Cao Ren Chao by fdjerue7eeu

VIEWS: 22 PAGES: 7

									Cao Ren Chao
RMB appreciation next quarter, the fastest

Cao Ren Chao
March 14, Sunday. October 30, 2007 HSI opinions 31,958 points, 27
October 2008 low as 10,676 points, November 18, 2009 Hang Seng Index,
see 23099 points go from here? CRB Commodity Index 3 July 2008
opinions 473.97,09 low on March 11, see 203.46,2010 become
increasingly 293.75 on January 6 and then go from here? Oil prices
July 11, 2008 an increasing $ 147.27 a barrel, the same year, an
increasing $ 32.4 December 19 a barrel, 83 dollars a barrel after
recent see how? Stock, commodity and oil prices have been both highs
and lows there, and even rebound has been completed, then what? These
are the most difficult question to answer in 2010.
Niuerzhuangzheng States delisting
Looking back since March 2000, ten years later, the Dow is only down
on the last; look back to August 1997 has, over the past ten years, a
large blue-chip stock prices in Hong Kong is on the same yo; look back
at 1990 to date, two Ten years on, the Nikkei average, how?
Traditional so-called 'Buy & Hold' theory has no market, investors
find that once the tree fall, do not have a market not affected. As
for the second A bull market is estimated as I Laocao March of this
year or the second quarter? Most of the bull market a lack of
confidence in the rising bull market two governments have to face
delisting. A to the October 2007 stock market has been five times book
value, in November 2008 dropped to six times the book value of the one
o'clock, two o'clock is now carrying twice (2000-present double the
average of two o'clock), that stock market becoming normal. Stock like
fifteen buckets, how picking the most important.
Consumption accounting for 1980 GDP 50.8%, only 35.3% in 2008; to
invest 44% in 2008. Over the past three decades of reform and opening
up policy, there are too many investment and consumption is
insufficient, and from 1950 to 1980 in Japan similar. If allowed to
continue the trend, there will be similar to the Japanese asset bubble
of the 1980s, and then burst ... .... The so-called former example,
the central government has changed the direction of domestic demand
and economic development. 1980-1990 GDP, China's consumption fell to
48.8% from the 50.8%, from 1991 to 2000 is still only down 46.4%, I
can say that only appeared invested too much in the past decade,
inadequate consumption, on the ground that in 1995 After this reform,
property prices, education costs, medical costs rise, among other
factors, so that the new income people save it up for a rainy day,
resulting in consumption has not increased. Unbalanced development of
urban and rural areas in 1990, urban per capita income is 200% in
rural areas, the gap widened in 2009 to 300%, with the lowest income
in China over the past decade 20% of the population increase of only
8.7% of annual income, while high-income 20 % of the population
increase of 17.1% of annual income; 20% of the highest income in 2000
was the lowest 20% of the population income income income population,
4.99 times in 2008, with the difference of nine one double (Hong Kong
even worse, to twenty- times). Widening gap between urban and rural,
rich and poor, resulting in some Chinese high on the hog, but a large
number of people living below the poverty line the edge of the
injustice.
China's economy last year, complete V-shaped rebound, but the United
States, Europe and Japan, and how? Will there be W-shaped trend?
China's GDP growth rate estimated at 8.6% this year, other countries?
Rebalancing in the global economy under the slogan shouting, China's
exports face growing protectionist pressures, the pressure of RMB
appreciation is also the face of growing domestic demand in China is
entering the economy. Over the past three decades, the Hong Kong
economy in the domestic inflation and deflation again quickly the next
turn, the number of listed companies were out of the market? The
number of large enterprises is no longer the Hang Seng Index
constituent stocks?
February of this year, many cities in China announced the promotion of
the minimum wage 12% (for the November 17, 2008 has been another),
would help to narrow the wealth gap, but also help China to shift from
labor intensive manufacturing high tech, from the large consumption of
energy and resource-based, turn environmentally friendly. On the other
hand, China's economy shifted from manufacturing-based
service-oriented, it is estimated CPI another peak in July or August
of this year, I am afraid prices of raw materials will enter the
second half of this year down period, so once again I Laocao Reduction
of resource stocks suggest that you share the same energy. The maximum
possible appreciation of the RMB in the second quarter of this year,
to curb CPI rise in the third quarter. Economic restructuring, auto
stocks, sports apparel stocks, supermarkets, consumer goods,
insurance, banking, health care, the housing stock h ave to be
optimistic in the ranks. Bearish on the energy sector, resource
stocks, chemical stocks and even telecoms. As for the road stock,
railway stocks, infrastructure stocks believed to be neutral. Export
shares recover with the concept of shipping stocks is speculation,
short-term still bullish, medium and long term is bearish. Members may
draw reference from 1982 to 2007 in Hong Kong's economic development.
Dahon become optimistic about the domestic housing stock
Twenty analysts Bloomberg survey to an estimated RMB to 31 March 2011
only 5% would rise to 6.5 against the $ 1 (I Laocao estimated increase
of less). Robeco Hong Kong (management of 194 billion U.S. dollars) in
Victoria Meo that the housing stock has been adjusted in August last
year, has come to a reasonable level; others such as Credit Suisse,
UBS, Merrill Lynch, JP Morgan Chase and other domestic housing stock
has become more optimistic, do not agree with 'bubble', but despite
this, but the housing stock is still up to twenty times the average
price-earnings ratio, still less attractive. BGF (BlackRock Inc)
Analyst Bob Doll to light within the room shares the Air, that Wen's
speech on behalf of the Central will continue to suppress the mainland
real estate. China real estate index down 10% the first two months of
this year, the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period fell
7.5%.
August 1971 after the U.S. dollar is no longer linked with the gold,
rapidly changing global economy. For example, the gold bear market
began in 1980, up to two years, until 1999 end. Average residential
property prices in Hong Kong in the second quarter of 1997 can also
appear in the bear market for seven years to recover until the second
half of 2003 increased (but has not yet ³¬¹ý August 1997 level.) Since
bubble burst in 2000, is still without a rebound increase. October
2007 sub-prime crisis, the global major banks shares fell to a mess
... ... the world changes faster than that advocated 'Buy & Hold'
followers can not keep up the value of investment law; the other hand,
popular trends in investment law.
1966-1982 U.S. stock market without attracting the Hong Kong stock
from 1967 to 1981, rising by up to twenty-seven times. 1997-2003
little change in U.S. stocks rise or rise and fall, property prices
have increased every year; big on the Hong Kong stock market
fluctuations during this period, the Hong Kong property prices in the
past seven years will be very miserable.
Many people worship Buffett's 'value approach'. In fact, the time when
the real value there, most people turn a blind eye, for example, in
1982 the Sino-British negotiations, who wants to buy property in Hong
Kong? January 2000, how many people believe that the future price of
gold soared to three times? H shares listed in Hong Kong Shiyou who
initially optimistic about? The first quarter of last year, the
mainland A shares who is optimistic about the property with the
mainland? On the contrary, at the wrong time entrants are more
numerous, for example, is the third quarter of 1997, most people buy
property in Hong Kong the day; in October 2007 under the rumors in the
through train, causing a lot of money into the market to buy Hong Kong
stocks. I Laocao not value investing is not to say, but most people
have not the wisdom of Buffett. Remember 'dance till the music stops',
ie do not guess the top, do not buy the dips, when the trend formed by
adding the trend at the end of exit. As Tai Chi Chuan in the 'push
hands' (the flow lines), that is easy is not easy, that is hard. No
one can enter the market at the lowest price, no one can be at the
highest price from the city. Please learn news dances, the music stops
they return to their seats. 2010, not 2009 encore (end of the concert
plus the show), but do not allow history to repeat itself in 2008.
Possible in 2010 is the last stock market yo, no directional wind
blowing. Usually after a big bubble has a small bubble appear. 2009 is
Echo Bubble?
The last time Europe off the gold standard in 1914, led to a U.S. real
estate speculation and the Wall Street crisis of 1929, and then the
Great Depression in 30 years, until the end of World War II, the U.S.
economy before big boom. The abolition of the gold standard in 1971,
the United States (20th century financial center has been moved to the
United States), has triggered a global wave of real estate speculation
and the October 2007 U.S. stock market frenzy. 30's style depression
that does not appear, but the Japanese over the past two decades, the
recession probably started in the United States. Without China, India
and other factors, I believe that global deflation in July 2008 has
started (when CRB index, see 473 points); in China, India and other
emerging industrial countries, demand stimulation, only that commodity
prices since last February 24 from the rebound January 6 this year, is
only a mid-term adjustment? Do not know. Some people think that the
United States after the introduction of quantitative easing could
escape the 30's style deflation, but the situation in Japan over the
past two decades, it proves that the method can not.
Raw material prices will fall this year
Commodity index peaked in August 2008 and has fallen sharply since
February last year, the driving force is increased 4 trillion yuan
economic stimulus package; China has become the world's largest
importer of raw materials! Baltic Dry Index cargo this year, for
several weeks down, otherwise the Chinese container freight index has
increased by 12%, on behalf of the Chinese exports on the rise, but
Yuan Cailiao entry may reduce the (entry last year, too.) This year in
January compared with China's steel exports to Europe rose 50% last
December, becoming the largest source of iron and steel imported in
Europe (16% of the total import volume), it is worrying that bargain
last year a large number of imported goods for this year's export
income. If the above analysis is correct, this year will enter the
fall of prices of raw materials.
"Financial Times" article pointed out that the March 7, up
to three years 'gilts' bull market close to the edge of death. To
December 2008 only in the past four decades, the average annual global
bond index rose 4.89%, OECD countries, the average annual stock market
index rose 4.02%, ie from 1969 to 2008 outperformed bonds during the
period driven a stock selection, but since 2009 the situation
reversed, the global economy is the care of low interest rates to high
interest rates of the above far-reaching changes.
Greece, the euro zone economy represents only 2.7% GDP, why there is
such a large decline in the euro? Reason is that investors worry that
share a common lot, because the economic situation in other countries,
not more. Greece, a total of 350 billion euros debt, such as the
inability to perform the contract, can lead to sovereign debt crises.
Greece's problems with Japan, close to the birth rate is too low, only
1.3, the results of ten grandparents only six children, four
grandchildren into the shrinking population of the country, together
with Greece, the average retirement age is fifty-eight years old ...
... . The problem is how to support the six parents of four
grandchildren, ten grandparents?
Today most people have only one child families, such as the new
arrivals did not have children, Hong Kong had become 'old port' carry
on. However, if people have came to the mainland children of Hong
Kong, Hong Kong, how to cope? Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal ruled in
2001: July 1, 1997 after the children born in the Mainland to Hong
Kong must wait; the other hand, the Mainland children born in Hong
Kong may be 'people' status. Year (2001) Mainland children born in
Hong Kong, six hundred twenty people, with the entry into force of the
law and the free exercise began in 2003, more than twenty-five
thousand in 2008, and last year nearly twenty-nine thousand people; in
the past still Shenzhen, Guangdong Province-based, has been all over
the country, estimates continue to rise, has resulted in a large
business in Hong Kong hospitals Wang. Mainland parents present the
number of people born in Hong Kong has more than one hundred and
eighty thousand, mostly in old or below, many of them who live in
Shenzhen to Hong Kong every day going to school (because Hong Kong
offers in free primary education). As the Mainland's one child policy,
that the right of the second child not in school, the number has more
than sixty thousand. Mainland parents to prevent children born in Hong
Kong, the Hospital Authority has announced that from October last
year, all public hospitals do not accept the applications, that is,
those children born to Hong Kong private hospitals only to find the
next delivery, cost 1.5 million or more.
Mainland social problems of children born in Hong Kong
Outside the mainland in recent years, parents from Guangdong Province
to Hong Kong a proliferation of birth, these children should not come
to Hong Kong school, but can grow up to work in Hong Kong, and even
apply for public housing and CSSA, but may never return Hong Kong. Ten
years later, these 'Kong' children grown up, how to deal with the Hong
Kong Government? Will become another social problem.
The level of education, nothing to do with investment success. Many a
professor of economics may be less than the investment results of a
primary level investors on the grounds that he 'know' too much. I do
not Laocao investment performance and in June 2003 before the death of
the mother. My mother started buying stocks in early 1975, her style
is always to buy not only sell each stock market crash put her hands
full of cash to buy stocks, for example, the end of 1982, June 1989,
9, 1998 month ... .... The results beat the investment return of her
son (a self-professed investment professionals). This shows that too
much knowledge is not necessarily a good thing. Better place than the
retail institutional investors is that they know more, but in the
stock market, knowledge does not mean a lot more outstanding
performance in many cases but Leishi. Reason is that too much
knowledge can easily lead to preference (predisposed), because of
preference will have blind spots and emotional investment. For
example, in 2000, it is difficult to persuade the investment community
elites believe that the gold bull market has begun; October 2007 has
not told them before the financial crisis that has occurred. The
so-called 'wise man is never out, there must be a fool to consider
both gains thousands', you still remember Greenspan in December 1996
that U.S. stocks irrational excitement into it? But from 1997 to 1999
increase in U.S. stocks are up 27.6% annually! ¡ö
This paper from Hong Kong, "Economic Journal" financial news
provider, to facilitate the Mandarin readers, with slight changes.
"Sir Cao think tank" and "Sir Cao Verse", please
click http://www.hkej.com/template/cho/jsp/cho_main.jsp

								
To top