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Digest

VIEWS: 20 PAGES: 14

									Digest
Successful, the majority of people are attractive, is dream of every
trader and headed. The success is broadly based on the useful
experience gained from a life in the way of life. It is the successful
result of a long self-improvement; is successful after the failure of
short-term results obtained with the setbacks; is successful growing,
learning, and self-improvement process. The success of futures trading
is the trading year, the trading profits were to stabilize the capital
to growth, personal enrichment happy transaction. However, the futures
margin system, contingency and one-sidedness in order to avoid
misleading, industry professionals, the content of the specific
requirements of this definition into four aspects: First, capital
account of the curve of the year to maintain a steady increase in the
state, in which losses can not exceed the month 2-3 months; second
curve capital account fell from a high point can not be any more than
30%; third is 100 times the number of transactions have a transaction
in order to have statistical significance; Fourth, in the transaction
process, with the principle point of view specifically, whether profit
or loss, state of mind can maintain peace and stability, and from
feeling full and happy. For any of the traders, in order to achieve
this state, must be four conditions (indispensable): accurate
analysis, the right trading strategy and strict self-discipline,
scientific money management.
First, the accurate analysis
Futures market is always in equilibrium with imbalance of the two
forms of conversion, the role of the external and internal factors,
the market shifted from the equilibrium of balance, then move to a new
equilibrium state of imbalance. Therefore, any one transaction, as
long as want to do transactions, in order to profit, must be on the
current situation and future market trends and analysis to make
judgments, and in the analysis to address the variety of price
movement in the direction, operation rate and operation time, these
three issues. This is the first condition for successful transactions.
How to conduct market analysis, traders have certain knowledge, based
on the assumption based on the full step by step interpretation of the
principles and conditions, the use of dialectical materialism, the
view that a comprehensive, development, and movement of ideas, through
fundamental analysis, technical analysis and psychological analysis
for the general public.
Fundamental analysis is based on the expected production of goods,
inventory, demand is expected to analyze the price trends. It has two
characteristics: First, long-term trend of price movements; the second
is that the nature of price changes, macro. Through fundamental
analysis to determine the current price of a commodity price is
reasonable and to describe its long-term development, so that we can
understand should be long or short term which varieties. Most traders
in view of R & D capability, knowledge, statistical capacity is
limited, in view of the futures market is more a band market,
fundamental analysis is very difficult to grasp in the transaction and
widespread use, and most traders are concerned about the daily news or
is not a fundamental analysis of various rumors, so it can not as a
transaction basis.
Technical analysis is based on past and present stock market behavior
is analyzed, and applied mathematics and logical way to explore some
typical changes in law, and to predict future changes in market trends
in technology and methods. It has three characteristics: First, the
price per unit time by the change showed fluctuation and transition;
second, chasing trends, rather than create or boot trend; third is a
true record of the historical trajectory. Through technical analysis,
mainly to solve the following problems:
1, that trend
In the futures market, the profit model has four. The average profit
rate as low odds model, the average profit rate of low-odds model, the
average profit rate of high-odds model, the average profit rate of
high odds model. In these four profit model, and trends associated
with, the flow rate of the low chance of winning the average profit
model is to ensure stable profits, the best mode of long-term
profitability. So, that trend, following the trend of trading a top
priority.
Identification of trends in many, many, such as price patterns, moving
average systems, trend lines, technical indicators, and so the Dow
Theory. However, note that some of these indicators are more or less
defects, so trends should be noted that four issues deal: First, only
after the trend is always easy to see, for the time, trends can form,
how long it can run difficult to know, can only make probability
judgments based on experience; second line of the phenomenon of
cheating is inevitable, and have occurred, all the signals as a basis
for action become clear until very late, so we must be able to
continue based on successful trading profit or to obtain huge profits
to compensate for these shortcomings may result in the loss, not
because the cheat line to lose patience and confidence of trends;
third is to be able to distinguish between the common trend of minor
adjustments and turn around new trends in the first reversal a charge;
fourth trend traders trading on the quality and strength of traders
demanding money to be able to endure the loss of out time and time
again, and still have the strength to wait. Grasp the principle on
whether the assessment of trends, consider the following issues: the
historical trend of the market like? Is how to go today? How will that
trend? Trend is currently in early, mid or late? What are the criteria
the stock market? Delisting criteria? Do you want to participate in
adjustment? How to determine the trend end?
2, the assessment of the atmosphere. Assess the general atmosphere and
the potential market direction is the first step transaction, which is
used to Mozhun market trends, to determine the accuracy of the timing
involved, the decision is in a favorable position in the environment.
Assessment includes: the current market environment in China? Take the
initiative is multi-market or short side? How they are involved in?
Direction in the original run on you? The intensity of how to run?
3, find support and resistance. Start up or down when the price, how
much space to run, depends largely on the support and resistance, a
position also in the best position near the pressure or support, so
look for support and resistance analysis is very important. Pressure,
support usually refers to the trend of the previous high or low, a
clear trend line, channel, moving average, price integer, form the
boundary line of the gap in the neckline, percentage retracement or
intensive trading range and so on. Long or short the best time to
intervene is not easy to be broken near the support or resistance, if
the judge is correct, the breakdown of these positions, it will lead
to a large number of follow suit and stop-plate, having a considerable
profit; if an error of judgment losses will not be great.
4, observing market developments
Based on price patterns, moving average systems and trend indicators
to understand the market developing? Whether the anticipated trend?
Trend is stronger than expected, or weaker than expected? Running time
is reasonable? Their own trading strategy adopted is correct?
Mass psychological approach is mainly the emergence of mass hysteria
and consequences of behavior analysis. Is from the "market
psychology to the price" of ideas. Which is defined in the
direction of the market is about to reverse or maintain the original
direction of the critical point, the market-led forces to control by
those who speculated that the psychological price positioning as a
basis to analyze the flow of funds led (capital flows) in order to
determine future market direction methods. Such as "smart swing
trading," a book put it, stabilize earnings from the road can not
inquire into too much insider information and a wealth of knowledge,
but from the understanding of human behavior and how human behavior
into the market understanding of behavior. Behavior of the market in
the public research base with the three variables, namely, price
changes, volume changes and changes in positions. Price change, both
long and short description of what directly what the weak strong
contrast features; volume represents the liquidity, it is the price
change, reflecting the activities of traders, to a certain extent
determines the price and the trend after . Positions through the
increase or decrease to reflect the long and short sides stationed
outside and inside incremental funding precipitate withdrawal of funds
compared open posture; the level of open interest on behalf of the
market efficiency or liquidity, it is a measure of the market the
current trading price of the ability to attract new; in the high level
of open interest below the market very liquid. For example, in the
futures market, trading a lot of variety, although its own trading
capital is to choose a variety of conditions of trading, but the
choice of species is more important is when the liquidity and
volatility of choice varieties, which requires the observation
positions. So far since last fall, corn (information, quotes) and the
wheat market has not reason, is because the positions are too small
reason.
Second, the right trading strategy
How to better apply the analysis to the actual operation depends on
the correct trading strategy. Note that, in the trading decision, the
decision itself does not act out of the city called the strategy,
policy should be to support it, the specific trading scheme or design,
it is an overall, long-term and fundamental colors. Trading strategies
could include individual or specific trading money management, trading
the opportunity to choose, losses and profits of an arrangement and
plans; also contains technology-related transactions and transactions
associated with the overall approach, the trader behavior and the
process approach and other specific technical content. But the content
should have a certain system features, a thorough, integrity and a
certain professional standard. In the specific transaction, trading
strategy is divided into two aspects, one is run according to market
strategies developed by the way, that momentum trading strategy and
the contrarian trading strategy; one is established under the trading
hours of the trading strategy, that intraday strategy, short-term
trading strategies, swing trading strategies, trend trading strategy.
(A) of the momentum trading strategies and contrarian trading
strategies
There are two ways to run the market, a single up or down along the
direction of operation; one is the upper and lower horizontal run not
by much. According to this two different operation modes, we will be
divided into momentum trading trading strategy trading strategies and
contrarian strategies. Trading strategies in the use of homeopathy,
you need to understand is: For the new information, traders Bingbu
make immediate response, but rather a period of time the message
Xiaohua. In the face of the situation requires careful consideration,
the transaction may be performed too cautious, often hesitation,
inaction. Trader's personality, the amount of information they
receive, their attitude and their respective types of investors will
affect the length of delay, a phenomenon which implies a trading
opportunity. Momentum trading strategy is the trend of the scope and
trends at the beginning of the process moving. Using this strategy
requires that we first measure the public's views, has been launched
in the market, but people were cautious and hesitant on the
information, the time to get into, and continue the process of
development in the trend of overweight, which follow the market
operation. The use of contrarian trading strategy, you need to
understand is: If people hold certain views, and everyone to take
action based on that view, the market had no funds to continue to push
prices towards the original direction. The scope of contrarian trading
strategy is the trend at the end. This strategy requires us to measure
public opinion, when they view the situation to an unreasonable
extreme, they do the opposite.
It has been concluded that by the statistics: The band-type operating
profit advantage of the opportunity is greater than 75% of the
surface, while the single point of technical analysis from the top and
bottom grab the probability is less than 1%. Therefore, for these two
strategies, market trends relative contrarian trading more easy to
grasp, but the success rate of operation is much higher than the
contrarian.
(B) different times of the trading strategies
In the market, there are days the trend Xingqing, and the trend band
Xing Xing Qing Xing Qing, in each transaction, be sure to understand
their participation is to be kind of Xingqing, because different the
market, not the same evaluation methods, expectations are different.
For the days of operation, the most important thing is to determine
the date of the potential market power and the potential buyer power
and sell power to seize the market psychology as early as possible in
order to maintain consistency with the trend of the day, and prices
have more than or close to it every changes in the normal range of day
when, immediately collect profits. In this process, the reaction is
more important than analysis. For band operation, the most important
thing is the adjustment in the trend at the end of intervention in the
trading process does not accept the adjustment, found that the kinetic
energy prices rise or fall when less immediately exit positions. The
trend of operation, consists of two processes, the trend started at
the beginning of storage, look for the trend adjustment to the end
point jiacang. In trading, many traders because it did not understand
the reason, why they frequently injured. For example, many traders are
now in a variety of external factors and their influence factors, are
both committed to this year's wave of commodity markets will be an
upward trend, but the trend of the future what form of development,
their psychological quality, operation, etc. What will happen to the
changes forward or reverse without serious consideration. Some traders
would have a substantial profit, because they can not understand the
situation just in time to win makes a substantial profit-taking, but
also the trend of the market outlook was the confusion, fear flies
every day, so their positions are often flat in the the lowest point
of the day. However, some traders not only in the current market
correction does not make money, that is, trends in March the band did
not make money in the market, all a chase sell.
(C) has a trading system
Trading system is a complete trading system. A well-designed trading
system is built on the basis of practice, which requires all relevant
aspects of investment decisions made by the corresponding specific
provisions, such provisions must be objective, the only, does not
allow different interpretations of any . It also must meet the user's
psychological characteristics, the statistical characteristics of
investments and risk characteristics of investment funds. A complete
trading system should include these aspects: the choice of transaction
types, using methods which confirm the timing of market transactions,
the specific price range and how to implement the deal, how much
money, how to determine the trend of the stock market after the normal
and No, what kind of situation occurs stop or just win out, unexpected
incidents on the preventive measures are, how to handle their own
misdeeds, the system fails, how to do so. To be able to play a role in
trading systems, users must do the following:
1, must understand their own system: the system must be out of their
own development, so as to understand the significance of each link, we
can easily withstand the inevitable failure, great achievements will
not be carried away;
2, must trust their own system: according to their own learning and
trading experience, historical data according to their own tests, I
will understand traders feasibility of the system conditions and
success probability, this will give traders a strong self-confidence
and courage Whether the future is to continue or closing a trade would
be a natural behavior;
3, must follow its own system: as long as continue to follow it, and
slowly traders will find the good and bad trading losses and not
profit, but no one is controlling risk. To this day you will also find
trade is not very hard. If, with the growth of experience and new
knowledge, to change the trading system, such changes must be in a
position not only can make the case;
4, must be alert to their own system: the results of the trading
system used, the more good, more users to remain vigilant. Therefore,
just as Carl said: "We in the field of knowledge, any gains made
in the existing theory from the challenge, not maintenance."
But also to overcome the following obstacles:
1, each system, each way, each trader has a loss of time, while the
loss is the biggest obstacle to follow the system. If you can not
endure the inevitable series of transactions losses, then the system
will be constantly changing, so give a good trading system;
2, no one can tell the system whether the future will be profitable;
3, the system will make a profit not a profit is often the system
looks like;
4, the transaction is subject to the same emotions and follow the test
system;
5, can not always think of changing it, in any case we like to trade
for does not exist.
Third, the strict self-discipline
As the saying goes, "No rules, no standards." Uncertainty of
transactions in the world, more self-discipline is very important.
Despite a variety of self-regulation is likely to make you deviate
from the correct path of temptation, but the ability to control their
behavior. In the trading world, self-discipline is the development and
the ability to follow the trading scheme is to predict when your plan
will not work and is no longer in its failure to follow its capacity.
Its performance is, or as you amass wealth, or make you Diukuixiejia;
loss, you can Dousoujingshen unwilling to return once again failed
transaction positions; can be free from external information and has
nothing to do with your system, the signal interference ; do not chase
too much trading volume, trading can be a reasonable size if the
security of Thailand; consistently adhere to their own trading system,
improve the trading day, the system continuously; either elated to win
the day before, or lost in a mess, will appear in the trading field
and so on. Visible, self-discipline and strive to achieve its
objectives the commitment, motivation and spontaneity. But the self is
not born with a quality, it depends on nurture. Each has extensive
transaction experience that friends are more or less have the same
experience, and often made some very stupid mistakes, and after that
to think of it can not forgive myself. Such as fear, because fear can
not be very realistic assessment of the facts in front, but with all
your heart to focus on the dangerous side, resulting in the following
pitfalls: long after the price dropped to sell; miss the best buy;
sell too early and so on. This is the "Decade of a dream,"
puts it: knowing that I can not. Therefore, we can not assume that
they have a successful trader with self-discipline, in fact we are
much poorer for it. Recalling the past, many predecessors, and their
defeat was not because of lack of method, nor is the lack of skills,
because a lack of self-discipline. So, how to be strict
self-discipline it? Only one answer, that is based on the experience
of others or their own, develop and comply with trading rules. Gann's
trading rules such as: Every time the stock market trading, trading
losses should not exceed one-tenth of the capital; always set a stop
loss position; never excessive trading; never let the position taken
profit into loss; not buck the trend to; there is doubt that the open
dispersal; only in the active market; never limit access to City,
trading in the market; if no proper justification, do not open the
position taken, can only make a bit Security Income profit; Lien Chan
in the market, both wins, you can extract some of the profits to be
the time of emergency preparedness; buy stocks should not only hope to
earn interest; trading losses trick, should not overweight; Do not be
impatient and the market, nor because impatience in the open; willing
to lose would not win, cut ring; the stock market falling when the
stop order, not arbitrarily canceled; make more mistakes, the stock
market to wait for an opportunity, not speculation too close;
investigation put it well, do not should only unilateral; Do not price
too low to absorb, because the price is too high and do not short;
avoid pyramid at an inappropriate time coded; if no proper
justification, change the position taken to avoid the random trading
strategy. Seemingly simple rules, but think about it, or the frequent
loss of those important not because of violation of the principle of
loss caused, so to develop and implement rules for how important it
is.
Fourth, the scientific management
(A) Risk Management
Futures full of uncertainty, no matter how much knowledge and
experience with, no matter how sure the hearts of the total, or an
accident occurs, there are risks associated. Therefore, each
transaction must consider not only how many are willing to take risks,
but also consider how much risk to take; and risk management and
control is not only throughout the entire transaction process, it is
in every transaction of risk before assessment and prevention. Under
the deal process, risk management and control divided into three
parts: pre-control, things in control, after control.
1, the prior control. Prior control, including position control and
preset stop loss, profit. For novice traders, because of professional
knowledge and trading experience at a disadvantage, in order to study
with the minimum cost method to verify the transaction, to accumulate
trading experience, it's best to open hand each transaction list,
jiacang only Add hand. For experienced traders, but also remember the
stop-loss insurance is not universal, in the large market volatility
when the stop is no good, because the market directly open circuit
breakers, so every opening must control within reasonable limits, do
not ever forget to give yourself leeway. For example if it is to do
more, then the left margin at least able to cope with your daily limit
with the three varieties. In addition, in order to prevent errors and
to determine the future protection of profits, each transaction must
be set to stop only win. However, the right to adjust the stop price
solution to this problem might be to design a successful system, the
most difficult part. I remember someone once described: the stop price
set is a most subtle and perfect the art of effective trend is the key
to the transaction. Stop price or too tight, the price of falling as
frequently small technical swing, you are constantly being cut out of
the market; or too loose, will you take a huge, can not prevent the
loss of, or retrograde in the market, it will Most of book profits
back to the market. It can be said that the level of individuals is
closely related to the operation, the higher the level, stop location
is also more comfortable. In order to better set the stop-loss, we
must first understand that in order to immediately stop set stop
losses, rather than trying to reduce losses. So when the stop occurs,
it must first leave the market, not the bargain, as touched the stop,
has indicated that misjudgment, which lost its bargaining rights. But
truth is easier said than done. Stop the one hand, we need to have a
solid foundation of technical analysis theory and rich experience in
spot trading; the other hand, we need to stop trading with superb
skill; then we need to stop the one hand, have a good mental
qualities. The ability of these three persons for each transaction,
there is no learning for several years, not thousands of real trading
experience, there is no strong execution, can not have. In practice, I
often see some friends in the amount of funds set up stop loss; some
of the time as a stop. In fact, this approach is one-sided, with a
stop more than just the premise of whether there is a loss, but to
correct the error as a precondition, that does not appear if you
expect the market trend, or did you have no basis to judge at this
time whether it is profit or loss, you must first withdraw. For
example: a long-term consolidation of a variety of forms from the
break to do more you buy, up a few days later, the price has dropped
down, almost fell to the cost of your area, then this time you though
still profitable, but still out as good. Because the wave really began
to rally, it will not fall back up starting point.
Need to stop every time, because people are always difficult to
identify weaknesses of human nature lose, forget trading system,
thought only trading results. For example, hold the loss of hope, hope
to win the game, the results of the greed that we have extended
losses. To overcome this, in fact, stop-loss or profit should not be
Kuisun as the basis, but something like the "ghost of the
gift," said, when the market did not prove you are right, when to
withdraw from the transaction. To do this must, like their
predecessors the book said, when you're involved in a transaction, for
the near future to have a clear vision, rather than just looking at
this step.
In addition, the futures market is constantly changing, we must have
enough time and energy to read the tape to ensure constant monitoring
of risk. Many companies now set up an automatic stop-loss futures
profit only a single function, this function to a lot of friends to
bring comfort and hope. They think that this function can avoid the
pain of when to sell. But do not forget that the practice is harmful
to the novice, it will slowly take away your flexibility, some experts
have suggested that we: the best learn to make their own decisions and
not rely on any automatic stop-loss system. Depend on your ability to
make tough decisions, and the carrying out in the end. Someday, you
will find that through constant practice, you become strong.
2, the matter of control. A matter of control includes the
implementation of stop loss and take profit. Implementation of stop
loss and profit when the U.S. futures expert Thomas A ¡¤ º£¶ûÄÎĪ˹ in the
"Futures of Economics," a book is a comprehensive summary:
a, when the time is running out: Prices expected to have a time line,
if the price still can not be changed by then, it would not be
changed. Such as: season is over, the contractual maturity or the lack
of any other things, have to liquidate positions to end the
transaction;
b, when the initial expectations have been achieved and the
expectations of the assessment indicates that there is no reason to
change expectations, sometimes things really are running according to
plan;
When the evaluation and adjustment of expected that the ratio of
potential gains and losses to unacceptable levels;
d, when the remaining funds to reduce over-time. Loss of position at
times become very large, resulting in greatly reduced the
disproportionate funding account, the time, regardless of how the
expected results, trading plans are called for to close out some or
all positions;
e, when the transaction appears more attractive.
3, after the control. After the control including a summary of
experiences, lessons learned. After each transaction, trading profit
or loss when the results of both, must be compiled and analyzed
throughout the process. Profitable trades can do better? What is the
reason for the trading losses? Accumulated valuable lessons that do
not? How to improve trading skills? Under such circumstances, when one
day you realize that the success of the transaction is not a loss or
profit in a result, but rather whether the risk under control, then
the transaction from the amateur to the professional.
(B) of the fund management
Risk of market trading in winning or losing is standard issue. Wynn to
become a successful futures traders, at any stage of life is more
important than making money. And survival is the key to effective
financial management control. Fund management is the allocation of
funds, namely to seek in different markets, different price segments
(gains, losses or consolidation of a price segment), to better plan,
use, control of funds, to avoid The purpose of risk to obtain
benefits. Effective financial management and account number on the
money does not matter, does not mean less money for less use, the more
open and more funds, funds management should be measured as a
percentage of its own funds. It requires the operator to exhaustion at
any time the situation will not arise, at any time to ensure that
trading can continue the next day. Specifically include the following:
1, but the degree of trading. The transaction is not over-use of
weekly, monthly or annual amount or volume of transactions to measure;
but not delusional in every market changes, just be careful to choose
their own method of opportunities to participate;
2, do not make up for previous losses to the position of doing too
desperate. Because the transaction most likely to lead to retaliatory
failure;
3, the risk of each transaction are controlled within 1% of the total
funds --- 2% or less;
4, and never on the loss of head positions overweight; continuous or
continuous loss of profits several times, select exit to fix
mentality. Especially when the loss occurred, by stopping the
transaction, and calmly analyze what went wrong, and so restore the
confidence and the market for further research before you start
trading;
5, the patient should be given positions on the profits allowed to
continue to grow;
6, not the funds are allocated in the property-related varieties.
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