Sequoia First, the primary investment objective is to not lose money Buffett has repeatedly warned: the successful investment, the first not to lose money, the second to remember the first. The primary objective of our investment is not losing money, not how much we wish. Contrary to most ordinary investors, the primary goal is to much money, not fully thought investment risk, but the final result is loss of money. Investment action, first and foremost task is to think how much investment risk, may lose up to much, not to develop much profit. Value investing to make money slowly, rely on compounded growth. Investment is a cause of growth by compound interest, the beginning speed is very slow, not fast, over time, more than 30 years the rate of profit began to accelerate. An example 1. Investment 100 million yuan, an annual compounded growth of 30%, 20 years, 1.9 billion; 2.6 billion for 30 years, turning 2600 times; 40 years, 36 billion yuan. 2. Investment 100 million yuan, an annual compounded growth of 20%, 20 years 38 million yuan; 30 years, 237 million, turned 237 times; 40-year 1.47 billion. ?Second, buying a larger margin of safety should be How can we do it without losing money? The approximate value of the core work is evaluated and found to significantly underestimate the (a greater margin of safety) investment opportunities. This is not to lose money the first magic wand. Is to do a lot of quality work, find a great safety margin to buy stocks of large chance. This opportunity is very small, often 3 - 5 years before a significantly undervalued opportunity, opportunities occur, to be bold in batches Jiancang, to do when others are fearful be greedy we should be bold. In fact the margin of safety analysis of the stock price is a few years a case of reverse investment, most people sell when fear we will fall greedily buying, most people buy when the boom we have to fear to sell. To fear is soaring high and low fall to greed, with the majority against, the people we have to fear, greed high, others low fear that we have to greed. This is a lonely job, many people can not, this is the key to the success of value investing, this is the failure of the majority minority the key to success. Most people want but it is difficult to do, because human nature is the herd, and people go along with the majority of the crowd, as people comply with the sheep herding. Sheep's head is a little lonely. ?Analysis of the margin of safety is the intrinsic value of the enterprise to assess. Valuation is an art, not science, not accurate, so long as the approximate range of broad scope. ?Suning enterprises such as net profit in 2007 was 1 per share, net profit up 40 before the three years - 100%, big bear coming, expected in the next 5 years the actual growth of 30% - 40%, but a conservative estimate ( keeping a safe margin) by 20%, the net profit after 5 years up to 2.5 million; then 10% of their present value discount rate is 1.5 yuan. Corresponding to the price earnings ratio of net income growth at the request of calculation = 1, 20 times earnings in 2007, net price 20 yuan, 5-year discounted value of 30 yuan. That is 30 yuan Suning Appliance is a very good investment opportunities, a large margin of safety, profitability is a high probability of the event. ?Such as China Vanke, the net profit growth of 49.8% in 2003, 04 years 61.91%, 2005 53.8% 2006 70.17%, 110.81% in 2007, which estimated that 20% growth in the next five years is a conservative, is the probability of achieving large. 2007 earnings per share 0.73 yuan, according to 20% compounded growth in five years 2 million; then 10% of their present value discount rate is 1.1 yuan, calculated at 20 times earnings the value of 20. Margin of safety calculation (play tickets) 8 yuan is a good buy, June 2008 10 to send five, security price is 6 yuan. ?With particular attention to the value of assessment: 1. Annual growth margin of safety to consider, whether the next five years to achieve; 2. Discounted value of the margin of safety considerations, the normal value is 6%, but we used 10%; 3. Bid price to more secure, generally 20 times the present value of earnings beat tickets. ?Technical analysis of long-term indicators such as the March quarter line line analysis, may find the following Suning is more low-cost 30 yuan. Value analysis and technical analysis can be said to be the same thing, the two are unified. The shortcomings of technical analysis can not determine the 30 yuan is to buy low-price, the valuation analysis of the shortcomings of the selling points is no more accurate, if a combination of both to be found in 30 yuan more accurate time to buy (with the weekly day Line indicators). Is to analyze the value of the growth of the stock price reaches the value of the pool area super underestimated, the broader market into the long-term technical indicators of whether the tail of a bear market. ?Third, the combination of long-term technical analysis to determine large CBBC This is the second non-losing magic. There are two points. First quarter line using tape Jin Cha Sicha Monthly indicators to determine the direction of the stock market's big CBBC. Contracts can largely determine the direction of large and can not find an appropriate trading points more accurate. Second, trading power and a big departure from the broader market stock price to determine the direction of the stock market and the large CBBC large investment opportunities. Quarter line with the broader market indexes on line, according to the broader market stock trading power and a big departure from the more accurate judgments can be big turning point CBBC city to discover the large investment opportunities, and can be found fairly accurate trading point. ?30% of the funds to do a bear market rally can be traded using weekly stock price strength and a small departure from the broader market to find trading opportunities. ?Fourth, search for excellence in high-growth enterprises The first step: the use of more than 30% net profit growth, the main revenue growth of 30% or more, more than 15% of net assets, liabilities, 60% search share the following four indicators, the establishment of the basic unit pool. The second step: the basic unit of the stock-by-pool analysis, the value of fixed investment growth stock funds pool shares of the annual pool of investment fund portfolio. ?Value Growth Fund will vote the stock pool to meet three conditions: 1. 30% net profit growth for three consecutive years or more, the main revenue growth of 30% or more, more than 15% of net assets of stock; 2. Industry prospects, there is great room for development; 3. Has a strong core competitiveness, which is a very wide moat, a franchise. Choose the CSI 100 Maotai, Suning Appliance, Changyu A, Offshore Oil, Yunnanbaiyao, Yantai Wanhua, Zhenhua Port Machinery, Poly Real Estate, China Vanke, Gree 10. Other selected a total of 20. ?Annual Fund's equity portfolio investment pool. To 30% net profit growth for two consecutive years or more, the main revenue growth of 30% or more, more than 15% of net assets of stock investment funds as the annual stock portfolio pool. A total of 60. ?Fifth, look for good investment portfolio 1. The value of fixed investment portfolio grew 5 - 10 only. 2. Annual investment fund 10 - 30 only. ?????????????????? VI, account management and trading strategies target 1. Target Management Sequoia Fund to establish the value of fixed investment account growth, annual portfolio investment accounts. Account value growth of fixed investment: May 8, 2008 set up 20 million seed money. Place in May each year 20 million will vote. Compounded by the table is scheduled to vote, more than 15% of compound interest, equivalent to 20 years after the money can be added to 120 times the investment 20 million per year into 24 million yuan in 20 years, 30 years into 116 million, 50 into 2.2 billion years. If the annual fixed investment 20 million, 100 years after the return of up to 4 trillion yuan, a little bit exaggerating, a joke? This shows the tremendous power of compound interest, the family set a 100-year investment requirements, the provisions of the implementation since 2008. Of course, this algorithm is not necessarily true. Broadly speaking profits certainly is amazing, and ultimately on the energy of a trillion is in the affirmative. ?Annual portfolio investment accounts: May 8, 2008 set up 60 million seed money. More than 30% annual compound interest, double the 2.4 years, 10 years of 8.3 million yuan, 110 million yuan for 20 years, 30 years after the value to 1.6 billion, that money turn 2666 times, 50 years to 290 billion yuan for capital appreciation; years more than 15% compound interest, double the 4.8 years, 10 years 2.4 million yuan, 9.8 million yuan for 20 years, 30 years after the financial value to 4,000 million for capital appreciation of 50 years to 6.5 billion. Wow, not do not know, be shocked, so to take this method investment firm. ?100 years calculated at 30% annual growth, funds can be added to 15 trillion yuan, less likely; 100 year 15% annual growth, funds can be added to 100 times the 700 billion yuan, which is also basically feasible. This shows the tremendous power of compound interest, Young's family, given a 100-year investment requirements, the provisions of the implementation since 2008. ?2. Trading strategies A. Buy. When the best combination of large investments as opportunities arise to be bold and be greedy, do not be afraid to sell the same as the general public. Jiancang stages, not one after buying. Because, after buying at valuation method are generally required to quilt or even a considerable period of time and space, therefore the largest margin of safety should the space to buy more or more each to buy 10%, down 5% plus one for each position, forces and the broader market in the trading price when the big departure from the full positions. Stock portfolio into the super first buy undervalued stocks do not meet the conditions do not buy, buy after the gradual optimization of the structure, the last 3 - 5 stocks account for more than 80% of funds. B. sell. First, enter the stock overvalued areas (based on the annual value of the assessment report) to gradually sell shares in the trading of power and big departure from the tape when the clearance. Second, there is a better undervalued stock into the super districts, you can sell the convertible. Third, the deterioration in the fundamentals of business to sell, can not be achieved by more than 20% five-year net profit. ?3. CBBC market position control 100% of the bull market over warehouse holdings. No financing no credit, do not do futures. Big bear 70% of the cash, or hold steady revenue bonds. 30% of the cash can earn a little money small departure from the rebound. ??????? Seven, to constantly assess, adjust the portfolio 1. By value assessment methods, the establishment of the annual value of the stock area, underestimated the area and overestimate the area. To buy into undervalued areas into the over-sold zone. 2. By technical analysis, buy a big bear market, bull market to sell; appear stock trading power and a large departure from the bear market to buy, sell bull market. 3. To write the annual value of the assessment report. May 8 at the completion of each year, because to wait for annual data as the basis. 4. Write a value investing, trends, investment notes. Handwritten notes to prevail. ?VIII, writing the value of the growth type of investment plan 1. Investment objectives. Stocks, funds, futures, real estate or other, you can write a variety of stock investment, industry, name, etc., remember to write on the reasons. 2. The proposed investment amount. Meaning that the amount of proposed investment how much money should be invested in this species, so that was helpful to control your money, to prevent a bet too much because of emotional factors. 3. Trade principles. Your investment process that do not fit to write here, for example: a loss for three consecutive years not involved in stock investment, for companies with credit problems do not participate in investments. Principles to achieve your writing clear, read carefully before investing several times, to prevent a bet too much because of emotional factors. 4. Trends Review. You want to invest on the stock's nearly a year to do a general description of trends, such as: a unit from a certain period began a few months from the date of consolidation. This broad objective of the stock in the past know your situation, it is best able to last year's big news has been written here. 5. Buying reasons. Here is why you write mainly about the stock to buy, what you are promising, such as: business growth, enterprise restructuring, new products and more. 6. Sell reasons. Here mainly to write, when the stock is in that situation, you will sell the stock. For example: results have been announced, the new products have been listed and so on. 7. The allocation of funds and the use of strategies. Intended to be divided into several funds, what strategies to use to buy, such as: the gradual increase the cost of buying method, or the group-buying and so on. Sell, they also how to write clearly is to sell in batches or one-time sale. 8. Stop settings. How to set specific stop-loss, why should a stop, before I have had to explain, you write clearly in the planning ratio of your stop or the stop-loss policy, stop combinations are written in it. 9. The specific implementation. Write specifically how much money you buy, how much to sell, in what form to buy, is not the same and the program. Seattle also write on the stock in trade when you have great things happen, such as: increase in reserve, and other policies to influence the market, or the listed company's number of important messages. Write aware of these policies, the time the message appears, the market's reaction, as well as your own practice, these experiences are valuable, very valuable. Finally, write down your trading stock how long were used, which holds a long, time must write clearly. 10. Differences in the implementation and planning, and why. Sometimes when we do plan to be considered not very place, in some cases did not expect, but in the course of the specific operation has encountered a problem, thus changing the previous plans, here you do not have the implementation plan should reason to write clear, then the results of the implementation plan does not clearly written on here, so easy to find your future. Finally, write the number on the profitability of this operation, there is a note, you can write any notes you want to write something, for example, do you stock in the course of the spiritual path, in the transaction process, what problems you encounter, How do you go to solve, think of what can be written in it. September, global vision, investment opportunities that fall Large domestic and international securities firms to establish horizontal linkages, master mature markets like the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries the trend, grasp emerging markets such as Russia, Brazil, China and other countries the trend, we should meet more than 50% plunge pay sufficient attention found that significant investment opportunities. Ten, summed up the value of growth reflect the investment strategy CBBC week cycles per year for each quarterly investment summary report should have, the right to be sure, the failure to identify the reasons for failure, found the right path. To the zero state of mind to examine the final report, not blinded by the past experience, to discover new things, to update the tactics. Second, third and nine oversized mainly about buying opportunities and rebound opportunities, specifically when trading. Fourth, the five main speakers to buy the stock, clearly what to buy. Sixth, seventh, eight mainly about how the business. First, the six major goals about stock investment. Article about the value of the investment strategy primarily reflect improved. Through long-term technical analysis and the value of the margin of safety assessment, the two results confirm each other mutual unity, to make big money can be found holding the bull market, bear market holding money does not lose money to make a profit. In fact, this is the Sequoia Fund's long-term stable investment in stock market growth of profit model compound. ?Sequoia Fund, which does not lose money to win big money of the two magic: The first magic: The value of the evaluated and found to be a gross underestimate (a greater margin of safety, the price into the undervalued area) of the bull market investment opportunities. The second magic: through long-term technical analysis and found that the broader market stock trading power and a large departure from the big bull market investment opportunities. ? Sequoia's core investment is flexible use of two magic, looking for super-large investment opportunities. 1. To analyze the value of the Growth Equity Pool value of the stock to reach the Super underestimate the area, the broader market into the long-term technical indicators of whether the tail of a bear market, the two conclusions confirm each other mutual unity, then the super-large (ie 3-5 years turning 5 - 10 times the opportunities) of the investment opportunities to come. Make big money when the opportunity arises, we must Jiancang greedy stage, when a large warehouse full of bull holding a clear, patient holding the feast to enjoy a bull market. ? 2. Analysis of the value of the share price growth to reach the value of the stock pool of super-over-area, long-term technical indicators of whether the broader market into bull's tail, the two conclusions confirm each other mutual unity, then the super-large (ie 3-5 years decreased 50 - 80% chance) the loss of big money chance to come. Loss of a lot of money when the opportunity arises, we must fear stage clearance, when the bear market all clear clearance, who are patiently waiting for the next opportunity to come. Really nothing you can grab a rebound, but must have weapons to protect themselves, or they will afford to lose a mess. (30% of the funds to do bear market rally can be traded using weekly stock price strength and a small departure from the broader market to find trading opportunities. There is no such weapons do not get involved, do not consider themselves smart, how much deficit disorder how many hands will hold.) ? To the permit based on the data of 100 stocks, according to 30% net profit growth for three consecutive years or more, the main revenue growth of 30% or more, more than 15% of net assets value of the stock as a growth stock pool. Maotai, Suning Appliance, Changyu A, Offshore Oil, Yunnanbaiyao, Yantai Wanhua, Zhenhua Port Machinery, Poly Real Estate, China Vanke, Gree 10. ? 1. Moutai Intrinsic value: 3 yuan per share in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate of 20 times earnings in calculating the intrinsic value of 90; the next 3 years, 30% compound growth rate, the intrinsic value of 148.5 yuan. ????Low Estimate: half of the amount calculated according to the safety bid 45 dollars or 74 yuan. ????Underestimated the area: the upper and lower 10% of the low valuation that is 40.5 - 49.5 million, or 66.6 - 81.5 yuan. ????Buy price: 45 yuan. Composite increased by 30% 3 years, buying low valuation: 74 yuan. ? 2. Suning Appliance Intrinsic value: earnings per share of 1.02 yuan in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate of 20 times earnings in calculating the intrinsic value of 31.6 yuan. The next 3 years, 30% compound growth rate, the intrinsic value of 52 yuan. ????Low estimate: 20% at 5 years compound growth rate, half of the amount calculated by the Security purchase price of 15.8 yuan; 30% at 3-year compound growth rate, calculated at half of the amount bid security of 26 million. ????Underestimated the area: 20% growth and low valuations underestimate the area down 10% 13.5 - 16.5 million; 30% growth and low valuations underestimate the area down 10% 23.4 - 28.6 million; ????Bid price: 15.8 yuan. Composite increased by 30% 3 years, buying low valuation: 25 yuan. ? 3. Changyu A Intrinsic Value: 1.21 per share in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate, calculated at 20 times earnings the value of area of 37.5 million. ????Low Valuation: Security purchase price calculated by half of the amount of 18.8 million. ????Underestimated the area: the upper and lower 10% of the low valuation that is 16 - 20 dollars. ????Bid price: 18.8 yuan. Composite increased by 30% 3 years, buying low valuation: 30 yuan. ? 4. Offshore Oil Engineering Intrinsic Value: 1.13 yuan per share in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate, calculated according to the value area of 20 times earnings at 34 yuan, 10 get 10, so the price adjustments of 17.5 million. ????Low Estimate: half of the amount calculated by purchase price is 8.8 yuan Security ????Underestimated the area: the upper and lower 10% of the low valuation that is 7.7 - 9.4 million. ????Buy price: 8.8 yuan. ? 5. Yunnanbaiyao Intrinsic value: 0.7 yuan per share in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate, calculated according to the value area of 20 times earnings 21.7 million. ????Low Valuation: Security purchase price calculated by half of the amount of 10.9 million. ????Underestimated the area: the upper and lower 10% of the 9 - 12 yuan to buy. ????Bid price: 10.9 yuan. ? 6. Yantai Wanhua Intrinsic Value: 0.89 yuan per share in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate, calculated at 20 times earnings the value of area 27.6 million. ????Low Valuation: Security purchase price by half of the amount calculated at 13.8 yuan. ????Underestimated the area: the upper and lower 10% or 12 - 15 yuan to buy. ????Bid price: 13.8 yuan. ? 7. Zhenhua Port Machinery Intrinsic Value: 0.65 yuan per share in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate, calculated according to the value area of 20 times earnings in the 20. ????Low Estimate: half of the amount calculated according to the safety bid 10 dollars. ????Underestimated the area: low valuation that is down 10% 9 - 11 yuan to buy. ????Buy price: 10 yuan. ? 8. Poly Real Estate Intrinsic value: 1.3 yuan per share in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate, calculated according to the value area of 20 times earnings at 40 yuan, 10 get 10 stock price was adjusted to 20.15 yuan. ????Low Estimate: half of the amount calculated according to the safety bid 10 dollars. ????Underestimated the area: the upper and lower 10% of the 9 - 11 yuan to buy. ????Buy price: 10 yuan. ? 9. Vanke Intrinsic value: earnings per share of 0.73 yuan in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate, calculated according to the value area of 20 times earnings at 20 yuan, 10 get 6 shares adjusted to 14.1 yuan. ????Low Estimate: half of the amount calculated according to purchase price of 7 yuan safety. ????Underestimated the area: the upper and lower 10% or 6.3 - 7.7 yuan to buy. ????Buy price: 7 yuan. ? 10. Gree Electric Appliances Intrinsic value: earnings per share of 1.58 yuan in 2007. The next 5 years at 20% compound growth rate, calculated according to the intrinsic value of 20 times earnings 48 yuan, 10 get 5 shares adjusted to 32.65 yuan. ????Underestimated the area: security purchase price by half of the amount calculated was 16.3 million. ????Underestimated the area: the upper and lower 10% or 14 - 18 yuan to buy. ????Bid price: 16.3 yuan.
Pages to are hidden for
"Sequoia - Download Now PDF"Please download to view full document