MPU September 2008 080904
Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands
Per cent quarterly averages
7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
90% 75% 50% Repo rate
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
90% 75% 50% CPI
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands
Annual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
90% 75% 50% GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. GDP
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
7
M PR 2008:2
7
M PU September 2008
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
09
10
11
Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank´s forecast. Sources:
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 5. Number of employed
Thousands of persons, seasonally adjusted data
4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 4700 4600 4500 4400 4300 4200 4100
Employed, aged 15-74 Employed, aged 16-64 M PU September 2008 M PR 2008:2
Note. Broken line represent the Riksbanks forecast.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 6. CPI
Annual percentage change
5
M PU September 2008
5
M PR 2008:2
4 3 2 1 0 -1 00
4 3 2 1 0 -1
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources:
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 7. CPI, CPIF och CPIX
Annual percentage change
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1
CPI CPIF CPIX
Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources:
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 8. Repo rate
Per cent, quarterly average
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
M PU September 2008 M PR 2008:2
Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank forecast.
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 9. Oil price, Brent crude
USD per barrel, future prices
140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Outcome Average up to and including 28-082008 (M PU september 2008) Average up to and including 27-062008 (M PR 2008:2)
Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Sources:
Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 10. Real interest rate
Per cent, quarterly average
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Outcome M PU September 2008 M PR 2008:2
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0
Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank forecast.
Source: The Riksbank
Figure 11. CPIX excluding energy and food
Annual percentage change
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5
Source: Statistics Sweden
Figure 12. Estimated gaps
Percentage deviation from the HP trend
3
GDP
3
Hours worked Employment
2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 00 01 02 03
2 1 0 -1 -2 -3
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
Note. Broken line represent the Riksbank's forecast. Sources:
Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 1. Inflation, annual average
Annual percentage change, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
2007 CPI CPIX CPIX excl. energy CPIF 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.5
2008 3.9 (3.9) 2.9 (3.0) 1.9 (2.0) 3.1 (3.1)
2009 3.2 (3.5) 2.6 (2.8) 2.0 (2.2) 2.9 (3.1)
2010 2.0 (2.3) 1.7 (2.0) 1.9 (2.2) 2.0 (2.3)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month figures
Annual percentage change, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Sep-07 CPI CPIX CPIX excl. energy CPIF 2.2 1.0 1.4 1.3
Sep-08 4.4 (4.6) 3.6 (3.8) 2.2 (2.4) 3.7 (3.9)
Sep-09 2.7 (3.0) 2.2 (2.4) 2.0 (2.2) 2.5 (2.7)
Sep-10 1.9 (2.2) 1.7 (2.0) 1.9 (2.2) 1.9 (2.2)
Sep-11 2.0 (2.1) 1.7 (1.9) 1.8 (2.0) 2.0 (2.1)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 3. Repo rate forecast
Per cent, quarterly averages, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Q 2 2008 Repo rate 4.25
Q 3 2008 4.5 (4.5)
Q 4 2008 4.7 (4.8)
Q 3 2009 4.6 (4.9)
Q 3 2010 4.3 (4.6)
Q 3 2011 4.3 (4.4)
Source: The Riksbank
Table 4. Summary of financial forecasts
Per cent, annual average, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
2007
2008
2009
2010
Repo rate 3.5 4.4 (4.4) 4.6 (4.9) 4.3 (4.6) 10-year rate 4.2 4.2 (4.3) 4.6 (4.7) 4.8 (5.0) Exchange rate, TCW index, 19 November 1992=100 125.2 123.4 (122.8) 122.2 (121.9) 121.9 (121.9) General government net lending* 3.5 (3.4) 2.9 (3.1) 1.2 (1.3) 0.6 (0.9)
* Per cent of GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 5. International conditions
Annual percentage change, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
GDP USA Japan Euro area OECD TCW-weighted World 2007 2.0 (2.2) 2.0 (2.0) 2.6 (2.6) 2.6 (2.7) 2.7 (2.8) 4.9 (4.9) 2008 1.5 (1.4) 0.9 (1.4) 1.3 (1.7) 1.7 (1.8) 1.6 (1.8) 3.9 (4.0) 2009 1.6 (1.6) 1.0 (1.5) 0.9 (1.2) 1.6 (1.8) 1.2 (1.4) 3.8 (3.9) 2010 3.0 (3.0) 1.6 (1.6) 1.9 (1.9) 2.6 (2.6) 2.1 (2.0) 4.4 (4.4)
CPI USA Japan Euro area (HICP) OECD TCW-weighted
2007 2.9 0.0 2.1 2.4 2.0
2008 4.1 (4.3) 1.4 (1.0) 3.7 (3.7) 3.6 (3.6) 3.6 (3.4)
2009 2.7 (2.8) 1.0 (1.0) 2.7 (2.7) 2.6 (2.6) 2.5 (2.5)
2010 2.2 (2.2) 0.5 (0.5) 2.3 (2.3) 2.2 (2.2) 2.1 (2.1)
Crude oil price. USD/ barrel Brent Swedish export market growth
2007 73 4.0 (3.9)
2008 114 (123) 3.9 (5.1)
2009 119 (137) 3.5 (3.9)
2010 119 (136) 5.9 (5.7)
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Table 6. GDP by expenditure
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified ( ) = MPR 2008:2
2007 Private consumption Public consumption Gross fixed capital formation Inventory investment* Exports Imports GDP GDP, calendar-adjusted 3.0 (3.0) 1.1 (1.1) 8.0 (8.0) 0.7 (0.7) 6.0 (6.0) 9.6 (9.6) 2.7 (2.7) 2.9 (2.9) 2008 1.8 (2.2) -0.7 (0.4) 3.6 (5.6) 0.1 (-0.6) 5.0 (6.6) 6.0 (6.5) 1.4 (2.1) 1.1 (1.9) 2009 1.7 (2.0) 0.7 (1.0) 1.2 (1.1) -0.3 (0.0) 2.9 (3.4) 3.6 (4.4) 0.8 (1.2) 0.9 (1.4) 2010 3.0 (3.0) 1.2 (1.2) 2.1 (2.6) 0.1 (0.1) 5.5 (5.6) 5.5 (5.6) 2.6 (2.7) 2.3 (2.4)
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 7. Production and employment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, ( ) = MPR 2008:2
2007 Population, aged 16-64 GDP, calendar-adjusted Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted Employed (EU definition) Labour force (EU definition) Unemployment (EU definition)* Labour market programmes* 0.9 (0.9) 2.9 (2.9) 3.5 (3.5) 2.5 (2.5) 1.5 (1.5) 6.1 (6.1) 1.8 (1.8) 2008 0.8 (0.8) 1.1 (1.9) 1.6 (1.3) 1.4 (1.4) 1.4 (1.2) 6.2 (5.9) 1.6 (1.8) 2009 0.4 (0.4) 0.9 (1.4) -0.6 (-0.5) -0.6 (-0.4) 0.1 (0.2) 6.8 (6.5) 1.8 (1.8) 2010 0.2 (0.2) 2.3 (2.4) -0.3 (0.0) -0.3 (-0.1) -0.2 (0.0) 6.9 (6.5) 1.9 (1.9)
*Per cent of labour force
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 8. Wages and unit labour costs for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) = MPR 2008:2
2007 Hourly wage, NM O Hourly wage, NA Employer’s contributions* Hourly labour costs, NA Productivity Unit labour cost 3.3 (3.3) 3.3 (3.3) 0.4 (0.4) 3.7 (3.7) -0.6 (-0.6) 4.3 (4.3) 2008 4.2 (4.4) 4.4 (4.7) -1.2 (-1.2) 3.2 (3.5) -0.5 (0.6) 3.7 (2.9) 2009 3.6 (3.7) 3.9 (4.0) 0.7 (0.7) 4.6 (4.7) 1.5 (1.9) 3.0 (2.8) 2010 3.7 (3.8) 4.0 (4.0) 0.1 (0.1) 4.0 (4.1) 2.6 (2.4) 1.4 (1.6)
*Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 9. Latest outcome and previous forecasts for central forecast variables
Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data ( ) = MPR 2008:2
Key figures GDP, calendar-adjusted Hours worked, calendar-adjusted Employed (EU definition) Unemployment (EU definition)* Exchange rate, TCW index, level* * CPI CPIF CPIX CPIX exkluding energy
*Percentage of labour force, seasonally adjusted data ** Outcome for quarter 3 refers to the mean value for July and August
Period Q2 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 July July July July
Outcome 0.7 2.0 1.8 6.8 123.5 4.4 3.4 3.2 2.0
M PR 2008:2 2.1 1.7 1.9 6.5 122.3 4.3 3.4 3.3 2.2
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank