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Tourism Trends to 2020

VIEWS: 807 PAGES: 61

									Alberta’s Tourism Vision 2020

         February 2004
  Trends follow a
predictable pattern
                           Travel Trends
• Important trend in North America and
  Europe during the last 10-15 years has been
  a substantial growth in the demand for short
  holidays, having an effect at the local and
  regional level.
                             Travel Trends
• Tourism is still mostly contained to developed
  countries.
• North America to and from Europe accounts for
  79% of all travelers and 78% of the tourism
  receipts.
• Japan is also a major recipient and generator.
• Those countries that show economic growth will
  most likely be the ones to generate and benefit
  from tourism.
                            Travel Trends
• Travel currently to developing countries is
  not growing because of political instability,
  medical concerns, poor facilities and
  inadequate levels of service.
• Also, and most importantly, are inadequate
  distribution channels.
• It is not easy to get to these areas of the
  world and is expensive.
                              Mega-trends
• Forces that affect almost everyone in the
  world. Individually no one can control,
  influence or manage a mega-trend. Mega-
  trends can only be dealt with through
  collective action.
  – Population and demographic shifts
  – Globalization
  – Democratization
                      Population Growth
• The world’s population is expected to be nearly 8
  billion by 2025
• Developed countries are not growing (actually
  some are declining), but growth in developing
  countries is making up for it = net world
  population growth
• For developed countries this means that the cohort
  of 60+ will outnumber the younger cohorts
                      Population Growth
• In countries with positive population growth
  rates, the population tends to be young and
  uneducated and life expectancy is much
  younger than developed countries
  – Impact on future economic development,
    education and health concerns, political
    instability, and concerns about the future
    potential of these countries
                            Population Growth
• With an aging population in developed countries,
  we will see a shift in travel patterns. This group
  will be:
   –   Nearing retirement or taking early or semi-retirement
   –   They have the disposable income and time to travel
   –   Their needs and interests however are very different
   –   They will travel internationally for longer durations
   –   These trips will be to developing countries with the
       exception that trips to Canada and the US will also
       increase
                     Population Growth
• With the increase in “generation gap”,
  multiple niche markets will exist with
  different needs, interests, and motivations
  – There will be an opportunity to market directly
    to these niche markets via the Internet
  – Product and Experiential differentiation will
    become increasingly important for jurisdictions
                                  Population Growth in Alberta
4,500.0

4,000.0

3,500.0

3,000.0

2,500.0

2,000.0

1,500.0

1,000.0

 500.0

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                        Democratization
• The world has changed considerably over
  the past 50 years, power has shifted
  globally. And in areas of the world where
  political unrest remains, power will
  continue to shift over time
• Equality has altered cultures and nations
  – E.g. woman in the workplace (see family
    section)
                                            Values
• Value systems have been changing especially in
  developed countries
• As awareness of the world widens the tendency
  will be for values and ideas to converge.
• North American and European values have
  already been noted to be converging over the past
  15 years.
• Cultural experiences, learning and education, and
  visual stimulation will all be a part of the overall
  experiences that people will seek when travelling
  both domestically and internationally.
                                          Values
• For developing countries however, changing
  values may have a counter-effect of increased
  rebellion against “western culture and values”
• These countries want to retain their own culture,
  history and diversity
• The impact of superpowers and increased
  democratization globally could have impact on
  further conflict and terrorist activity
                                     Fire and Ice-
                                               Michael Adams

• Michael Adam’s new            • US states that border
  book Fire and Ice “reveals      Canada show the most
  that Canada and the             similarity.
  United States are not         • The further South you go
  coming together, but are        the more divergent the
  diverging in significant        values
  ways.                         • “As the United States
• From the vehicles we buy        grows ever more dominant
  to the deference we pay to      on the world stage, how
  authority, Canadians            can we hope to hold on to
  prove to be firmly separate     our national identity?”
  in their attitudes and
  opinions.”
                            Globalization
• Individual countries will battle to maintain
  their cultures as the world becomes more
  and more interdependent
• Knowledge and awareness of global issues
  will increase the desire to travel
  internationally especially in the younger
  generations and older generations as they
  have the time to travel
        Communication Technology
• Communication technology especially with the
  Internet has created a global village. Its impact is
  not fully understood even today.
• The generation today is “connected” to all ends of
  the world, seeing events live, and as a result have
  a much better understanding of the world and the
  impact of specific events
• To some extent the ability to “speak” to people via
  the Internet will create a truly global village
• An increased interest in cultural tourism and travel
  will increase over the next decade
                           Work and Family
• The workplace has changed - with
  communications and technology improving
  it will continue to change
  – Flexible work schedules, telecommuting, the
    home office, part-time workers, etc
     • More flexibility in when they take time off
  – Importance of work-life balance
  – Importance of leisure and family time
                        Work and Family
• Most families now have two workers
• Time at work is time away from the family
• Time at work adds stress on family and
  marriage
• People need to relieve the stress and look
  for ways in which to do that
  – Importance of leisure, recreation and time
    “away” with family and friends
                       Work and Family
• Global competition will act as a brake
  against more leisure time- trade off between
  being competitive at work and taking time
  off
                                Work and Family
• Development of higher incomes but less free time
  will change the way holidays are taken
   – Competition for time
   – Growing importance of time with family and friends
      • VFR will continue to be an important aspect of travel
• Holidays will tend to be shorter, more frequent
  and include more intense forms of recreation
• People will stay closer to home- enjoy their
  purchases of boats, trailers and cottages
With a healthier balance between work and play,
people are actually more productive while on the job,
which enables them to put in more quality work time
in less hours, leaving more time for leisure…

The LTA study revealed that about a third of those
polled (32 percent) say they postpone fun because
they feel guilty when they are not doing something
they believe is productive. Yet seven out of 10 say
they simply need more fun in their lives.
                      • Leisure Time Distortion Study
                       Comparison by Age
Families                       Older Group
• Shorter, more frequent       • Long-haul, longer
  trips                          duration trips
• Intraregional and domestic   • International and
• Stay closer to home            intraregional
• Escaping the daily routine   • To developing or exotic
  and Reconnecting with          locations
  family                       • Wish fulfillment and
                                 cultural and learning
                                 opportunities
              Travel Participation Rate
• Maximum is 100%, but typically it is 75-85%
  because some people are sick, don’t have time or
  money, etc.
• If participation approaches that level than growth
  in holiday volume will level off. Therefore,
  participation can’t be a driving force for growth in
  travel demand
• Studies have indicated that there is a reduction in
  free time in developed countries worldwide and
  therefore the participation rate might be on the
  lower limit (75%)
        Physically active vs. passive
• The fastest growing activities are: bird watching,
  hiking, backpacking, and camping
• Decreased participation in hunting, horse riding
  and fishing
• Increased participation in technology-drive
  adventure activities such as skiing/snowboarding,
  canoeing/kayaking, and cycling
• Moderate growth in family-oriented activities such
  as camping and swimming
• Growth trend of number, size and diversity of
  festivals will continue
         Physically active vs. passive
• Travellers are going in search of exotic,
  unfamiliar, and unpredictable situations and
  destinations
   – Getting them out of the daily routine
• Travellers are more interested in improving
  themselves intellectually, emotionally and
  physically
• Growth in cultural tourism demand, stimulated by
  higher levels of education and a thirst for
  knowledge and personal development
                                                   Health
• The importance of health and hygiene within
  countries and resorts has recently been
  highlighted. Outbreaks of disease tend to have a
  temporary or short-term impact on tourists
  traveling to worldwide destinations
• With more international travel, the exposure of
  new viruses and “bugs” to citizens, both incoming
  and local, is inevitable
   – Further health crisis will continue in the future
                                               Impact
• The long-term impact of health concerns is
  not known
  – World Health Organization is growing in
    importance, awareness, and power
     • Will it become an issue of national security?
  – Will we become desensitized to these issues?
  – Will it become a common factor for tourism?
  – What will be next health crisis?
                        Lawsuit over SARS
• Toronto nurse sues for $600 million over SARS
   – Claims authorities were more interested in tourism than
     safety
   – Claims defendants eased infection-control procedures at
     hospitals too early while concentrating on lifting a
     World Health Organization (WHO) travel advisory that
     recommended against visiting Toronto.
   – This lapse allowed the deadly disease to resume its
     spread
• Potential longer term impact if lawsuit is
  successful. Stricter control and guidelines will be
  enforced. Public safety vs. economic benefit
• Potential to tarnish “reputation of tourism”
                    War and Terrorism
• A major war or terrorist action gives an
  unexpected or sudden shock to travel
  demand, with short and long term effects
  throughout a large influence zone
  – E.g. SARS, War in Iraq, coupled with the
    continued economic downturn in the US
    economy with have a longer term impact on
    travel demand (interaction effect)
                                                 Impact
•   Ethnic profiling
•   Border issues- entry and exit
•   Issue of Foreign policy
•   Issue for citizens of ethnicity
    – i.e. racial profiling of Muslims and people of Middle
      Eastern decent after 9/11 and the War in Iraq
    – What does this do to North American citizens of
      Middle Eastern decent?
                         Border Restrictions
• Border entry into the US: Pictures and finger-
  printing of entries except for certain countries
• Similar entry procedures being developed for non-
  European citizens entering the European Union
  (EU)
• Fingerprinting travelers is becoming more
  prevalent in various airports worldwide.
   – What impact will tightening borders and entry
     procedures have on international travel?
        Forecasts

What does the future look like?
                  Forecasts for Tourism
•   Global Forecasts
•   Americas Forecasts
•   Canada Forecasts
•   Alberta (estimates) based on Canada
    Forecasts
    – Source: World Tourism Organization, Tourism
      Vision 2020
                Tourism 2020 Vision
• Tourism 2020 Vision – Americas, World
  Tourism Organization, 2000
• Note: Even with the downshift in tourism
  demand in 2001, 2002, and 2003, the WTO
  feels that over the long term the forecast
  will hold.
                                  Global Forecast
• International arrivals expected to be 1.56 billion, annual
  growth rate of 4.1%
• Long haul travel is expected to grow faster than
  intraregional
• Tourism is expected to grow at around 4-5% each year
  globally. This is expected to be relatively constant for the
  foreseeable future.
• Receipts continue to show even more impressive gains.
• Top receiving regions: Europe, East Asia/Pacific,
  Americas
                            Americas Forecast
• Note: “Americas” includes North, Central and South
  America
• International tourist arrivals in the Americas are forecasted
  to be 282.3 million in 2020.
• This is an annual growth rate of 3.9% over the period
  1995-2020, which is below the global average of 4.1%.
• As a result the market share will decrease to 18.1% by
  2020.
• Long haul travel to the Americas will grow at a faster pace
  than intraregional travel. In 2020, the ratio of intraregional:
  long haul is expected to be 62:38. (In 1995 it was 77:23)
                                              Americas Forecast
                          1985         1990          1995    2000 (f)    2010 (f)    2020 (f)


Total Americas      64.3         92.8          108.9        130.2       190.4       282.3


Africa              0.2          0.2           0.3          0.3         0.5         0.9


Americas            53.8         71.7          78.9         92.8        122.9       159.9
(intraregional)

East Asia/Pacific   2.8          5.9           8.5          8.8         18.1        40.0


Europe              5.9          11.6          15.9         21.3        38.3        65.5


Middle East         0.2          0.2           0.2          0.2         0.4         0.5


South Asia          0.2          0.2           0.2          0.3         0.4         0.6


Not specified       1.2          3.0           4.9          6.5         9.7         14.9
                                                         Canada Forecast
                        Actual             Forecast                 Market Share       Average
                                                                                       Annual
                                                                                       Growth

                        1995        2010              2020      1995           2020   1995-2020



Total Americas         108.9     190.4           282.3       100            100       3.9




North                  80.5      131.9           192.0       73.9           68.0      3.5


                 USA   43.3      72.8            102.4       39.8           36.3      3.5


            Canada     16.9      26.5            40.6        15.5           14.4      3.6


            Mexico     20.2      32.5            48.9        18.6           17.3      3.6
                                      WTO Tourism 2020 Vision:
                            Forecast of Tourist Arrivals in Canada
                                                 by Main Markets
    Origin Market           Actual 1995        Forecast        Forecast         Growth Rate
                                                2010            2020             1995-2020
 United States        13,005,200          18,798,624      26,503,355      2.9

 United Kingdom       640,500             1,608,957       3,165,063       6.6

 Japan                589,300             872,308         1,420,898       3.6

 France               430,200             622,835         921,948         3.1

 Germany              420,800             565,520         837,108         2.8

 Hong Kong (China)    217,100             290,485         473,169         3.2

 Australia            141,600             273,942         490,588         5.1

 Korea                112,500             269,613         530,369         6.4

 Netherlands          99,500              216,893         388,422         5.6

 Taiwan (P.C.)        98,000              309,296         608,433         7.6

 Other                1,177,400           2,685,023       5,281,846       6.2

 Total                16,932,100          26,513,495      40,621,198      3.6


Visitation- person visits
                                                        Alberta Tourism
                                                       Revenue Forecast
                        2003
                   2002 Estimate     %Change      2010Outloo%Change       2015Outlook%Change       2020Outlook%Change

Alberta          $2,889     $2,675        (7.4)     $3,374       4.5         $4,324       2.5         $5,360            2

Canada           $1,192     $1,089        (8.6)     $1,416       5.5         $1,851       4.5         $2,262            2

United States     $656        $616        (6.1)       $818            5        $947        -2         $1,152            3

Europe            $364        $339        (6.9)       $438       4.5           $546        -1           $670            3

Asia-Pacific      $308        $262       (14.9)       $344        -3           $436            3        $530            3

Other Overseas     $39         $37        (5.1)        $44            5         $46            3         $62            8

Total            $5,448     $5,018        (7.9)     $6,434       4.3         $8,150       2.2        $10,036       2.3
Other Jurisdictions

  What are they doing?
           Britain- United Kingdom
The mission of British Tourism Authority (BTA)
is sustainable tourism growth that contributes to
Government wider goals for sustainable
development.

“Sustainable tourism meets the needs of present
tourists and host regions while protecting and
enhancing opportunities for the future.” WTO
              Britain- United Kingdom
Key Strategies
• Ensure visitors return and recommend
  – through increased training in the industry improving the
    standards of products and services
  – maximize incremental leisure travel from business
    stemming travel
• Sustain and increase levels of tourism growth
  – tourism is seen in all strategies as a key component of
    national economic growth and of regeneration in
    regions where traditional industries are in decline.
                 Britain- United Kingdom
Key Strategies
• Maximize the benefits of tourism locally
   – away from “honeypot” sites
• Encourage the use of public transport
   – to solve the problems of congestion and increase visitor
     satisfaction
• Increase the seasonal spread of tourism
   – reduce staff turn over through training
            Western Australia (WA)
The mission of the Western Australian Tourism
Commission is to accelerate the sustainable
growth of tourism for the long term benefit of
Western Australia

Through four key strategies that support six
common objectives.
               Western Australia (WA)
Key Strategies
• Event and Business Tourism Strategy
  – maximize impact of national and international events
    for WA, grow regional and business tourism
  – develop “iconic” events to give WA a unique identity
• Industry Development and Visitor Servicing
  Strategy
  – through traditional and on-line services and
    partnerships enhance visitor experience in WA
  – through product-focused partnerships develop nature
    based tourism and WA “iconic” experiences
                Western Australia (WA)
Key Strategies
• Marketing and Communication Strategy
  – focuses on 10 international markets, Australian
    interstate market and the intrastate market
  – through partnerships and media, grow year-round
    tourism. Specifically, focus on:
     • the international student market,
     • one-on-one marketing, and
     • give responsibility for intrastate marketing to the Regional
       Tourism Organizations
              Western Australia (WA)
Key Strategies
• Pathways Forward: Strategic Plan 2003-2008
  – Grow WA tourism faster than the national average
  – Increase recognition of WA “iconic” experiences
  – Enhance visitor experience in WA
  – Grow regional tourism through partnerships and local
    empowerment
  – Make WA a natural choice for tourism investment
  – Achieve recognition for the tourism industry as a
    leading economic contributor to the State
                                          Ontario
The mission of the Ontario Tourism
Marketing Partnership Corporation
(OTMPC) is to:
  grow Ontario’s tourism sector year-round by
  stimulating increased consumer spending and visits and
  by generating greater partnership participation.
                                               Ontario
Key Strategies
• Develop experience-based tourism vs.
  activity/product based
  – focus on promoting emotional experiences associated
    with travel in Ontario and building a strong distinctive
    Ontario brand image
• Publications strategy
  – to support the new experience-based marketing strategy
    and generate year-round demand for travel
                                        Ontario
Key Strategies
• Internet and E-marketing Strategy
  – to capitalize on the ever-increasing consumer
    use of the internet for trip planning and
    bookings
  – and to support the ‘Ontario’ brand
• Northern Marketing Strategy
  – to build partnerships in Northern Ontario
                                               Ontario
Key Strategies
• Meetings, Conventions and Incentive Travel
  Strategy (MC&IT)
  – to reclaim Ontario’s position as a location of choice for
    major conventions and
  – to maximize incremental leisure travel stemming from
    the business travel
                          British Columbia
The mission of the Tourism British Columbia is to
ensure quality visitor experiences that grow the
success of British Columbia’s tourism industry.

The Tourism Branch of the Ministry of Small Business and
Economic development is working in partnership with
Tourism BC to develop a Provincial Tourism Strategy that
will provide a framework for driving and implementing key
provincial tourism deliverables.
                        British Columbia
Key Strategies
• Creation of jobs in the tourism industry and
  training
• Maximize the impact of Vancouver hosting the
  2010 Olympic and Paralympics Winter Games
• Incorporate technology that connects British
  Columbia tourism products and services with
  consumers efficiently
  What does this mean?

Where are the opportunities for
Alberta’s tourism industry in the
             future?
                     Psychographic Markets
• Outdoor adventure
  – Contests, events, challenging and new adventures
  – Typically outdoors
• Family Time- Relax
  – Time to be together, out of the daily routine, peace
  – Camping, hiking, backpacking, bird watching
• Culture and Learning
  – Museums, art galleries, cultural events and attractions
  – Immersion into different cultures
• Seclusion
  – Looking for peace and quiet
                           Outdoor Adventure
• The outdoor experience is still a major attraction of
  domestic and international tourists
• This segment is focused on new challenges, it is an
  accomplishment when finished.
• Major events and programs that provide new challenges to
  participants both during the event – typically and after
• Public support and programs are needed. Industry can
  develop products (e.g. guided tours, rentals, packages, etc.)
  around it - event lives on longer
                               Relax and Recharge
• As time limitations increase, especially in domestic markets, this
  segment will be looking for opportunities to travel shorter
  distances while still being able to participate in activities and re-
  connect with family.
• Want to stay close to home as they feel safer and more
  comfortable.
• Need family activities for the Alberta market from the Calgary-
  Edmonton corridor to other parts of the province.
• Will stay away from the Rocky Mountain corridor if other
  opportunities exist because of cost and capacity factors.
• These families enjoy camping, hiking, museums and other
  activities for the kids. Need activities for everyone in the family.
• Like packages and trails- decreases planning time and they are
  budget conscious- like itineraries.
• Need to improve and maintain local attractions.
                       Culture and Learning
• Both domestic and international markets, with emphasis on
  the international markets are looking for travel
  opportunities where they can learn about the history and
  culture.
• The overall experience should be specific to the region.
  They are looking for a new experience. e.g. Canadian
  Badlands with Aboriginal tourism components.
• Markets like China will be looking for tours that offer this
  type of component while being active. i.e. where they can
  get out and talk to people and learn hands-on.
• Need to maintain museums, historic sites, and other
  cultural attractions in the province
• Tours, trails, and information should have the local history,
  cultural attractions, and opportunities for interaction
                                               Seclusion
• In the domestic market especially the near-in markets, there is a
  segment that will be looking to “get away” from all the
  distractions.
• They will want to get away regularly on weekends and will want
  to stay close to home.
• With limited down-time from work and increasing family
  responsibilities, they will be looking for new places to go. This
  is especially true as the Rocky Mountain region reaches
  capacity.
• This segment likes the idea of a cabin near a lake where they
  can fish; they don’t need many amenities.
• Opportunity in regions of the province where some public
  infrastructure exists or can be built- where they can enjoy the
  outdoors, the peace and quiet, and some amenities close by.

								
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