Alberta’s Tourism Vision 2020 February 2004 Trends follow a predictable pattern Travel Trends • Important trend in North America and Europe during the last 10-15 years has been a substantial growth in the demand for short holidays, having an effect at the local and regional level. Travel Trends • Tourism is still mostly contained to developed countries. • North America to and from Europe accounts for 79% of all travelers and 78% of the tourism receipts. • Japan is also a major recipient and generator. • Those countries that show economic growth will most likely be the ones to generate and benefit from tourism. Travel Trends • Travel currently to developing countries is not growing because of political instability, medical concerns, poor facilities and inadequate levels of service. • Also, and most importantly, are inadequate distribution channels. • It is not easy to get to these areas of the world and is expensive. Mega-trends • Forces that affect almost everyone in the world. Individually no one can control, influence or manage a mega-trend. Mega- trends can only be dealt with through collective action. – Population and demographic shifts – Globalization – Democratization Population Growth • The world’s population is expected to be nearly 8 billion by 2025 • Developed countries are not growing (actually some are declining), but growth in developing countries is making up for it = net world population growth • For developed countries this means that the cohort of 60+ will outnumber the younger cohorts Population Growth • In countries with positive population growth rates, the population tends to be young and uneducated and life expectancy is much younger than developed countries – Impact on future economic development, education and health concerns, political instability, and concerns about the future potential of these countries Population Growth • With an aging population in developed countries, we will see a shift in travel patterns. This group will be: – Nearing retirement or taking early or semi-retirement – They have the disposable income and time to travel – Their needs and interests however are very different – They will travel internationally for longer durations – These trips will be to developing countries with the exception that trips to Canada and the US will also increase Population Growth • With the increase in “generation gap”, multiple niche markets will exist with different needs, interests, and motivations – There will be an opportunity to market directly to these niche markets via the Internet – Product and Experiential differentiation will become increasingly important for jurisdictions Population Growth in Alberta 4,500.0 4,000.0 3,500.0 3,000.0 2,500.0 2,000.0 1,500.0 1,000.0 500.0 - 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Democratization • The world has changed considerably over the past 50 years, power has shifted globally. And in areas of the world where political unrest remains, power will continue to shift over time • Equality has altered cultures and nations – E.g. woman in the workplace (see family section) Values • Value systems have been changing especially in developed countries • As awareness of the world widens the tendency will be for values and ideas to converge. • North American and European values have already been noted to be converging over the past 15 years. • Cultural experiences, learning and education, and visual stimulation will all be a part of the overall experiences that people will seek when travelling both domestically and internationally. Values • For developing countries however, changing values may have a counter-effect of increased rebellion against “western culture and values” • These countries want to retain their own culture, history and diversity • The impact of superpowers and increased democratization globally could have impact on further conflict and terrorist activity Fire and Ice- Michael Adams • Michael Adam’s new • US states that border book Fire and Ice “reveals Canada show the most that Canada and the similarity. United States are not • The further South you go coming together, but are the more divergent the diverging in significant values ways. • “As the United States • From the vehicles we buy grows ever more dominant to the deference we pay to on the world stage, how authority, Canadians can we hope to hold on to prove to be firmly separate our national identity?” in their attitudes and opinions.” Globalization • Individual countries will battle to maintain their cultures as the world becomes more and more interdependent • Knowledge and awareness of global issues will increase the desire to travel internationally especially in the younger generations and older generations as they have the time to travel Communication Technology • Communication technology especially with the Internet has created a global village. Its impact is not fully understood even today. • The generation today is “connected” to all ends of the world, seeing events live, and as a result have a much better understanding of the world and the impact of specific events • To some extent the ability to “speak” to people via the Internet will create a truly global village • An increased interest in cultural tourism and travel will increase over the next decade Work and Family • The workplace has changed - with communications and technology improving it will continue to change – Flexible work schedules, telecommuting, the home office, part-time workers, etc • More flexibility in when they take time off – Importance of work-life balance – Importance of leisure and family time Work and Family • Most families now have two workers • Time at work is time away from the family • Time at work adds stress on family and marriage • People need to relieve the stress and look for ways in which to do that – Importance of leisure, recreation and time “away” with family and friends Work and Family • Global competition will act as a brake against more leisure time- trade off between being competitive at work and taking time off Work and Family • Development of higher incomes but less free time will change the way holidays are taken – Competition for time – Growing importance of time with family and friends • VFR will continue to be an important aspect of travel • Holidays will tend to be shorter, more frequent and include more intense forms of recreation • People will stay closer to home- enjoy their purchases of boats, trailers and cottages With a healthier balance between work and play, people are actually more productive while on the job, which enables them to put in more quality work time in less hours, leaving more time for leisure… The LTA study revealed that about a third of those polled (32 percent) say they postpone fun because they feel guilty when they are not doing something they believe is productive. Yet seven out of 10 say they simply need more fun in their lives. • Leisure Time Distortion Study Comparison by Age Families Older Group • Shorter, more frequent • Long-haul, longer trips duration trips • Intraregional and domestic • International and • Stay closer to home intraregional • Escaping the daily routine • To developing or exotic and Reconnecting with locations family • Wish fulfillment and cultural and learning opportunities Travel Participation Rate • Maximum is 100%, but typically it is 75-85% because some people are sick, don’t have time or money, etc. • If participation approaches that level than growth in holiday volume will level off. Therefore, participation can’t be a driving force for growth in travel demand • Studies have indicated that there is a reduction in free time in developed countries worldwide and therefore the participation rate might be on the lower limit (75%) Physically active vs. passive • The fastest growing activities are: bird watching, hiking, backpacking, and camping • Decreased participation in hunting, horse riding and fishing • Increased participation in technology-drive adventure activities such as skiing/snowboarding, canoeing/kayaking, and cycling • Moderate growth in family-oriented activities such as camping and swimming • Growth trend of number, size and diversity of festivals will continue Physically active vs. passive • Travellers are going in search of exotic, unfamiliar, and unpredictable situations and destinations – Getting them out of the daily routine • Travellers are more interested in improving themselves intellectually, emotionally and physically • Growth in cultural tourism demand, stimulated by higher levels of education and a thirst for knowledge and personal development Health • The importance of health and hygiene within countries and resorts has recently been highlighted. Outbreaks of disease tend to have a temporary or short-term impact on tourists traveling to worldwide destinations • With more international travel, the exposure of new viruses and “bugs” to citizens, both incoming and local, is inevitable – Further health crisis will continue in the future Impact • The long-term impact of health concerns is not known – World Health Organization is growing in importance, awareness, and power • Will it become an issue of national security? – Will we become desensitized to these issues? – Will it become a common factor for tourism? – What will be next health crisis? Lawsuit over SARS • Toronto nurse sues for $600 million over SARS – Claims authorities were more interested in tourism than safety – Claims defendants eased infection-control procedures at hospitals too early while concentrating on lifting a World Health Organization (WHO) travel advisory that recommended against visiting Toronto. – This lapse allowed the deadly disease to resume its spread • Potential longer term impact if lawsuit is successful. Stricter control and guidelines will be enforced. Public safety vs. economic benefit • Potential to tarnish “reputation of tourism” War and Terrorism • A major war or terrorist action gives an unexpected or sudden shock to travel demand, with short and long term effects throughout a large influence zone – E.g. SARS, War in Iraq, coupled with the continued economic downturn in the US economy with have a longer term impact on travel demand (interaction effect) Impact • Ethnic profiling • Border issues- entry and exit • Issue of Foreign policy • Issue for citizens of ethnicity – i.e. racial profiling of Muslims and people of Middle Eastern decent after 9/11 and the War in Iraq – What does this do to North American citizens of Middle Eastern decent? Border Restrictions • Border entry into the US: Pictures and finger- printing of entries except for certain countries • Similar entry procedures being developed for non- European citizens entering the European Union (EU) • Fingerprinting travelers is becoming more prevalent in various airports worldwide. – What impact will tightening borders and entry procedures have on international travel? Forecasts What does the future look like? Forecasts for Tourism • Global Forecasts • Americas Forecasts • Canada Forecasts • Alberta (estimates) based on Canada Forecasts – Source: World Tourism Organization, Tourism Vision 2020 Tourism 2020 Vision • Tourism 2020 Vision – Americas, World Tourism Organization, 2000 • Note: Even with the downshift in tourism demand in 2001, 2002, and 2003, the WTO feels that over the long term the forecast will hold. Global Forecast • International arrivals expected to be 1.56 billion, annual growth rate of 4.1% • Long haul travel is expected to grow faster than intraregional • Tourism is expected to grow at around 4-5% each year globally. This is expected to be relatively constant for the foreseeable future. • Receipts continue to show even more impressive gains. • Top receiving regions: Europe, East Asia/Pacific, Americas Americas Forecast • Note: “Americas” includes North, Central and South America • International tourist arrivals in the Americas are forecasted to be 282.3 million in 2020. • This is an annual growth rate of 3.9% over the period 1995-2020, which is below the global average of 4.1%. • As a result the market share will decrease to 18.1% by 2020. • Long haul travel to the Americas will grow at a faster pace than intraregional travel. In 2020, the ratio of intraregional: long haul is expected to be 62:38. (In 1995 it was 77:23) Americas Forecast 1985 1990 1995 2000 (f) 2010 (f) 2020 (f) Total Americas 64.3 92.8 108.9 130.2 190.4 282.3 Africa 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 Americas 53.8 71.7 78.9 92.8 122.9 159.9 (intraregional) East Asia/Pacific 2.8 5.9 8.5 8.8 18.1 40.0 Europe 5.9 11.6 15.9 21.3 38.3 65.5 Middle East 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 South Asia 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 Not specified 1.2 3.0 4.9 6.5 9.7 14.9 Canada Forecast Actual Forecast Market Share Average Annual Growth 1995 2010 2020 1995 2020 1995-2020 Total Americas 108.9 190.4 282.3 100 100 3.9 North 80.5 131.9 192.0 73.9 68.0 3.5 USA 43.3 72.8 102.4 39.8 36.3 3.5 Canada 16.9 26.5 40.6 15.5 14.4 3.6 Mexico 20.2 32.5 48.9 18.6 17.3 3.6 WTO Tourism 2020 Vision: Forecast of Tourist Arrivals in Canada by Main Markets Origin Market Actual 1995 Forecast Forecast Growth Rate 2010 2020 1995-2020 United States 13,005,200 18,798,624 26,503,355 2.9 United Kingdom 640,500 1,608,957 3,165,063 6.6 Japan 589,300 872,308 1,420,898 3.6 France 430,200 622,835 921,948 3.1 Germany 420,800 565,520 837,108 2.8 Hong Kong (China) 217,100 290,485 473,169 3.2 Australia 141,600 273,942 490,588 5.1 Korea 112,500 269,613 530,369 6.4 Netherlands 99,500 216,893 388,422 5.6 Taiwan (P.C.) 98,000 309,296 608,433 7.6 Other 1,177,400 2,685,023 5,281,846 6.2 Total 16,932,100 26,513,495 40,621,198 3.6 Visitation- person visits Alberta Tourism Revenue Forecast 2003 2002 Estimate %Change 2010Outloo%Change 2015Outlook%Change 2020Outlook%Change Alberta $2,889 $2,675 (7.4) $3,374 4.5 $4,324 2.5 $5,360 2 Canada $1,192 $1,089 (8.6) $1,416 5.5 $1,851 4.5 $2,262 2 United States $656 $616 (6.1) $818 5 $947 -2 $1,152 3 Europe $364 $339 (6.9) $438 4.5 $546 -1 $670 3 Asia-Pacific $308 $262 (14.9) $344 -3 $436 3 $530 3 Other Overseas $39 $37 (5.1) $44 5 $46 3 $62 8 Total $5,448 $5,018 (7.9) $6,434 4.3 $8,150 2.2 $10,036 2.3 Other Jurisdictions What are they doing? Britain- United Kingdom The mission of British Tourism Authority (BTA) is sustainable tourism growth that contributes to Government wider goals for sustainable development. “Sustainable tourism meets the needs of present tourists and host regions while protecting and enhancing opportunities for the future.” WTO Britain- United Kingdom Key Strategies • Ensure visitors return and recommend – through increased training in the industry improving the standards of products and services – maximize incremental leisure travel from business stemming travel • Sustain and increase levels of tourism growth – tourism is seen in all strategies as a key component of national economic growth and of regeneration in regions where traditional industries are in decline. Britain- United Kingdom Key Strategies • Maximize the benefits of tourism locally – away from “honeypot” sites • Encourage the use of public transport – to solve the problems of congestion and increase visitor satisfaction • Increase the seasonal spread of tourism – reduce staff turn over through training Western Australia (WA) The mission of the Western Australian Tourism Commission is to accelerate the sustainable growth of tourism for the long term benefit of Western Australia Through four key strategies that support six common objectives. Western Australia (WA) Key Strategies • Event and Business Tourism Strategy – maximize impact of national and international events for WA, grow regional and business tourism – develop “iconic” events to give WA a unique identity • Industry Development and Visitor Servicing Strategy – through traditional and on-line services and partnerships enhance visitor experience in WA – through product-focused partnerships develop nature based tourism and WA “iconic” experiences Western Australia (WA) Key Strategies • Marketing and Communication Strategy – focuses on 10 international markets, Australian interstate market and the intrastate market – through partnerships and media, grow year-round tourism. Specifically, focus on: • the international student market, • one-on-one marketing, and • give responsibility for intrastate marketing to the Regional Tourism Organizations Western Australia (WA) Key Strategies • Pathways Forward: Strategic Plan 2003-2008 – Grow WA tourism faster than the national average – Increase recognition of WA “iconic” experiences – Enhance visitor experience in WA – Grow regional tourism through partnerships and local empowerment – Make WA a natural choice for tourism investment – Achieve recognition for the tourism industry as a leading economic contributor to the State Ontario The mission of the Ontario Tourism Marketing Partnership Corporation (OTMPC) is to: grow Ontario’s tourism sector year-round by stimulating increased consumer spending and visits and by generating greater partnership participation. Ontario Key Strategies • Develop experience-based tourism vs. activity/product based – focus on promoting emotional experiences associated with travel in Ontario and building a strong distinctive Ontario brand image • Publications strategy – to support the new experience-based marketing strategy and generate year-round demand for travel Ontario Key Strategies • Internet and E-marketing Strategy – to capitalize on the ever-increasing consumer use of the internet for trip planning and bookings – and to support the ‘Ontario’ brand • Northern Marketing Strategy – to build partnerships in Northern Ontario Ontario Key Strategies • Meetings, Conventions and Incentive Travel Strategy (MC&IT) – to reclaim Ontario’s position as a location of choice for major conventions and – to maximize incremental leisure travel stemming from the business travel British Columbia The mission of the Tourism British Columbia is to ensure quality visitor experiences that grow the success of British Columbia’s tourism industry. The Tourism Branch of the Ministry of Small Business and Economic development is working in partnership with Tourism BC to develop a Provincial Tourism Strategy that will provide a framework for driving and implementing key provincial tourism deliverables. British Columbia Key Strategies • Creation of jobs in the tourism industry and training • Maximize the impact of Vancouver hosting the 2010 Olympic and Paralympics Winter Games • Incorporate technology that connects British Columbia tourism products and services with consumers efficiently What does this mean? Where are the opportunities for Alberta’s tourism industry in the future? Psychographic Markets • Outdoor adventure – Contests, events, challenging and new adventures – Typically outdoors • Family Time- Relax – Time to be together, out of the daily routine, peace – Camping, hiking, backpacking, bird watching • Culture and Learning – Museums, art galleries, cultural events and attractions – Immersion into different cultures • Seclusion – Looking for peace and quiet Outdoor Adventure • The outdoor experience is still a major attraction of domestic and international tourists • This segment is focused on new challenges, it is an accomplishment when finished. • Major events and programs that provide new challenges to participants both during the event – typically and after • Public support and programs are needed. Industry can develop products (e.g. guided tours, rentals, packages, etc.) around it - event lives on longer Relax and Recharge • As time limitations increase, especially in domestic markets, this segment will be looking for opportunities to travel shorter distances while still being able to participate in activities and re- connect with family. • Want to stay close to home as they feel safer and more comfortable. • Need family activities for the Alberta market from the Calgary- Edmonton corridor to other parts of the province. • Will stay away from the Rocky Mountain corridor if other opportunities exist because of cost and capacity factors. • These families enjoy camping, hiking, museums and other activities for the kids. Need activities for everyone in the family. • Like packages and trails- decreases planning time and they are budget conscious- like itineraries. • Need to improve and maintain local attractions. Culture and Learning • Both domestic and international markets, with emphasis on the international markets are looking for travel opportunities where they can learn about the history and culture. • The overall experience should be specific to the region. They are looking for a new experience. e.g. Canadian Badlands with Aboriginal tourism components. • Markets like China will be looking for tours that offer this type of component while being active. i.e. where they can get out and talk to people and learn hands-on. • Need to maintain museums, historic sites, and other cultural attractions in the province • Tours, trails, and information should have the local history, cultural attractions, and opportunities for interaction Seclusion • In the domestic market especially the near-in markets, there is a segment that will be looking to “get away” from all the distractions. • They will want to get away regularly on weekends and will want to stay close to home. • With limited down-time from work and increasing family responsibilities, they will be looking for new places to go. This is especially true as the Rocky Mountain region reaches capacity. • This segment likes the idea of a cabin near a lake where they can fish; they don’t need many amenities. • Opportunity in regions of the province where some public infrastructure exists or can be built- where they can enjoy the outdoors, the peace and quiet, and some amenities close by.
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