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DRAFT THEORY OF CHANGE – ARTICULATING YOUR PRIDE CAMPAIGN’S CONSERVATION IMPACT
What is the Draft Theory of Change and why is it important?
The Draft Theory of Change (ToC) is your best articulation of the type of Pride Campaign you think you will run at your site.
Because Pride is about changing behavior at the community-level to achieve long-term conservation, the Draft ToC allows Rare
to understand the conservation impact your Pride campaign could have by documenting which biodiversity threat you
will focus on and how you will change behaviors of key groups to reduce this threat. The Draft ToC is best understood by
looking at seven linked variables.
1. Conservation Result (CR)
What conservation result are we trying to achieve, and what is the target we will focus on to do so?
2. Threat Reduction (TR)
What are the main threats to our conservation target, and which can we reduce?
3. Behavior Change (BC)
What behaviors for which group(s) must change in order to reduce this threat?
4. Barrier Removal (BR)
What are the barriers to adoption of the new behavior we want to see, and how can we remove them?
5. IC (Interpersonal Communication)
What conversations are needed to encourage people to adopt the new behavior?
6. Attitude (A)
What attitudes must shift for these conversations to happen?
7. Knowledge (K)
What knowledge is needed to increase awareness and help shift these attitudes?
These seven variables are linked together with the following equation, K + A + IC + BR -> BC -> TR -> CR, which means that
“an increase in knowledge plus a change in attitude, interpersonal communication, and barrier removal leads to behavior
change, which leads to threat reduction, and, ultimately, a conservation result.” This equation will be the basis for
developing your Draft ToC and will allow you to document some plausible results chains affecting long-term biodiversity
conservation at your site. A results chain "shows the expected outcomes from the implementation of a strategy, and thus
represents the assumptions you are making about your project site.” (Source: Miradi).
Please note: the Draft Theory of Change is your campaign hypothesis, or “first draft”, based on the data you currently have
available and may be revised.
Who develops the Draft Theory of Change?
The draft Theory of Change will be jointly developed by you, Rare and any additional partners critical to your campaign’s success.
You will develop the first version for submission to Rare. Using the Draft Theory of Change Template provided below, you will
identify the likely components of your Pride campaign by defining a conservation target for your campaign (e.g. coral reef), the
principal threat(s) to that target (e.g. dynamite fishing), the behaviors of that group you would like to change (e.g. reducing the
practice of fishermen practicing dynamite fishing), the barrier removal necessary required to change this behavior (e.g. provision
of special nets to replace dynamite), and the communications elements Pride will need to support this change. Once you have
identified these different components and how they are linked, you will be able to write a summary of your Draft Theory of
Change.
Who reviews and evaluates the Draft Theory of Change?
Rare staff will review and evaluate the Draft Theory of Change. Review may be an iterative process so that Rare staff can provide
feedback to improve the Draft Theory of Change before a final evaluation is made.
What criteria are used to evaluate the Draft Theory of Change?
Rare evaluates a Draft Theory of Change based on three key criteria 1) Intended Conservation Impact 2) Feasibility of
Implementation 3) Ability to Measure Results
1) To effectively show “Conservation Impact”, you must specify a conservation result that has a specific and measureable
target result and demonstrate a logical link across from behavior change to this conservation result.
2) To demonstrate the “Feasibility of Implementation”, you must show that your specified threat is human-induced, the
campaign is a well-integrated part of the your organization’s strategy, and that you have an effective and relevant barrier
removal plan and partners.
3) Your “Ability to Measure Results” will be determined by whether or not you have a plan and partner for monitoring and
evaluating your campaign. Any baseline data you have is also helpful.
How do I fill out the Draft Theory of Change Template? You will follow six steps to complete your Draft Theory of Change.
Note that you will fill out the template moving from right to left.
1. Identify the conservation result and conservation target in your site that your campaign will focus on.
Please note that a conservation target must be more specific that simply naming the site in which you work. It is helpful to
consider the following definition when trying to identify targets: “A limited suite of species, communities, and ecological
systems that are chosen to represent and encompass the full array of biodiversity found in a project area. They are the
basis for setting goals, carrying out conservation actions, and measuring conservation effectiveness. In theory - and
hopefully in practice - conservation of the focal targets will ensure the conservation of all native biodiversity within functional
landscapes” (Source: Miradi) Examples of biodiversity targets are, coral reefs, mangroves, golden lion tamarin, etc.
2. Identify the principal threat(s) to this conservation target.
If you are not sure what the principal threat is please complete additional “Draft Theory of Change” templates for each
threat you identify.
3. Identify the behavior change needed to reduce the threat.
In order to this, you will need to specify the behavior(s) that cause the principal threat and the group(s) that lies behind this
behavior.
4. Propose alternate behaviors and the barriers that might prevent the group(s) from adopting it.
You will need to also identify barrier removal tools that exist and who might provide them. Barrier removal tools may be
provided by organizations not engaged in conservation. It is helpful to consult your network to generate ideas about what
barrier tools may be most appropriate for your situation.
5. Identify the type of interpersonal communication your Pride Campaign will need to generate to help the target group change
their behavior.
You will need to identify the knowledge and attitudes needed for these discussions to take place.
6. Write a narrative paragraph to complete your Draft Theory of Change.
This paragraph articulates your proposed Pride campaign strategy, i.e. how you will change behaviors of key groups to
reduce threats to the biodiversity target in your site. Please include a statement articulating why you believe this campaign
strategy will be effective citing proof of concept for this type of Theory of Change at other sites, case studies, or analogue
situations.
As you fill out the template, please always provide a source for the data you quote (ideally also how and when it was obtained).
Try to answer each question fully but succinctly. Where you have no data or cannot answer write “no data” or to be
determined (TBD). For assistance in completing the template please refer to the example Draft Theory of Change template
called: “Invasive Rodents – Serena Islands”.
DRAFT THEORY OF CHANGE TEMPLATE: <INSERT NAME OF THREAT AND THE NAME OF YOUR SITE>
IC+A+K BR BC TR CR
5 4 3 2 1
WHAT DOES HOW CAN WE WHAT BEHAVIOR WHAT IS THE WHAT IS THE
A PRIDE CAMPAIGN REMOVE BARRIERS DO WE WANT TO SEE PRINCIPAL THREAT CONSERVATION
NEED TO TO ADOPTION OF A CHANGE? TO CONSERVATION RESULT AND
COMMUNICATE? NEW BEHAVIOR? TARGET? TARGET?
Identify the interpersonal Identify alternate behaviors Identify what behavior lies Write in principal threat to Write in the expected
communication needed to and the barriers to adopting behind the threat and which target that we want to conservation result and
adopt the new behavior. it (i.e. technological, social, group causes it. reduce. conservation target name
economic, political). (this m be a habitat or
species).
What conversations are What alternate behaviors (or Which group(s) is What evidence exists that What evidence is there that it
needed to encourage people actions) might be proposed? responsible for this behavior this is a principal threat and is a high priority for
to adopt the new behavior? _____________________ and what evidence exists to that we can reduce it? biodiversity conservation?
_____________________ _____________________ support this identification? _____________________ _____________________
_____________________ What might be some _____________________ _____________________ _____________________
perceived benefits to the _____________________ _____________________ _____________________
What are the attitudes we groups if behavior change is _____________________
want to shift for made? Does baseline data exist on Does baseline data exist on
interpesocnal _____________________ What evidence exists that this threat, if yes how is this its current state, if yes how
communication to take _____________________ this group lies behind the data collected (measures data is collected (measures
place? principal threat? and metrics) and how and metrics) and how
_____________________ What might be some barriers _____________________ frequently? frequently?
_____________________ stopping a change to desired _____________________ _____________________ _____________________
_____________________ behavior? _____________________ _____________________ _____________________
_____________________ _____________________ _____________________
What knowledge is needed _____________________ Does baseline data exist on
to increase awareness and this group, if yes how is this What other threats impact What is the desired
help shift these attitudes? What barrier removal tools data collected (measures this biodiversity target? conservation result and by
_____________________ exist and how do you know and metrics) and how _____________________ when?
_____________________ they will be effective? frequently? _____________________ _____________________
_____________________ _____________________ _____________________ _____________________ _____________________
_____________________ _____________________ _____________________
Who will provide these tools? What other groups might
_____________________ contribute to the threat?
_____________________ _____________________
_____________________
6 Using the data from above, please write a narrative articulating your Draft Theory of Change. Include one sentence stating why you think it will be
effective. Max 200 words:
REVIEW – TO BE COMPLETED BY RARE STAFF
Is the conservation result.. Is the threat… Is the behavior we seek to Is the strategy for barrier Is the communication
change…. removal… objective…
Specific? Specific? Specific? Specific? Specific?
Measurable? Measurable? Measurable? Measurable? Measurable?
Attainable? Attainable? Attainable? Attainable? Attainable?
Relevant? Relevant? Relevant? Relevant? Relevant?
Timebound? Time bound? Time bound? Time bound? Time bound?
Do we have or know of Do we have or know of Do we have or know of Do we have or know of Do we have or know of
relevant prior experience? relevant prior experience? relevant prior experience? relevant prior experience? relevant prior experience?
What are the risks? What are the risks? What are the risks? What are the risks? What are the risks?
5 IC+A+K 4 BR 3 BC 2 TR 1 CR
WHAT DOES HOW CAN WE REMOVE WHAT BEHAVIOR DO WHAT IS THE WHAT IS THE
A PRIDE CAMPAIGN BARRIERS TO WE WANT TO SEE PRINCIPAL CONSERVATION
NEED TO ADOPTION OF A NEW CHANGE? THREAT TO RESULT AND
COMMUNICATE? BEHAVIOR? CONSERVATION TARGET?
TARGET?
Identify the interpersonal Identify alternate behaviors and Identify what behavior lies Write in principal threat Write in conservation
communication needed to the barriers to adopting it (i.e. behind the threat and which to target that we want target name
adopt the new behavior? technological, social, economic, target audience causes it to reduce
INCREASE political). FISHERMEN INCREASE
DISCUSSION PROVIDE RAT TRAPS REINTRODUCING INVASIVE ANDREA QUAIL
ABOUT RATS AND AND ERADICATION RATS TO SERENA IN RATS DOVE TO 250
ERADICATION BOATS BY 2010
What conversations are needed to What alternate behaviors (or actions) Which group(s) is responsible for What evidence exists that What evidence is there that
encourage people to adopt the might be proposed? Trap rats in their this behavior and what evidence this is the principal it is a high priority for
new behavior? Benefits of rat boats to prevent invasion exists to support this identification? threat? biodiversity conservation?
eradication discussed; costs are Fisherman. REI survey determined Provisional threat ranking Endangered, endemic
discounted. Eradication is good What might be perceived benefits if rat reinvasion came by fishing boat conducted by Dr restricted to Serena. IUCN
for the country and given some behavior change is made? Continued boats Camerol, ANS listed. Pop 100
concessions for the fishermen. access to fishing, reduced despoiling
of nets, reduced fishing fees, less Does baseline data exist on this Does baseline data exist Does baseline data exist
What are the attitudes we want to disease, more tourism, island pride. group, if yes how is this data on this threat, if yes how on its current state, if yes
shift for interpersonal collected (measures and metrics) is this data collected how is this data collected
communication to take place? What might be the barriers to a and how frequently? (measures and metrics) (measures and metrics)
Social marketing campaign: change to desired behavior? Lack of Yes, 2007 Fisheries Dept Survey and how frequently? and how frequently?
1. increases willingness to trap awareness of issue, no traps, no estimate 50-70 fishing boats on Yes, number of rats on Yes, bi-annual transect
rats on boats money, inconvenience of setting traps Serena at any point in year island and in boats surveys conducted by ANS
2. Increases acceptance of rat and disposing of dead rats, surveyed by REI
eradication on island What other groups might contribute Reinvasion by boats What is the desired state
What barrier removal tools exist and to the principal threat? determined principal and by when?
What knowledge is needed to how do you know they will be Visitors from Andrea l(picnicking or vector 250 birds by 2010
increase awareness and help shift effective? campaign) considered viable state
these attitudes?? Donate traps, rat eradication, What other threats impact
Increased awareness of health increase benefits by reducing fees this biodiversity target?
and environmental problems of and removing threat of lost fishing Hunting, fire
rats among fishers & recreational rights. Proven in New Zealand
visitors; knowledge of potential
benefits of joining the program, Who will provide these tools?
i.e. reduced fees, continued REI will eradicate rats on island, and
access, etc. provide traps
Using the data from above, please write a narrative articulating your Draft Theory of Change. Include one sentence stating why you think it will be effective.
Max 200 words:
To eliminate the principal threat posed to the endemic and endangered Andrea Quail Dove, invasive rodents must be eradicated from Serena Island and
their reinvasion prevented. Fishermen will be informed of the threats posed by rodents and the benefits of eradication. They will be given snap traps and
trained in their use; then asked to trap rats on their boats. There will be 100% compliance in adopting rodent monitoring and trapping strategies prior to their
using the island. The Serena Pride Campaign will be deemed successful if rodents are eradicated from the island, re-invasion has not taken place and if the
population of endemic Andrea Quail Doves rebound from 100 birds in 2007 to 250 by 2010. Similar successes have been achieved on Campbell Island in
New Zealand offering us hope for Serena and its Dove!
SAMPLE REVIEW
Is the conservation result.. Is the threat… Is the behavior we seek to Is the strategy for barrier Is the communication
change…. removal… objective…
Specific? Specific? Specific? Specific? Specific?
Measurable? Measurable? Measurable? Measurable? Measurable?
Attainable? Attainable? Attainable? Attainable? Attainable?
Relevant? Relevant? Relevant? Relevant? Relevant?
Timebound? Time bound? Time bound? Time bound? Time bound?
Do we have or know of Do we have or know of Do we have or know of Do we have or know of Do we have or know of
relevant prior experience? relevant prior experience? relevant prior experience? relevant prior experience? relevant prior experience?
What are the risks? What are the risks? What are the risks? What are the risks? What are the risks?
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