Offshore Wind: East of England
European Offshore Wind Conference & Exhibition 2007, 5 December 2007
John Westwood
Managing Director, Douglas-Westwood Ltd
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Introduction
East of England The Global Market Conclusions
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Introduction
• DWL are authors of the East
of England Regional Study and the Transnational Supply Chain Study for the POWER Project • Update on the market status in each POWER region • Industry issues and market forecasts • Updated version published June 2007 • Download from www.offshore-power.net
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Introduction
Today’s Presentation: • An overview of the East of England region • Project progress • Regional supply chain status • Douglas-Westwood global market forecasts from the new edition of ‘The World Offshore Wind Report 2008-2012’
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Introduction
East of England The Global Market Conclusions
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East of England
• East of England (EoE) is one of •
9 UK Regions The EoE is ideally located between two of UK’s strategic development areas: Thames Estuary and Greater Wash Completed projects: Scroby Sands (60 MW), Kentish Flats (90 MW) Under construction: Lynn and Inner Dowsing (194 MW) Upcoming projects include Gunfleet Sands I & II (172 MW), Thanet (300 MW), Greater Gabbard (504 MW), London Array (1 GW), Lincs (250 MW), Sheringham Shoal (315 MW)
www.dw-1.com Map: OrbisEnergy
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East of England
• Scroby Sands project still represents a high in terms of UK value content: • 48% UK content • 16% EoE content • Successive UK projects have failed to attract significant local content,
Barrow being a key example • Major future projects offer potential for regional content and development, e.g. London Array & Thanet
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East of England
• EoE has significant offshore experience through oil & gas activities:
16,000 people employed 400 businesses in Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft • Diversifying regional industry is the key challenge • OrbisEnergy – physical hub for the EoE’s offshore renewables industry. Completion due 2008 • East Port – the new Great Yarmouth outer harbour development may offer increased offshore wind construction potential
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Introduction
East of England Global Market Conclusions
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Market update
Installed Capacity MW
1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Douglas-Westwood: The World Offshore Wind Report 2008-2012
Belgium Denmark Germany The Netherlands Sw eden UK Others
• 4.5 GW forecast for installation 2008-2012 • Annual installations grow from 219 MW in 2007, to 374 MW in 2008, and
to 1,457 MW in 2012 • UK: 2.4 GW. Germany: 672 MW, Denmark: 449 MW, Belgium: 372 MW
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Market update
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Installed Capacity MW Cumulative Installation Annual Installation
Source: Douglas-Westwood: The World Offshore Wind Report 2008-2012
• Cumulative installations reach 1.1 GW by end 2007, 2 GW by
end 2009, 5.6 GW by end 2012 • By 2012, UK 2.8 GW, Denmark 0.9 GW, Germany 0.7 GW
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Market update
Capital Expenditure €bn
4 Belgium Denmark Germany 3 The Netherlands Sw eden UK Others 2
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0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Douglas-Westwood: The World Offshore Wind Report 2008-2012
• €11.1 bn capital expenditure forecast 2008-2012 • Massive cost increases are evident:
€1.54m/MW in 2003, €2.94m/MW by 2012
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Market update
Construction Completed Capacity MW 1,200 1,000 8 800 6 600 4 400 200 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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1,400
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Source: Douglas-Westwood: The World Offshore Wind Report 2008-2012
• 2006-2008 a key period, high levels of construction activity
taking place, with completions now following • Project sizes growing considerably and two season installations now the norm – associated supply chain impact will be felt
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Installed capacity MW
Number of projects
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1,600
Country focus – Denmark
• No completions since 2003 • Good progress on the Horns Rev II
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project – contract awards ongoing Nysted II moving more slowly Identification of future sites in May 2007 – 23 locations in 7 areas with 4.6 GW capacity Identified sites are ‘easy’ to develop New tender round from Danish Energy Authority expected in 2008 Danish turbine manufacturers dominating the market at present but lack nextgeneration models Vestas’ temporary pull-back from offshore sector will impact costs
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Country focus– Germany
• Grid operators to pay grid connection
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for offshore wind First major project progressing well Supply chain growing in strength, for next phase of 5 MW turbine wind farms. Turbine & foundation manufacturers, plus R&D and testing facilities Low feed-in tariff may harm development, particularly for small independents – major utilities need to become more involved Northern German electricity supply outstripping demand HV transmission capacity must be added. Export potential exists but may not be competitive
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Country focus– The Netherlands
• First of two major projects complete,
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second under construction 472 MW of further new capacity able to receive current subsidies – high competition for sites Multiple recent planning refusals have caused concern The MEP subsidy stopped in October 2006 – seen as un-necessary to enable Netherlands 2010 target New Dutch government must consider a new market framework to ensure momentum can build
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Country focus– The UK
• Steady stream of projects entering • • • • • • • •
construction Renewables Obligation – offshore wind to receive greater number of ROCs. Cost increases in industry most visible in UK due to number of advanced projects Market dominated by large utilities Small independents struggling to progress projects Leading Round 2 projects moving ahead e.g. London Array Round 3 must be announced soon to prevent stall in activity around 2015 Supply chain constraints now being seen UK Supply chain weak but growing
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Introduction
East of England The Global Market Conclusions
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Conclusions
• 2007 & 2008 activity is finally kick• • •
starting momentum in the industry Costs have increased massively and will continue to rise Major utilities behind industry growth Changing supply chain offers new opportunities Buoyant O&G market will impact on availability and costs Lack of competition in supply chain keeping prices high – particularly for turbines and installation UK remains strongest market in short to mid-term future
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Thank you! Any questions?
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