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					Markets
Bottom main stock index fell 0.69 percent rebound in the fall of 3000
points
????Today both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock index opened lower stock
index opened to 2998.91 points, down 0.15%; Shenzhen Component Index
opened to 12,185.93 points, down 0.23%. After the opening run was a
low Stock Index opened down vibration pattern of stock index moved
down to 2950 points and a line focus, Hong Kong stocks rose led by the
morning, stocks opened the afternoon picked up the final V-shaped main
stock index reversed approach 3000.

????Until closing, Hu Zhi close at 2982.57 points, down by 0.69%,
closing 99.82 billion yuan; Shenzhen Component Index ended at
12,069.21 points, down from 1.18%, closing 62.41 billion yuan.

????Section point of view, financial, futures, stocks, sales of
non-ferrous resources; of things, Xinjiang plate, Fujian plate, GEM,
Guangxi plate, smart grid and other more active.

????Individual stocks, most stocks continue to adjust, now up more
than a few family or home, not including ST stocks, Miki Group,
Guanghua century, the Industrial Welfare and other 18 stocks daily
limit, no share limit-down. N coast of new shares opened flat, plate
suddenly rose to a maximum rose up 31.32%, to close at 22.14 yuan, up
16.53%.

????Ping 860 million by selling shares will be limited to 1 March
traded effect, today tumbled by the insurance segment, Ping An
intraday limit-down, closing down 8.88%.

????Policy information surface, the more important are the Political
Bureau: To improve the level of macro-control to maintain stable and
rapid economic development; 11 brokerages have reported margin pilot
program; eliminate backward production capacity this year to finalize
the task, the upcoming provincial indicators; stock index futures
Opening the first day of a little cold, investors wait for a clear
correlation rules; the United States and Europe and other markets both
down.

????----------------------------------------

????Main stock index rebounded slightly by the afternoon the fall of
3000 mark of 20.8 points

????Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets extended losses today,
heavyweight group lower, insurance, futures, financial and other
sections in the doldrums, China's Ping An sentiment lifted the weight
of the stock index recovered some ground in the afternoon rally, the
day fell slightly by 0.69%, but still failed to Station on 3000 point
barrier.

Trend continues today in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slump
yesterday stock index that is easily opened fall 3000, by the collapse
of China's Ping An, market sentiment once again frustrated stock index
has slumped more than 50 points will be half day. Stock out of the
wave of the afternoon rally, before settlement by the Hong Kong stock
index rebounded strongly to boost stock index declines narrowed,
heavyweight mass rally, rising plate significantly increased in the
afternoon trend is relatively stable, fluctuations in stock within a
narrow range around 2970 points.

End closing stock index points reported 2,982.58, down 20.82 points,
or 0.69%, turnover of 99.87 billion yuan; Shenzhen Component Index
reported 12,069.21 points, down 144.33 points, or 1.18%, turnover of
14.433 billion yuan.

Disk perspective, today's overall lower plate, insurance, futures,
financial, resources, four plate leading decliners. Despite the
narrowing of the afternoon decline, but the volume is still not
enlarge to show confidence in market sentiment is still insufficient.

China Ping An announcement last night by 859 million shares held by
employees will be traded on March 1, the stock price fell today met,
cut-off to close at 44.72 yuan, down 8.88% in intraday trading
limit-down. Insurance stocks collective frustration, China Life down
and 3.14%; China Pacific Insurance 3.35% fall.

Futures plate full line of low, despite reports that stock index
futures, or will be officially listed on Mar. 22, investors are still
waiting to see, the first day of opening popular indifference. China
fell 5.52 percent medium-term; Daheng technology or 5.48%; Zhongshan
University shares fell 7.31%, 4.63% or high-tech development.

Brokerages fell across the board plate, GF Securities failed to extend
rally today, the day down 4.14%; Northeast Securities, Changjiang
Securities, China Securities decline in gold were over 3%.

Afternoon, as the stock rebounded, rising regional concept of plate
buck the trend, the west side of lead, Xinjiang, Tibet XNG, paper,
online games, power, agriculture and other sections are also more
active in the afternoon.

Individual stocks, stocks rose gradually increased afternoon, China
Wuyi, Miki group, Qingshan Paper and other 17 stocks daily limit, no
limit-down stocks. N shore of the session shares rose suddenly, is
temporarily suspended, the day the stock rose 16.53%.

Analysis said the sharp drop in China's Ping An is to play a role in
fueling the monetary tightening triggered by fears of the market's
weakness. (China News)

????Main ways to adjust or near the end game?

????Core Tip: Balance long and short side today, news, and more
include moderately relaxed monetary policy, central to reiterate, a
surge in demand the whole of society; empty European stock markets
have dropped slightly, the Politburo said the austerity policy remains
unchanged. Difficult broader market higher yesterday in line of
weakness 20, after a lower opening today, and accelerate the edge
lower, after falling platform to early 2938, however, picked up the
afternoon, the final main stock index ended down 20.83 points, again
below the 3,000 mark integer. Yesterday the market expected a
"good start" deceptive, today's decline is expected to fall
in large part a psychological response, while the late recovery is the
main opportunity is accumulation? Main market outlook, how will the
game? Specific and see below analysis!

1, main effect of information and interpretation of behavior

1, the central reiterated moderately loose monetary policy, to grasp
the intensity rhythm;

2 of the Central Political Bureau proposed austerity policy remains
unchanged, the central mention the management of inflation
expectations, survival rate is still upside potential;

3, National Energy Board released in January of the whole society
electricity consumption and other data, in January the National
Electricity Consumption growth of 40.14 percent year on year, growth
of 2.7%.

Information Interpretation: the present stage of asset price bubbles,
inflation expectations are not stable management and conflict economic
recovery has become increasingly prominent, high-level policy is also
very worried about the exit to stimulate recovery has led to the loss
can only adopting subtle adjustment measures, while continuing to
maintain appropriate loose monetary policy, while the reserve ratio
increases, and the means to temporarily hike will not be easily shot.
Consumption accelerated growth reflects the rapid recovery of high
energy consuming industries, but also to some extent, suggesting the
urgency of restructuring.

Second, the major behavior analysis
1, Fund: resonance sentiment index 50, main attack Plate: CSI 300,
electronics, finance,

Short-term behavior: Pupil balance, with the retail game;

Long-term behavior: The defense dominated.

According to the monitoring of several fund research data shows that
in the last week before the stock fund significantly lower positions.
Bohai Securities Fund position monitor model, into the statistical
range of 290 partial shares of open-end funds last week, the average
position was 77.70%, 80.91% over the previous week down 3.21%. In
which the average equity fund positions was 81.25%, compared to the
previous week down 3.71%; Mixed Fund's average position was 73.21%,
down 2.57% over the previous week.

Decline in the fund position is on the opposite card index in the year
up 2.68% last week, the index fund positions up and down, indicating
funds are still in the reduced position by oversold bounce.

Reduce the causes of fund positions include: a high-raised funds
currently own positions, most funds are still 8.5 percent above
position; 2 the central bank has raised the reserve ratio, the Fed
raised the discount rate shown substantial stimulus withdrawal had
begun, income mobility compact will be trend; Third, the market's
structural foam serious, in 2009 more than double the most individual
stocks, most stocks have been severely overdrawn subject matter, the
market has great structural adjustment requirements; Fourth,
increasingly with the launch of stock index futures approaches, we
also need to free up some funds in cash positions to the layout of
finger protection. Although the Fund are lowering their positions, but
they are large-scale shipments of the situation at this stage
unlikely, more a moderate position at the same time reduce the
convertible notes warehouse layout to meet the CSI 300 blue-chip stock
index futures market.
2, hot money, QFII: resonant sentiment indicator 50 main attack Plate:
finance, machinery, iron and steel

Short-term behavior: Duanchao arbitrage;

Long-term behavior: the layout of that market.

The dollar index fell slightly during the Spring Festival first then
began to rise sharply, and again to refresh the past 8 months to a new
high to 81.34 position. Following the Dubai stock market tumbled,
Iceland, Greece, the credit crisis, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and
Spain, has an atmosphere of paranoia, this market worries about
sovereign credit risk, financial market risk aversion warming, promote
the global flow of capital, dollar, emerging markets are also affected
by heavy blow. Raise the discount rate after the Fed announcement on
February 19th, the day Nikkei fell 212 points, or 2.09% to; Hong Kong
Hang Seng index plunged 528 points, or 2.59% up.

Raise the discount rate measures the United States to promote
short-term funds to speed up return of the U.S. market, so in the
short term will cause further pressure on emerging markets. However,
stock index futures for the upcoming A-share market, do not rule out
their dollars back through the global fund that the layout of data
secretly under cover of that market.

Third, investment opportunities and risks

The direction of the summary: Today, news of a balanced long and
short, many include moderately relaxed monetary policy, central to
reiterate, a surge in demand the whole of society; empty European
stock markets have dropped slightly, the Politburo said the austerity
policy remains unchanged. Difficult broader market higher yesterday in
line 20, after fatigue, a lower opening today, and test a low speed,
after falling into the early 2938 Platform, but picked up the
afternoon, the final main stock index was down 20.83 points, again
below the 3,000 mark integer. Article in this column yesterday,
"good start" that is expected to fall of main plot is
probably today's opening speed test a low pressure in the main plus a
large extent the market is expected to fall as a psychological
reaction, to join in the majority of investors to sell when the main
force began low capital accumulation, which is why heavy volume
climbed, because there the afternoon. After two months of adjustment,
the current financial position should be at the main stage of the
restructuring of the end, post more important question is how low
accumulation, although the accumulation stage of their repeated the
broader market is inevitable, but long-term has been need to worry
about a greater decline. (Guangzhou Bandung)

????How to wait and see attitude with the market in March it?

????Today, the common market in the periphery and domestic troubles,
the produced signs of fatigue, Fortunately, in oversold stocks
gradually expand the value of self-expression, but the subject matter
of the fire remains to be seen whether the prairie, and from the disk
observations, and from hot spot analysis, the concept of plate today,
the overall strong regional revitalization, Tibet, Xinjiang, Fujian,
Chongqing, rose four regions ranked list of the first plate; therefore
the regional theme in March is still among the key focus of many
research and analysis, obtain short-term gains, I would be very easy
to highlight the fighter in the shock market price.

Market will regain active level and the steps along the

Currently support strong economic growth trend is likely to promote
the valuation reflected in the market as soon as possible during the
operation, 3,000 refused or near the shock strength should be
considered as endogenous is poised to meet this trend in coming. In
addition, we judge market trends assumption is also made no change:
the market is still expected in 2010, 2011, the performance growth of
30%, 20% or more, in January enhanced export growth will continue to
rise expectation of RMB appreciation .
Positive factors in the future the market will inevitably lead to the
emergence of negative factors and emotional repression, the comparison
with the shift in investor behavior will make a positive change, then
the market warming. March's "two sessions" may be further
confirmed that the Government policy to extend the economic cycle,
increase sustainability of economic growth targets, rather than a
control monetary liquidity and inflation, which exceeded market
expectations, market confidence is restored. In addition, European
countries became sovereign debt crisis hanging over global investors
head Damolisi sword, but with the panic of the vent and the euro-zone
governments together to resolve sovereign debt problems, the sword may
be in the six months to a was removed the year. In March, with the
margin trading, stock index futures introduction of innovative
products such as surface, the market would regain active trading
market along class and on stage.

View large investment institutions reflect how the meaning changes?

View of the current situation at home and abroad, we also summarize
the major investment banks, institutions determine the prospects of
macroeconomic and policy were adjusted report. As the strong recovery
in the U.S. and other economies, we will China 2010 GDP growth revised
upward to 10%, and that GDP growth will be in the first half of more
than 10% range. To overheating in the economy, while
inflation-than-expected rise will occur, we will mean by 2010 from
2.5% CPI rise 3.3%, but does not exclude the CPI forecast to continue
with the possibility raised.

For additional information, we also see a lot in the recent amendments
to the views of brokers report late last year. For the United States,
although we think that the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to a trend
line to the second half of 2010 to appear, so the time needed the
Federal Reserve raising interest rates until late 2010, but with
strong U.S. economic recovery, particularly in the manufacturing
industry Inventory investment to succeed and then become the new
driving force for economic recovery, the Fed rate hike expectations in
advance are also continuing to strengthen. In the January 27 vote in
the FOMC interest rate meeting, the members have cast a negative vote,
reflecting the Federal Reserve on whether to maintain a low interest
rate differences have emerged.

Macroeconomic policies from the Chinese practice of the past
experience, the central bank raise interest rates by inflation and the
impact of U.S. rate hikes are not too large, and influenced by
domestic economic growth. We believe that the real interest rate
increase is triggered by an overheated economy, economic growth is
more than 10% of the hot zone. Based on our current economic situation
to judge, we think that the tightening cycle will start earlier, at
present the most likely time window late in April. And if interest
rates during the first half cash, the deposit reserve ratio will be
taken up once a quarter the frequency.

The main factors over the expected future comes from exports and
prices change. If the exports continued to recover, driven hot money
inflows and inflation, then the economy will increase the risk of
overheating, policy control will be more advanced.

What the market is now in the foundation?

Current market value of investment into the range of valuations, the
market under the policy silent on the existence of rebound
opportunities. From the internal environment, the rapid increase in
prices in December with chance factors, we judge the 2010 CPI increase
of about 3%, still moderate control. Meanwhile, the recent euro-zone
economy out of crisis caused by the external policy of slow progress,
the formation of external constraints, the Chinese monetary policy can
not be "one step." January essence of monetary policy is
still based out of "correction" and "hedging" the
main, not the real sense of austerity, the policy out of the market
overreacted to the next stage of the policy may dilute the period. We
estimate that a quarter of new credit will reach 2.5-3 trillion yuan,
far less than 2 trillion better than market expectations.
Liquidity from the market point of view, we believe that supply and
demand of funds within the next couple of months the trend will change
for the better. IPOs within the next couple of months will be a marked
change, IPO amount, the issue price will be decreased, the scale of
2,3 month financing is expected to IPO decreased by 30% compared to
the previous two months, on the secondary market will significantly
weaken the role of financial triage. Meanwhile, the partial stock
funds position has changed from a high point by the end of December
fell 5 percent, capital maneuvers space increases with offensive
terms. Significantly ease the supply and demand of funds will help the
market up.

In short:

Since the tape has been successfully entered in February to build a
small form W-bottom, along with the recent amplification began to
choose a moderate volume breakout. Index index analysis with the band
split, as long as the tape running above the central axis 3004, the
market outlook index is expected to maintain upward shock pattern, or
further order shocks are required, but still stocks on the major
opportunities, especially in some regions on the performance of plate
more concrete and hot.

				
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posted:9/28/2010
language:English
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