systems & Data Comms Analysts Computer Software Engineers, Applications Computer Systems Analysts Database Administrators Computer Systems Software Engineers Network & Computer Systems Administrators Multi-Media Artists & Animators Computer & Information Scientists, Research Computer & Information Systems Managers Computer Support Specialists
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Growth Ann. Total Rate Openings 53.4% 44.6% 29.0% 28.6% 28.2% 27.0% 25.8% 21.5% 16.4% 12.9% 19,280 29,980 27,990 4,710 14,960 15,430 4,250 1,240 24,220
Typical Education & Training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Doctoral degree Associate degree
Median Ann. Wages $64,600 $79,780 $69,760 $64,670 $85,370 $62,130 $51,350 $93,950 $101,580 $41,470
8,610 Bachelor's or higher degree + work exp.
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Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations
2006-2016 U.S. Employment Outlook
Occupational Title Computer Software Engineers, Applications Environmental Engineers Geoscientists, Except Hydrologists and Geographers Industrial Engineers Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists Market Research Analysts Cost Estimators Civil Engineers Survey Researchers Computer Support Specialists
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Growth Ann. Total Rate Openings 44.6% 25.4% 21.9% 20.3% 20.2% 20.1% 18.5% 18.0% 15.9% 12.9% 29,980 2,980 1,480 8,900 4,460 6,300 8,590 11,410 630 24,220
Typical Education & Training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Doctoral degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Associate degree
Median Ann. Wages $79,780 $69,940 $72,660 $68,620 $61,680 $58,820 $52,940 $68,600 $33,360 $41,470
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Note: Only occupations with at least 25,000 jobs in 2016 & with above the nation’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,400) are included. Source: Analysis of 2006-16 US Projections, BLS; Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations
2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook
Occupational Title Market Research Analysts Appraisers & Assessors of Real Estate Marketing Managers Sales Representatives, Whsl & Mfg, Tech Meeting & Convention Planners Sales Managers Sales Representatives, Whsl & Mfg, Ex. Tech Lodging Managers Interior Designers Real Estate Sales Agents
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Growth Ann. Total Rate Openings 15.0% 13.9% 11.4% 11.2% 11.1% 7.8% 7.6% 7.0% 5.4% 4.6% 160 90 80 350 30 200 1,390 40 50 70
Typical Education & Training Master's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's or higher degree + work exp. Work experience in a related occupation Bachelor's degree Bachelor's or higher degree + work exp. Work experience in a related occupation Work experience in a related occupation Bachelor's degree Postsecondary vocational training
Median Ann. Wages $56,306 $43,098 $88,112 $70,386 $36,497 $90,677 $51,568 $39,817 $37,594 $39,344
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Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations
2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook
Occupational Title Financial Analysts Database Administrators Operations Research Analysts Advertising Sales Agents Cost Estimators Construction Managers Social & Community Service Managers Market Research Analysts Logisticians Accountants & Auditors
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Growth Ann. Total Rate Openings 26.3% 21.9% 19.0% 18.3% 16.0% 15.9% 15.5% 15.0% 14.7% 14.6% 70 50 20 120 180 180 90 90 50 770
Typical Education & Training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree Moderate-term on-the-job training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree
Median Ann. Wages $56,152 $63,401 $55,005 $37,734 $50,092 $77,012 $49,535 $56,306 $57,961 $53,560
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Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations
2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook
Occupational Title Network Systems & Data Comms Analysts Computer Software Engineers, Applications Computer Systems Software Engineers Database Administrators Computer Systems Analysts Network & Computer Systems Administrators Multi-Media Artists & Animators Computer & Information Systems Managers Computer Support Specialists Graphic Designers
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Growth Ann. Total Rate Openings 43.6% 37.7% 26.7% 21.9% 20.5% 20.2% 14.2% 11.1% 8.8% 6.4% 330 460 120 50 520 230 90 120 360 210
Typical Education & Training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's or higher degree + work exp. Associate degree Bachelor's degree
Median Ann. Wages $56,551 $67,131 $74,660 $63,401 $62,152 $56,518 $44,298 $89,666 $38,629 $36,800
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Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Top Ten Fastest Growing & High Paying Occupations
2006-2016 WISCONSIN Employment Outlook
Occupational Title Computer Software Engineers, Applications Industrial Engineers Microbiologists Cost Estimators Environmental Engineers Market Research Analysts Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists Materials Scientists Chemists Industrial Engineering Technicians
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Growth Ann. Total Rate Openings 37.7% 21.4% 18.3% 16.0% 15.8% 15.0% 14.5% 13.2% 10.2% 10.2% 460 240 20 180 50 90 80 20 80 50
Typical Education & Training Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Doctoral degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Master's degree Doctoral degree Bachelor's degree Bachelor's degree Associate degree
Median Ann. Wages $67,131 $62,237 $47,301 $50,092 $64,190 $56,306 $46,268 $76,285 $47,120 $41,019
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January 26, 2009
Note: Only occupations with at least 500 jobs in 2016 & with above the state’s ann. median wage for all jobs ($30,395) are included. Source: 2006-16 Wisconsin Projections, Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Wisconsin’s Industry Employment, 2006 & 2016 (in thousands jobs)
Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 143.2 158.1 177.9 182.1 258.6 288.3 49.3 50.8 161.3 180.6 270.2 317.9 614.0 706.6 4.0 3.8 127.1 139.9 505.5 497.9 559.0 581.1
2006 2016
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Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016
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U.S. Industry Employment, 2006 & 2016 (in thousands jobs)
Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, & Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 6,230 7,080 21,990 23,320 3,050 3,270 8,360 9,570 17,550 17,840 13,140 15,020 21,640 22,480 620 610 7,690 8,470 14,200 12,690 26,230 27,810 2006 2016
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Source: 2006-2016 U.S. Projections, BLS & Office of Economic Advisors, DWD
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Wisconsin’s Top Ten Industries with the Most New Jobs, 2006 & 2016
Ambulatory Health Care Services Administrative & Support Services Food Services & Drinking Places Hospitals, Including State & Local Government Social Assistance Professional, Scientific, & Technical Services Educational Services, Including State & Local Government Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Prof. & Similar Organizations Nursing & Residential Care Facilities Specialty Trade Contractors 11,140 10,900 10,230 7,910 24,090 22,000 20,950 20,410 17,270
29,840
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Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016
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Job Openings by Major Occupational Group 2006 & 2016
Service Professional & Related Office & Administrative Support Sales & Related Production Management, Business, & Financial Transportation & Material Moving Construction & Extraction Installation, Maintenance, & Repair Farming, Fishing, & Forestry 124,120 103,160 77,310 70,990 58,520 36,710 26,150 1,670 New Jobs Replacements 230,890 197,160
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Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016
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Top Ten Wisconsin Occupations with the Most Job Openings, 2006 & 2016
32,440 31,400 30,860 21,820 21,000 20,770 17,300 17,000 15,240 14,010 New Jobs Replacements
Retail Salespersons Cashiers Waiters & Waitresses Registered Nurses Customer Service Representatives Combined Food Preparation & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food Laborers & Freight, Stock, & Material Movers, Hand Janitors & Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners Truck Drivers, Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Office Clerks, General
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Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016
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Job Openings by Education and Training 2006 & 2016
ST OJT = short-term on-the-job training MT OJT = moderate-term on-the-job training LT OJT = long-term on-the-job training WORK = work experience in a related occupation VOC = postsecondary vocational training AA/AS = associate degree BA/BS = bachelor’s degree BA PLUS = more than a bachelor’s degree
31%
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Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016
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Bottom Line
As the nation’s labor force tries to stay competitive in the global marketplace, more emphasis will be placed on education and training. In today’s economy, knowledge is becoming increasingly valuable, which is consistently reflected by high growth rates in employment in the occupations typically requiring some type of postsecondary education.
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Education and Training, 2006 & 2016
Fastest growing occupations have higher education and training
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Source: Office of Economic Advisors, Wisconsin Projections 2006-2016
Careers Conference 2009
For more information contact: Victoria Udalova Victoria.Udalova@dwd.wisconsin.gov (608) 267-9607
http://dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea
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