The Immigration Issue and the 2008 Presidential Election by whereitsat

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									The Immigration Issue and the 2008
Presidential Election:
Exit Poll of Hispanic Voters in Miami-Dade
County, Florida and Los Angeles County,
California
  November 6, 2008
Methodology
Sample size     2,102 interviews with Latin American
                immigrant voters in Miami and Los
                Angeles

Dates of        October 23 – November 4, 2008
interviews

Margin of error 2 percentage points
Languages of    Spanish, English
interviews
                                                       2
Demographics of Latin American
Immigrant Electorate

   The Latin American immigrant
    electorate does not include U.S. born
    Hispanic voters, Cuban refugee voters,
    or Puerto Rican voters.
   The Latin American immigrant
    electorate represents 40 percent
    (approximately 4 million) of the overall
    Hispanic vote in the United States.
                                           3
The Hispanic Electorate

      3%     7%




                                       50%
40%



           US born Hispanics
           Latin American immigrants
           Cuban refugees
           Puerto Ricans
                                         4
Country of Birth
Latin American Immigrant Voters
                                 15%

                                         15%



60%
                                       10%
            South America
            Central America
            Dominican Republic
            Mexico

                                               5
Age
Latin American Immigrant Voters
             3%           12%
       12%




 34%                            39%

                  18-29
                  30-49
                  50-64
                  65-74
                  75+
                                      6
Decade of Arrival
Latin American Immigrant Voters
 60%

 50%
                            40%
 40%

 30%                                22%
                   18%
 20%      13%
                                            7%
 10%

  0%
       1960s or   1970s   1980s   1990s   2000s
        before

                                                  7
Presidential Vote

   Immigrant voters from Latin America
    voted overwhelming for Barack Obama
    for President.
   Obama had the strongest support
    among Mexicans, Dominicans, and
    young voters (ages 18-29).


                                      8
Presidential Vote
Latin American Immigrant Voters

     22%




                              78%

               Barack Obama

               John McCain

                                    9
Presidential Vote
By Country of Birth


                                  83%
   Mexico                                 Barack
              17%                         Obama


                                          John
                                 79%
Dominican                                 McCain
 Republic      21%


        0%   20%   40%   60%   80% 100%


                                               10
Presidential Vote
By Country of Birth

                                      68%
South America
                       32%
                                       70%
                                                    Barack
    Colombia
                       30%                          Obama
                                             86%
    Argentina    14%
                                                    John
                         38%
   Venezuela                         62%            McCain
                                     64%
        Peru
                        36%

            0%   20%   40%     60%     80%   100%



                                                         11
Presidential Vote
By Country of Birth

  Central                        61%
  America                39%
                                                 Barack
                    30%                          Obama
Nicaragua                             70%

                                     64%
Guatemala                                        John
                         36%
                                                 McCain
                                           75%
 Honduras          25%

        0%   20%    40%        60%    80% 100%


                                                      12
Presidential Vote
Latin American Immigrant Voters
By Age

                                    84%
18-29
         16%
                                            Barack
                            67%             Obama
30-49          33%

                            66%             John
50-64
               34%                          McCain
                        60%
 65+            40%

    0%   20%   40%    60%     80%    100%

                                                 13
Presidential Vote
The Hispanic Vote
 100%
  90%
                                      31%
  80%
  70%                                                    Barack
         67%                 61%
                                                77%      Obama
  60%              78%
  50%
  40%
                                      69%                John
  30%                                                    McCain
  20%                        38%
         33%
  10%              22%                          23%
   0%
           All     Latin    US born   Cuban     Puerto
        Hispanics American Hispanics refugees   Ricans
                 immigrants

                                                             14
The Immigration Issue

   The immigration issue is considered to
    be “very important” by more than
    three-fifths of all Latin American
    immigrant voters. This is especially
    true among those from Central
    America and the more recent arrivals.


                                         15
How important is the issue of
immigration to you and your family?
Latin American Immigrant Voters

         11%


26%



                                    63%


               Very important
               Somewhat important
               Not important

                                          16
How important is the issue of
immigration to you and your family?
By Country of Birth

   100%                 7%         5%          6%
             11%
    80%                22%         28%         29%
             26%
    60%

    40%
             63%       71%         67%         65%
    20%

     0%
            South     Central    Dominican    Mexico
           America    America     Republic

     Very important   Somewhat important     Not important

                                                             17
How important is the issue of
immigration to you and your family?
Latin American Immigrant Voters
By Decade of Arrival


  100%                               5%
                18%
   80%                              25%
                31%
   60%

   40%                              70%
                51%
   20%

    0%
           1960s or before      1990s / 2000s
    Very important   Somewhat important   Not important

                                                          18
How important is the issue of
immigration to you and your family?
By Country of Birth


  100%
             12%                                  9%
                                23%
  80%
             34%                                 40%
  60%                           34%

  40%
             54%                                 51%
  20%                           43%

   0%
         Cuban refugees     Puerto Ricans   US born Hispanics

     Very important       Somewhat important      Not important

                                                                  19
Immigration Policy

   Latin American immigrant voters are united
    on immigration policy. More than 90 percent
    support giving illegal immigrants a chance
    to legalize their status and eventually
    become citizens.
   A rise in discrimination against Hispanics
    because of the tone of the immigration
    debate contributed to the rejection of the
    Republican nominee for President.
                                              20
Which statement is closer to your
opinion?
Latin American Immigrant Voters
By Country of Birth
 100%                                            Give the majority of
                                                 the 12 million illegal
  90%                                            immigrants a
  80%                                            chance to legalize
                                                 their status and
  70%                                            eventually become
  60%                                            citizens
         93%       91%                  90%
  50%                         99%                Encourage the
                                                 majority of the 12
  40%                                            million illegal
  30%                                            immigrants in the
                                                 US to leave the
  20%                                            country
  10%
         7%        9%                   10%
   0%                         1%
         South    Central   Dominican   Mexico
        America   America    Republic

                                                                      21
Which statement is closer to your
opinion?
By Country of Birth

 100%                                          Give the majority of
                                               the 12 million illegal
  90%                                          immigrants a
                                               chance to legalize
  80%                                          their status and
  70%                                          eventually become
                                               citizens
  60%    82%          87%            85%       Encourage the
  50%                                          majority of the 12
  40%                                          million illegal
                                               immigrants in the
  30%                                          US to leave the
                                               country
  20%
  10%    18%          13%            15%
   0%
         Cuban     Puerto Ricans    US born
        refugees                   Hispanics

                                                                    22
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?
Discrimination against Hispanics in the U.S. has
increased in the last two years because of the
tone and rhetoric from the immigration debate.
Latin American Immigrant Voters


  33%




                                                67%


                        Agree

                        Disagree

                                                         23

								
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