2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Partnership For Disaster Response Task Force Meeting Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans & Atmosphere NOAA Administrator June 6, 2007 2006 Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season produced 9 named storms, of which five became hurricanes and two became major hurricanes. No hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2006. 2 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook Named Storms: 13-17 Hurricanes: 7-10 Major Hurricanes: 3-5 Near Normal 20% 2007 O utlook Probability Below Normal 5% Above Normal 75% 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 3 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be above normal. Climate patterns responsible for the expected above normal 2007 hurricane activity continue to be:  The ongoing multi-decadal signal (the set of ocean and atmospheric conditions that spawn increased Atlantic hurricane activity)  Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean  The El Niño/La Niña cycle. Sea Surface Temperatures, 5/31/2007 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 4 2007 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Outlook Named Storms: 12-16 Hurricanes: 6-9 Major Hurricanes: 2-4 Above Normal 5% Near Normal 25% 2007 O utlook Probability Below Normal 70% 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 5 2007 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season The 2007 Eastern Pacific hurricane season is expected to be below normal. The climate patterns responsible for the expected 2007 activity are:  The ongoing multi-decadal signal  The El Niño/La Niña cycle Sea Surface Temperatures, 5/31/2007 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 6 Summary 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook 7