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Claremont McKenna - UCLA Anderson Forecast for the Inland Empire

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ONTARIO, Calif.--(EON: Enhanced Online News)--In the first annual Inland Empire Forecast presented by Claremont McKenna College and the UCLA Anderson Forecast, economists predict double-digit unemployment in the Inland Empire to continue until 2014. The Forecast was presented today at the inaugural CMC-UCLA Inland Empire Forecast Economic Conference at Citizens Business Bank Arena in Ontario, CA. “The Inland Empire economy has started to stabilize and rebound in some sectors, particularly in ret a st

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									Claremont McKenna - UCLA Anderson Forecast
for the Inland Empire
IE Economy to Continue Double Digit Unemployment Until 2014

October 06, 2010 04:03 AM Eastern Daylight Time  

ONTARIO, Calif.--(EON: Enhanced Online News)--In the first annual Inland Empire Forecast presented by
Claremont McKenna College and the UCLA Anderson Forecast, economists predict double-digit unemployment in
the Inland Empire to continue until 2014. The Forecast was presented today at the inaugural CMC-UCLA Inland
Empire Forecast Economic Conference at Citizens Business Bank Arena in Ontario, CA.

“The Inland Empire economy has started to stabilize and rebound in some sectors, particularly in retail sales and
purchases of durable goods such as cars. We still have not seen a turnaround in the housing sector, although the
housing market has stabilized,” said Marc Weidenmier, associate professor of economics, Claremont McKenna
College and author of the report. “It will be a long, slow recovery that takes place over several years.” 

Real Estate in the Inland Empire has suffered by the recession and the sub-prime mortgage crisis with the price of
single-family homes decreasing from a peak of $380,000 in late 2007, to less than $200,000 - a decline of more
than 50 percent. The construction industry lost nearly 80 percent of its jobs over this same period the report reveals.
The logistics industry has also suffered from the recession with U.S. imports into the ports of Los Angeles and Long
Beach declined 28% and 42% respectively between October 2007 and March 2009.

Inland Empire retail sales have declined by more than 20 percent from the peak reached in the summer of 2006. The
government sector, which is the largest employer in the Inland Empire and accounts for approximately 20 percent of
the jobs in the metropolitan area, will remain weak for the foreseeable future given the large drop in tax revenues
from the recession. Government employment has declined 4% percent since December 2007.

The Inland Empire economy will gain from a rebound in Los Angeles and Orange Counties. The Inland Empire
forecast estimates that approximately 20 percent of the workers in the Inland Empire are employed in Los Angeles
and Orange County. Faster job growth in Los Angeles and Orange County should also boost the Inland Empire
economy.

“An additional boost may come from migration. The preliminary evidence on recession based migration shows an in-
migration to parts of the Inland Empire from Arizona,” according to a new study authored by UCLA Anderson
Forecast Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg. “Family connections and unemployment may be reversing some of the
migration patterns of recent years and though the magnitude is not yet known, it will tend to push up local demand,” 
said Nickelsburg.

Overall, economic recovery in the Inland Empire will be protracted and sluggish. Housing, logistics, and the retail
sector have experienced dramatic declines and are currently operating at a very low base compared to the rampant
economic activity achieved in the summer of 2006.

About Claremont McKenna College

Claremont McKenna College, established in 1946, is among the highest-ranked and most selective liberal arts
colleges in the nation. CMC excels in preparing students for leadership through the liberal arts in business, the
professions and public affairs. The College is home to more than 130 accomplished teacher- scholars who are
dedicated to teaching and to offering unparalleled opportunities for student collaboration in the research process.
Enrolling approximately 1,200 students, CMC combines highly-selective need-blind admission, innovative programs,
a 9-to-1 student-faculty ratio, ten research institutes, the impact of the seven-member Claremont College
Consortium, and a strong and committed network of alumni, to educate its graduates for a lifetime of leadership.
Visit CMC on the Web at www.cmc.edu.

About UCLA Anderson Forecast

UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and
the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California and the
strength of the state’s rebound since 1993. More recently, the Forecast was credited as the first major U.S.
economic forecasting group to declare the recession of 2001. Visit UCLA Anderson Forecast on the Web at
http://uclaforecast.com.

About UCLA Anderson School of Management

UCLA Anderson School of Management, established in 1935, is regarded among the leading business schools in the
world. UCLA Anderson faculty members are renowned for their teaching excellence and research in advancing
management thinking. Each year, UCLA Anderson provides management education to more than 1,800 students
enrolled in MBA, Fully-Employed MBA, Executive MBA, UCLA-NUS Global Executive MBA, Master of
Financial Engineering, and doctoral programs, and to more than 2,000 professional managers through executive
education programs. Combining highly selective admissions, varied and innovative learning programs, and a world-
wide network of 36,000 alumni, UCLA Anderson develops and prepares global leaders.

Contacts
UCLA Anderson School of Management
Hilary Rehder, 818-689-5551
or
Claremont McKenna College
Richard Rodner, 909-607-9099

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