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Theory of Development

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					Development & Environment
     Myths & Realities

         By Garry Jacobs
    The Mother’s Service Society


1
  Options ?

 No growth
 De-growth

 Growth

 Development

 Conscious Development or Evolution


                                   2
        “500 years of progress in 50 years”
               World Average (Per Capita GDP)

7,000
           World Average PCI 1950-2000
                     In constant $2000 PPP    UNDP
          World Average Per Capita GDP
6,000
                Constant $2000 PPP
5,000


4,000


3,000

                                         Geary-Khamis dollars
2,000


1,000


   0
                                                           3
    50
    52
    54
    56
    58
    60
    62
    64
    66
    68
    70
    72
    74
    76
    78
    80
    82
    84
    86
    88
    90
    92
    94
    96
    98
    00
    02
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  19
  20
  20
                                           Cum Population %                                                                                                                       Cum Population %
                                                                                                                                 30
                                                                                                                                   ,3
                                                                                                                                     8




                                                                                                                                           0.0%
                                                                                                                                                    10.0%
                                                                                                                                                                  20.0%
                                                                                                                                                                          30.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                   40.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                           50.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                   60.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               70.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                             80.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          90.0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       100.0%




                                                                                                                                       7




                    0%
                         10%
                               20%
                                     30%
                                             40%
                                                   50%
                                                         60%
                                                               70%
                                                                     80%
                                                                           90%
                                                                                        100%
                                                                                                                                  9,
                                                                                                                                    06
           29,037                                                                                                                     4
                                                                                                                                  7,
                                                                                                                                    29
           23,236                                                                                                                     1
                                                                                                                                  5,
                                                                                                                                    99
           21,530                                                                                                                     6
                                                                                                                                  4,
                                                                                                                                    98
           21,218                                                                                                                     7
                                                                                                                                  3,
                                                                                                                                    84
                                                                                                                                      6
           17,818                                                                                                                 3,
                                                                                                                                    50
                                                                                                                                      2
           16,360                                                                                                                 2,
                                                                                                                                    81
                                                                                                                                      7
           13,807                                                                                                                 2,
                                                                                                                                    44
                                                                                                                                      7
           10,145                                                                                                                 2,
                                                                                                                                    30
                                                                                                                                      8
            8,915                                                                                                                 2,
                                                                                                                                    18
                                                                                                                                      9
                                                                                                                                  2,
            7,674                                                                                                                   10
                                                                                                                                      4
            7,233
                                                                                                PCI 2003                          1,
                                                                                                                                    98
                                                                                                                                      9
                                                                                                                                  1,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                PCI 1950




            6,805                                                                                                                   91
                                                                                                                                      6
                                                                                                                                  1,
            6,278                                                                                                                   72
                                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                  1,
                                                                                                                                    62
            5,563                                                                                                                     3
                                                                                                                                  1,
                                                                                                                                    55
            4,937                                                                                                                     1
                                                                                                                                  1,
                                                                                                                                    36
            4,060                                                                                                                     5
                                                                                                                                  1,
                                                                                                                                    25
            3,768                                                                                                                     9
                                                                                                                                  1,
                                                                                                         PCI Growth
                                                                                                                                                  Average $2100




                                                                                                                                    15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    PCI Growth




            3,547                                                                                                                     1
                                                                                                                                  1,
                                                                                                                      PCI 1950




                                                                                                                                    08




PCI 2003
                                                                                                                                      4
            3,295                                                                                                                 1,
                                                                                                                                    05
                                                                                                                                      2
            2,953                                                                                                                 1,
                                                                                                                                    00
                                                                                                                                      1
            2,617                                                                                                                   91
                                                                                                                                      1
            2,536                                                                                                                   85
                                                                                                                                      4
            2,147                                                                                                                   81
                                                                                                                                      7
            1,881                                                                                                                   70
                                                                                                                                      1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          <$2000 (constant PPP)




            1,372                                                                                                                   65
                                                                            PCI <$2000 (constant PPP)




                                                                                                                                      8
            1,268                                                                                                                   64
                                                                                                                                      3

            1,102                                                                                                                   61
                                                                                                                                      3
                                                                                                                                    56
            1,040                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                    49
             994                                                                                                                      6
                                                                                                                                    46
             871                                                                                                                      4
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Growth of real PCI 1950-2000




                                                                                                                                    43
             655                                                                                                                      5
                                                                            Only 18% of World Population had




                                                                                                                                    36
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          73% of World Population had PCI




             601                                                                                                                      0
                                                                                                                                    30
                                                                                                                                      3
             518
           4
      Pace of development is accelerating
            Multiplication of real PCI (PPP) 1950-2000

Korea                                          19
Taiwan                                         18
Botswana                                       12
Japan                                          11
China & Thailand                               8
Spain & Portugal                               7
Ireland, Greece & Israel                       6
Italy & Germany + 5                            5
Indonesia, France, Turkey + 12                 4
Brazil, Mexico, India, Pakistan, USA + 29      3     5
        Doubling real PCI took

UK        1780-1838              58 yrs
USA       1839-1886              47 yrs
Japan     1880-1920              40 yrs
World     1950-1973              23 yrs
India     1985-2001              16 yrs
China     1980-1992              12 yrs
Japan     1962-1971              9 yrs
Korea     1964-1971              7 yrs
                                          6
                   Per Capita GDP India & 2001
              Growth of China,(PPP) 1 AD toWorld PCI
                 1000-2000 (Constant $China
                  World Per Capita GDP (PPP) PPP) India
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
   0
       1000     1100   1200   1300   1400   1500   1600   1700   1800   1900   2000

                                            Year                               7
Growth projections




                     8
       Qualitative development
 Quality of products & services
 Freedom through democratization
 Human Rights
 Equality for Women
 Explosion of knowledge
 Spread of education
 Proliferation of skills
 Instantaneous global communication
 Faster, cheaper transportation
 Access to entertainment              9
             Unanswered Questions
   How can we explain the unprecedented progress since
    1950?
   What factors are responsible for accelerated development?
   Are high growth rates sustainable?
   What are the real limits to development?
   What is the source of the repeated crises & threats to human
    development?
   Why is it that every time we solve one problem, weseem to
    create another one?
   If the world’s response to crisis is inadequate, are we capable
    of a different response? If so, how would we define it?     10
   Do we as leaders of thought act differently in our own lives?
Limits to Development




11
Population Projections
                   9 billion



     6.7 billion


  1 billion


                               More education



                                                12
Limits to Development

Viewing development as a physical
process, the limits are apparent
   Land
                   Malthus on Population
   Food
   Water
   Energy
   Pollution
   Climate Change

                                           13
        Population Explosion
   Result of rapid unidimensional advances in
    medical & agricultural technology
       Saved 100 million lives in India b/n 1950-1980
   Malthus did not conceive of
     Birth Control
     Green Revolution
     Impact of education & income on birth rates

   Problems created in one way are often solved in
    another way
                                                         14
World Food Production Index 1961-2003
    Food Production                     170%




                                        40%




                                         15
  The Food Challenge Remains
Food challenge remains




                               16
Comparative Tomato Yields
                      tons per acre

             California avg          40

             California high         60

             India                   10

             S. India high           38
                                       18
Global Water Consumption
        7 fold increase since 1900




                                     19
Excess Water Supply




                      20
Water Demand




               21
       Scope for Water Conservation

   80% of water in India is consumed for agriculture
   Water productivity in agriculture is extremely low
   California farmer produces 35 x more cotton/liter of H20
   Furrow irrigation reduces water consumption 50-70%
   Deep chiseling can 2x yields & half water usage
   RWH can replenish 10 yrs consumption in one year
   Normally takes 1000 liters of water per kg of vegetables,
    but Dutch have done it with 1.4 liters.
                                                           22
     Tomato with furrows in TN




Improved technology consumed 1/3rd of the water
Achieved 3.2 x higher yield (38 tons)
                                             23
10-fold increase in water productivity
        Coal Problem

   William Stanley Jevons 1835-82
   In 1865 UK led the world in GDP and per capita
    income & produced 60% of the world’s coal output.
   Jevons foresaw severe coal shortages
   Recommended mass emigration to USA & Australia
   UK coal consumption is now
       10% of the peak level in 1913
       25% of the level in 1975
       7% of total UK energy

                                                   24
Energy Consumption & GDP per capita




                                40-50%
                                 lower




                                         25
           Energy Intensity 1980-2000 energy
                                     Global
                                    Constant $$ PPP
                                          Constant $$ PPP
                                          intensity to
Constant PPP $
                                          decline 50%
                                          by 2030 (IEA)




                                                     27
       McKinsey Energy Studies

   Investment in energy efficiency can half the
    growth in global energy demand, equivalent to
    $900 billion in savings a year from 2020.




                                                    28
Resources




29
What is a resource?

 Resources  are inputs for
  carrying out any activity.
 Mind discovering a use for
  anything creates a resource.
 Resources make other
  resources more productive.
                                 30
    Silicon

 Sand
 Bricks

 Cement

 Glass

 Transistors

 Fiber optics

 Integrated circuits


                        31
     Physical Resources

   Land
   Water
   Minerals     Non-renewable – finite, scarce
   Coal
   Oil
   Solar
   Wind
   Geothermal   Renewable – Abundant
   Hydrogen

                                                  32
 Social or Organizational Resources

Organizations multiply human productivity
 Language

 Law

 Markets

 Money

 Media

 Green Revolution

 Education
                                            33
                      Gap in Education - India Vs Higher countries - 2004
                      Educational Potential
         180                                             170
         160
         140                            118
         120          100         107         106
                                                                                   India
Values




         100                82                                           89
                                                               78                  Top Performer
          80     61
          60                                        52                             World Average
          40                                                                  24
          20                                                        11
           0
               Adult Literacy (%) GER - Primary GER - Secondary GER - Tertiary

                                  Gross Enrollment Level
                                      Parameters                                            34
  Mental Resources

Technology
Information
Knowledge
Creativity


“Unlike material resources, information &
knowledge are not lost when you give
them away.”       Harlan Cleveland

                                            35
 Internet as Mental Organization
         multiplies human capabilities &
 Internet
 extends social organization 1000-fold
   Global social networking
   Global access to information
   Global free communication
   Global transactions

 Thepotential impact on productivity of
 resources & quality of life is incalculable
                                           36
Psychological Resources

 Rising  expectations
 Skills & capacities

 Culture

 Values

 Trust


                          37
      Theory of Resources
 Vast potential to increase resource productivity &
  decrease resource consumption (waste)
 Non-physical resources enhance productivity of
  physical resources
 Non-material resources become increasingly
  important at higher levels of development
 Non-material resources are essentially unlimited in
  potential
 Human beings are the only real resource
                                                   38
        Does the requirement of the sustainable world
        imply limit to growth and development?
   Creative capacity of human beings implies a
    possibility of a continuous increase of human capital
    and social capital and of increasing freedom and
    number of options.

   The greatest obstacles are individual and social
    inner limits - psychological, cultural and political.
    “The most valuable assets humankind can count
    on..to stop the decline and to prepare for the future
    are to be found in the still untapped resources of
    comprehension, vision and creativity..inherent in
    every human being.”
                       A. Peccei, Agenda for the End of the Century
                                                                  39
        Why do humans create problems?
   We learn by trial & error – “evolving from unconsciousness
    & ignorance to knowledge”
   Our approach to knowledge is fragmented &
    compartmentalized, focused on the part, not the whole
   We know more about the world around us, than about
    ourselves. We are unconscious of the process of how we
    learn, change and develop
   Our motive for learning is largely personal & self-
    interested, rather than objective and rational
   We are ourselves products of nature’s evolution which is
    subconscious. Can we become conscious of the process
    of social evolution by which we change?                 40
New Paradigm

 “We need a totally new paradigm for
 solving problems through knowledge
 without creating other problems in the
 process.”
                          Pushpa Bhargava




                                            41
      Conclusions
 Development challenges & threats come to make
  us more conscious
 Humanity evolves by becoming more conscious &
  developing more effective social organization
 The increasing rates of development are due to a
  progressive evolution of mental consciousness
 The threat of climate change compels us to
  accelerate that evolution of consciousness & to
  evolve effective social organization at the global
  level
                                                  42
Need for a theory of social evolution

 “Thinking on development is the greatest
 intellectual challenge of the coming
 years.”
                     Boutros Boutros Ghali




                                             43

				
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