2008-09 Construction Economic Outlook
Associated General Contractors Annual Convention
March 10, 2008
Jim Haughey Chief Economist Reed Construction Data
Outlook Summary
• GDP growth begins 2008 near 0.0% and rises to near 3.0% average by late 2009 • Home construction improving but still depressed by end of 2009 • Nonresidential building construction stalls at a high level • Heavy construction expansion continues but slows
Construction Economic Environment:GDP
• GDP growth stalls until housing market stabilizes • Current inventories and labor cost not consistent with deep recession • Shrinking trade deficit offsets some of domestic spending weakness Period GDP Growth % 3.4% 0.0-0.5 2.8-3.1%
Q3 03 - Q3 07 Q4 07- Q2 08 Q3 08 - Q4 09
Construction Consequences in Early 2008
• Very low consumer and business confidence early in 2008 leads to….. • Hiring stall that reduces demand for commercial space and facilities • Delay in added federal money for transportation • Sharp drop in government budget reserves – from good to average • Lenders’ balance sheets get clean up so risk premiums for construction financing fall to near normal
Minimal Risk of Deep Recession
• An severe recession from playing out the current economic situation is unlikely • But non-economic events could prevail
– Energy prices remain at record level or rise due to OPEC stubbornness, violence in the oil fields and commodity speculation – High food price inflation gets worse due to export demand and ethanol – Net immigrant inflow reduced by tough law enforcement and booming Mexican economy
Housing Construction Outlook
• Housing starts have declined over 50% (1.135 million) and may decline slightly more by summer • Any delay in housing recovery will prolong the slowdown/recession • The # of units under construction has declined 27% (0.39 million) and will fall 105 more into the fall • Only 1/3 of 2006-08 starts decline will be recovered by the end of 2009
NR Building Boom Stalls
• Starts ($value, 3 month moving average) peaked in July/August 2007 • Spending (after inflation, $put-in-place) peaked in November/December 2007 • No significant persistent decline
– Vacancy and rental rates have stopped improving but have not declined – Commercial real estate returns still acceptable
Commercial Market
• Hotel: Weakening activity for luxury and economy hotels • Office: Financial market hiring boom is over and beginning to reverse • Retail: Weak consumer spending forces expansion & renovation delays
Construction Spending (% change)
2007 2008 2009 Hotel 65 Office 19 Retail 12 Total 22 22 11 -2 7 13 10 5 9
Institutional Market
Construction Spending (% change) • Education: Falling tax receipts force construction cuts in 2007 2008 2009 high growth states Educ. 14 9 6 • Health: Hiring stall stalls insurance Health 14 8 10 receipts • Mfg.: ’08 catch up Total 13 11 6 on capacity needs in process industries Mfg. 11 21 -3
Heavy Construction Slows
• Spending grew at a 12% pace for three years through December – off in 2008 • The value of starts peaked last summer • Transportation, communication and power spending slows from 21% (07) to 12% (09) • Highway, water/sewer, and conservation spending growth stays at about 6%
Heavy Construction Market
• Highway: Restraint from falling fuel taxes & higher costs • Power: Usual surge after cyclical peak • Water/Sewer: Down due to cutback in new building sites
Construction Spending (% change)
2007 2008 2009 Hwy. 8 6 18 2 17 9 13 7 14
Power 26 W&S Tran. 6 15
Construction Starts ($) (3 mo. avg. vs year ago)
1.800
Heavy
1.400 1.000
Comm
Institutional
0.600
20 04 -3 20 04 20 -7 04 -1 20 1 05 20 3 05 20 -7 05 -1 20 1 06 20 3 06 20 -7 06 -1 20 1 07 -3 20 07 20 -7 07 -1 1