28 Dec., 2006

28 Dec., 2006 Water Management Progress Report Quarterly Update Sept-Dec. 2006 1.0 PROGRAM UPDATES 1.1 Water Management Program Background • The NASA Applied Sciences Program (ASP) held their Annual Program Review Oct. 2-3 2007. Key goals of the review were to prioritize plans for FY07-FY11 and to outline the Program Plans, including Water Management. The ASP is looking for synergy and improved communication between programs. FY07 ASP budgets have modest declines of approximately 5%. Solicitations for new projects, including Water Management, are planned to be released through „NASA ROSES‟ as early as February 2007. • Brian Cosgrove (GSFC), Siegfried Schubert (GSFC), Son Nghiem (JPL) and James Verdin (USGS, NASA funded PI) provided NASA representation to NIDIS (National Integrated Data Information System) meetings (Longmont, CO and Lincoln, NE) and are contributing to the “NIDIS Implementation Plan”. Manfred Owe (GSFC) was designated as the NASA point of contact to NIDIS. • David Toll and Ted Engman (NASA/GSFC) attended the October 2006 "Advisory Committee on Water Information's (ACWI's)” Subcommittee on Hydrology (SOH) in Washington DC. NASA/GSFC agreed to host the next quarterly meeting in Greenbelt, MD this January 11, 2006. • The Water Management Program supported the IGWCO Capacity Building Workshops in Buenos Aires, Argentina (Nov. 2006). Venkat Lakshmi, Univ. South Carolina, represented NASA. IGWCO directly supports and is aligned with GEO and GEOS efforts. IGWCO includes capacity building for Africa, Latin America and Asia. A NASA/GSFC/ORAU Post-Doc, Luis Gustavo de Goncalves is working to use NASA satellite and LIS modeling products to improve CPTEC South American weather forecasting skills. • Ted Engman (NASA/GSFC/SAIC) helped to develop a new project proposal for a NASA contribution to NASA-ESA cooperation. The project outline is targeting the use of GRACE data for estimating ground water reservoir changes as a contribution to ESA-TIGER-AQUIFER project. Ted participated in a telecom with ESA and NASA staff. • Engman prepared a paper “The Hydrologic Cycle and the Sustainability of Water Resources” for an Elements of Life publication being coordinated by Steve Ambrose (NASA-HQ) and Shahid Habib (GSFC). • Engman prepared an abstract for an oral presentation at the International Symposium on Remote Sensing of the Environment. The title of the abstract is “Satellites, A Source of Water Cycle Information for Water resources Management” and the authors are Ted Engman, Shahid Habib, Stephen Ambrose, and Fritz Policelli. • Christa Peters-Lidard and David Toll (NASA/GSFC) developed work outlines with Valentine Anantharaj and Chuck O‟Hara from Mississippi State University Mississippi to use NASA products through the „Rapid Prototyping Capability‟ to 1) enhance the USDA NRCS „SCAN‟ soil moisture data; 2) improve modeling of St Louis Bay watershed water quality, as well as, the upland to coastal water quality; and 3) improve South American agriculture efficiency and water availability for the Cordova basin. • David Toll (NASA/GSFC) co-convened the session, “Computational Rapid Prototyping Capability for Advancing Science towards Societal Benefits II” at the 2006 Fall Meeting in San Francisco. He also presented a technical presentation “Programmatic Perspectives on Using „Rapid Prototyping Capability‟ for Water Management Applications Using NASA Products”, Lawrence Friedl, Jared Entin and Edwin Engman are co-authors. • Look for a new Water Management Project Office web site to be available this January 2007. 2.0 PROJECT UPDATES 2.1 Nonpoint Source Water Quality Using NASA Products Investigators: D. Toll (NASA/GSFC), Ed Partington (EPA/OW), James Carleton (EPA/OW), G. Shenk (EPA/CBP), Angelica Magness (USGS/CBP), E. Engman (SAIC/NASA/GSFC), J. Nigro (SSAI/NASA/GSFC), W. Ni-Meister (Hunter College), ShihYan Lee (Hunter College), and Phil Townsend (Univ. Wisc.) • NASA, EPA and Hunter College met in December to discuss project plans towards a Benchmark report. Also work was completed towards including NOAA Stage IV precipitation products to seven basins in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed over various flow time periods (i.e., peak flow events, low flow, and monthly). NLDAS 1/8 th degree precipitation data was also substituted for default weather station data and runs were conducted in all seven of the basins. The preliminary statistical results are being compared and show an improvement using NLDAS in all basins. • NASA HQ approved grant work with Hunter College (Wenge Ni-Meister) and University of Wisconsin (Phil Townsend) to complete work towards benchmarking NASA products in to the EPA BASINS-HSPF Decision Support Tool. Hunter College will complete work towards analyzing NASA precipitation and evapotranspiration estimates to HSPF using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) model calibration tool. • Work plans are being developed with Chuck O‟Hara of Mississippi State University to extend Chesapeake Bay results to the Jordan River Catchment in southern Mississippi. 2.2 Water Supply Demand Monitoring and Forecasting Using NASA Products Kristi Arsenault (UMBC/GEST/NASA/GSFC), David Toll (NASA/GSFC), E. Engman (NASA/GSFC/SAIC), S. Bowser (BoR), R. Stodt (BoR/TSC), S. Hunter (BoR), A. Brower (BoR), R. Allen (U. Idaho), and A. Pinheiro (ORAU/NASA/GSFC) Middle Rio Grande – AWARDS ET Toolbox The eighth degree NLDAS forcing dataset has been validated in this region with available in-situ observations from station networks that supply data to the AWARDS ET Toolbox in New Mexico and also with data from the University of New Mexico eddy covariance flux towers. Biases in the NLDAS forcing were determined for a four-year period and are being used to adjust the NLDAS forcing dataset, so it can be used as a substitute in the observational time-series when measurements are missing. These updated station datasets will be used next for LIS land surface model (LSM) experiments where the local forcing will be used to drive the model versus using NLDAS fields. The evapotranspiration output from the models will then be compared against the local eddy covariance tower estimates. Additional evaluation studies and sensitivity case experiments are currently being devised and set up with the aim of better understanding the LSM physics for this region. Work by Univ. of Idaho (R. Allen) has provided MODIS-METRIC ET values for 2002 using optical and thermal data. They are also providing updated crop coefficients for years through 2005 using primarily MODIS vegetation products. Current work is towards coordinating with NASA and Reclamation plans for Benchmarking in support of AWARDS ET-Toolbox. ORAU/NASA/GSFC (A. Pinheiro) is making progress towards assimilating MODIS Land Surface Temperature fields versus LIS/CLM LST at 1 km focusing on the parameterization of the emissivity fields and the lack of spatial heterogeneity (vegetation versus bare) on LIS 1 km pixels. Identical twins experiments using simulation data was successfully completed using Ensemble Kalman filtering. She is also evaluating LIS/CLM temperature, radiation, and sensible heat and latent heat fields against in situ data. Additional work is towards evaluating ET to soil and sensible fluxes and soil moisture. Yakima Basin - RiverWare A recent meeting was held at the Yakima, WA, Reclamation Area Office in midNovember to follow-up on project plans and tasks. Mark Mastin from USGS attended to help with the MMS setup and plans for the benchmarking experiments designed for this area. The experiments include initializing MMS (set up for the Yakima Basin) with the NOHRSC SNODAS SWE product and then with LIS LSM-based SWE, which will be further constrained with MODIS snow cover fraction and albedo products. The LIS LSMs (Noah 2.7.1 and CLM2) have been parameterized with MODIS datasets for this area, and improvements to the albedo parameterizations are currently being made. Also in the last two months, LSM sensitivity tests were performed to better understand the impacts of the elevation adjustment/correction to the NLDAS forcing dataset and subsequently to the LSMs snow variables. The models are behaving quite sensitively to slight changes in elevation and hence surface temperatures, having major impacts on the models' abilities to either retain realistic snow amounts or melt off realistic amounts. 2.3 Title: National Drought Monitoring System for Drought Early Warning Using Hydrologic and Ecologic Observations from NASA Satellite Data Investigators: S. V. Nghiem (JPL, PI), J. P. Verdin (USGS, Lead Co-I), D. A. Wilhite (National Drought Mitigation Center or NDMC), R. Dole (NOAA Physical Science Division), D. LeComte (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), G. R. Brakenridge (Dartmouth College), E. G. Njoku (JPL)   Recently received NASA funding to start project (June 2006) Participation by S. V. Nghiem (per invitation) in the Drought Challenge Workshop held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, in July-August 2006. The workshop address issues related to drought/NIDIS. It recommended: Focus studies on drought, integration of current and historical data for drought monitoring, climate model research for drought applications, and interagency coordination. JPL processing of subcontracts to co-investigators at USGS, NDMC, and NOAA. JPL successfully sent a subcontract to USGS/NDMC. JPL subcontract to NOAA is waiting to be reviewed by the NOAA General Council. Starting the modification of QSCAT Land Surface Water Processor to ingest newly reprocessed QuikSCAT data for drought monitoring. (The NASA Scatterometer Project decided to reprocess the entire QuikSCAT dataset collected since July 1999 – 7 years of data and continuing). We have newly demonstrated that QSCAT can measure NDVI with a high temporal resolution without cloud cover effects. QSCAT backscatter is highly correlated to NDVI as observed from multiple years of data including high-precipitation seasons as well as severe drought periods. The correlation coefficient between NDVI and backscatter is as high as 0.92 for the vertical polarization and 0.91 for horizontal polarization. With the capability to track vegetation change in both wet seasons and drought periods, QSCAT will help to monitor vegetation conditions for drought applications.       Participating in the Drought/NIDIS Meetings in Longmont, Colorado. this meeting was an important part of the Congressional briefing, conducted by Don Wilhite, Steve Wells (President of GSA), and (Executive Director of GSA) the week following the Drought meeting. passed by the House and by the Senate Commerce Committee. Input from which was Jack Hess NIDIS was  Providing comments and suggestions to the development of the NIDIS portal. 2.4 Title: Improving NOAA/NWS River Forecast Center Decision Support with NASA Satellite and Land Information System Products Investigators: P. Restrepo (NOAA/NWS/OHD), A. Limaye (MSFC GHCC) Christa PetersLidard (NASA GSFC), C. Laymon (MSFC/USRA/GHCC), W. Crosson (MSFC/USRA/GHCC), M. Estes (MSFC/USRA/GHCC), Z. Al-Hamden (MSFC/USRA/GHCC), D.L. Rickman (NASA/MSFC), F. Cosgrove (SAIC/NASA/GSFC), M. Garcia (UMC/GEST/NASA/GSFC), V. Koren (NOAA/NWS/OHD), D.J. Seo (UCAR/NOAA/NWS/OHD), M. Smith (NOAA/NWS/OHD), D. Toll (NASA/GSFC), and P. Houser (GMU/IGES/CREW) • Currently NOAA OHD still cannot access NASA funds. For the last several months the funds have been held up at the NOAA legal office. However, work has commenced to coordinate with NASA MSFC and GSFC for the selection of test sites and the benchmarking plans of NASA products. D. Toll, C. Peters-Lidard and P. Restrepo discussed plans to emphasize the assimilation of MODIS snow in to LIS SAC and Snow-17 models. This replaces previously planned assimilation of MODIS land surface temperature. MSFC Work Phase 1 Activities Objective: to assess the utility of MODIS cloud mask product in conjunction with cloud ceilometer data from the Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) stations to improve hydrologic model performance of the NWSRFS. • MSFC team is evaluating the NWSRFS hydrologic modeling input data requirements. • The spatial and temporal extent of this study area is designed to cover parts the NOAA distributed hydrologic modeling domain. The NOAA effort includes 23 Texas watersheds, 14 of which are included in this study area. • At present, we are collecting and analyzing data needed for the evaluation and benchmark study. The various datasets needed for the potential evaporation estimation include a). ASOS ceilometer data for the stations within the study area, b). Solar radiation data from the Texas and Oklahoma NRCS Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) sites and c). MODIS cloud mask data. GSFC Work • GSFC and OHD are discussing benchmarking plans of MODIS snow cover assimilation in to LIS SAC and Snow-17 land surface modeling for benchmarking efforts to the American Watershed in California. • Assessment of possible DMIP test sites in California is under evaluation. NOAA and GSFC are discussing using the snow assimilation in place of MODIS surface temperature for Phase 2 activities. • Obtained Sacramento model code, documentation, and parameters from NOAA OHD. • Installed LIS onto local computer systems as well as Halem supercomputer in preparation for Sacramento integration into LIS. • Began Sacramento model integration--process is about 60% complete at this Point. 2.5 Improving water resources management in the western U.S. through use of remote sensing data and seasonal climate forecasts Investigators: Dennis Lettenmaier (PI, U. Washington), S. Soorooshian (U. Cal. Irvine), A. Wood (U. Washington), A. Steinmann (U. Washington), B. Imam (U. Cal. Irvine) • MODIS snow cover data for the western U.S. has been downloaded from National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and is being updated daily. The MOD10A1 data set has tiles of daily snow cover at 500 m spatial resolution. It is re-projected to fit the current UW forecast system. The MODIS snow cover and snow albedo data is directly inserted to VIC model to update the model status. A data assimilation procedure that will update nowcasts, initially for the Feather River basin, is currently being tested. • A. Wood met with Klamath Falls USBR water managers in November to discuss seasonal forecast use and implementation in the upper Klamath R. basin. Citing recent failures and frustrations associated with the official NRCS/NWS seasonal forecast products and the institutionally mandated framework for forecast use, USBR water managers indicated that they intend to de-emphasize use of seasonal forecasts and migrate toward an operational management approach that places higher weight on nowcasts of moisture conditions (snowpack, soil moisture and river flow), and on medium-range forecasts (1-15 day). Accordingly, we are revising our product development priorities in the Upper Klamath River basin to respond by accelerating implementation of an approach for medium range forecasting. In particular, we have negotiated with NOAA ESRL to implement a 1-15 day forecast approach in a pilot mode for the Klamath basin. The forecast approach, which is based on the use of climate analogues and a reforecast database developed by Tom Hamill at ESRL, will be implemented on a pilot basis, initially for the upper Klamath R. basin. • Work continues on implementation of the CaliForecast system at UCI. The UCI team has acquired the necessary software tools required to utilize the CALSIM model, which is used to compute forecast impairments. We have not yet installed and tested the CALSIM model, but we will initiate the process as soon as forecast points are identified and the hydrologic model is calibrated (currently in process). • The forecast calibration method evaluation has been completed, and a journal paper submitted. Wood, A.W., 2006, Correcting errors in streamflow forecast ensemble mean and spread, in review, Journal of Hydrometeorology. • We have begun work to implement VIC at higher resolution (1/16 degree lat-long) for Washington, Oregon and California, which contain the target Klamath and Sacramento River basins. In addition, we have altered the forecast implementation to facilitate daily nowcasts, which will support more frequent forecast updates than are possible with the present West-wide system. Finally, forecast system capabilities have been enhanced with new nowcast diagnostic analyses, which are intended for eventual use in the target basins. • We are in the process of performing retrospective evaluations of forecast system performance in the Feather River basin as part of a joint forecast error evaluation with NWS (see Task 6) which will aid in further enhancements to the system. At present, the model forcing (and updating) data sets are the same as we are using in our Westwide Forecast System, however we expect to augment these with additional DWR and other data. • A conference call was held with DWR (see attached summary), in late November which has helped to focus development of forecast products. Given the interest of DWR in short lead (flood) forecasts, we intend to implement the same ESRL 1-15 day forecast system in the California portion of the domain (initially Feather River) as in the Klamath (see Task 1 summary). In addition, a meeting at DWR headquarters in Sacramento with UW is scheduled for early in January. Univ. Washington – California Department of Water Resources Conference Call Summary, November 28, 2006 The purpose was to find out the forecasting needs of California DWR. The California DWR reports that climate forecasts would be useful in better predicting water supply availability. Currently, two forecasts are issued for water supply – seasonal forecasts that are disaggregated into monthly forecasts. The Water Supply Index (WSI) is issued from December through May or June of each year, and is based on the Sacramento Valley Index and the San Joaquin Valley Index. Bulletin 120, which is based on historical data, is issued each year beginning February 1, with revised forecasts on March 1, April 1, and May 1. The forecasts drive most of the water resource decisions in the state, including those related to the Central Valley Project and agriculture. Since the forecasts use different methods, DWR generally has a hard time making the two agree, and this could be a potential area for improvement. In addition, the water supply forecasts are not used to help make operations decisions, although it would be helpful to be able to do that. DWR currently looks at CPC forecasts in broad terms only, since they generally only provide regional information, and do not get specific enough for DWR’s needs. It is not clear whether these forecasts are precise enough for DWR’s needs. In general, it appears that the project scope identified by University of Washington is in line with DWR needs. Of particular note is the fact that they still rely on statistical, historical data to produce forecasts, since hydrology in recent years has been so erratic. • We have conducted preliminary hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of summer period runoff (April-July) in the Feather R. basin for establishing baseline forecast skill levels (show hind cast results). Results shows 56 years of hindcasts initiated on the primary streamflow forecast dates used for operational purposes: Jan 1, Feb 1, Mar 1, Apr 1, May 1, and Jun 1. The hindcasts show adequate correlations with observations, but the uncertainty bounds provided by the ESP forecast technique (which is a baseline approach used operationally in the NWS) are erroneously narrow (suggesting forecast overconfidence). As a result, we have also explored a forecast calibration approach that corrects for forecast uncertainty errors, based on using the ESP mean as a single value forecast and formulating the uncertainty from both forecast correlation and climatological information (Wood, A.W., and Schaake, J.C. Jr, 2006. A simplified approach to hydrologic ensemble prediction, to be submitted, Journal of Hydrometeorology.). The resulting forecast error distributions match those observed during the 56-year hindcast evaluation period. This technique is likely to become a central part of the forecasts transferred in this project. 2.6 What is the Value of Integrating Best Estimates of Regional Evapotranspiration into Hydrologic Decision Support Systems? PI: Ian Hendricks, New Mexico Tech • The Cooperative Agreement for this new project was finalized in the middle of October with an effective date of September 1, 2006. This is a two-year project. • A Scope of Work has been prepared for the subcontract with the US Bureau of Reclamation (Co-PI Richard Stodt). An official subcontract has been sent to US BoR by New Mexico Tech. • Preparations are under way for the subcontracts with the US Army Corps of Engineers (Co-PI Aaron Byrd) and with Co-PI Allen. • We have compared ET maps derived from Landsat and MODIS using SEBALNM. It appears that up scaling of ET maps (from Landsat to MODIS scale) can be realized by simple averaging routines. • We have programmed in Matlab an algorithm (published in the early 1980s by Diak and his colleagues) to derive incoming global radiation from GOES images. • We have approached colleagues in New Mexico for the Education and Outreach part of this project but we have not been able to establish communication with the point of contact within NASA to proceed with this activity. 3.0 ISSUES AND CONCERNS • There were many problems with dissemination of funds, especially to the Restrepo and Nghiem projects. For some of these activities, funds are still not fully disseminated {i.e., Noah OHD to Restrepo {currently a NOAA legal)}.