November 2006
12th District Commercial Real Estate Lending Risks
I. Residential Real Estate
Figures 1 & 2: A significant slowdown is underway in the housing market. Inventories of new homes for sale are at all-time highs, and this number is expected to grow as homes under construction come onto the market amidst cancellations and slowing sales. Prices are softening and mortgage delinquencies are rising in many areas of the West. The impact of the slowdown is being felt as job growth slows, driven by a contraction of California construction jobs in 2006 year-to-date. Homebuilders are offering incentives and lowering their sales outlook. Some are experiencing serious problems, including a major New Jersey builder that recently filed for bankruptcy, reportedly with outstanding loans from eight commercial banks. There is no consensus yet on whether we are facing a mild/short-lived housing correction or a more substantial/ protracted downturn. If the rest of the economy holds up reasonably well, the former is more likely.
1) Record levels of home construction
Inventory of New Single-Family Homes - Nation
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Jul-06
2) Housing slowdown is now apparent in the construction employment numbers
Annual % Growth in Jobs
12D Total Jobs 12D Const. Jobs Calif. Const Jobs
Totals: 2006 (Aug) 2005 2004 2003
569k 477k 403k 342k
+19.3% +18.4% +17.8% + 2.7%
Under Construction
8 6
8.4% 6.3% 2.9%
9.3% 7.4%
Completed Not Started
4 2 0 -2 -4
3.5% 2.2%
2.5%
-2.4%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Data in 000s Not started = Permitted but not yet started
2004 2005 2006 Source: BLS. Annual data except 2006 which is nine months annualized. 12D = Twelfth Federal Reserve District (9 Western states)
Figures 3 & 4: While financing single-family construction is becoming riskier in areas where market conditions are softening, financing of condominium projects in these areas may be even riskier, especially if enough units are not pre-sold before construction begins. Once construction is underway, all the units in a building must be built, with the developer carrying the entire cost. In the second quarter 2006, condominium price appreciation slowed sharply from last year. Some previously high-flying markets such as San Diego saw prices decline. By September, median condo prices were down over 12% in the West. Despite these trends, the number of condos under construction keeps reaching new record highs, even before considering conversions. These new units will add to an already escalating supply and may depress prices further.
3) After slowing through 2Q06 condo prices are now on the decline
September 2006 YOY Price Change: National: -2.8% West*: -12.4%
50,000
4) Despite soft prices, condo construction in full force
Total Units Under Construction
52,892
Orange C 2,985 Oakland 3,478 Seattle 3,638 Portland 4,757 San Diego 4,825 LA
Qtrly MSA Condo Price Data Through June 2006 (Sept. data not yet available) % Chg 2Q04- 2Q05 % Chg 2Q05 - 2Q06 Pctg Pt Chg Phoenix 34.6% 25.3% -9.3 Honolulu 26.4% 18.7% -7.7 Riverside 27.8% 18.4% -9.4 Portland 19.2% 15.9% -3.3 Tucson 25.7% 10.7% -15.0 Las Vegas 27.4% 7.7% -19.7 Los Angeles 19.8% 6.3% -13.5 San Francisco 26.7% 4.0% -22.7 Sacramento 27.1% 0.5% -26.6 San Diego 5.5% -3.4% -8.9 Reno 76.8% -8.9% -85.7 National 14.9% -0.3% -15.2
40,000
34,102 25,573
30,000 20,000
4,861 7,520
Phoenix
15,284
Las Vegas 8,414
Other MSAs in the West
10,000 0 2003 2004 2005
12,414
2006
Source: National Association of Realtors. Median prices for existing condos * West = Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico and states to the west
Source: TWR / Dodge Pipeline; projects underway as of July or August in each year (does not include apartment-to-condo conversions)
1
Alaska
12
TH
Washington Oregon Idaho
District CRE Lending Risks – page 2
II. Commercial Real Estate
Hawaii
Nevada Utah California Arizona
Figures 5 & 6: District CRE market fundamentals continue to strengthen. Vacancy and availability rates continue to improve while loan delinquencies and charge-offs are near historic lows. Rents have rebounded from recent lows in every sector except retail, where they are just now beginning to slip. Forecasts call for continuing strong rent growth particularly in the office and industrial sectors. But retail could be somewhat riskier in the short-term as the slowing housing market, heavy debt burdens, and higher short term interest rates may cause consumer spending to slow. Retail space being developed alongside new residential communities may present an area of risk if the growth plans in those communities fail to materialize. Fortunately, with forecasts of solid population, income, and job growth in the West, softening in the retail sector is likely to be short term. However, a sharper than expected contraction in housing would negatively impact all commercial property sectors. Figure 7: Another positive for lenders is the continued rise of commercial property prices, which has enhanced collateral values. This run-up in commercial property prices resembles the recent run-up in residential real estate, leading some to consider if commercial real estate is overpriced. Maybe not. Solid rent growth, strong corporate balance sheets and a continuous flow of capital into CRE from investors attracted by above-average returns may continue to bolster the market. Additionally, increased transparency in CRE markets has reduced the risk premium and is likely to be an ongoing factor. Barring significantly higher interest rates or a sharper downturn in the economy than is currently forecast, prices should continue holding their own, at least in the nearterm.
5) Despite recent weakness in retail, commercial
rents are trending upwards
$/SF
22
$/Unit
RETAIL
20 18 16 14 12 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
1000 960 920 880 840 800 760 720 680 640 600
MULTI-HOUSING
1994
1995
1997
1998
2000
2001
2003
2004
2005
2005
2q'05
$/SF
30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 2000 2001 2002 1998 1999 1994 1995 1996 1997 2003 2004 2005 2006
$/SF
6
OFFICE
5.5 5 4.5 4 3.5
INDUSTRIAL
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Torto Wheaton Research 3Q06 History & Forecast. National.
6) Near-term rent outlook is strongest in select office Near-
and industrial markets
District MSAs With The Strongest Forecast Rent Growth
MSA Property Sector Projected Annual Rent Growth - Next 2 Years (%)
San Jose Tucson San Francisco Orange County Honolulu Seattle Honolulu San Francisco Phoenix Salt Lake City
Industrial Industrial Industrial Office Office Office Retail Office Office Office
14.8 10.2 10.2 9.8 8.7 7.3 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.3
Source: Torto Wheaton Research Outlook XL Fall 2006
7) Nationwide property values up, capitalization rates down, but for how much longer?
180 160 140 120 100 80 60
4q'88 2q'90 4q'94 2q'96 2q'02 4q'03 2q'05 4q'85 2q'87 4q'91 2q'93 2q'99 4q'00 4q'97
RETAIL
10.0 9.5
140 120
MULTI-HOUSING
9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 100 80 60 40
2q'87 4q'88 2q'93 4q'94 2q'99 4q'85 2q'90 4q'91 2q'96 4q'97 2q'02 4q'03 4q'00
280 260
OFFICE (CBD)
9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0
65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20
INDUSTRIAL
9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0
2q'90 4q'91 2q'93 4q'94 4q'00 2q'02 4q'03 2q'05 4q'88 2q'99 4q'85 2q'87 2q'96 4q'97
Questions / Additional Information: Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco gary.palmer@sf.frb.org
Contributors: Martin Karpuk, Colin Perez
240 220 200 180 160 140 120
4q'88 2q'90 4q'91 4q'97 2q'99 4q'85 2q'87 2q'93 4q'94 2q'96 4q'00 2q'02 4q'03 2q'05
Source: National Real Estate Index. Through 2Q06. Prices($/SF): Bars - Left Scale. Cap Rates (%): Line - Right Scale.
2006
10.0 9.5 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0
2006
1996
1999
2002
2