The US Presidential and Congressional Elections Results Transition Cabinet

2009 The 2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections: Results, Transition & Cabinet Appointments David Dumke and Ashraf Swelam Egypt’s International Economic Forum January 2009 The 2008 US Presidential and Congressional Elections: Results, Transition & Cabinet Appointments1 By David Dumke2 and Ashraf Swelam3 The Presidential Elections On November 4, 2008 the United States closed a chapter of its politics and opened a new one. Americans opted for “the political road less traveled” – picking a fresh political face who promised change, rather than a seasoned veteran with an established presence in Washington. The election was about more than the match-up between Democratic candidate Senator Barack Obama and Republican candidate Senator John McCain. It was a rejection of the status quo; of President George W. Bush and the Republican Party. American voters rewarded Obama and congressional Democrats for a new set of policy options and what has been dubbed by many as “the best political organization ever”, and held the Republican Party accountable for what they perceived as economic distress, incompetent government, and international turmoil. The selection of Senator John McCain as the Republican presidential nominee was a surprise to many. McCain, who has a lengthy record of exercising political independence by breaking with his party on key issues, is not well liked by the Republican establishment. McCain’s campaign lacked a central theme, employed inconsistent tactics, and ultimately failed to distance itself – at least in the voters’ minds – from the Bush Administration. 1 This Event Report is a product of the collaboration of MidAmr Group and Egypt’s International Economic Forum Research Unit. For further information, questions, comments, suggestions, or to be removed from the list, please send us an e‐mail at: eief@eieforum.org David Dumke is Principal and co‐founder of the MidAmr Group, an American NGO based in Washington D.C. 3 2 Ashraf Swelam is Deputy Director General of Egypt’s International Economic Forum. 1 Obama, on the contrary, ran impressive campaigns for the Democratic Party’s nomination and in the general election, which skillfully organized the best grass-roots network in the history of the Democratic Party, utilized the internet and new media technology brilliantly, and raised over a billion dollars – which was more than President Bush and Senator Kerry raised in the last Presidential elections. Obama was a gifted candidate – who never appeared rattled, made few mistakes, had a disciplined message, and remained cognizant of the bigger electoral picture. As a result, President-elect Barack Obama’s victory on November 4 was decisive. With the highest voter turnout in the United States in more than 40 years, Obama defeated McCain 53-46 percent in the national vote and captured 365 electoral votes to McCain’s 173 electoral votes (only 270 were needed for victory). Obama is the first Democrat to win more than 50 percent of the national vote since President Jimmy Carter in 1976. He also won the highest percentage of any Democrat since President Lyndon Johnson’s win in 1964. Obama’s road to victory was paved by winning key swing states, including Florida and Ohio, and formerly Republican strongholds such as Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina – none of which has backed a Democratic presidential candidate in decades. More compelling is that Obama’s winning coalition was broad demographically. While his strongest supporters, by percentage, included young and minority voters, it is noteworthy that Obama won a larger percentage of male Caucasian voters than his immediate predecessors – Senator John Kerry, former Vice President Al Gore, and former President Bill Clinton. Obama will be the first African American president in the history of the United States (Vice President-Elect Joseph Biden will also be the first Roman Catholic to be elected to the job). He is the biracial product of a Kenyan father and a Caucasian American mother and will enter the White House with a clear mandate, a broad base of support, and a nation eager for strong leadership. 2 House and Senate Leadership Changes Election Results and Perhaps most importantly, Obama enters the White House with his party in firm control of Congress. Democrats picked up seats in the House of Representatives and in the Senate. It has been 20 years since either party have had such a commanding majority, and the first time the Democrats have had sole control of both the executive and legislative branches of government since 19931995. For the second election cycle in a row, House Democrats picked up a double digit number of seats. Democrats added 20+ seats in the House – with gains being made in all areas of the country, including the South. Democrats gained 30 seats and captured a majority during the 2006 election cycle. While double digit gains in successive election cycles is unusual, Democrats were expecting to pick up nearly 30+ seats in the 2008 election. Still, Democrats won a number of Republican-held open seats and picked off several Republican incumbents – including 22-year veteran Christopher Shays (R-Connecticut) and 16-year veteran Joe Knollenberg (R-Michigan). Democrats also managed to fend off aggressive challenges to many of their vulnerable members, including freshman legislators first elected in 2006. In total, they lost four incumbents, all freshmen. House of Representatives Leadership: Democrats Speaker: Nancy Pelosi (D-California) Majority Leader: Steny Hoyer (D-Maryland) Majority Whip: James Clyburn (D-South Carolina) Democratic Caucus Chair*: John Larson (D-Connecticut) ) Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee: Chris Van Hollen, Jr. (D-Maryland) The upper echelon of the Democratic House leadership roster will most likely remain intact during the 111th Congress. Pelosi, a liberal from San Francisco, will continue as Speaker for a second term. She is the first woman to serve as Speaker – the second in line of presidential succession after the Vice President – in United States history. Pelosi is a tough, partisan politician who is also from the left-leaning wing of the party. During her first term 3 as Speaker, Pelosi succeeded in passing major legislation initiatives regarding the war in Iraq, energy, and other key issues. In the 110th Congress, Pelosi centralized a great deal of power in the Speaker’s office, mostly at the expense of committee chairman. As Speaker of the House, she sets the legislative agenda for the House of Representatives. With an increased majority in the House, a Democratic-dominated Senate, and a Democratic White House, Pelosi has the potential to be the most powerful Speaker in two decades. Victories by centrist Democrats were crucial to the Party’s success in both 2006 and 2008, and the moderate (center-left) New Democrat Coalition and conservative (center) Blue Dog Caucus have the ability to have significant power in House decisions. Another key Democratic coalition is the left-leaning Congressional Black Caucus (CBC), which represents the 40 African American members of the House; Barack Obama was the sole Senate CBC member. Additionally, while moderate Democrats victories have been much more publicized, the ranks of progressive, liberal Democrats has swelled – giving the Progressive Caucus added sway. Pelosi will have to balance the Democratic coalitions in order to maintain party unity. While the Obama White House and the House Democratic leadership are generally of like-mind ideologically, it is probable that Pelosi and Obama will clash over specific aspects of the agenda – early fights could revolve around the budget, financial sector reforms, and energy policy. House of Representatives Leadership: Republicans Minority Leader: John Boehner (R-Ohio) Minority Whip: Eric Cantor (R-Virginia) Republican Conference Chair: Mike Pence (R-Indiana) Republican Policy Committee Chair: Thaddeus McCotter (RMichigan) National Republican Congressional Campaign: Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas) The House Republican Caucus is looking for a new direction. Casualties in the Republican makeover were Roy Blunt (Missouri) and Adam Putnam (Florida), the last remaining leaders to serve under former Speaker Dennis Hastert. 4 Like the Party as a whole, it is unclear what direction House Republicans will take, although Minority Leader Boehner’s postelection letter to Caucus members suggested they would play an active role in thwarting the Democratic agenda. The House Republican leadership also looks to be tracking to the right – which could draw greater contrast to the Democrats but also could alienate centrists, including the Republican Main Street Coalition (center-right), which now has fewer members. For now, however, the conservatives – many aligned with the House Republican Study Group – have the upper hand. There is much in flux, and Rep. Boehner will have his hands full simply maintaining party unity and positioning House Republicans for a comeback in 2010 or 2012. On the Senate side, Democrats picked up seven seats on November 4. One Republican-held seat remains undecided: Minnesota, where a recount will decide if Norm Coleman’s narrow 210-vote lead is upheld. Accordingly, Democrats will hold 58 seats in the upper chamber as compared to 42 for the Republicans. However, if Coleman loses, Democratic seats will be 59. Senate Leadership Majority/Democratic Majority Leader: Harry Reid (Nevada) President Pro Tempe: Robert Byrd (West Virginia) Majority Whip: Richard Durbin (Illinois) Democratic Caucus Chair: Harry Reid (Nevada) Democratic Caucus Vice Chair: Chuck Schumer (New York) Democratic Caucus Secretary: Patty Murray (Washington) Democratic Policy Committee: Byron Dorgan (North Dakota) Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee: Bob Menendez (New Jersey) Minority/Republican Minority Leader: Mitch McConnell (Kentucky) Assistant Minority Leader/Minority Whip: Jon Kyl (Arizona) Conference Chair: Lamar Alexander (Tennessee) Republican Policy Committee: John Ensign (Nevada) National Republican Senatorial Committee: John Cornyn (Texas) 5 The current Senate leadership will remain intact for the 111th Congress. The only change is the chair of the Republican Policy Committee, where John Ensign replaces Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas, who is considering running for governor in 2010. Perhaps the biggest accomplishment of Majority Leader Reid during the 110th Congress was maintaining a majority. To accomplish that feat, Reid had to rely on two independents – Bernie Sanders (Vermont) and Joe Lieberman (Connecticut) – who opted to caucus with the Democrats. The Transition President-elect Obama has made his priorities clear during this transition. He has also announced his White House staff and Cabinet at a record pace. Obama chose his Chief of Staff, U.S. Representative Rahm Emmanuel of Illinois. Mr. Emanuel was a key White House staff aide to President Clinton during his presidency and was responsible for a number of domestic initiatives, as well as leading the battle to get the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) passed. He is from Chicago, Illinois (as is Obama) and is a strong partisan who is brilliant, doesn’t suffer fools, is toughedged and decisive. He has maintained a strong working relationship with Bill and Hillary Clinton, but skillfully avoided endorsing either Obama or Clinton while they competed for the Democratic nomination. Emanuel is also credited with orchestrating the 2006 Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives and has a very strong relationship with Speaker Nancy Pelosi who chose him as the powerful head of the House Democratic Caucus – which develops strategies and messages. Prior to coming to Congress, he spent time in the private sector, where he was a successful investment banker on Wall Street. Emmanuel is a strong supporter of Israel and served as a volunteer civilian at an Israeli supply base. He also was a professional ballet dancer in New York. His strongest identifications on policy have been domestic and not foreign policy concerns. As Chief of Staff in the White House, he is expected to run a talented and disciplined staff. 6 The Obama Administration & the World President-Elect Obama’s choice of Cabinet members reflects his interest in a bipartisan group of advisors and representatives of his policies. Economic Policy Addressing the economic crisis will be the first priority on the Obama Administration’s agenda. Implementing and overseeing the massive billion bailout bill, which Congress passed in September, is the first task, but will likely be undertaken simultaneously with a number of other efforts – including regulating the financial industry and helping the ailing American auto industry, which employs 2.5 million. Obama’s economic team will also face a budget crisis. The U.S. debt has exploded during the Bush years, and the deficit was already at a record high before the massive bailout bill. The process of curing the U.S. economy promises to be lengthy and will require painful choices, which may delay, derail, or severely limit some of Obama’s campaign promises regarding health care, education, and increasing foreign assistance. Major players announced by President-Elect Obama to be part of the Economic team include: - Timothy Geitner as Secretary of Treasury. Geitner is the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He joined the Department of Treasury in 1988 and worked in three administrations for five Secretaries of the Treasury in a variety of positions. He served as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs from 1999 to 2001 under Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. He was director of the Policy Development and Review Department at the International Monetary Fund from 2001 until 2003. Before joining the Treasury, Mr. Geithner worked for Kissinger Associates, Inc. Geithner, highly respected both on Wall Street and in the Capitol's corridors, has already been playing a central role in the Treasury's and Federal Reserve's efforts to stabilize the financial system. His nomination is expected to provide the kind of continuity in the 7 Treasury's financial rescue efforts that will be welcome in the markets and among lawmakers. Lawrence Summers as Chairman of the National Economic Council. Summers is the Charles W. Eliot University Professor at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government. He is the 1993 recipient of the John Bates Clark Medal for his work in several fields of economics and was Secretary of the Treasury for the last year and a half of the Bill Clinton administration. Summers also served as the 27th President of Harvard University from 2001 to 2006. As the head of the Council, Summers will coordinate economic policy-making and economic policy advice for the president. Summers is, however, also a controversial economist, whose critics contend he supported positions that helped foster the current financial crisis. They cite, among other things, his support for the Commodity Futures Modernization Act, which allowed many derivatives - such as the credit default swaps that have rocked markets this fall - to go unregulated. The position of Secretary of Commerce is currently vacant following the decision by Governor of New Mexico Bill Richardson to bow out as a nominee. Former Dallas, Texas mayor Ron Kirk as United States Trade Representative. Kirk has a proven record of opposition to protectionism. All international trade agreements under him are however most likely to contain much stronger environmental and labor protection provisions. Christina Romer to head the White House Council of Economic Advisors. Romer is the Class of 1957 Garff B. Wilson Professor of Economics at UC Berkeley. Her early work focused on a comparison of macroeconomic volatility before and after World War II. She has also researched the causes of the Great Depression in the United States and how the US recovered from the depression. Romer showed that fiscal policy played a relatively small role in the recovery from the depression in the US, because taxes were raised in the US almost as quickly as government spending increased during the New Deal. However, accidental monetary policy played a large role in the US recovery from depression. She 8 - - - has done extensive work on fiscal and monetary policy from the Great Depression to the present. Her recent work (with her husband distinguished economist David Romer) has focused on the impact of tax policy on government and general economic growth. Melody Barnes as the Director of the White House Domestic Policy Council. Barnes was previously Executive Vice President for Policy at the Center for American Progress and led the CAP's Faith and Progressive Policy Initiative. She left the CAP in June of 2008 to work on the Obama campaign. From 1995 to 2003 Barnes served as chief counsel to Senator Edward M. Kennedy on the Senate Judiciary Committee. She previously served as the Director of Legislative Affairs for the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission and as assistant counsel to the United States House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties, where she worked with Congress to pass the Voting Rights Improvement Act of 1992. Barnes began her career as an attorney with Shearman & Sterling. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker (19791987) as the Director of the newly-created President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, the responsibilities of which will include offering the President-Elect independent nonpartisan analysis and advice to overcome the current economic crisis. After leaving the Federal Reserve in 1987, he became chairman of the prominent New York investment banking firm, J. Rothschild, Wolfensohn & Co., a corporate advisory and investment firm in New York, run by James D. Wolfensohn. In April 2004, the United Nations assigned Volcker to research possible corruption in the Iraqi Oil for Food program. As of October 2006, he became the Chairman of the Board of Trustees of the influential Washington-based financial advisory body, the Group of Thirty, and is a member of the Trilateral Commission. Mary Schapiro as the Chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Ms. Schapiro is the first woman to lead the SEC. she is the CEO of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the largest nongovernmental regulator of all securities firms doing business with the US public. In 1994, she was appointed by former 9 - - - President Bill Clinton as Chairman of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Gary Gensler as the Chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Gensler served as UnderSecretary of the US Department of Treasury (1999-2001) and as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury (1997-1999). From 1988 to 1997, Gensler was a partner of the Goldman Sachs Group. Foreign Policy On December 1, 2008, Obama announced his national security and foreign policy team. Aside from Vice-President-Elect Joseph Biden, former Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, who will expectedly play a major role in foreign policy debates, the team will, pending Senate confirmation of Secretary positions, include: - Senator Hilary Clinton as Secretary of State. - Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense. - Gov. Janet Napolitano as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. - Retired Marine Gen. Jim Jones as National Security Adviser. Jones is a former Supreme Allied Commander in Europe (2003-2007). He served as a senior aide to former Defense Secretary William Cohen. - Ambassador Susan Rice as U.S. ambassador to the UN. Rice is a close confidant of Obama. Obama’s national security team was immediately dubbed “the team of rivals.” It is a mix of people from very different political orbits who hold divergent views on national security, but are all steeped in experience. The choice of Hilary Clinton, though expected, received the greatest coverage. The junior Senator from New York brings all the credentials and the baggage of her years as a senator and first lady in her husband's administration, as well as his current globetrotting philanthropy and fundraising. In naming Clinton, Obama reached out to a former rival whom he'd battled with during the 10 Democratic primaries, during which they clashed openly over various foreign policy issues, particularly Obama's willingness to talk with foreign leaders hostile to the United States. Despite the apparent differences in the Obama national security team, there is also a streak of pragmatism. Gates is known for being results oriented, non-ideological and a low-key conciliator. Under Rice, the U.N. ambassador post will be elevated to a Cabinet rank as it was in President Clinton's administration, giving her direct access to the president. During the Democratic Party nomination and the general election, Obama has promised a new foreign policy orientation, characterized by a renewed emphasis on multilateral diplomacy. He has not ruled out acting unilaterally either in the diplomatic or military sense, but has stressed that diplomacy and dialog – even with foes such as Iran and North Korea – strengthen the United States position internationally by demonstrating goodwill and, more importantly, increasing American flexibility. For example, Obama believes the rigid position of the Bush Administration regarding Iraq prior to the U.S. invasion, and Iran currently, limits U.S. options. A summary of the key international issues include: • Iraq: Obama opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq, which was the initial impetus to his presidential campaign, and has promised to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq within a specified period. While he admits the troop “surge” policy has succeeded in increasing security in the short-term, he believes Iraq must make serious progress in the area of governance lest the situation deteriorate over time. He has repeatedly said that the U.S. is paying too high a price in blood and treasure ($10 billion per month) in Iraq. It remains to be seen just how quickly Obama will implement a withdrawal plan, or if he will use the pending Status of Forces Agreement as a rationale to reduce albeit not eliminate the U.S. military presence in Iraq. • Iran: Obama has called for dialog with Tehran without conditions, although he has also pointedly stated that the 11 military option remains on the table if Iran continues to exercise non-compliance with the international community on the nuclear issue. • Afghanistan and Pakistan: Obama believes the central focus for U.S. security and concern is with Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan, not Iraq. Obama has called for increasing troop levels in Afghanistan and said that the U.S. would take direct action against identified terrorist enclaves if Pakistan will not. It likely this position will result in increased efforts in Congress to condition or block Pakistani assistance. • Sudan: Obama has been critical of the Khartoum government, which he sees as culpable of encouraging genocide in the Darfur region. One of his top campaign and transition advisors on foreign policy is Susan Rice, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for Africa in the Clinton Administration and at the National Security Council. Rice has testified in support of authorizing U.S. intervention in Darfur. Obama has not gone that far yet. • Russia: U.S. relations with Russia, Russia’s relations with the former Soviet states, and NATO expansion are all issues that will need to be addressed early in Obama’s term. U.S.Russian relations are currently at a post-Cold War low after Russia’s military intervention in Georgia. Russia legitimately claims the U.S. has ignored its concerns regarding NATO, missile defense, and involvement in the former Soviet states, which Russia still feels are within its sphere of influence. Further confrontation could lead Russia to further explore the option of creating an anti-American alliance. • Arab-Israeli Peace Process: The peace process is one of the most difficult and controversial foreign policy challenges. Obama was an early and vocal supporter of the Iraq Study Group Report (a.k.a. “Baker-Hamilton report”) which recommended, among other things, the necessity of resolving outstanding regional conflicts as part of securing Iraq and the greater Middle East. Foremost among the report’s suggestions was urging active, continual U.S. involvement in brokering a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, on the one hand, and Israel 12 and Syria on the other. Obama has noted that the peace process is a priority and requires direct U.S. attention. He is a strong supporter of Israeli security. • Democratization and Human Rights: The Bush Administration made priorities of democracy promotion (primarily in the Middle East) and the protection of human rights. Obama will continue to promote democracy and human rights, and it is possible that the new Administration will have a showdown with a key ally/recipient of U.S. assistance. He will handle the issues of conflict differently by reaching out and looking for opportunities to dialogue, and acknowledging the greater sensitivities. • Arms Control and Non Proliferation: Obama is a firm believer in arms control, and has worked in a bipartisan fashion in the Senate, especially with Sen. Richard Lugar of Indiana on nuclear arms control, traveling with him to Russia. This will be a key issue for the Obama Administration. • Energy: Though gasoline prices have fallen dramatically since September, “energy independence for the USA” will remain a high priority for the Obama Administration. Obama has promised to help, with governmental incentives and seed money, to launch a new economic sector focusing on alternative energy – from renewable sources, ethanol, and perhaps increased nuclear power production. He has also urged the automobile industry to produce more economically friendly, fuel-efficient cars. He is not a supporter of dramatically increasing off-shore oil drilling. • Trade: In sharp contrast to President Bush, Obama is an ally of organized labor and a critic of free trade pacts without including labor and environmental protections. During the campaign Obama suggested he would renegotiate provisions in the North American Free Trade Agreement. He voted against the Central American Free Trade Agreement, and has expressed his opposition to two pending FTA’s – with South Korea and Columbia. However, Obama is not a protectionist. He supported the Peru and Oman free trade agreements and has stated he will support trade expansion and free trade – provided deals include strong and 13 enforceable provisions. Domestic Policy human rights, labor, and environmental President-Elect Obama announced pending Senate confirmation: - the following positions, Former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle as Secretary of Health and Human Services. Daschle was amongst Obama’s closest advisers during the campaign. Republican Congressman Ray Lahood as Secretary of Transportation. Lahood is an Arab-American and is the second Republican in the Obama administration, the first being Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. Democratic Congresswoman Hilda Solis as Secretary of Labor. Dr. Steven Chu as Secretary of Energy. Dr. Chu is the Director of Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, and a professor of Physics at University of California Berkeley. He is the winner of the Nobel Prize for Physics in 1997. He is one of the world’s most distinguished scientists. Lisa Jackson as the head of the Environmental Protection Agency. Ms. Jackson is the former head of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. Senator Ken Salazar as the Secretary of the Interior. He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004, and before that served as the Colorado’s Attorney General (1999-2004). Former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack as Secretary of Agriculture. As a two term Governor of a farm states, Vilsack is a vocal supporter of the farm bill and renewable sources of energy. General Eric Shinseki as Secretary of Veteran Affairs. Shinseki is a former Army Chief of Staff. - - - - - - 14