Regional Prosperity Why Some Communities Prosper While Others Do by juanagui

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									         Regional Prosperity:
    Why Some Communities Prosper
        While Others Do Not
                  Paper presented at the
              48th annual conference of the
      Association of Collegiate Schools of Planning


Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                         October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                        isserman@uiuc.edu
                                Part of Paper
                                   Sextet
1.       Isserman, 2005. In the national interest: Defining rural correctly for
         research and policy. International Regional Science Review 28,4: 465-499.
2.       Isserman, 2007. Getting state policy right: Definitions, growth, and
         program eligibility. Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy 37,1: 73-79..
3.       Feser and Isserman, 2007. Harnessing growth spillovers for rural
         development: The effects of regional spatial structure.
4.       Feser and Isserman, 2007. The rural role in national value chains and
         regional clusters.
5.       Warren and Isserman, 2006. Industrialization of U.S. agriculture: The new
         geography of animal production and slaughter.
6.       Isserman, Feser, and Warren. 2007. Why some communities prosper and
         others do not.




     Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                                          October 20, 2007
     University of Illinois                                         isserman@uiuc.edu
            Prosperity—A New Lens
• Regional competitiveness              • Regional coordination
• Regional growth                       • Regional cooperation

                Regional distress Regional advocacy

                             Regional prosperity
                             – People oriented
                             – Outcome focused
                             – Results driven

  Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                                October 20, 2007
  University of Illinois                               isserman@uiuc.edu
              Prosperity =
Better than the Nation on Four Criteria
1.      Lower unemployment rate
2.      Lower poverty rate
3.      Lower high school drop out rate, age 16-19
4.      Lower rate of housing units with problems
      –     Crowded
      –     Lacking complete plumbing
      –     Lacking complete kitchen
      –     Monthly cost < 30% of income
     Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                  October 20, 2007
     University of Illinois                 isserman@uiuc.edu
          Prosperity Has Regional and
             Metropolitan Patterns




                           Prosperity Scale
                            4    3   2    1   0



Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                             October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                            isserman@uiuc.edu
                           0

                               1

                                   2

                                       3

                                           4




Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                          October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                         isserman@uiuc.edu
           Metropolitan, Nonmetropolitan Obscures




               Urban, Mixed, Rural Makes Clearer




Rural Counties by Urban Integration Shows Both Matter




Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                              October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                             isserman@uiuc.edu
         289 Prosperous Rural Non-core Counties (21% of 1,371)




Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                                     October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                                    isserman@uiuc.edu
          Rural Non-Core Counties =
              Rural Communities




                           Rural/Non-core




Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                       October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                      isserman@uiuc.edu
                           Findings

              Comparison of Mean Values
              Multivariate Spatial Regression


Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                           October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                          isserman@uiuc.edu
     Geography and Transportation
• Location matters little
   – Distances to urban areas
   – Adjacency to micropolitan and metropolitan areas
   – Urban areas within the county
• Nearby economic conditions matter little
   – Employment within 30, 45, and 60 miles
   – Employment change within 30, 45, and 60 miles
• Distances to airports matter little
• Interstate and primary highways matter little
  Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                      October 20, 2007
  University of Illinois                     isserman@uiuc.edu
            Amenities and Prosperity
• Prosperous counties are worse on amenity scale
  –   Colder winters
  –   Flatter topographies
  –   Less water
  –   Fewer retirement and recreation counties

                        Different from growth literature findings



 Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                                October 20, 2007
 University of Illinois                               isserman@uiuc.edu
  Economy: More Private Sector Jobs, More Foot-loose Manufacturing




Prof. Andrew M. Isserman   Jobs per 1000 People             October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                                   isserman@uiuc.edu
                      Prosperous Have More Education




Prof. Andrew M. Isserman      Per 1000 People             October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                                 isserman@uiuc.edu
                    Prosperous Have More Social Capital




Prof. Andrew M. Isserman      Per 1000 People                October 20, 2007
University of Illinois                                    isserman@uiuc.edu
 Rural with a Minority Concentration—
     Less than 1 in 20 Prosperous
Group                         No. Counties   No. of those
                             More than 10%   Prosperous
Black                             260             6

American Indian                   98              1

Hispanic                         181             17

Norwegian                        149             70

  Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                           October 20, 2007
  University of Illinois                          isserman@uiuc.edu
     Both Region and Race Matter




Prof. Andrew M. Isserman       October 20, 2007
University of Illinois      isserman@uiuc.edu
Biggest Problem is Poverty in South and
 Rocky Mountains, Unemployment in
  Mideast, Far West, and Great Lakes




 Prof. Andrew M. Isserman         October 20, 2007
 University of Illinois        isserman@uiuc.edu
 A Comprehensive, Multivariate Picture


• Stepwise algorithm to minimize the Akaike
  Information Criterion
• Spatial lag with Thiessen Polygons
• Exploratory specification search




 Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                 October 20, 2007
 University of Illinois                isserman@uiuc.edu
               Most Important Variables
            Positive                       Negative
High school completion         American Indian
College degrees, 25-44         African-American or Black
Sunshine days                  Unequal income distribution
Private nonfarm jobs           Hills and mountains
Foot-loose and resource        Industrial specialization
   manufacturing               Jobs relative to employed
Govt. payments to farming         residents
Max population same ancestry   Co. workforce living in county
Socially engaged religions     Knowledge workers
Elderly                        Male-female high school gap
                               Density
Adjusted R2 = 0.84             Retirement county

  Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                           October 20, 2007
  University of Illinois                          isserman@uiuc.edu
                     A General Portrait
A prosperous non-core rural county has
   –   higher education levels
   –   more private sector jobs
   –   a more diverse economy
   –   more sunshine
   –   more farming and more farm payments
   –   more elderly
   –   more adherents to civically engaged religions
   –   more people with the same ancestry
   –   more equal income distribution
   –   fewer residents who are not white
  Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                                October 20, 2007
  University of Illinois                               isserman@uiuc.edu
          Planning Implications and
                Conclusions




Prof. Andrew M. Isserman            October 20, 2007
University of Illinois           isserman@uiuc.edu
                            Implications
1. Definition
  •     The prosperity criteria should be policy foci
2. Geography
  •     Geography is not destiny
3. Education
  •     The most important policy tool?
4. Social capital
  •     Relationships and values that tie people together
        matter
 Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                           October 20, 2007
 University of Illinois                          isserman@uiuc.edu
                            Implications
5. Economy
  •     Jobs, education, and income distribution matter
6. Race
  •      Color blind is not good enough




 Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                         October 20, 2007
 University of Illinois                        isserman@uiuc.edu
                            Conclusions
A. The link between income equality and
   prosperity suggests the importance of building
   the middle class through upward mobility to
   reduce household income inequality.
B. Grow the local economy, make available local
   college options, encourage and help students
   complete school, and build on local social
   capital are consistent with the findings.

 Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                    October 20, 2007
 University of Illinois                   isserman@uiuc.edu
                             Conclusions
C. A community sharing common values, traditions, and
   institutions whose residents belong to socially
   engaged religious groups and have other identities
   that bind people together is more likely to be
   prosperous.
D. Geographical factors that are impossible or expensive
   to change, including climate and distances to cities
   and major airports, are relatively unimportant in
   distinguishing between prosperous and other places.

  Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                      October 20, 2007
  University of Illinois                     isserman@uiuc.edu
                             Conclusions
E. The strong empirical findings for counties with
   American Indian and black populations are forceful
   reminders that this nation has not overcome the
   legacies of past racial policies. None of the other
   variables can explain the dearth of prosperous places
   with American Indian or black populations.
F. This finding argues against “color-blind” policy that
   ignores race. Conditions are worse than other factors
   predict. Major initiatives seem necessary, just, and
   overdue.
  Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                       October 20, 2007
  University of Illinois                      isserman@uiuc.edu
                             Conclusions
G. There is no negative Hispanic effect after the other
   variables are considered. A possible explanation is
   that the rural location pattern of Hispanic Americans
   is more market driven, newer, and more natural than
   the American Indian and black location patterns,
   which still reflect reservation and slavery policies.
H. Prosperity and growth have different determinants
   and correlates. Prosperity is a distinct, important lens
   through which to examine regional development and
   to design and evaluate regional plans and policies.
  Prof. Andrew M. Isserman                         October 20, 2007
  University of Illinois                        isserman@uiuc.edu

								
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