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Digest Successful, the majority of people are attractive, is dream of every trader and headed. The success is broadly based on the useful experience gained from a life in the way of life. It is the successful result of a long self-improvement; is successful after the failure of short-term results obtained with the setbacks; is successful growing, learning, and self-improvement process. The success of futures trading is the trading year, the trading profits were to stabilize the capital to growth, personal enrichment happy transaction. However, the futures margin system, contingency and one-sidedness in order to avoid misleading, industry professionals, the content of the specific requirements of this definition into four aspects: First, capital account of the curve of the year to maintain a steady increase in the state, in which losses can not exceed the month 2-3 months; second curve capital account fell from a high point can not be any more than 30%; third is 100 times the number of transactions have a transaction in order to have statistical significance; Fourth, in the transaction process, with the principle point of view specifically, whether profit or loss, state of mind can maintain peace and stability, and from feeling full and happy. For any of the traders, in order to achieve this state, must be four conditions (indispensable): accurate analysis, the right trading strategy and strict self-discipline, scientific money management. First, the accurate analysis Futures market is always in equilibrium with imbalance of the two forms of conversion, the role of the external and internal factors, the market shifted from the equilibrium of balance, then move to a new equilibrium state of imbalance. Therefore, any one transaction, as long as want to do transactions, in order to profit, must be on the current situation and future market trends and analysis to make judgments, and in the analysis to address the variety of price movement in the direction, operation rate and operation time, these three issues. This is the first condition for successful transactions. How to conduct market analysis, traders have certain knowledge, based on the assumption based on the full step by step interpretation of the principles and conditions, the use of dialectical materialism, the view that a comprehensive, development, and movement of ideas, through fundamental analysis, technical analysis and psychological analysis for the general public. Fundamental analysis is based on the expected production of goods, inventory, demand is expected to analyze the price trends. It has two characteristics: First, long-term trend of price movements; the second is that the nature of price changes, macro. Through fundamental analysis to determine the current price of a commodity price is reasonable and to describe its long-term development, so that we can understand should be long or short term which varieties. Most traders in view of R & D capability, knowledge, statistical capacity is limited, in view of the futures market is more a band market, fundamental analysis is very difficult to grasp in the transaction and widespread use, and most traders are concerned about the daily news or is not a fundamental analysis of various rumors, so it can not as a transaction basis. Technical analysis is based on past and present stock market behavior is analyzed, and applied mathematics and logical way to explore some typical changes in law, and to predict future changes in market trends in technology and methods. It has three characteristics: First, the price per unit time by the change showed fluctuation and transition; second, chasing trends, rather than create or boot trend; third is a true record of the historical trajectory. Through technical analysis, mainly to solve the following problems: 1, that trend In the futures market, the profit model has four. The average profit rate as low odds model, the average profit rate of low-odds model, the average profit rate of high-odds model, the average profit rate of high odds model. In these four profit model, and trends associated with, the flow rate of the low chance of winning the average profit model is to ensure stable profits, the best mode of long-term profitability. So, that trend, following the trend of trading a top priority. Identification of trends in many, many, such as price patterns, moving average systems, trend lines, technical indicators, and so the Dow Theory. However, note that some of these indicators are more or less defects, so trends should be noted that four issues deal: First, only after the trend is always easy to see, for the time, trends can form, how long it can run difficult to know, can only make probability judgments based on experience; second line of the phenomenon of cheating is inevitable, and have occurred, all the signals as a basis for action become clear until very late, so we must be able to continue based on successful trading profit or to obtain huge profits to compensate for these shortcomings may result in the loss, not because the cheat line to lose patience and confidence of trends; third is to be able to distinguish between the common trend of minor adjustments and turn around new trends in the first reversal a charge; fourth trend traders trading on the quality and strength of traders demanding money to be able to endure the loss of out time and time again, and still have the strength to wait. Grasp the principle on whether the assessment of trends, consider the following issues: the historical trend of the market like? Is how to go today? How will that trend? Trend is currently in early, mid or late? What are the criteria the stock market? Delisting criteria? Do you want to participate in adjustment? How to determine the trend end? 2, the assessment of the atmosphere. Assess the general atmosphere and the potential market direction is the first step transaction, which is used to Mozhun market trends, to determine the accuracy of the timing involved, the decision is in a favorable position in the environment. Assessment includes: the current market environment in China? Take the initiative is multi-market or short side? How they are involved in? Direction in the original run on you? The intensity of how to run? 3, find support and resistance. Start up or down when the price, how much space to run, depends largely on the support and resistance, a position also in the best position near the pressure or support, so look for support and resistance analysis is very important. Pressure, support usually refers to the trend of the previous high or low, a clear trend line, channel, moving average, price integer, form the boundary line of the gap in the neckline, percentage retracement or intensive trading range and so on. Long or short the best time to intervene is not easy to be broken near the support or resistance, if the judge is correct, the breakdown of these positions, it will lead to a large number of follow suit and stop-plate, having a considerable profit; if an error of judgment losses will not be great. 4, observing market developments Based on price patterns, moving average systems and trend indicators to understand the market developing? Whether the anticipated trend? Trend is stronger than expected, or weaker than expected? Running time is reasonable? Their own trading strategy adopted is correct? Mass psychological approach is mainly the emergence of mass hysteria and consequences of behavior analysis. Is from the "market psychology to the price" of ideas. Which is defined in the direction of the market is about to reverse or maintain the original direction of the critical point, the market-led forces to control by those who speculated that the psychological price positioning as a basis to analyze the flow of funds led (capital flows) in order to determine future market direction methods. Such as "smart swing trading," a book put it, stabilize earnings from the road can not inquire into too much insider information and a wealth of knowledge, but from the understanding of human behavior and how human behavior into the market understanding of behavior. Behavior of the market in the public research base with the three variables, namely, price changes, volume changes and changes in positions. Price change, both long and short description of what directly what the weak strong contrast features; volume represents the liquidity, it is the price change, reflecting the activities of traders, to a certain extent determines the price and the trend after . Positions through the increase or decrease to reflect the long and short sides stationed outside and inside incremental funding precipitate withdrawal of funds compared open posture; the level of open interest on behalf of the market efficiency or liquidity, it is a measure of the market the current trading price of the ability to attract new; in the high level of open interest below the market very liquid. For example, in the futures market, trading a lot of variety, although its own trading capital is to choose a variety of conditions of trading, but the choice of species is more important is when the liquidity and volatility of choice varieties, which requires the observation positions. So far since last fall, corn (information, quotes) and the wheat market has not reason, is because the positions are too small reason. Second, the right trading strategy How to better apply the analysis to the actual operation depends on the correct trading strategy. Note that, in the trading decision, the decision itself does not act out of the city called the strategy, policy should be to support it, the specific trading scheme or design, it is an overall, long-term and fundamental colors. Trading strategies could include individual or specific trading money management, trading the opportunity to choose, losses and profits of an arrangement and plans; also contains technology-related transactions and transactions associated with the overall approach, the trader behavior and the process approach and other specific technical content. But the content should have a certain system features, a thorough, integrity and a certain professional standard. In the specific transaction, trading strategy is divided into two aspects, one is run according to market strategies developed by the way, that momentum trading strategy and the contrarian trading strategy; one is established under the trading hours of the trading strategy, that intraday strategy, short-term trading strategies, swing trading strategies, trend trading strategy. (A) of the momentum trading strategies and contrarian trading strategies There are two ways to run the market, a single up or down along the direction of operation; one is the upper and lower horizontal run not by much. According to this two different operation modes, we will be divided into momentum trading trading strategy trading strategies and contrarian strategies. Trading strategies in the use of homeopathy, you need to understand is: For the new information, traders Bingbu make immediate response, but rather a period of time the message Xiaohua. In the face of the situation requires careful consideration, the transaction may be performed too cautious, often hesitation, inaction. Trader's personality, the amount of information they receive, their attitude and their respective types of investors will affect the length of delay, a phenomenon which implies a trading opportunity. Momentum trading strategy is the trend of the scope and trends at the beginning of the process moving. Using this strategy requires that we first measure the public's views, has been launched in the market, but people were cautious and hesitant on the information, the time to get into, and continue the process of development in the trend of overweight, which follow the market operation. The use of contrarian trading strategy, you need to understand is: If people hold certain views, and everyone to take action based on that view, the market had no funds to continue to push prices towards the original direction. The scope of contrarian trading strategy is the trend at the end. This strategy requires us to measure public opinion, when they view the situation to an unreasonable extreme, they do the opposite. It has been concluded that by the statistics: The band-type operating profit advantage of the opportunity is greater than 75% of the surface, while the single point of technical analysis from the top and bottom grab the probability is less than 1%. Therefore, for these two strategies, market trends relative contrarian trading more easy to grasp, but the success rate of operation is much higher than the contrarian. (B) different times of the trading strategies In the market, there are days the trend Xingqing, and the trend band Xing Xing Qing Xing Qing, in each transaction, be sure to understand their participation is to be kind of Xingqing, because different the market, not the same evaluation methods, expectations are different. For the days of operation, the most important thing is to determine the date of the potential market power and the potential buyer power and sell power to seize the market psychology as early as possible in order to maintain consistency with the trend of the day, and prices have more than or close to it every changes in the normal range of day when, immediately collect profits. In this process, the reaction is more important than analysis. For band operation, the most important thing is the adjustment in the trend at the end of intervention in the trading process does not accept the adjustment, found that the kinetic energy prices rise or fall when less immediately exit positions. The trend of operation, consists of two processes, the trend started at the beginning of storage, look for the trend adjustment to the end point jiacang. In trading, many traders because it did not understand the reason, why they frequently injured. For example, many traders are now in a variety of external factors and their influence factors, are both committed to this year's wave of commodity markets will be an upward trend, but the trend of the future what form of development, their psychological quality, operation, etc. What will happen to the changes forward or reverse without serious consideration. Some traders would have a substantial profit, because they can not understand the situation just in time to win makes a substantial profit-taking, but also the trend of the market outlook was the confusion, fear flies every day, so their positions are often flat in the the lowest point of the day. However, some traders not only in the current market correction does not make money, that is, trends in March the band did not make money in the market, all a chase sell. (C) has a trading system Trading system is a complete trading system. A well-designed trading system is built on the basis of practice, which requires all relevant aspects of investment decisions made by the corresponding specific provisions, such provisions must be objective, the only, does not allow different interpretations of any . It also must meet the user's psychological characteristics, the statistical characteristics of investments and risk characteristics of investment funds. A complete trading system should include these aspects: the choice of transaction types, using methods which confirm the timing of market transactions, the specific price range and how to implement the deal, how much money, how to determine the trend of the stock market after the normal and No, what kind of situation occurs stop or just win out, unexpected incidents on the preventive measures are, how to handle their own misdeeds, the system fails, how to do so. To be able to play a role in trading systems, users must do the following: 1, must understand their own system: the system must be out of their own development, so as to understand the significance of each link, we can easily withstand the inevitable failure, great achievements will not be carried away; 2, must trust their own system: according to their own learning and trading experience, historical data according to their own tests, I will understand traders feasibility of the system conditions and success probability, this will give traders a strong self-confidence and courage Whether the future is to continue or closing a trade would be a natural behavior; 3, must follow its own system: as long as continue to follow it, and slowly traders will find the good and bad trading losses and not profit, but no one is controlling risk. To this day you will also find trade is not very hard. If, with the growth of experience and new knowledge, to change the trading system, such changes must be in a position not only can make the case; 4, must be alert to their own system: the results of the trading system used, the more good, more users to remain vigilant. Therefore, just as Carl said: "We in the field of knowledge, any gains made in the existing theory from the challenge, not maintenance." But also to overcome the following obstacles: 1, each system, each way, each trader has a loss of time, while the loss is the biggest obstacle to follow the system. If you can not endure the inevitable series of transactions losses, then the system will be constantly changing, so give a good trading system; 2, no one can tell the system whether the future will be profitable; 3, the system will make a profit not a profit is often the system looks like; 4, the transaction is subject to the same emotions and follow the test system; 5, can not always think of changing it, in any case we like to trade for does not exist. Third, the strict self-discipline As the saying goes, "No rules, no standards." Uncertainty of transactions in the world, more self-discipline is very important. Despite a variety of self-regulation is likely to make you deviate from the correct path of temptation, but the ability to control their behavior. In the trading world, self-discipline is the development and the ability to follow the trading scheme is to predict when your plan will not work and is no longer in its failure to follow its capacity. Its performance is, or as you amass wealth, or make you Diukuixiejia; loss, you can Dousoujingshen unwilling to return once again failed transaction positions; can be free from external information and has nothing to do with your system, the signal interference ; do not chase too much trading volume, trading can be a reasonable size if the security of Thailand; consistently adhere to their own trading system, improve the trading day, the system continuously; either elated to win the day before, or lost in a mess, will appear in the trading field and so on. Visible, self-discipline and strive to achieve its objectives the commitment, motivation and spontaneity. But the self is not born with a quality, it depends on nurture. Each has extensive transaction experience that friends are more or less have the same experience, and often made some very stupid mistakes, and after that to think of it can not forgive myself. Such as fear, because fear can not be very realistic assessment of the facts in front, but with all your heart to focus on the dangerous side, resulting in the following pitfalls: long after the price dropped to sell; miss the best buy; sell too early and so on. This is the "Decade of a dream," puts it: knowing that I can not. Therefore, we can not assume that they have a successful trader with self-discipline, in fact we are much poorer for it. Recalling the past, many predecessors, and their defeat was not because of lack of method, nor is the lack of skills, because a lack of self-discipline. So, how to be strict self-discipline it? Only one answer, that is based on the experience of others or their own, develop and comply with trading rules. Gann's trading rules such as: Every time the stock market trading, trading losses should not exceed one-tenth of the capital; always set a stop loss position; never excessive trading; never let the position taken profit into loss; not buck the trend to; there is doubt that the open dispersal; only in the active market; never limit access to City, trading in the market; if no proper justification, do not open the position taken, can only make a bit Security Income profit; Lien Chan in the market, both wins, you can extract some of the profits to be the time of emergency preparedness; buy stocks should not only hope to earn interest; trading losses trick, should not overweight; Do not be impatient and the market, nor because impatience in the open; willing to lose would not win, cut ring; the stock market falling when the stop order, not arbitrarily canceled; make more mistakes, the stock market to wait for an opportunity, not speculation too close; investigation put it well, do not should only unilateral; Do not price too low to absorb, because the price is too high and do not short; avoid pyramid at an inappropriate time coded; if no proper justification, change the position taken to avoid the random trading strategy. Seemingly simple rules, but think about it, or the frequent loss of those important not because of violation of the principle of loss caused, so to develop and implement rules for how important it is. Fourth, the scientific management (A) Risk Management Futures full of uncertainty, no matter how much knowledge and experience with, no matter how sure the hearts of the total, or an accident occurs, there are risks associated. Therefore, each transaction must consider not only how many are willing to take risks, but also consider how much risk to take; and risk management and control is not only throughout the entire transaction process, it is in every transaction of risk before assessment and prevention. Under the deal process, risk management and control divided into three parts: pre-control, things in control, after control. 1, the prior control. Prior control, including position control and preset stop loss, profit. For novice traders, because of professional knowledge and trading experience at a disadvantage, in order to study with the minimum cost method to verify the transaction, to accumulate trading experience, it's best to open hand each transaction list, jiacang only Add hand. For experienced traders, but also remember the stop-loss insurance is not universal, in the large market volatility when the stop is no good, because the market directly open circuit breakers, so every opening must control within reasonable limits, do not ever forget to give yourself leeway. For example if it is to do more, then the left margin at least able to cope with your daily limit with the three varieties. In addition, in order to prevent errors and to determine the future protection of profits, each transaction must be set to stop only win. However, the right to adjust the stop price solution to this problem might be to design a successful system, the most difficult part. I remember someone once described: the stop price set is a most subtle and perfect the art of effective trend is the key to the transaction. Stop price or too tight, the price of falling as frequently small technical swing, you are constantly being cut out of the market; or too loose, will you take a huge, can not prevent the loss of, or retrograde in the market, it will Most of book profits back to the market. It can be said that the level of individuals is closely related to the operation, the higher the level, stop location is also more comfortable. In order to better set the stop-loss, we must first understand that in order to immediately stop set stop losses, rather than trying to reduce losses. So when the stop occurs, it must first leave the market, not the bargain, as touched the stop, has indicated that misjudgment, which lost its bargaining rights. But truth is easier said than done. Stop the one hand, we need to have a solid foundation of technical analysis theory and rich experience in spot trading; the other hand, we need to stop trading with superb skill; then we need to stop the one hand, have a good mental qualities. The ability of these three persons for each transaction, there is no learning for several years, not thousands of real trading experience, there is no strong execution, can not have. In practice, I often see some friends in the amount of funds set up stop loss; some of the time as a stop. In fact, this approach is one-sided, with a stop more than just the premise of whether there is a loss, but to correct the error as a precondition, that does not appear if you expect the market trend, or did you have no basis to judge at this time whether it is profit or loss, you must first withdraw. For example: a long-term consolidation of a variety of forms from the break to do more you buy, up a few days later, the price has dropped down, almost fell to the cost of your area, then this time you though still profitable, but still out as good. Because the wave really began to rally, it will not fall back up starting point. Need to stop every time, because people are always difficult to identify weaknesses of human nature lose, forget trading system, thought only trading results. For example, hold the loss of hope, hope to win the game, the results of the greed that we have extended losses. To overcome this, in fact, stop-loss or profit should not be Kuisun as the basis, but something like the "ghost of the gift," said, when the market did not prove you are right, when to withdraw from the transaction. To do this must, like their predecessors the book said, when you're involved in a transaction, for the near future to have a clear vision, rather than just looking at this step. In addition, the futures market is constantly changing, we must have enough time and energy to read the tape to ensure constant monitoring of risk. Many companies now set up an automatic stop-loss futures profit only a single function, this function to a lot of friends to bring comfort and hope. They think that this function can avoid the pain of when to sell. But do not forget that the practice is harmful to the novice, it will slowly take away your flexibility, some experts have suggested that we: the best learn to make their own decisions and not rely on any automatic stop-loss system. Depend on your ability to make tough decisions, and the carrying out in the end. Someday, you will find that through constant practice, you become strong. 2, the matter of control. A matter of control includes the implementation of stop loss and take profit. Implementation of stop loss and profit when the U.S. futures expert Thomas A ¡¤ º£¶ûÄÎÄªË¹ in the "Futures of Economics," a book is a comprehensive summary: a, when the time is running out: Prices expected to have a time line, if the price still can not be changed by then, it would not be changed. Such as: season is over, the contractual maturity or the lack of any other things, have to liquidate positions to end the transaction; b, when the initial expectations have been achieved and the expectations of the assessment indicates that there is no reason to change expectations, sometimes things really are running according to plan; When the evaluation and adjustment of expected that the ratio of potential gains and losses to unacceptable levels; d, when the remaining funds to reduce over-time. Loss of position at times become very large, resulting in greatly reduced the disproportionate funding account, the time, regardless of how the expected results, trading plans are called for to close out some or all positions; e, when the transaction appears more attractive. 3, after the control. After the control including a summary of experiences, lessons learned. After each transaction, trading profit or loss when the results of both, must be compiled and analyzed throughout the process. Profitable trades can do better? What is the reason for the trading losses? Accumulated valuable lessons that do not? How to improve trading skills? Under such circumstances, when one day you realize that the success of the transaction is not a loss or profit in a result, but rather whether the risk under control, then the transaction from the amateur to the professional. (B) of the fund management Risk of market trading in winning or losing is standard issue. Wynn to become a successful futures traders, at any stage of life is more important than making money. And survival is the key to effective financial management control. Fund management is the allocation of funds, namely to seek in different markets, different price segments (gains, losses or consolidation of a price segment), to better plan, use, control of funds, to avoid The purpose of risk to obtain benefits. Effective financial management and account number on the money does not matter, does not mean less money for less use, the more open and more funds, funds management should be measured as a percentage of its own funds. It requires the operator to exhaustion at any time the situation will not arise, at any time to ensure that trading can continue the next day. Specifically include the following: 1, but the degree of trading. The transaction is not over-use of weekly, monthly or annual amount or volume of transactions to measure; but not delusional in every market changes, just be careful to choose their own method of opportunities to participate; 2, do not make up for previous losses to the position of doing too desperate. Because the transaction most likely to lead to retaliatory failure; 3, the risk of each transaction are controlled within 1% of the total funds --- 2% or less; 4, and never on the loss of head positions overweight; continuous or continuous loss of profits several times, select exit to fix mentality. Especially when the loss occurred, by stopping the transaction, and calmly analyze what went wrong, and so restore the confidence and the market for further research before you start trading; 5, the patient should be given positions on the profits allowed to continue to grow; 6, not the funds are allocated in the property-related varieties. ?
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