Max wins
Document Sample


League Competitions (max number of wins)
0 = team #1's advantage Max = 8 3
Max >= 9? 0
Game # Team A Team B Rand # Winner Team # Wins Team # Run # Max >= 9?
1 1 2 0.1747 1 1 5 1 1 0
2 1 3 0.5606 3 2 5 2 2 0
3 1 4 0.2910 1 3 8 3 3 0
4 1 5 0.3001 1 4 4 4 4 0
5 1 6 0.4068 1 5 3 5 5 0
6 1 7 0.0801 1 6 4 6 6 0
7 1 8 0.7214 8 7 5 7 7 0
8 1 9 0.6452 9 8 5 8 8 0
9 1 10 0.9088 10 9 5 9 9 0
10 1 11 0.7170 11 10 6 10 10 0
11 2 3 0.9964 3 11 5 11 11 0
12 2 4 0.1962 2 12 0
13 2 5 0.1259 2 13 0
14 2 6 0.1664 2 14 0
15 2 7 0.2911 2 15 0
16 2 8 0.5509 8 16 0
17 2 9 0.8691 9 17 0
18 2 10 0.3810 2 18 0
19 2 11 0.8795 11 19 0
20 3 4 0.6556 4 20 0
21 3 5 0.3292 3 21 0
22 3 6 0.2728 3 22 0
23 3 7 0.1044 3 23 0
24 3 8 0.9795 8 24 1
25 3 9 0.4902 3 25 0
26 3 10 0.1315 3 26 1
27 3 11 0.1590 3 27 0
28 4 5 0.9917 5 28 0
29 4 6 0.1387 4 29 0
30 4 7 0.7503 7 30 0
31 4 8 0.3932 4 31 1
32 4 9 0.2111 4 32 0
33 4 10 0.8746 10 33 0
34 4 11 0.9458 11 34 0
35 5 6 0.8119 6 35 0
36 5 7 0.3381 5 36 0
37 5 8 0.7247 8 37 0
38 5 9 1.0000 9 38 0
39 5 10 0.5213 10 39 0
40 5 11 0.3019 5 40 0
41 6 7 0.7398 7 41 0
42 6 8 0.1096 6 42 0
43 6 9 0.5076 9 43 0
44 6 10 0.0466 6 44 0
45 6 11 0.4430 6 45 0
46 7 8 0.0260 7 46 0
47 7 9 0.3167 7 47 0
48 7 10 0.5613 10 48 0
49 7 11 0.4630 7 49 0
50 8 9 0.7214 9 50 0
51 8 10 0.0443 8 51 1
52 8 11 0.9046 11 52 0
53 9 10 0.8289 10 53 0
54 9 11 0.7034 11 54 0
55 10 11 0.0602 10 55 0
56 0
999 0
1000 0
Analysis
0.126 = fraction of time that the champion won at least 9 games
(= estimate of the probability that the champion will win at least 9 games)
0.332015 = standard deviation of the things averaged above
0.010499 = SE in the estimate of the probability that the champion will win at least 9 games
0.105421 = lower end of a 95% CI for the probability
0.146579 = upper end of a 95% CI for the probability
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