Economic Tables (Tables 1-4)

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Economic Tables (Tables 1-4) Powered By Docstoc
					                                                      TABLE 1

                              U.S. SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

               ECONOMIC                            FISCAL YEAR 2010                       FISCAL YEAR 2011
               VARIABLE                 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR. 1ST. QTR. 2ND. QTR. 3RD QTR. 4TH. QTR.

Real GDP
(Billions of 2005$)                     13,097.9   13,155.3   13,214.5   13,286.6   13,374.6   13,466.7   13,585.4   13,708.8
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate          2.6%       1.8%       1.8%       2.2%       2.7%       2.8%       3.6%       3.7%

Refiners' Acquisition Cost - Average
(Dollars)                                66.54      61.63      60.68      63.52      66.37      69.21      72.05      74.90
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate          12.2%     -26.4%      -6.0%      20.1%      19.1%      18.3%      17.5%      16.7%

Consumer Price Index
(1982-84 equals 100)                      216.4     216.2      216.7      217.8      218.9      220.2      221.6      223.0
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate           2.1%      -0.3%      1.0%       2.0%       2.0%       2.5%       2.5%       2.6%

Source: Global Insight, October 2009.




                                                                                                                          9/24/2010
                                                     TABLE 2

                         U.S. LONG-TERM ECONOMIC FORECASTS

                                GROSS                      CONSUMER PRICE              REFINERS' ACQUISITION COST
FISCAL                  DOMESTIC PRODUCT¹                       INDEX¹                          AVERAGE²
YEAR                       (Billions 2005$)                  (1982-84=100)                   (Dollars per barrel)
Historical
2000                           11,145.9                           170.74                         26.70

2005                           12,553.8                           193.48                          47.20
2006                           12,898.3                           200.62                          59.94
2007                           13,171.4                           205.30                          60.59
2008                           13,374.5                           214.42                         101.52
2009E                          12,995.9                           213.78                          54.22

Forecast
2010                           13,188.6                           216.75                         61.92

2011                           13,533.9                           220.93                         69.25
2012                           14,024.1                           225.74                         76.47
2013                           14,469.8                           229.95                         80.21
2014                           14,852.6                           234.38                         83.34
2015                           15,233.2                           238.86                         86.90

2016                           15,612.1                           243.61                         90.75
2017                           15,995.2                           248.36                         93.02
2018                           16,414.8                           253.16                         94.74
2019                           16,876.8                           257.90                         94.50
2020                           17,391.6                           262.39                         92.82

2021                           17,858.1                           266.95                         90.82
2022                           18,318.4                           271.60                         89.58
2023                           18,794.2                           276.34                         88.42
2024                           19,272.8                           281.42                         89.70
2025                           19,783.0                           286.72                         91.79

2026                           20,300.2                           292.14                          93.77
2027                           20,802.1                           297.76                          95.70
2028                           21,317.6                           303.45                          98.45
2029                           21,832.4                           309.45                         101.47
2030                           22,381.6                           315.71                         104.45

Avg Annual Growth
2000-09                          1.7%                             2.5%                            8.2%
2009-10                          1.5%                             1.4%                           14.2%
2010-20                          2.8%                             1.9%                            4.1%
2009-30                          2.6%                             1.9%                            3.2%

Source: 2009-2030; Global Insight, US Economic Outlook, October 2009. Extrapolated to 2030.
                                                                                                                    9/24/2010
                                                     TABLE 3

                      INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS BY TRAVEL REGION

                                                    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
                                                    (In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)
                                                                                       JAPAN/PACIFIC
                                          EUROPE/                                  BASIN/CHINA/OTHER
CALENDAR                                  AFRICA/            LATIN AMERICA/          ASIA/AUSTRALIA/
YEAR                        CANADA      MIDDLE EAST              MEXICO                 N. ZEALAND     WORLD
Historical
2000                         1,000.2      15,280.3              2,162.7               8,837.1          39,702.4

2005                         1,134.1      17,061.5              2,454.0              10,743.3          45,612.1
2006                         1,166.5      17,709.7              2,587.0              11,327.3          47,468.3
2007                         1,196.0      18,291.9              2,726.9              12,014.0          49,310.9
2008                         1,200.9      18,541.8              2,833.2              12,379.0          50,186.1
2009E                        1,170.2      17,910.5              2,759.6              12,384.7          49,040.5

Forecast
2010                         1,195.4      18,144.7              2,848.8              12,966.2          50,286.6

2011                         1,236.6      18,513.8              2,972.2              13,579.7          51,897.7
2012                         1,280.8      18,978.4              3,101.9              14,284.6          53,835.8
2013                         1,321.7      19,492.9              3,229.3              15,069.3          55,806.2
2014                         1,359.2      20,035.1              3,356.3              15,903.4          57,817.1
2015                         1,393.7      20,550.8              3,482.3              16,760.8          59,821.8

2016                         1,427.0      21,063.7              3,611.5              17,599.5          61,808.9
2017                         1,459.8      21,576.6              3,744.7              18,425.1          63,793.8
2018                         1,493.4      22,094.9              3,881.0              19,266.7          65,845.8
2019                         1,527.5      22,623.6              4,022.4              20,130.3          67,986.4
2020                         1,560.2      23,156.3              4,166.4              21,011.6          70,188.6

2021                         1,593.1      23,690.7              4,315.1              21,923.0          72,376.5
2022                         1,625.6      24,223.8              4,467.9              22,852.1          74,595.3
2023                         1,659.7      24,762.8              4,625.8              23,812.9          76,877.7
2024                         1,693.7      25,314.7              4,788.1              24,819.3          79,236.8
2025                         1,728.3      25,873.7              4,956.2              25,866.8          81,684.4

2026                         1,764.3      26,442.0              5,130.1              26,938.7          84,164.7
2027                         1,800.6      27,018.5              5,308.4              28,054.7          86,696.8
2028                         1,839.7      27,604.9              5,491.8              29,192.3          89,281.2
2029                         1,878.8      28,198.4              5,681.1              30,358.4          91,915.8
2030                         1,918.4      28,803.2              5,876.3              31,551.9          94,639.4

Avg Annual Growth
2000-09                       1.8%          1.8%                 2.7%                  3.8%             2.4%
2009-10                       2.1%          1.3%                 3.2%                  4.7%             2.5%
2010-20                       2.7%          2.5%                 3.9%                  4.9%             3.4%
2009-30                       2.4%          2.3%                 3.7%                  4.6%             3.2%

Source: Global Insight, October 2009.


                                                                                                                  9/24/2010
                                                    TABLE 4

            INTERNATIONAL GDP FORECASTS--SELECTED AREAS/COUNTRIES

                                                    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
                                                    (In Billions of 2005 U.S. Dollars)
                              NORTH
CALENDAR                     AMERICA                            UNITED
YEAR                         (NAFTA)    EUROZONE               KINGDOM                   JAPAN     CHINA
Historical
2000                         13,001.7    9,380.0                 2,014.8                 4,272.2   1,420.5

2005                         14,621.6    10,116.3                2,279.3                 4,556.7   2,244.1
2006                         15,035.4    10,430.9                2,344.3                 4,649.4   2,504.4
2007                         15,372.5    10,714.3                2,404.3                 4,755.6   2,830.0
2008                         15,448.2    10,773.6                2,417.5                 4,722.6   3,083.5
2009E                        15,019.7    10,346.0                2,311.5                 4,447.7   3,333.3

Forecast
2010                         15,346.5    10,435.1                2,335.1                 4,495.9   3,669.5

2011                         15,806.2    10,577.6                2,371.6                 4,562.4   3,990.4
2012                         16,383.8    10,758.7                2,428.1                 4,655.2   4,332.9
2013                         16,873.5    10,976.8                2,493.4                 4,764.5   4,724.8
2014                         17,326.1    11,208.4                2,564.5                 4,878.3   5,156.6
2015                         17,768.2    11,412.5                2,630.4                 4,985.1   5,610.2

2016                         18,211.5    11,615.6                2,693.8                 5,060.6   6,069.7
2017                         18,662.9    11,816.2                2,756.6                 5,104.3   6,544.0
2018                         19,155.6    12,014.4                2,820.8                 5,139.8   7,043.3
2019                         19,699.2    12,219.5                2,885.7                 5,170.2   7,565.3
2020                         20,272.8    12,420.7                2,951.4                 5,196.5   8,109.7

2021                         20,796.5    12,623.2                3,017.6                 5,218.2    8,687.0
2022                         21,325.7    12,823.3                3,082.1                 5,238.1    9,279.0
2023                         21,870.3    13,025.0                3,147.2                 5,257.2    9,897.1
2024                         22,421.5    13,232.6                3,212.6                 5,276.1   10,548.4
2025                         23,008.1    13,440.8                3,277.8                 5,294.4   11,228.2

2026                         23,592.0    13,651.1                3,345.7                 5,312.6   11,923.6
2027                         24,167.7    13,862.1                3,416.0                 5,331.6   12,652.0
2028                         24,758.6    14,075.0                3,487.0                 5,352.1   13,389.4
2029                         25,353.7    14,287.4                3,558.1                 5,372.2   14,142.8
2030                         25,992.5    14,500.8                3,631.8                 5,389.7   14,916.0

Avg Annual Growth
2000-09                        1.6%       1.1%                    1.5%                    0.4%       9.9%
2009-10                        2.2%       0.9%                    1.0%                    1.1%      10.1%
2010-20                        2.8%       1.8%                    2.4%                    1.5%       8.3%
2009-30                        2.6%       1.6%                    2.2%                    0.9%       7.4%

Source: Global Insight, October 2009.

                                                                                                              9/24/2010

				
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