A. Hypothesis A by ilo32820


									 Event 0: Divergence of
 ancestral VARV from TATV
                                     Event 1:                                                            A. Hypothesis A
                                     P-I/P-II divergence

                                                                                  Mild smallpox
                                                                                  in 1860s
                                               Event 2a: P-I                               Event 4:
                                               Radiatio and migration
                                                      n                                    Slave trade
                                                                                                                                   Old World (P-I):
                                                                                             Alastrim minor Event 2b               non-West Africa
Event 4: Importation of                                                 Event 3:
                                                                                             ~ 1900s
S. American P-II             Event 2b:                                  Divergence
subclade via slave trade     P-I importation                            in S. America
                             into S. Africa

                            Key events in human history and smallpox epidemics

                                                                                                            Event 2a
                                                                                                                                    Old World (P-I):
                                                                               Variola phylogeny

                                                                                                           Event 1
                                                                    Event 0

                                                                                                                                   P-II: West Africa

                                                                                                              Event 3              P-II: South America

                                                                                                                        Event 4:

   B. Hypothesis B

                                Event 2a: P-I radiation
                                and migration

     Event 0:African
     divergence of
  Event 1: African
  divergence of P-I/P-II                                                                            Alastrim minor
      Event 3:African                                                                               ~ 1900s
      divergence of P-II            Event 2b:P-I importation
                                    into S. Africa                                                    Event 4:
                                                                                                 Introduction of an African P-II
                                                                                                 subclade via the slave trade
                                  Key events in human history and smallpox epidemics

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