The Economy and the 2008 Presidential Election

The Economy and the 2008 Presidential Election Presented by Celinda Lake May 20, 2008 1726 M St., NW Suite 500 Washington, DC 20036 Phone: 202-776-9066 Fax: 202-776-9074 www.lakeresearch.com Clake@lakeresearch.com Key Points: Americans have become extremely pessimistic about the economy, and believe we are in a pocketbook recession.  Across the country, voters are negative on the direction of the country and are more pessimistic about the economy, which is their most important issue.  Americans believe we are in a recession—more of a pocketbook recession than a jobs recession—and nearly half say we are in the midst of a longerterm economic downturn. Tax sensitivity is also acute.  Democratic messages that emphasize the need to take on the corporate special interests that block change are particularly strong when contrasted against a Republican message.  Localizing the impact of the economy and talking about the real impact on families is key.  Voters do not just want to hear about the problems—they want to know what you will do about it. And they don’t want a short-term fix, they want a longer term different direction. The Economy as a Top Tier Issue Concern about the economy is as high as it has been in 15 years. Americans believe they are in a pocketbook recession and that the American Dream is becoming harder to achieve. The economy and jobs is overwhelmingly voters’ top tier concern—by more than two-to-one over the war in Iraq. Which one issue would you most like to hear the candidates for president discuss during the 2008 presidential campaign? Economy/Jobs Iraq Health care Gas/Heating oil crisis Immigration Defense/Security Other Don't know 43% 17% 9% 7% 3% 2% 13% 6% CBS News/New York Times. April 25-29, 2008. N=956 registered voters nationwide. Fueling economic pessimism, about four in five Americans believe the economy is in a recession. Do you think we are in an economic recession, or not? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 78% 17% In a recession Not in a recession LA Times/Bloomberg, May 1-8, 2008 N= 2,208 adults nationwide. Americans want a new direction. Nearly half of voters believe this economic decline is long-term. This raises concern that the American Dream is becoming harder to achieve. Do you think the United States is in a longterm economic decline, or do you think the country’s economic system is basically pretty solid? Do you think it is becoming harder or easier these days to achieve the American Dream, or is it about the same? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 49% 47% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 74% 19% 6% Easier About the same Harder Long term decline Not long term Right chart: LRP Survey. Feb. 25-28, 2008. N=800 likely reg. voters nationwide. Left chart: ABC/Washington Post. Jan. 30-Feb 2, 2008. N=1,249 adults nationwide. Two thirds of Americans say that rising gas prices have been a problem for their families, and nearly half say they have been a serious problem. Generally, costs aren’t keeping up with wages. There has been a lot of news lately about problems with the economy. As a result of recent changes in the economy, have you and your family experienced any of the following problems, or not? IF YES: Was this a serious problem, or not? Yes, Serious Problem 44% 29% 28% 19% 18% 18% 16% Yes, Problem Gas prices Good-paying jobs Health insurance Rent/Mortgage Food prices Credit card debt Losing $$ in stock market 64% 40% 42% 29% 33% 29% 35% Kaiser Health Tracking Poll. April 3-13, 2008. N=2,003 adults 18 and older. Fortunately for Democrats, independents are closer to Democrats than Republicans on most of the top economic issues. There has been a lot of news lately about problems with the economy. As a result of recent changes in the economy, have you and your family experienced any of the following problems, or not? IF YES: Was this a serious problem, or not? 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 47% 43% Dem Ind GOP 32% 27% 19% 22% 20% 12% 20% 14% 12% 30% 30% 29% 20% 5% 0% Gas prices Good-paying jobs Health insurance Rent/Mortgage Food prices Kaiser Health Tracking Poll. April 3-13, 2008. N=2,003 adults 18 and older. Messaging on the Economy Americans are particularly concerned about the influence of corporations, and are moved by arguments that say the government should work for the middle class, not the CEO’s. The issue agenda on economic issues favors the Democrats, but they will need persuasive messages to complete the sale. Next, please tell me if you think the REPUBLICAN party or the DEMOCRATIC party could do a better job in each of the following areas. Which part could do a better job of handling . . . ? 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Health care Voters also trust the Democratic candidates to handle the economy over John McCain: 32% say they trust Clinton, 26% say Obama, 23% say McCain. Bloomberg/LA Times, May 2008 56% 53% 34% GOP 49% 37% 47% 37% 43% 38% 45% 40% Dems 45% 38% 26% Economy Taxes Iraq Immigration Foreign policy Terrorist threat Pew. Feb 20-24, 2008. N=750 adults nationwide in each state Americans see the actions of corporations as barriers to achieving the American Dream. Please rate how convincing it is as a reason for why the American Dream may be more difficult to reach. 10 Corporations are breaking their promises to their workers by cutting health care and retirement benefits Corporations have gained too much power in the political system and that has hurt working people Corporations are moving millions of good paying middle class jobs overseas, leaving us with low paying service jobs 52% 8-9 73% 73% 51% 51% 69% LRP American Dream Survey. September 6-20, 2007. N= 800 registered voters nationwide. *Dark colors indicate intensity A populist argument which takes on the corporations and CEO’s matches up well against the traditional Republican talking points, while a mere criticism of those talking points is ineffective. For something different, I am going to read you two statements. After hearing both statements, please tell me which one comes closer to your own personal point of view. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -13 Dem 90% 80% 70% +26 Dem 60% 50% 37% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 34% Republican Message Democratic Criticism Republican Message Democratic Populist/Positive Lake Research Partners. February 21-24, 2008. N= 1000 adults nationwide. Statement Text [REPUBLICAN MESSAGE] • The first statement is: We know how to get this economy back on track. Lower taxes, cut wasteful government spending, get rid of bureaucratic red tape. Let the American people keep more of their money, because they know how to spend it better than the government does. Get government out of the way – free small businesses from excessive regulations and let people take control of their own lives. Promote individual initiative and entrepreneurialism, not more government handouts. Bigger government isn’t the solution. [VERSION A – DEMOCRATIC - CRITICISM] • The second statement is: We can’t fix our economy with the same policies that got us into this hole in the first place. For the past 8 years, ―lower taxes‖ has meant giving hedge fund billionaires a better tax rate than their secretaries. ―Cut spending‖ has meant cutting billions from investments here at home while spending billions rebuilding Iraq. ―Less regulation‖ has meant allowing predatory lenders to rip off homebuyers and companies to import toxic toys to threaten our children. We need to go another way. [VERSION B – DEMOCRATIC – POPULIST/POSITIVE] • The second statement is: It’s time to make the American economy work for the middle class, instead of the CEO’s and multinational corporations. We need to take on the corporate special interests that block change, make the wealthy pay their fair share, and give working Americans greater opportunities to succeed. This isn’t about small government or less taxes -- it’s about who government serves, and whether taxes are fair. We need to send leaders to Washington who are on our side and will fight for us, and throw out those who’ve forgotten why they’re there. This is particularly true for independents, who strongly support the populist argument—and are especially unlikely to be swayed by mere Democratic criticism. For something different, I am going to read you two statements. After hearing both statements, please tell me which one comes closer to your own personal point of view. Among Independents 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 90% -34 Dem 56% 80% 70% 60% 50% +31 Dem 57% 22% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 26% Republican Message Democratic Criticism Republican Message Democratic Populist/Positive Lake Research Partners. February 21-24, 2008. N= 1000 adults nationwide. Democrats win a match-up between fictional Democratic and Republican candidates, where the Democratic candidate calls for change. Pointing out that we need to rebuild America, not Iraq, adds slight intensity to the Democrat’s support. Here are two statements that could be made by two candidates running against each other. Some of this language may sound similar to the last question. Please tell me which of the following candidate statements you agree with more. 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% +13 Dem 52% 39% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% +13 Dem 50% 37% 27% 34% 30% 20% 10% 24% Republican Message 35% Republican Message Democratic Change (w/o Iraq) 0% Democratic Change (w/ Iraq) Lake Research Partners. February 21-24, 2008. N= 1000 adults nationwide. *Darker colors indicate intensity. The Democratic candidate wins the ballot among independents, and the Iraq mention in the Democratic candidate’s second profile seems to cause many of those who were voting Republican to defect from the Republican candidate to ―neither.‖ Here are two statements that could be made by two candidates running against each other. Some of this language may sound similar to the last question. Please tell me which of the following candidate statements you agree with more. Among Independents 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -7 Dem 45% 38% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% +6 Dem 39% 33% 17% 28% 17% Republican Democratic Message Change (w/o Iraq) 2% Neither 20% 10% 0% 19% 18% Neither Republican Democratic Message Change (w/ Iraq) Lake Research Partners. February 21-24, 2008. N= 1000 adults nationwide. *Darker colors indicate intensity. CANDIDATE MESSAGE TEXT [REPUBLICAN MESSAGE] • SMITH says we know how to get this economy back on track. Lower taxes, cut wasteful government spending, get rid of bureaucratic red tape. Let the American people keep more of their money, because they know how to spend it better than the government does. Get government out of the way – free small businesses from excessive regulations and let people take control of their own lives. Promote individual initiative and entrepreneurialism, not more government handouts. Bigger government isn’t the solution. [VERSION A – DEMOCRATIC – CHANGE (W/O IRAQ)] • JONES says getting this economy back on track starts with turning the page on the politics of the past and bringing people together to solve the difficult challenges that we all face – we need to make health care affordable for all, invest in renewable energy, and end our dependence on foreign oil. We need to rebuild America. We need to stop the partisan bickering and start working together, because neither side can make bold change happen by itself. This is about finding solutions to complex problems. It’s time to move America forward. [VERSION B – DEMOCRATIC – CHANGE (W/ IRAQ)] • JONES says getting this economy back on track starts with turning the page on the politics of the past and bringing people together to solve the difficult challenges that we all face – we need to make health care affordable for all, invest in renewable energy, and end our dependence on foreign oil. We need to rebuild America, not Iraq. We need to stop the partisan bickering and start working together, because neither side can make bold change happen by itself. This is about finding solutions to complex problems. It’s time to move America forward. Hot Button Economic Issues for 2008 Americans are looking for solutions on a host of economic issues. Though voters are showing particular tax sensitivity, they are very skeptical about the ability of tax breaks for businesses and rebate checks to stimulate the economy and prevent a recession. As you may know, the government is making payments to most workers of several hundred dollars and providing new tax breaks for businesses in order to stimulate the economy. Do you think this will or will not be enough to avoid or soften a recession? 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 79% 17% 4% Will Will Not Unsure ABC News/Washington Post Poll. April 10-13, 2008. N=1,197 adults nationwide. Americans are split on the idea of a second stimulus package, which some Congressional Democrats favor and Bush opposes. As you may know, some Congressional Democrats say a second economic stimulus package is necessary, which would include the extension of unemployment benefits and increased spending on bridges, roads and other infrastructure projects. President (George W.) Bush says passing another stimulus package to include these measures is too costly and unnecessary. What do you think? Do you support or oppose this second economic stimulus package? 60% 44% 42% 50% 40% 30% 14% 24% 18% Support Oppose Don't know LA Times/Bloomberg. February 21-25, 2008. N= 1408 adults nationwide. *Darker colors indicate intensity. 20% 10% 0% Voters are solidly not in favor of bailing out the banks and mortgage companies in order to limit recession. Some people say having the federal government help out banks and mortgage companies could limit any possible recession. Other people say having the federal government help out banks and mortgage companies would encourage the companies to rely too much on government assistance. What do you think? Do you think the federal government should help out banks and mortgage companies or shouldn't the federal government do this? 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Help banks 61% 30% 9% Don't help banks Don't know CBS/NY Times. March 28-April 2, 2008. N=1,368 adults nationwide. ―Investment‖ in our children is a strong concept, particularly when contrasted to our current investment of over $500 billion dollars spent in Iraq. Please tell me how convincing you find each statement as a reason to SUPPORT the plan. A ten would mean you find the statement very convincing. A zero would mean you find the statement not at all convincing. You can use any number from zero to ten. Messages in Favor of Investment Plan Misplaced priorities; 500 billion spent in Iraq, Should invest in our own people and children Upside down priorities; Handing out tax giveaways to millionaires while cutting health care for kids and seniors Middle class is squeezed; Plan will be a down payment on sustained economic growth Middle class is squeezed; Plan will get economy moving again These investments will pay off unlike other government spending % 8-10 51% 48% 42% 41% 34% Real change requires a real plan—this plan is more than a campaign promise 31% Greenberg/USAction. January 22-28, 2008. N= 600 swing likely voters in swing congressional districts, presidential battleground states and swing Senate states. The influence of Big Oil has Americans looking for energy solutions. Americans most favor developing new sources of energy, particularly solar and wind power. Now I would like to mention several proposals that have been made to help solve America's energy problems. For each one, please tell me whether you would favor or oppose that proposal. Increase spending on developing new sources of energy, such as wind and solar energy Require automakers to build cars and trucks that are more fuel-efficient, even if this raises auto prices Increase spending on finding ways to burn coal cleanly Make permitting and building new power plants easier Build additional nuclear power plants -47% -7% -4% -17% -6% -18% -7% -22% 66% 55% 47% 91% 80% 78% -7% 40% 48% 71% -25% 19% *Dark colors indicate intensity NBC News, Wall Street Journal. December 8- 12, 2006, national adult sample of 1,006. Four in five Democrats and a majority of independents believe it is the government’s responsibility to make sure everyone has adequate health care, though about two thirds of Republicans disagree. Do you think it’s the government’s responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health care, or don’t you think so? 84% 62% 54% 41% 32% 13% 4% Is the government's responsibility Is not the government's responsibility Republicans Independents Democrats Overall: -57% Government Responsibility -38% Not Government’s Responsibility 6% 6% Unsure Quinnipiac. October 23-29, 2007 N=1636 registered voters nationwide. On health care, voters react well to a guaranteed, affordable option where insurers could not deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions, reflecting concern that insurance companies currently discriminate against such patients. Very Convincing No one could deny people w/ pre-existing conditions Employers and individuals could keep current plan All plans required to provide standard package w/preventive care Guaranteed affordable private plan or public plan on sliding scale Employers required to offer all employees public and private plan Costs controlled by competition and negotiation Somewhat Convincing Mean 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.6 100% 62% 58% 53% 53% 51% 41% 20% 40% 60% 78% 76% 74% 73% 69% 60% 80% 0% Lake Research Partners. September 2007. Debate about free trade agreements like NAFTA may play a major role this election cycle, particularly in key battleground states. Close to half of voters say they have either probably or definitely been hurt financially by free trade. Thinking about the financial situation of you and your family -- do you think these free trade agreements have definitely helped, probably helped, probably hurt, or definitely hurt the financial situation of you and your family? 32% 24% 48% Probably / Definitely hurt 16% 13% 3% Definitely helped Probably helped Probably hurt Definitely hurt Neither Unsure 12% Pew Research Center/Council on Foreign Relations survey conducted by Abt SRBI. April 23-27, 2008. On taxes, framing the debate on who pays the taxes will be essential. More voters agree with a Democratic statement on cutting taxes for the middle class over a Republican statement about keeping the Bush tax cuts permanent. Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements that describe what the (2008) Democratic and Republican candidates for president have been saying. After I read these statements, please tell me which one you agree with more. 55% 41% 4% Dem Statement GOP Statement Unsure GQR/POS survey Jan 29-31, 2008. N=1,000 registered likely voters nationwide. Statement Text • Democratic Message: The Democratic candidates say, the (George W.) Bush economy has worked only for the wealthiest and CEOs (chief executive officers) while average Americans struggle with high costs for health care, gas and food. Now with the economy falling into recession, we must cut middle class taxes and expand the child tax credit, invest in job-creating transportation projects and alternative energy, extend unemployment benefits for those recently laid off and reform the mortgage market to revive the housing industry. Republican Message: The Republican candidates say that the plans the Democrats have for increasing government spending will force Democrats to raise taxes on the middle class. Republicans say that their middle class tax cuts have brought us years of growth and new jobs, and the answer to the problems in housing and financial markets is to encourage business investment to create jobs. They also support making the tax cuts permanent and new tax cuts to put money in people's pockets. Which statement do you agree with more? •