Census Coverage Measurement and Demographic Analysis by wij58395

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									  2010 Census Coverage
Measurement Survey Update

    2010 State Data Center/
   Census Information Center
  Steering Committee Meeting

        February 23, 2010

          Thomas Mule
        US Census Bureau
                               1
  CCM – Census Coverage
      Measurement
• Survey provides estimates of coverage
  error for people in housing units and for
  housing units:
  • Excludes group quarters and remote
    Alaska
  • Includes Puerto Rico
• No intent to adjust the census

                                              2
              Net Error
• Uses dual-system estimation, a sample
  capture-recapture technique
• Used in 1980, 1990, and 2000
• Provides estimates of net undercount
  and overcount
  • Key demographic groups
  • Specific geographic areas
• Requires independence from census
                                          3
   Components of Census
      Coverage Error
• New objective for 2010
• Provides estimates of:
  • Correct enumerations – those included correctly
    by the census
  • Erroneous enumerations – those included
    incorrectly by the census
  • Imputations
  • Omissions – those missed by the census
• Key demographic groups and by census
  operations

                                                      4
        2000 A.C.E.
     Measurement Error
• 2000 coverage measurement
  program failed to detect erroneous
  enumerations
  • Many were census duplicates
• CCM Goal: Reduce nonsampling
 error from the 2000 Accuracy and
 Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.)
                                       5
   Sample Design of 2010
           CCM
• Area sample of block clusters – groups
  of census collection blocks
• Population (P) Sample: Independent
  sample of housing units in block
  clusters. Recapture sample.
• Enumeration (E) Sample: Census
  enumerations in the same sample block
  clusters
                                           6
      Independent Listing
• Independent listing of area sample
  • Canvass block cluster
  • List addresses of housing units and
    potential housing units
• Timing: August-December 2009




                                          7
        Person Interview
• Laptop interview at independently listed
  addresses
  • Personal visit
  • Gather independent roster of people
• Probing questions about places where
  the person:
  • Should have been counted
  • Could have been counted
• Timing: August-October 2010
                                             8
      Person Matching and
           Followup
• Match people collected in CCM to census person list
   • Computer
   • Clerical
• Search throughout the country
   • Computer nationwide search
   • Clerical search at places the person could have
     been counted from the person interview
• Person Followup (personal visit and telephone,
  paper-based)
• Timing: October 2010 – April 2011

                                                        9
     Current Plans for
Estimation Domains for 2010
           CCM
• Estimation domains have not been
  finalized so products shown here are
  current plans
• Break into 3 Major Groupings:
  • Demographic/housing unit characteristic
    groups
  • Geographic areas
  • Census operation results
                                              10
    Examples of Estimation Domains for
    Demographic Groupings for People in
              Housing Units
Demographic    Net Error          Components of Census Coverage
Groupings
                           Correct    Erroneous   Imputations   Omissions

Race and         Yes        Yes          Yes         Yes          Yes
Hispanic
Origin
Tenure           Yes        Yes          Yes         Yes          Yes

Age/Sex          Yes        Yes          Yes         Yes          Yes
Groupings
Individual       Yes         No          No           No           No
Years of Age


                                                                            11
     Examples of Estimation Domains for
    Geographic Areas for People in Housing
                    Units
Geographic Areas      Net            Components of Census Coverage
                     Error
                              Correct   Erroneous Imputations   Omissions

Type of               Yes      Yes        Yes         Yes         Yes
Enumeration Areas
Bilingual Mailing     Yes      Yes        Yes         Yes         Yes
Blocks
Region                Yes      Yes        Yes         Yes         Yes

Each State            Yes     Under      Under      Under        Under
                              Review     Review     Review       Review
Substate Estimates   Under    Under      Under      Under        Under
(county, places)     Review   Review     Review     Review       Review
                                                                            12
     Examples of Estimation Domains for
   Census Operations for People in Housing
                   Units
Census                Net           Components of Census Coverage
Operation/Results    Error
                             Correct Erroneous Imputations   Omissions



Mail Return           No      Yes        Yes        Yes         No

NRFU enumeration      No      Yes        Yes        Yes         No

Operation Check-in    No      Yes        Yes        Yes         No
Date Groupings
Coverage Followup     No      Yes        Yes        Yes         No


                                                                         13
   What about those people who
   should have been enumerated
         somewhere else?

• A table to show people who should been
  enumerated outside our block cluster
  search area.
  • Same county
  • Different county in the same state
  • Different state

                                           14
     Examples of Estimation Domains for
     HU Characteristics for Housing Units

Demographic              Net        Components of Census Coverage
Groupings               Error
                                Correct     Erroneous      Omissions

Occupancy Status        Yes      Yes           Yes            Yes

Tenure of               Yes      Yes           Yes            Yes
Occupied Units
Type of Structure       Yes      Yes           Yes            Yes
(Single, Multi-units)




                                                                       15
      Examples of Estimation Domains for
      Geographic Areas for Housing Units
Geographic Areas      Net         Components of Census Coverage
                     Error
                              Correct    Erroneous       Omissions

Type of               Yes      Yes          Yes             Yes
Enumeration Areas
Region                Yes      Yes          Yes             Yes

Each State            Yes     Under        Under          Under
                              Review       Review         Review
Substate Estimates   Under    Under        Under          Under
(county, place)      Review   Review       Review         Review




                                                                     16
     Examples of Estimation Domains for
     Census Operations for Housing Units

Census                Net        Components of Census Coverage
Operation/Results    Error
                             Correct     Erroneous       Omissions

Field Verification    No      Yes           Yes             No


Nonresponse           No      Yes           Yes             No
Followup
Vacant/Delete
Check




                                                                     17
     Housing units that were
      geocoded incorrectly
• A table to show housing unit geocoding
  results in relation to block cluster search
  area
  • Geocoded to block cluster
  • Geocoded one block outside of the cluster
  • Geocoded beyond one block outside of the
    cluster


                                                18
Reducing Nonsampling Error
        in the CCM
• Part of Decennial review
  conducted by Director Groves
• Identified areas in the CCM where
  efforts can be made to reduce
  nonsampling error


                                      19
      CCM Sample Size
• Reduced from 300,000 to 170,000
  housing units
• American Indian Reservation and
  Hawaii sample remain same
• 1,000 target minimum state
  housing unit sample size
                                    20
    2010 Evaluations and
       Assessments
• Evaluations
  • Goals
    • Examine results of 2010
    • Improve 2020

• Assessments
  • Every operation

                                21
          Thanks!

vincent.t.mule.jr@census.gov




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