GRANDES DESAFIOS by pengxiuhui

VIEWS: 34 PAGES: 32

									            CLIMATE CHANGE, CLEAN ENERGIES AND
            SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN MEXICO




          GENERAL DIRECTION OF ENERGY AND EXTRACTIVE
                          ACTIVITIES




                                                       1
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                                       CONTENT




   1. Energy and Climate Change

   2. Energy situation

   3. Externalities from thermoelectric
      generation

   4. Opportunity areas




                                                 2
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            1. Energy and Climate Change




                                           3
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             Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions
                         (1990-2020)
                                     750                                           75,000
           Thousands of petajoules




                                     500                                           50,000




                                                                                            Millions of metric tons
                                     250                                           25,000




                                     -                                             -
                                           1990          1999   2010        2020

                                           Energy consumption      CO2 emissions

   Source: EIA. 2001
                                                                                                                      4
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                 Gross Internal Product and Energy
                            Consumption
                                                                             (Selected economies)



                                       12,000                                                                                                                                    120,000



                                        9,000                                                                                                                                    90,000
                  Bilions of dollars




                                                                                                                                                                                          Petajoules
                                        6,000                                                                                                                                    60,000



                                        3,000                                                                                                                                    30,000



                                          -                                                                                                                                      -




                                                                                                                                  India
                                                                                                        China


                                                                                                                         Canada
                                                                Japan
                                                                        Germany




                                                                                                                                          Mexico
                                                                                                                Brazil




                                                                                                                                                   Korea
                                                                                                Italy




                                                                                                                                                                     Australia
                                                                                                                                                           Holland
                                                                                  France
                                                United States




                                                                                           UK




                                                                                                                                                    Gross Internal Product
                                                                                                                                                    Energy consumption


   SORUCE: IEA.2000
                                                                                                                                                                                                       5
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                                                                                                                                            Percentage of GHG emissions




                                                                                                                                                     10%
                                                                                                                                                                          15 %
                                                                                                                                                                                 20 %




                                                                                                                                       0%
                                                                                                                                            5%
                                                                                                                              USA
                                                                                                                            China
                                                                                                                           EU (25)




                                                                                                        Anex 1 Countries
                                                                                                                            Russia




                                                                                 No Anex 1 Countries
                                                                                                                              India




                                       Source: World Resources Institute, 2004
Río de Janeiro, 10 and 11 july, 2006
                                                                                                                           Japan
                                                                                                                  Germnay
                                                                                                                             Brazil
                                                                                                                           Canada
                                                                                                                               UK
                                                                                                                              Italia
                                                                                                       South Korea
                                                                                                                           Ukrania
                                                                                                                                                                                        (Selected economies)
                                                                                                                                                                                                      CO2 Emissions




                                                                                                                           Mexico
                                                                                                                           France
                                                                                                                                                   1.5%
                                                                                                                                                           (13th place)




                                                                                                              Indonesia
                                                                                                                    Australia
                                                                                                                               Iran
                                                                                                        South Africa
                                                                                                                           Spain
                                                                                                                           Poland
                                                                                                                           Turkey
                                                                                                         Saudi Arabia
                                                                                                               Argentina
                                                                                                                     Pakistan
                                       6
          Sectorial Emissions of CO2 in Mexico (1996)

.




                                                            Waste
                                                             9%                              Combustion
                                                                                                31%
            Forest Sector
                24%




               Agriculture &
                Live Stock                                                                             Transport
                    8%                                                                                    15%
                                           Industrial                   Fugitive
                                           processes                   emissions
                                              6%                          7%



              Source: Comité Intersecretarial sobre Cambio Climático, México. Segunda Comunicación Nacional ante la Convención
              Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático (México: SEMARNAT-INE, 2001)
                                                                                                                                 7
    Río de Janeiro, 10 and 11 july, 2006
            GHG Emissions in CO2eq Mexico (1996)


                                                 N20 [nitrous oxide]
                      CH4 [methane]                       2%
                           23%




                                                                                          CO2 [carbon
                                                                                         dioxide] 75%


        Source: Comité Intersecretarial sobre Cambio Climático, México. Segunda
        Comunicación Nacional ante la Convención Marco de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio
        Climático (México: SEMARNAT-INE, 2001)
                                                                                                        8
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                       2. Energy situation




                                             9
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                       Energy Balance of Mexico


    • In 2003 the production of primary energy in Mexico
      was 10,060 PJ, and only 6.1% were from renewable
      energy, including cane firewood and bagasse.


                                                     Natural Gas
                                                       18.5%

               Petroleum
                73.4%                                        Coal
                                                             1.9%
                                                             Nuclear
                                                              1.1%
                                                       Renewables (hydro and geo)
                                                             2.6%
                                       Cane firewood and bagasse
                                                 3.5%
Source: SENER. 2004
                                                                                    10
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                              Distribution of Power Plants

                                                            Wind             2,17     MW

                                                        Geothermal           959,50   MW

                                                            Nuclear          1 364.88 MW

                                                             Coal            2 600,00 MW

                                                             Hydroelectric   9 663,82 MW

                                                             Steam           23 270,44 MW

                                                            PIE               7 264,90 MW




                                                    Total                               W
                                                                              45 125,71 M




 Fuente: Informe de operación CFE, Sep. 2004
                                                                                            11
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                     Effective Generation Capacity

                  2003                                                     2004
                Capacity                                                   Capacity
                                          Type of generation
                (MW)                                                       (MW)
                 14 282.50                      Vapor                        14 282.50
                  2 100.00                      Dual                          2 100.00
                  2 889.78                    Turbogas                        3 067.80
                  3 847.92                 Combined cycle                     4 226.90
                                          Combined cycle IIP                  6 757.70
                      143.43             Internal combustion                    140.30
                    9 615.15                   Hydraulic                      9 593.20
                    2 600.00                      Coal                        2 600.00
                    1 364.88                   Nuclear                        1 364.90
                      959.50                 Geothermal                         959.50
                        2.21                     Wind                             2.20
                        0.00              Diesel mobile plants                    3.10
                   37 805.37                   TOTAL                         45 125.71
Source: Informe de operación 2003 y Subdirección de Generación 2004, CFE
                                                                                         12
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     3. Externalities from thermoelectric
                    generation




                                            13
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                           Externalities Evaluation

     •    Long term energy total costs do not include indirect costs associated
          with the effects (negative or possitive) of the energy sector such as:

           Environmental and health impacts
           Social benefits in low income zones
           Deplation of non renewable resources
           Energy price volatility
           Reliance and safety in the provision

     •    Environmental externalities evaluation of pollution emissions from 13
          bigger plants of the country.




                                                                                   14
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                           Externalities Evaluation

•   The externalities were calculated in about 465 million of dollars annual,
    considering impacts in health.
•   Price internalization of electricity would imply increments between 0.12 y
    0.83 cents of dollar/kWh, that is between 3 y 17% of the cost for kWh.
•   This estimation do not includes other impacts such as climate change and
    affectations to other economic activities (agriculture, fishering, tourism, etc.)




                                                                                    15
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                           External costs in health
                             (millions of dollars)

                                   POLLUTANT AGENT
       REGION                                           TOTAL
                            PM10        SO2      NOX
    Tuxpan                     3.5      99.6      3.9   107.0
    Manzanillo                 2.5      66.4      2.8    71.7
    Tula                      11.2      54.1      2.1    67.4
    Petacalco                  1.7      52.3      2.2    56.1
    Río Escond.                1.0      14.0     33.2    48.3
    Salamanca                  5.8      32.8      1.2    39.8
    Altamira                   3.9      34.1      1.3    39.3
    Mazatlán                   1.7      18.1      0.7    20.5
    Pto Libertad               0.0       7.9      0.3    8.2
    Samalayuca                 0.1       3.2      0.1    3.5
    Rosarito                   0.7       2.1      0.3    3.0
           Total             32.0       384.7    48.2   464.9

                                                                16
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                         4. Opportunity areas




                                                17
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                       Type of projects


       • Carbon sequestration                   • Energy sector
             – Reforestation                       – Energy efficiency
             – Aforestation                             •lighting,
       • Methane recovery                               • power,
             –   Waste management                       •ecotechnologies in
             –   Extraction of petroleum                housing,
             –   Minning                                • improvement in power
             –   Excreta management                     energy plants,
             –   Treatment plants of residual      – Cogeneration (CHP
                 waters                              Production)
       • Transport                                 – Fuels substitution
             – New technologies and modal          – Renowable energies
               change                                   •Wind
       • Destruction of                                 •Solar
         hidrofluorocarbon–23                           •Hydroelectric
                                                        •Biomass


                                                                                 18
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                           Potential projects, 2013


                                          Energy savings
         Investment opportunities                          MM Ton CO2
                                               (PJ)
Generation with renewables                    75.24          11.25
Generation of electricity with biogas         14.92           3.12
Cogeneration PEMEX                            92.08          13.82
Cogeneration industry                         170.66         25.62
Repowering in power plants                    177.37         21.25
Transmission lines                            55.00           8.28
Centralized generation in marine              39.46           2.32
platforms
Gasoline vehicles efficiency                  69.29           4.85
Recuperation transport of railway             17.00           1.50
road
                       Total                  711.02         93.41
                                                                        19
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CDM Projects in Mexico approved by the Intersecretarial
     Climate Change Commission, to July 3, 2006

                                          Num. of    CO2 reductions
                    Type of project       Projects    (Ktons/year)

   Management and disposition of animal     44           2440
   excreta

   Hydroelectric                             4            187

   Wind                                      2            532

   Cogeneration and energy efficiency        5            348

   Transport                                 1            33

   Incineration of HFC-23                    1           2155

   Methane burning in landfills              2            440

                           Total            65           6205
                                                                      20
   Río de Janeiro, 10 and 11 july, 2006
CDM Opportunity Areas in Pemex 2005-2008
           Identified prospects in each one of the opportunity areas

                                           PEP               PR   PGPB   PPQ

        Cogeneration       4                 2                      2

       CO2 Injection       3                 3

           Energy
          efficiency       3                                 1      1     11
                           8                                 2      5
       Reduction of
                           2                 1                      1
     Fugitive Emissions

      Reduction of         2
      Gas flares
                                              1               3           7
                           0                  0
                                       Campo Tres Hermanos
           Fuels
                           3                 3
        Substitution

           Steam
                           4                 4
          recovery

        Carbon sinks
                           1                                              1

     Total of projects    75                 23              15    18    19
         5.8 millions of CO2 / year of tons estimated
                                                                               21
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                                 CFE
              Potential of Projects under CDM scheme
GENERATION

1. Fuel change: Fuel oil  Natural gas

       - CT Monterrey                        (3 units of 75 MW)
       - CT Pdte. Juárez                     (4 units of 75 MW)
       - CT Francisco Pérez Ríos             (5 units of 300 MW)

2. Energy efficiency

       - Conventional plants  repowering (CT Salamanca)
                                             (total capacity 866 MW)
       - Turbogas plants     combined cycle

       - Neuronal networks for boiler optimization
                                   (efficiencies increment from 0,5 to 0,9%)

3. Increase in the use of renewable energy resources:

       - Wind Energy Plant “La Venta II”     (75 MW)
       - Hybrid Project CCC Mexicali – Solar Camp (2 units of 225 MW)
                                                                               22
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                                     CFE
                      Potential of Projects under CDM

  Transmission Areas

   Looses in transmission lines at national level


  Distribution Areas

   Integral Systematic Saving Program (ASI)
                                        (65 795 MW-h saved 1997 - 2003)
   Non technical looses in the distribution network
                                        (15% a national level)




                                                                          23
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                       CFE
Prospective of Avoided Emissions for CDM Projects

   CDM             Capacity            Generation     Fuel oil       CO2
  Project           (MW)               (GW-year)     (x 103 m3)      (t)
 Undimotriz
Santa Rosalita             5                   438           99       301 972

Hydroelectric
  Jiliapan               40                  7 271       1 650       5 012 740

     ASI *                                   2 602         591       1 794 150

 Manzanillo
                       700             127 239 000      28 883      87 772 947
 Complex

  Rosarito             320              31 536 000       7 159      21 742 004

La Venta II **           50                  3 504         795       2 415 778

        TOTAL                          61 793 715     143 384     131 118 482
                                                                             24
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Landfills: Potential of reduction

                                 Tijuana, B.C.
                               150 ktons CO2 eq
                                                            Cd. Juárez, Ch.
                                     Mexicali, B.C.


                                         Hermosillo, Son.
                                                              Chih, Ch.
                                                                              Saltillo, Coah.
                                                                Torreón, Coah.
                                                                60 ktons CO2 eq          Nuevo Laredo, Tamps.

                                      Los Mochis, Sin.                               Monterrey, N.L. II
                                      30 ktons CO2 eq                                120 ktons CO2 eq
                                                                                                Reynosa, Tamps.




                                                                    Aguascalientes, Ags
                                                                                      León, Gto.
                                                                                    90 ktons CO2 eq
                                                  Guadalajara, Jal.                   Querétaro, Qro..
                                                  150 ktons CO2 eq                                  Puebla, Pue.
                                                                                Tlalnepantla, Edomex.



Source: SEMARNAT, SEDESOL,                                                                                         25
         Río de Janeiro, 10
BANOBRAS, SENER.              and 11 july, 2006
Pcitures: SETASA-PROACTIVA.
Excrete management: Strategic states and potencial of reduction



                                        6 Sonora
                                    571,600 Ton CO2
                                               3 pilote power plants


                  1 Baja California
                  21,601 Ton CO2
                                                                         1 Nuevo León
                                                                        20,984 Ton CO2
                                                                                3 power plants




                                                                        2 Guanajuato
                                                                         y Querétaro
Source: UNFCCC. Proyectos           1 power plants                     175,192 Ton CO2
Registrads.
Semarnat. CICC Proyectos
Aprobados                                  4 Jalisco
Agcert – México                        402,295 Ton CO2

                                Strategic states
                                                                                                 26
      Río de Janeiro, 10 and 11 july, 2006
    Potential estimated of CDM Projects in Mexico
          (millions of tons of CO2 eq. /year)

                                                                                             (4)
                                                                              (3)      4
                                   (1)                                                   REDUCTION         (5)
                                                          (2)               % OF
                                  GEI                3                                OF 52 PROJECTS     % OF
       SOURCE                                          POTENTIAL          NATIONAL
                               NATIONAL                                                 TO MAY 1st,    POTENTIAL
                                                        REDUCTIONS        POTENTIAL
                               EMISSIONS                                                    2006.        (4)/(2)
                                                                            (2)/(1)


 USE OF FOSIL FUELS.-
        REDUCTIONS
                               1
 FOR ENERGY EFICIENCY              273.22               16.50               6.0%           1.87          11%
 OR USE OF RENEWABLE
        ENERGY



                                1
      TRANSPORT                     114.6               0.60                0.5%           0.03           6%

 CAPTURE AND USE OF                1
 FUGITIVE EMISSIONS                    39.1              5.0               12.8%           1.80          36%

                                   1
INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES                   52.6              5.0                9.5%           3.75          75%
                                   2
        WASTE                          61.7              4,0                6.5%           2.63          66%

        TOTAL                   541.2                  33.10               6.0%            10.08         32%
      1.- INE EMISSIONS 2002
      2.- INE EMISSIONS 1996            4.-WITH APPROVAL LETTERS OR NON
                                                    OBJECTION
      3.- ESTIMATED DGAPCC
                                                                                                               27
Río de Janeiro, 10 and 11 july, 2006
                                       Biofuels

                       Scenaria for introducing ethanol
                                                     Ethanol demand
                          Scenaria
                                                  (Annual millions of liters)


  1. Substitution of methanol for ethanol                    200



  2. Incorporation of ethanol as oxigenant in
  metropolitan zones + mix of 10% in the                 600 – 1300
  gasolines of the rest of the country



  3. Mix of 5% to 10% in gasolines                      1750 – 3500


                                                                                28
Río de Janeiro, 10 and 11 july, 2006
                                       Biodiesel


     1. Diesel represents more than a third of the total consumption
        of petroleum derivates.


     2. Biodiesel is a renewable fuel produced from vegetable or
        animal oils or rejected fats, that represents a substitute with
        environmental advantages.


     3. Many countries had already started promoting this fuel, in
        order to displace the consumption of fossil energy. In
        Europe, for example, the annual demand of biodiesel
        exceeds one billion liters.


                                                                          29
Río de Janeiro, 10 and 11 july, 2006
                         Environmental Advantages

  A mix of only 20% de biodiesel, reduces in more than 10% the
  emission of not burned HC carbon monoxide and particles.
  Furthermore, since it doesn´t has sulphur, it will allow the use of
  modern technologies of control when it is used as pure fuel.

                                  Transport sector (use of fuels)
                                                       8%
                      27%




                    6%                                               47%

                                12%

                                   Regular      Premium      Other
                    LPG                                                    Diesel
                                  Gasoline      Gasoline
                                                                                    30
Río de Janeiro, 10 and 11 july, 2006
                 Scenaria for introducing biodiesel


                                                Demand of
                                                  biodiesel
                               Scenaria
                                                (thousands
                                                  m3/year)


  1. Mix of 5% biodiesel with PEMEX diesel        963.2



  2. Mix of 10% biodiesel with PEMEX diesel       1926.8



  3. Mix of 20% biodiesel with PEMEX Diesel       3853.7

                                                              31
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                     Biomass as energy resource


                                       •   Natural direct wood:
                                           748-1,287 PJ/año
•   Forestry resources                 •   Direct wood from energetic
    Totale: 1517-2056 PJ/año               plantations:
                                           716 PJ/año
                                       •   Natural indirect wood
                                           (waste): 53 PJ/año

•   Agriculture waste
    Totale: 886 PJ/año                 • Cane bagasse, rice husk,
                                         coconut rind and sugar
                                         cane, and struble from the
                                         milpa


•   For fuels                          • Biodiesel: oil palm, colza,
    (biodiesel and etanol)               soya, ricine oil, sorghum,
     Totale: 200PJ/year.                 and sunflower)
                                       • Etanol: sugar cane y corn
                                                                        32
Río de Janeiro, 10 and 11 july, 2006

								
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