Max wins

W
Shared by: juanagui
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13
posted:
4/28/2009
language:
English
pages:
3
Document Sample
scope of work template
							League Competitions (max number of wins)
     0 = team #1's advantage           Max =       8      3

                                           Max >= 9?      0

Game # Team A Team B   Rand # Winner   Team #   Wins Team #   Run # Max >= 9?
     1      1      2   0.1747      1        1      5      1       1         0
     2      1      3   0.5606      3        2      5      2       2         0
     3      1      4   0.2910      1        3      8      3       3         0
     4      1      5   0.3001      1        4      4      4       4         0
     5      1      6   0.4068      1        5      3      5       5         0
     6      1      7   0.0801      1        6      4      6       6         0
     7      1      8   0.7214      8        7      5      7       7         0
     8      1      9   0.6452      9        8      5      8       8         0
     9      1     10   0.9088     10        9      5      9       9         0
   10       1     11   0.7170     11       10      6     10      10         0
   11       2      3   0.9964      3       11      5     11      11         0
   12       2      4   0.1962      2                             12         0
   13       2      5   0.1259      2                             13         0
   14       2      6   0.1664      2                             14         0
   15       2      7   0.2911      2                             15         0
   16       2      8   0.5509      8                             16         0
   17       2      9   0.8691      9                             17         0
   18       2     10   0.3810      2                             18         0
   19       2     11   0.8795     11                             19         0
   20       3      4   0.6556      4                             20         0
   21       3      5   0.3292      3                             21         0
   22       3      6   0.2728      3                             22         0
   23       3      7   0.1044      3                             23         0
   24       3      8   0.9795      8                             24         1
   25       3      9   0.4902      3                             25         0
26    3   10   0.1315    3     26   1
27    3   11   0.1590    3     27   0
28    4    5   0.9917    5     28   0
29    4    6   0.1387    4     29   0
30    4    7   0.7503    7     30   0
31    4    8   0.3932    4     31   1
32    4    9   0.2111    4     32   0
33    4   10   0.8746   10     33   0
34    4   11   0.9458   11     34   0
35    5    6   0.8119    6     35   0
36    5    7   0.3381    5     36   0
37    5    8   0.7247    8     37   0
38    5    9   1.0000    9     38   0
39    5   10   0.5213   10     39   0
40    5   11   0.3019    5     40   0
41    6    7   0.7398    7     41   0
42    6    8   0.1096    6     42   0
43    6    9   0.5076    9     43   0
44    6   10   0.0466    6     44   0
45    6   11   0.4430    6     45   0
46    7    8   0.0260    7     46   0
47    7    9   0.3167    7     47   0
48    7   10   0.5613   10     48   0
49    7   11   0.4630    7     49   0
50    8    9   0.7214    9     50   0
51    8   10   0.0443    8     51   1
52    8   11   0.9046   11     52   0
53    9   10   0.8289   10     53   0
54    9   11   0.7034   11     54   0
55   10   11   0.0602   10     55   0
                               56   0
                              999   0
                             1000   0
Analysis
               0.126 = fraction of time that the champion won at least 9 games
                       (= estimate of the probability that the champion will win at least 9 games)
           0.332015 = standard deviation of the things averaged above
           0.010499 = SE in the estimate of the probability that the champion will win at least 9 games

           0.105421 = lower end of a 95% CI for the probability
           0.146579 = upper end of a 95% CI for the probability

						
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