presentation to the
2007 USA (NPC)
Nat'l Petroleum Council's
Global Oil & Gas Study
Aug 24, 2007
Updates at www.TrendLines.ca/npc.htm
(867) 660-5533 fax/tel
Marsh Lake, The Yukon ~ Canada
2007 version of ASPO-IE Discovery graph:
With this and its predecessor
versions, ASPO-Ireland has
unwittingly assisted in
creating a culture of urgency
and/or despair in a small but
growing portion of the
Has Annual Production
outpaced Yearly Discoveries
since 1985? Are Discoveries
truly only one-third of Annual
Production? And it’s getting
This hallmark forecast graphic of pending doom & gloom amid the rhetoric of economic collapse are
not helpful to meaningful discussions.
How does one square this dismal familiar picture with the reality of growing annual
production & optimistic forecasts by Agencies/Analysts/IOC’s?
Forecasts that say this advancing trend shall continue for a couple of decades.
This query goes to the very heart of the Oil supplies segment of the NPC Study … when it
states that "the world is not running out of energy reserves".
Below is a TrendLines adaptation of the ASPO-IE Discovery Graph updated with
Colin Campbell‟s July 2007 2600-Gb URR data.
It attempts to replace the current illusion of pending collapse by illustrating the
pre-backdating (behind-the-scenes) reality of URR growth.
Each year ASPO-IE et al backdate most of the new Discoveries & Reserve Growth
(as shown in yellow, where Black bars = 1995).
The bright yellow/black hashes illustrate the “before” (backdating) picture!
Red = future Conv Discoveries & RG … Lime = Non-Conv D & RG
In 2006, Trendlines premièred its
URR Estimates presentation:
In June, we (conveniently for NPC)
explored its bottom two and mostly
imperceptible graph lines:
"Annual Growth & Annual Consumption"
This is timely „cuz that data relates to the previous Annual Discovery/Reserve Growth controversy.
For supply chain, planning & marketplace stability purposes, the petroleum industry has long been
comfortable with a 40-yr Reserve/Production ratio measure of future inventory. This ratio has
been maintained for two decades. Below, tracking by BP, OGJ & the Trendlines 19-Estimate AVG
illustrate that the market is supplied well in advance when “called”.
There is NO apparent need to commence the 50-yr or 60-yr R/P ratio that ASPO infers is needed.
Most everyone agrees that URR is not a problem and most would agree with that a
Hubbert type bell curve is in play wrt Supply. URR becomes an issue for those that
believe URR is less than 3-Tb. With 1.1-Tb consumed, a 3-Tb global URR would mean
that only 400-Gb is available „til the midpoint crossover … less than 12 years „til
maximum supply (Peak Rate).
TrendLines most recent 19-Estimates AVG is 3392-Gb and presently growing at a 190-
Gb/yr rate (using 3yr avg).
The NPC Study made converts of some in the belief that URR‟s greater than 3-Tb do not
mean the Peak Year is pushed out in bell curve fashion. Most new oil Discoveries will
likely be Non-conventional but its supply is likely to dampen the Post Peak Decline
Curve Slope … not significantly raise Peak Rate nor push out the Peak Date.
In 2007, we have incorporated increased URR Estimates from OPEC, ASPO-IE, BP, Saudi
Aramco, IEA & OGJ.
Chart #5 ASPO-Ireland Scenarios 1991-2007:
In July 2007, Colin Campbell raised his Peak Rate towards 94-mbd. This is a career high that surpasses his
Estimated of 93-mbd (for 2009) made in 1999.
Problematic of strict bottom-up forecasting is that New Project announcements for the 7-12 year range are
historically absent and thus are outside of the medium/long term parameters of those analysts relying on facts
rather than supposition.
IOC’s, Agencies & some Analysts (e.g. Michael Lynch) seem to build in a slush component that precludes the
upward revision issues of strict bottom-uppers.
While not perfect, we are grateful to this pattern of upward/outward revisions of Peak Rate & Peak Date as the
consistency is an intuitive and beneficial tool. Rather than ridicule such revisions, these Outlooks serve the
purpose of setting a baseline for policy-makers.
For NPC purposes, it's important to monitor the rate of their (real) changes moreso than the absolute
numbers. If the revisions cease or turn downward … it's a sign!
TrendLines Scenarios Avg remains 95-mbd in 2020:
• The models & Outlooks continue to merge …
• Pessimists continue to raise forecasts for Peak Rate & Peak Date in 2006/2007
• And Optimists are sharpening their pencils with increased their data being (instantly)
scrutinized much more by media, peers, analysts & pundits
Thanx for your attention today ~ See our website for monthly updates to these charts!