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					         Remarks before the
    Computing Research Association

The Adequacy of the U.S. S&E Workforce:
      A QUANTITATIVE PERSPECTIVE

         Offshore Outsourcing


            John Sargent
            Senior Policy Analyst
       U.S. Department of Commerce
    Alarm Bells…
•   “… the nation may likely face severe shortages in SET workers…”
          – Land of Plenty, Commission on the Advancement of Women and Minorities in
             Science, Engineering, and Technology Development (CAWMSET)
•   “There is a quiet crisis building in the United States [that] stems from the gap
    between the nation’s growing need for scientists, engineers, and other
    technically skilled workers, and its production of them.”
          – The Quiet Crisis: Falling Short in Producing American Scientific and Technical
             Talent, Building Engineering and Science Talent (BEST)
•   “… U.S. need for the highest quality human capital in science, mathematics
    and engineering is not being met.”
          – Hart-Rudman Commission
•   "Our 1998 study found a shortage of 346,000 programmers, systems analysts
    and computer scientists."
          – ITAA president Harris Miller
•   "We are not training enough American scientists and engineers to retain our
    prosperity ...."
          – American Scientist magazine, 2001
•   “a serious deficit of scientists and engineers” resulting in “an evaporating
    dominance.”
          – Dan Goldin, former NASA administrator, 2001
Demand for S&E Workers
Recent Occupational Growth
Growth Rates

                                      Engineering                                                                   Physical/Life/Computer Sciences
       Average Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001                                                                         and Mathematics
                                                                                                                   Average Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001
  Electrical/Electronic
  Civil                                                                                                    Computer Sys Analysts/Scientists
  Aerospace                                                                                                Atmospheric/Space Scientists
  Engineers, n.e.c.                                                                                        Medical scientists
  Industrial
                                                                                                           Computer Programmers
  Mechanical
                                                                                                           Chemists
  Metallurgical/Materials
                                                                                                           Biological/Life Scientists
  Nuclear
                                                                                                           Geologists/Geodesists
  Petroleum
                                                                                                           Forestry/Conservation
  Chemical
                                                                                                           Mathematical Scientists
  Marine
                                                                                                           Agricultural/Food Scientists
  Mining
                                                                                                           Physical Scientists, n.e.c.
  Agricultural
                                                                                                           Physicists/Astronomers
                                          -15% -10%                  -5%          0%           5%    10%
                                                                                                                                                             -5%             0%             5%           10%    15%
                                                                                                           SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data
Recent Occupational Growth
Growth in Numbers
                                Employment Growth in S&E Occupations
                                                                  1996-2001, in thousands
    Computer Systems Analysts & Scientists
           Electrical/Electronic Engineers
                   Computer Programmers
                            Civil Engineers
                         Medical Scientists
                                   Chemists
                  Biological/Life Scientists
                     Aerospace Engineers
                           Engineers, n.e.c.
                        Atmospheric/Space
                       Industrial Engineers
                    Geologists/Geodesists
         Forestry/Conservation Scientists
            Mathematical Scientists, n.e.c.
                    Agricultural Engineers
                         Nuclear Engineers
               Agricultural/Food Scientists
        Metallurgical/Materials Engineers
                      Petroleum Engineers
                          Mining Engineers
                 Physical Scientists, n.e.c.
                   Physicists/Astronomers
                          Marine Engineers
                      Mechanical Engineer
                        Chemical Engineers
                                                                            -100         0        100   200   300   400   500   600   700   800
   SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce analysis of Department of Labor Current Population Survey data
Aggregate IT Employment
1999-2002


 3,000,000                                                Change, 1999-2000                 Change, 2000-2001                  Change, 2001-2002
                                                           Number: 295,880                   Number:-92,870                     Number:-42.090
                                                           Percent: +12.6%                    Percent: -3.5%                     Percent: -1.7%

 2,500,000



 2,000,000


 1,500,000



 1,000,000



   500,000



        -
                              1999                               2000                              2001                               2002
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-
2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm
IT Occupational Employment
1999-2002

           Computer and Information Systems Managers

                          Computer Hardware Engineers                                                                                     2002
   Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts                                                                                       2001
          Network and Computer Systems Administrators                                                                                     2000
                               Database Administrators                                                                                    1999
                           Computer Systems Analysts

                          Computer Support Specialists

        Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software

              Computer Software Engineers, Applications

                                Computer Programmers

          Computer and Information Scientists, Research


                                                          0        100,000         200,000        300,000         400,000         500,000        600,000

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey data,
2000-2002, http://www.bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm
    Change in IT Occupational Employment
    Number, 2001-2002

                                                 Computer Systems Analysts

               Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts

                      Network and Computer Systems Administrators

                                            Computer Hardware Engineers

                      Computer and Information Scientists, Research

                                                     Database Administrators

                        Computer and Information Systems Managers

                           Computer Software Engineers, Applications

                   Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software

                                              Computer Support Specialists

                                                      Computer Programmers

                                                                                      (50,000)    (40,000)    (30,000)    (20,000)    (10,000)      -        10,000   20,000   30,000
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002,
http://w w w .bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm
    Change in IT Occupational Employment
    Percentage, 2001-2002

        Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts

                                          Computer Systems Analysts

                Network and Computer Systems Administrators

                                      Computer Hardware Engineers

                  Computer and Information Systems Managers

                    Computer Software Engineers, Applications

                                               Database Administrators

             Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software

                                       Computer Support Specialists

               Computer and Information Scientists, Research

                                                Computer Programmers

                                                                                    -15%                -10%                 -5%                 0%          5%   10%

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002,
http://w w w .bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm
Salary Growth
                                  Annual Average Salary Increases, 1995-2000
     All




                                                 All Workers


                                                  Aerospace
     Engineers




                                                 Mechanical

                                                         Civil
                                        Electrical/Eelectronic
                                            Engineers, n.e.c.

                                                    Chem ical
                                                    Industrial
     Scientists




                                                   Chem ists
                                    Biological/Life Scientists
                                          Medical Scientists
     IT Workers




                  Com puter System s Analysts and Scientists

                                    Com puter Program m ers

                                                                 0%       1%           2%           3%           4%     5%   6%

SOURCE: Department of Commerce analysis of U.S. Department of Labor, Current Population Survey (Annual Averages) data
      Salary Growth in IT Occupations
      1999-2002

               Computer and Information Systems Managers

             Computer and Information Scientists, Research                                                                                                                    2002

                               Computer Hardware Engineers
                                                                                                                                                                              2001
                                                                                                                                                                              2000
           Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software
                                                                                                                                                                              1999
                 Computer Software Engineers, Applications

                                  Computer Systems Analysts

                                      Computer Programmers


      Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts


                                      Database Administrators

             Network and Computer Systems Administrators

                                Computer Support Specialists


                                                                $-         $10,000     $20,000     $30,000     $40,000     $50,000      $60,000     $70,000   $80,000   $90,000   $100,000
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002,
http://w w w .bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm
Percent Salary Growth in IT Occupations
1999-2002, 2001-2002


       Computer and Information Systems Managers

      Computer and Information Scientists, Research

                         Computer Hardware Engineers
                                                                                                                                                              1999-2002
    Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software                                                                                                             2001-2002

          Computer Software Engineers, Applications

                          Computer Systems Analysts

                                Computer Programmers

Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts

                               Database Administrators

      Network and Computer Systems Administrators

                         Computer Support Specialists


                                                           0%             1%              2%              3%             4%             5%              6%          7%    8%
     SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of data from U.S. Department of Labor Occupational Employment Survey, 2000-2002,
     http://w w w .bls.gov/oes/oes_dl.htm
Unemployment Rates
                                                            Average Annual Unemployment
                                                     Engineers, IT Workers, Professional Specialties
                                                                       1983-2002
             7
                                 Engineers
             6                   Computer system analysts and scientists
                                 Computer programmers
             5
                                 Professional specialities
             4
   Percent




             3

             2

             1

             0
                 1983    1984     1985     1986     1987     1988     1989     1990     1991     1992     1993     1994    1995     1996     1997     1998     1999     2000       2001   2002


NOTE: The labor force and unemployed reported above include only the experienced unemployed, classified by the occupation of their last job. Computer system analysts and
scientists includes computer analyst, computer scientist, computer-systems planning, computer-systems analyst, data processing consultant, information scientist, softw are
specialist, and other occupations. Computer system analysts and scientists are classified w ithin professional specialty occupations and computer programmers in technicians and
related support occupations. Data for 2000-2002 have been revised to incorporate population controls from Census 2000.
IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

Employment, Numbers
5,000,000

4,500,000                                                                            2002
4,000,000                                                                            2012
3,500,000

3,000,000

2,500,000

2,000,000

1,500,000

1,000,000

 500,000

       0
            Professional IT   Engineers   Life Scientists   Physical Scientists   Natural Sciences
             Occupations                                                             Managers
  IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

  Employment Growth: Rate
40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
       Professional IT   Engineers   Life Scientists   Physical Scientists   Natural Sciences
        Occupations                                                             Managers
 IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

 Employment Growth: Numbers
1,400,000


1,200,000


1,000,000


 800,000


 600,000


 400,000


 200,000


       0
            Professional IT   Engineers   Life Scientists   Physical Scientists   Natural Sciences
             Occupations                                                             Managers
  IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

  Total Job Openings
1,800,000

1,600,000

1,400,000

1,200,000

1,000,000

 800,000

 600,000

 400,000

 200,000

       0
            Professional IT   Engineers   Life Scientists   Physical Scientists   Natural Sciences
             Occupations                                                             Managers
  Occupational Distribution of
  Projected S&E Job Openings
  (new jobs plus net replacements)
             2002-2012


70%
                      Engineers

        Information                     Life
        Technology                   Scientists

                                       Physical
                                     Scientists
                               Natural
                               Science
                              Managers
  IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

  Job Growth: 2000-2010 vs. 2002-2012
2,500,000


                                                                        2000-2010
2,000,000
                                                                        2002-2012

1,500,000



1,000,000



 500,000



     -
            Professional IT   Engineers   Life Scientists   Physical Scientists   Natural Sciences
             Occupations                                                             Managers
IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

Change in Growth: 2000-2010 vs. 2002-2012

   200,000



         0
              Professional IT   Engineers   Life Scientists   Physical Scientists   Natural Sciences
               Occupations                                                             Managers
  -200,000



  -400,000



  -600,000


  -800,000



 -1,000,000



 -1,200,000
IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

Projected IT Job Growth 2010 vs. 2012 Projections

7,000,000


6,000,000


                                                 A reduction of
5,000,000
                        A reduction of           1. 6 million jobs
                        more than 1
4,000,000               million jobs



3,000,000


2,000,000


1,000,000


      -
                2010                     2012             2012 if previous trend of 5.2% annual
                                                                  growth had continued
IT, Science and Engineering Occupational Projections, 2002-2012

Change in Total Openings: 2000-2010 vs. 2002-2012
3,000,000


                                                                     2000-2010
2,500,000

                                                                     2002-2012
2,000,000



1,500,000



1,000,000



 500,000



      -
            Professional IT   Engineers   Life Scientists   Physical Scientists   Natural Sciences
             Occupations                                                             Managers
S&E Bachelor’s Degrees
   Life Sciences Up...
100%
                                                                                                   Psychology



                                                                                  Biological/Agricultural Sciences




50%

                                                                                            Social Sciences




 0%
       1986   1987   1988   1989   1990   1991   1992   1993   1994      1995     1996      1997      1998      2000
                                                                                         Physical Sciences


                                                                           Engineering


                                                                      Com puter Science/Mathem atics
-50%




                     ...Engineering, Physical Sciences, and Math Down
Engineering Bachelor’s Degrees…
Half Empty or Half Full?

 80,000                               80,000

                                      75,000
 75,000
                                      70,000

                                      65,000
 70,000
                                      60,000

 65,000                               55,000

                                      50,000
 60,000
                                      45,000

            A 23 percent decline      40,000         …or a 53 percent
 55,000
                                                     increase since
            since 1985…               35,000
                                                     1976?
 50,000                               30,000
          1985   1990   1995   2000         1975   1980   1985   1990   1995   2000
Both, depending on your perspective…


  90,000
  80,000
  70,000
  60,000
  50,000
  40,000
  30,000
  20,000
  10,000
      0
           1966   1970   1974   1978   1982   1986   1990   1994   1998
     The Market Perspective
     Degree Production vs. Projected Job Openings

                             Annual Degrees and Job Openings in Broad S&E Fields
 160,000


 140,000                              PhD
                                      Master's
 120,000                              Bachelor's
                                      Projected Job Openings
 100,000


   80,000


   60,000


   40,000


   20,000


        -
                                       Engineering                                              Physical Sciences                                             Mathematical/                                                  Biological/
                                                                                                                                                            Computer Sciences                                           Agricultural Sciences

SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; and NSF/S RS: Survey of
Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections
Engineering
Degrees & Projected Job Openings
   20,000

   18,000

   16,000
                                        PhD
                                        Master's
   14,000                               Bachelor's
                                        Projected Job Openings
   12,000

   10,000

     8,000

     6,000

     4,000

     2,000

         -
                         Aero-/                      Chemical                       Civil                 Electrical*                Industrial                Mechanical                 Materials/                     Other
                      Astronautical                                                                                                                                                      Metallurgy**
 * Occupations include Electrical, Electronics, Computer Hardware Engineers
 ** There are an additional 400 jobs per year for Material Scientists (not shown here; included in the "Other Physical Sciences" category)
 SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions
 Survey; and NSF/SRS: Survey of Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections
    Physical Sciences
    Degrees & Projected Job Openings
   12,000

                                      PhD
                                      Master's
   10,000                             Bachelor's
                                      Projected Job Openings


     8,000



     6,000



     4,000



     2,000



         -
                              Physics and Astronomy                                                Chemistry                                           Earth, Atmospheric                                      Other Physical Science
                                                                                                                                                       and Oceanographic
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      NSF/S
SOURCES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Division of Science Resources Statistics; degree data from Department of Education/National Center for Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System Completions Survey; andRS: Survey of
Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Average Job Openings derived from Department of Commerce (Office of Technology Policy) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections
 Mathematics and Computer Science
 Degrees & Projected Job Openings

  160,000


  140,000                                       PhD
                                                Master's
                                                Bachelor's
  120,000                                       Projected Job Openings


  100,000


    80,000


    60,000


    40,000


    20,000


          -
                                                                  Mathematics                                                                                                    Computer science
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               RS:            and NSF/S
SOUR CES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Div ision of Science R esources Statistics; degree data f rom D epartment of Education/National C enter f or Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education D ata Sy stem C ompletions Surv ey ;of
Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Av erage Job Openings deriv ed f rom D epartment of C ommerce (Of f ice of Technology Policy ) analy sis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections
     Biological and Agricultural Sciences
     Degrees & Projected Job Openings

   70,000
                                               PhD
                                               Master's
   60,000
                                               Bachelor's
                                               Projected Job Openings

   50,000


   40,000


   30,000


   20,000


   10,000


          -
                                                           Agricultural science                                                                                                    Biological science
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               RS:            and NSF/S
SOUR CES: Tabulated by National Science Foundation/Div ision of Science R esources Statistics; degree data f rom D epartment of Education/National C enter f or Education Statistics: Integrated Postsecondary Education D ata Sy stem C ompletions Surv ey ;of
Earned Doctorates; Projected Annual Av erage Job Openings deriv ed f rom D epartment of C ommerce (Of f ice of Technology Policy ) analy sis of Bureau of Labor Statistics 2002-2012 projections
IT Education & Training Landscape
How IT Workers Get and Maintain their Skills
•   IT Bachelor’s Degrees
•   IT-Related Minors
•   Combined IT Bachelors/Masters Degree Programs
•   IT-Related Masters of Science Programs
•   Techno MBAs
•   Two-Year IT Degrees at Community Colleges
•   IT Certificate Programs
•   Private, For-Profit Education and Training Institutions
•   Vendor and Vendor-neutral IT Certification
•   Federal, State and Regional IT Training Initiatives
•   Boot Camps and Seminars
•   Employer Programs
•   On-Line, CD-ROM, Books
•   The Churn
Professional Level IT Workers Hold a Wide Array
of Science, Engineering and Other Degrees
               Educational Background of Professional-level IT Workers
   100%
                                   Other

   90%                             Business

                                   Social Sciences
   80%
                                                                               Of professional
   70%                             Mathem atics                               level IT workers
                                                                                  who hold
   60%                             Natural Sciences                             bachelor's or
                                                                                 higher level
   50%                             Engineering                                    degrees,
                                   other than                                       87.5%
                                   Computer and Systems Engineering             hold degrees
   40%
                                                                              in science, math
                                   IT Degrees, including:                      or engineering
   30%                             Computer & information sciences, general
                                   Computer science
   20%                             Computer systems analysis
                                   Information services and systems
   10%                             Other computer and information sciences
                                   Computer and systems engineering
                                   Computer programming
    0%
          Professional Level IT
                Workers
Possible Niche Areas of Need

 • Emerging Disciplines

 • Converging Disciplines

 • Industries Affected by Past/Current Federal Demand

 • University Professors in High Demand Disciplines

 • Federal S&E Employees: Unique Challenges

 • Industries with Past Workforce Shocks
Challenge to the Community:
Action
• Amplify Market Signals
   • Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary Institutions
   • Post-Secondary Institutions’ Responsiveness to Market
     Demands
      • Preparation for industry careers
      • Technical skills in demand
      • Soft and business skills
   • Career Awareness in Middle, High School
   • Dissemination of Occupational Data
      • Demand, job characteristics, unemployment, etc.
• Improve Math and Science Education in K-12
Challenge to the Community:
Action
• Math and Science Education in K-12
• Image of Scientists and Engineers
• S&E Career Awareness in Middle, High School
• Industry Feedback to Post-Secondary
  Institutions
• Post-Secondary Institutions’ Responsiveness
  to Market Demands
• Industry Must Help Itself
 Challenges to
 Growing Domestic S&E Workforce
• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business
 Challenges to
 Growing Domestic S&E Workforce
• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business
                                         Registered Time from Baccalaureate to Doctorate
                                    for Physical Sciences, Engineering, and Life Sciences, 2001
              8
                       Median Age        Median Age      Median Age
                         30.6              31.2            31.8
              7


              6


              5
    (years)




              4


              3


              2


              1


              0
                  Physical Sciences*    Engineering    Life Sciences                  Law School   MBA
 Challenges to
 Growing Domestic S&E Workforce
• Cost-Benefit of Grad Education in S&E vs. Law, Business
• Attractiveness of Careers in S&E vs. Law, Business
• Strong Emphasis by Other Nations, Cultures on S&E Education
• Access to Foreign Labor in the U.S. (H-1B, L1)
• Access to Foreign Labor Abroad (Offshoring—direct and through
  contract)
   • Significantly lower salary costs
   • Pools of well-educated S&E talent
   • Improved national infrastructure, political stability
• Large Government, Industry Focus on Health R&D
Factors Supporting U.S. Ability to
Grow Domestic S&E Workforce

• Premier Academic Research Institutions
• Elite Students Among Best in World
• Powerful Industrial Base, Potential Partners
  in S&E Education and Training
• Money Talks!
          Contact Information

               John F. Sargent
                 Senior Policy Analyst
Office of Technology Policy, Technology Administration
            U.S. Department of Commerce
                     202-482-6185
                 jsargent@ta.doc.gov
                   www.ta.doc.gov
Census Bureau Projections Thru 2100
U.S. Race/Ethnic Composition, numbers
                    250,000




                    200,000

                                       White
                                       Black
                    150,000
   (in thousands)




                                       American Indian
                                       Asian and Pacific Islander
                                       Hispanic


                    100,000




                     50,000




                         0
                              2000   2010   2020      2030       2040      2050       2060       2070      2080       2090        2100
   SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S Census Bureau Data, Population Projections,
   http://WWW.CENSUS.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T5.html
Census Bureau Projections Thru 2100
U.S. Race/Ethnic Composition, percent
    80%


                                                                                                      White
    70%
                                                                                                      Black
                                                                                                      American Indian
                                                                                                      Asian and Pacific Islander
    60%
                                                                                                      Hispanic



    50%


    40%


    30%


    20%


    10%


     0%
               2000       2010        2020        2030       2040        2050        2060       2070        2080      2090     2100
    SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S Census Bureau Data, Population
    Projections, http://WWW.CENSUS.gov/population/www/projections/natsum-T5.html
Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded, by Gender

800,000
                        Women
700,000
                        Men
600,000

500,000

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

     0
          1968   1972    1976   1980   1984   1988   1992   1996   2000
S&E Bachelor’s Degrees, by Gender
         Bachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines As a Percent of
                    All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That Gender
                                                 By Gender 2000

12%                                                                         1.1:1
                                     Men
        5.2:1
10%                                  Women                                                           1:2.4
                                                                                        1.1:1
 8%

                    3.4:1
 6%

 4%
                                                   1.9:1       1.5:1
 2%                                2.0:1

 0%
      Engineering   Com puter   Earth, Atm os.    Physical   Mathem atics    Social    Biological   Psychology
                    Sciences       & Ocean        Sciences                  Sciences   Sciences
                                  Sciences
Women’s Share of MEPS Bachelor’s
Degrees Growing, Still Comparatively Low

                                               Share of Bachelor's Degrees in
                               Physical Sciences, Engineering, Computer Science, Mathematics
                                                      by Gender, 1966-2000
100%

 90%

 80%

 70%
                     Women
 60%
                     Men
 50%

 40%

 30%

 20%

 10%

 0%
       1966   1969      1972       1975    1978    1981      1984      1987   1990   1993   1996   2000
  Share of Bachelor’s Degrees in Each Field
  Earned by Women, 2000

            Percentage of All Degrees Awarded in Each Field Earned by Women
                                                2000

                      All Fields

                Non-S&E Fields

                      Total S&E

                   Engineering

              Physical Sciences

             Computer Science

                           Math

Earth, Atmos. & Ocean Sciences

Biological/Agricultural Sciences

                    Psychology

                Social Sciences

                               0%   10%   20%    30%   40%   50%   60%   70%   80%   90%
Share of Total U.S. S&E Bachelor’s Degrees

                                                       Underrepresented Minorities' Share of
                                              Total U.S. Science and Engineering Bachelor's Degrees
                                                         Citizens and Permanent Residents, 1991-2000
                                     9.0                                                                             0.9
                                     8.0                                                                             0.8
   (Percent, Blacks and Hispanics)




                                                                                                                           (Percent, Native Americans)
                                     7.0                                                                             0.7
                                     6.0                                                                             0.6
                                     5.0                                                                             0.5
                                     4.0                                                                             0.4
                                     3.0                                                                             0.3
                                     2.0                                                                             0.2
                                     1.0                                                                             0.1
                                     0.0                                                                             0.0
                                           1991   1992     1993    1994     1995    1996     1997      1998   2000
 S&E Bachelor’s Degrees, by Race
                    Bachelor's Degrees in Various S&E Disciplines
         As a Percent of All Bachelor's Degrees Earned By That Group
                                            By Race, 2000


12%

                         White, non-Hispanics
10%                      Asians/Pacific Islanders
                         Black, non-Hispanics
                         Hispanics
8%
                         American Indians or Alaskan Natives


6%


4%


2%


0%
      Engineering      Physical Science             Mathematics   Computer Science   Biological Science
IT Occupational Growth Rate 5 Times Greater
Than Natural Scientists, Engineers

                          IT, Natural Scientists and Engineers
                        Average Annual Employment Growth, 1996-2001

      IT Occupations


      Natural Scientists


      Engineers


                                           0%              2%              4%              6%             8%   10%

 SOURCE: U.S. Depart ment of Commerce analysis of Depart ment of Labor Current Populat ion Survey dat a
Occupational Growth Rates
IT vs. All Occupations

                  Growth Rate of Professional-level IT Occupations
                     Outstrips Growth Rate for All Occupations
                   Growth Rate of IT Occupations, All Occupations Since 1991
    120%
    100%                   Computer systems analysts and scientists
     80%                   All Occupations
     60%
     40%
     20%
       0%
               1991       1992      1993      1994       1995      1996       1997      1998      1999       2000      2001

  , SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Technology Policy analysis of U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
  Statistics data, Current Population Survey 1990-2000, Household Data Annual Averages, Employed Persons
S&E Occupational Growth Dominated by
Information Technology Occupations

                             Occupational Growth, 1996-2001
                                                                       13:1




                                                                     }
                    1,000                 4:1
                     800
                                       }                                    IT Occupations
   (in thousands)




                     600           IT                           IT          S&E Occupations

                     400

                     200
                                                                          S&E
                      -
                                                 S&E
                                EEs Counted as S&E              EEs counted as IT

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Total Bachelor’s Degrees in Engineering,
Physical Sciences, Computer Science and
Mathematics Stable
 160,000


 140,000


 120,000


 100,000


  80,000


  60,000


  40,000


  20,000


     -
           1966   1969   1972   1975   1978   1981   1984   1987   1990   1993   1996   2000
Science and Engineering, MEPS
as a Share of All Bachelor’s Degrees

40%


35%


30%
                                                                Science and Engineering

25%


20%
                                                    Engineering, Physical Sciences, Computer Science and
                                                    Mathematics
15%


10%


 5%


 0%
   1966   1969   1972   1975   1978   1981   1984       1987       1990       1993        1996     2000
      Strong correlation between Federal R&D
      investments in MEPS and bachelor’s
      degree production in MEPS fields
                                                                                                                                                                      90,000
                                                                                                                                                                                     y = 21064 + 1.029x R 2= 0.953
                                                                                                                                                                      80,000
                                   80000                                                                          180000
                                                                                                                                                                      70,000




                                                                                                                           Bachelor’s Degrees in Physical Sciences,
                                   70000                                                                          160000                                              60,000
Federal R&D, $M , non-biomedical




                                                                                                                  140000                                              50,000
                                   60000
      (constant 1996 dollars)




                                                                                                                                                                      40,000




                                                                                                                                      Math, Engineering
                                                                                                                  120000                                                                                     1953-1968
                                   50000                                                                                                                              30,000
                                                                                                                                                                            10       20       30        40        50        60
                                                                                                                  100000
                                            Dollars                                                                                                                                   Federal R&D, Non-Biomedical
                                   40000                                                                                                                                                    constant (1996)B$

                                                                                                                  80000                                               200,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                               2
                                                                                                                                                                                      y = -13561 + 2.4612x    R = 0.83663
                                   30000
                                                                                                                  60000
                                                         Students
                                   20000                                                                                                                              150,000
                                                                                                                  40000

                                   10000                                                                          20000
                                                                                                                                                                      100,000

                                       0                                                                          0
                                           1955   1960     1965     1970   1975    1980   1985   1990   1995   2000                                                                                          1970-1998
                                                                            Year                                                                                      50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                40   45    50      55        60     65      70

                                                                                                                                                                                      Federal R&D, Non-Biomedical
                                                                                                                                                                                            constant (1996)B$
Share of Total S&E Degrees Earned by
Non-Resident Aliens, by Degree Level
        Share of U.S. Degrees Earned By Non-Resident Aliens
                          in 2000, by Degree Level


50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
 5%
 0%
       BS    PhD    BS    PhD      BS       PhD      BS   PhD   BS      PhD
      Engineering   Physical     Mathematics         Computer   Biological
                    Science                           Science    Science
  U.S. Lags Other Nations in Share of 24-Year-Olds
  With Natural Science, Engineering Degrees




Also:   The United States ranks 61st out of 63 nations in the share of S&E degrees
        as a total of all bachelor’s degrees.

				
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