Regional Business Cycle vs. National Business Cycle

Regional Business Cycle vs. National Business Cycle How the Illinois Economy Responds to Shocks from the Nation and Surrounding States IEO Report 2003-5 Presentation by the Illinois Economic Observatory R E A L Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Introduction • All economies are subject to business cycle fluctuations • This report explores the impact of national and regional (other state) business cycles on the Illinois economy • Analysis attempts to answer the question – – how does the Illinois economy respond to changes in • National cycles • Other state cycles Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Structure of Regional Business Cycle State-specific Shock Industry-specific Shock National-common Shock State to State Interactions Industry to Industry Interactions State Business Cycle Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 National Business Cycle vs. Regional Business Cycle Dominant Shock Results National-common Similar cyclical Shock pattern State-specific Shock Different cyclical pattern  The proportion of national shock to total variance: 66:34 (annual data), 49:51 (quarterly data). Residual is regional-specific shock Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Common Wisdom about Relationship Between State and National Cycle  Around Turning Points: National and Regional Cycle Coincide with Each Other  In the Middle of Expansion or Contraction: National and Regional Cycle Behave Differently  Big State Leads Neighborhood States Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Cyclical Part of Midwest States’ Coincident Indexes 0.04 4 0.02 2 0.00 0 -0.02 -2 -0.04 -4 -0.06 80 82 84 86 88 CIL 90 92 94 CXCI 96 98 00 02 -6 Illinois: lags national cycle 3-4 months; different behavior in middle expansion/contraction 0 .03 0 .02 2 0 .01 0 .00 - 0.0 1 - 0.0 2 -4 - 0.0 3 - 0.0 4 80 82 84 86 88 90 C IN 92 94 C XC I 96 98 00 02 -6 0 4 -2 Indiana: Coincides with national cycle 0.06 0.04 4 2 0.02 0.00 -0.02 -0.04 -4 -0.06 -0.08 80 82 84 86 88 CMI 90 92 94 CXCI 96 98 00 02 -6 0 -2 Michigan: moves with nation but different pattern in late 1980s cycle 0.04 4 0.02 2 0.00 0 -0.02 -2 -0.04 -4 -0.06 80 82 84 86 88 COH 90 92 94 CXCI 96 98 00 02 -6 Ohio: coincides with nation 0.03 0.02 2 0.01 0.00 -0.01 -0.02 -4 -0.03 -0.04 80 82 84 86 88 CWI 90 92 94 CXCI 96 98 00 02 -6 0 4 -2 Wisconsin: coincides with nation Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Why does this happen? National Common Shock Manufacturing . . . . . . Services Industry Combination of Each State Differences in State Business Cycles Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Industry Mix Effects  Manufacturing sector reacts promptly to the national shock while services sector responds after a few months  Hence, manufacturing-oriented state moves first and relatively service-oriented state follows  Table shows Illinois structure more similar to US than Rest of Midwest  Reinforces finding of IEO-2003-4 that major difference between Illinois and US is in growth rates not industrial composition Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Industry Mix Effects  May also be a sequencing effect – value chain of production – as raw materials successively transformed into finished product  States with establishments producing close-tofinal product likely to move together with nation  Hence: expect Michigan and Ohio to move with nation because of large number of auto assembly operations  Illinois and Wisconsin move with some delay since they are primarily intermediate suppliers Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Ratio of Industry Production to GSP (Base Year: 2000) Industry Agriculture, forest., fish Construction Manufacturing TPU Wholesale Trade Retail Trade FIRE Services Illinois 0.89 4.77 15.71 8.82 7.92 8.06 20.73 23.04 Indiana Michigan 1.16 0.89 5.12 5.11 30.65 26.27 7.51 6.56 5.96 7.24 9.04 9.23 13.23 14.27 17.04 19.93 Ohio 0.93 4.51 23.99 7.27 7.11 9.71 16.36 18.76 Wisconsin 1.64 4.86 25.38 7.17 6.47 9.35 15.81 18.21 U.S. 1.36 4.66 15.37 8.18 7.04 8.97 19.99 21.40 Illinois manufacturing share of Gross State Product much smaller than Rest of Midwest. Illinois share of FIRE and Services much higher Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Dynamic Simulation with VAR Model 1. 0 0. 5 0. 0 - 0. 5 - 1. 0 - 1. 5 - 2. 0 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 C FN A M I Recessions caused by national shock 0. 06 0 0. 04 0 0. 02 0 0. 00 0 - 0. 00 2 - 0. 00 4 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 D L I FVM L D LI N FVM Illinois lags Indiana 3-4 months in response to national shock Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy 0. 006 0. 004 0. 002 0. 000 - 0. 002 - 0. 004 - 0. 006 - 0. 008 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 IE0-2003-5 Illinois lags Michigan 4-5 months D LI L FV M 0. 006 0. 004 0. 002 0. 000 - 0. 002 - 0. 004 - 0. 006 86 88 90 92 94 D L MI FV M Illinois lags Ohio 3-4 months 96 98 00 02 D LI L FV M D L OH FV M 0. 006 0. 004 0. 002 0. 000 - 0. 002 Illinois lags Wisconsin 2-3 months 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 - 0. 004 D LI L FV M D LWI FV M Illinois - solid line: other state - dotted line Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Interpretation  Illinois response lags other states  If we decompose into sector effects, find that Illinois does affect other Midwest states  Need to explore transmission effects of cycles on a state-sector basis – for example  How changes in auto production in Michigan affect fabricated metals production in Illinois and steel production in Indiana Business Cycles and the Illinois Economy IE0-2003-5 Implications  Patterns of response very complicated – need more detailed analysis  Divergence of the regional business cycle from the national one does not necessarily mean that there is a region-specific shock – may reflect different stages in chain of production linkages  Attention should be directed to tracing the national shock and the corresponding changes in the region’s industry composition