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									   United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
   Statistical Division




Collecting information on
emigration at the census
             Enrico Bisogno
Social and Demographic Statistics Section
                 UNECE
Emigration




   Can we measure emigration using the
           population census?




                UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 2
Emigration



 We can say: NO

   The census cannot be a tool to have a
        complete count of emigration




                  UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 3
Emigration



    … however the census can provide
    useful information on some groups of
                 emigrants.

   Let’s see what has been done at 2000
    Census Round and what we can learn


                 UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 4
Emigration




             What are the questions
             we are trying to answer?




                    UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 5
Emigration

  How many nationals/previous residents are living
  abroad?
  What are the main countries of destination
  How long have been emigrants absent from the country
  of origin?
  What are the main reasons for moving abroad?
  What is the social-demographic profile of the emigrants?
  Do the emigrants intend to return back?
  Do the emigrants have economic ties with the original
   household?

                        UNECE Statistical Division    Slide 6
Emigration: some countries tried….
 Georgia 2002                    Used a special module for
 Tunisia 2004                    household members who left the
 Panama 1990                     country during a period before the
                                 census


 Nepal 1981                      Used a special module for
 El Salvador 1992                household members living abroad
 Guatemala 1994                  regardless of when they left the
                                 country
 Dominican Republic 1992
 Venezuela 1990
 Moldova 2004                    Included specific questions in the
 Poland 2002                     census form, as any other
 Singapore 2000                  household member (emigrants
                                 identified in data processing)


                           UNECE Statistical Division                 Slide 7
             Focus on 4 countries


                        Georgia         Tunisia          Moldova      Poland



Date of census          Jan. 2002      April 2004        Oct. 2004   May 2002


Resident Population     4.372.000      9.911.000         3.383.000   38.230.000


Emigrants               114.000          76.000          273.000     786.000

Ratio
   emigrants/resident     2,6%            0,8%             8,1%        2,1%
   population

                            UNECE Statistical Division                    Slide 8
Outline of analysis


1.   Count of emigrants vs. population count

2.   Accuracy of emigration count

3.   Lessons learnt



                      UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 9
             Georgia (2002)
Target group:
• Previous household members who left the
    country after 1991
•   Absent from Georgia for 12 months or longer


Respondents:
   Any adult member of the household
   Relatives, neighbours, administrative authorities

                       UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 10
Georgia: census module for emigrants

Questions asked:

   Demographic-social characteristics: Relationship to
    reference person, sex, date of birth, place of birth,
    education, nationality
   Date of emigration
   Country of emigration and currently living
   Reason of emigration
   Economic support:
       family  emigrant and emigrant  family
   Intention to return

                              UNECE Statistical Division    Slide 11
                Tunisia (2004)
Target group:
Persons who at the time of the census:
 abroad for 6 months or longer

 member of the family nucleus 5 years before the

  census

Respondents:
Members of the family nucleus (spouse and
 unmarried children)

                       UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 12
Tunisia: census module for emigrants


Questions asked:

   Demographic-social characteristics: sex, date and country of birth,
    country of citizenship
   Relationship to reference person
   Date of emigration
   Reason to move
   Country of destination




                               UNECE Statistical Division         Slide 13
            Moldova (2004)

Target group:
 Permanent resident registered in the country

 Person ‘temporarily’ abroad (regardless of the

  duration and reason of absence)

Respondents:
 Household members of the absent person




                     UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 14
Moldova: questions in the census
questionnaire

Questions asked in the individual questionnaire:
   At 12:00 a.m. of census day the person was:
    o Temporarily absent, and left on _______
    o In other locality of the country
    o Abroad (please indicate the country: ________________)
   Reason:
    o For work
    o For study
    o Other reason
   Absence duration:
    o Less than one year
    o More than one year (please indicate the year when left:
      ________________)


                                UNECE Statistical Division      Slide 15
            Poland (2002)

Target group:
 Permanent resident registered in Poland

 Person ‘temporarily’ staying abroad for  2
  months (regardless of the period of stay)

Respondents:
 Family members of the absent person

 Persons living with the absentee before his/her
  departure
 Neighbours



                     UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 16
Poland: questions in the census
questionnaire

Questions asked in the individual questionnaire):
   Do you live here permanently and were you present or absent on census reference day or do you
    stay here temporarily?
     o Live permanently – present
     o Live permanently – absent stay in other place in Poland
     o Live permanently – absent stay abroad
     o Stay temporarily – arrived from other place in Poland
     o Stay temporarily – arrived from abroad
   What is the real duration of your absence or staying?
     o Up to 2 months
     o Between 2 and 6 months
     o Between 6 and 12 months
     o 12 months and more
   What is the reason of your absence or staying?
     o Education
     o Work
     o Family reasons
     o ……………………



                                        UNECE Statistical Division                       Slide 17
Two main typologies



    Georgia and Tunisia: separate module



    Moldova and Poland: questions in the
     main questionnaire



                   UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 18
Different impact on population count



    Georgia and Tunisia: emigrants
     excluded from population count

    Moldova and Poland: emigrants
     included from population count



                   UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 19
What is the good practice?


 The first goal of the census is the count
  the resident population

 …therefore practices applied in:

    Georgia and Tunisia: were OK
    Moldova and Poland: were NOT OK

                   UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 20
Accuracy of emigration count



       How to assess if these modules
     /questions were successful to count
                 emigrants?

        Data obtained from the census
       compared with data collected in
             receiving countries

                   UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 21
              Main destination countries


     Georgia               Tunisia                  Moldova                    Poland

Destination           Destination             Destination                Destination
               %                      %                           %                      %
 countries             countries               countries                  countries
  Russia      64.1%     France      42.2%       Russia           56.2%   Germany       37.4%
 Greece       16.2%      Italy      22.4%         Italy          19.4%      USA        20.1%
Germany       4.3%      Lybia        7.1%      Romania           3.9%       Italy       5.0%
   USA        3.8%    Germany        6.5%      Portugal          3.5%     Canada        3.7%




                                    UNECE Statistical Division                         Slide 22
                    Poland

                              Data from
             Census data destination country
           from Poland (1)        (2)                       (1)/(2)

Italy *             39'300                         33'800        116.3
Germany            294'300                        313'400         93.9
Canada              26'300                         66'200         39.7
USA                136'500                        212'700         64.2



Note: * data from Italy do not cover minors


                             UNECE Statistical Division               Slide 23
Moldova: Age composition of emigrants from Moldova
and citizens of Moldova residents of the Russian Federation



         25,0%


         20,0%


         15,0%
                                                                      Both sexes RF data
                                                                      Both sexes, Mld. Data
         10,0%


          5,0%


          0,0%
                 0- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60+
                 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59




                                         UNECE Statistical Division                           Slide 24
Moldova: emigrants from Moldova residing in
Italy by length of absence (Moldavian and Italian data)



        30000

        25000

        20000
                                                  Both sexes, mld. data
        15000                                     Both sexes It.data

        10000

        5000

           0
                                              period of absence/ stay
                <1    1-2   3-4       5+



                            UNECE Statistical Division                    Slide 25
Poland: emigrants by year of migration

      Year of migration, emigrants from Poland living in Germany
  25000



  20000



  15000
                                                                      German data
                                                                      Polish data
  10000



   5000



      0
          2000   1999   1998   1997    1996    1995    1994    1993



                                      UNECE Statistical Division               Slide 26
Tunisia



                            Age structure of emigrants from Tunisia

          40%
          35%
          30%
          25%
          20%
          15%
          10%
           5%
           0%




                                                                                                                             70+
                            10-14
                                    15-19
                                            20-24

                                                     25-29

                                                             30-34
                                                                     35-39
                                                                             40-44

                                                                                     45-49
                                                                                             50-54
                                                                                                     55-59
                                                                                                             60-64

                                                                                                                     65-69
                0-4
                      5-9




                            Tunisian data, males                               Tunisian data, females
                            German data, males                                 German data, females




                                                    UNECE Statistical Division                                                     Slide 27
Tunisia


                                    Data from
          Census data from         destination
             Tunisia (1)           country (2)            (1)/(2)

Italy *            17'000                     23'300                73.0
Germany             4'900                      7'800                62.8




  Note: * data from Italy do not cover minors
                             UNECE Statistical Division             Slide 28
Tunisia: looking a bit deeper…..


           Ratio between sources (1)/(2), by sex
                 Total                Males            Females

 Italy           73.0                  92.8             27.7
 Germany         62.8                  72.7             36.6




                          UNECE Statistical Division           Slide 29
Tunisia

                                Males' share of emigrants from Tunisia

          100%

          90%

          80%

          70%

          60%

          50%

          40%

          30%

          20%




                                                                                                      60+
                 0-14


                        15-19


                                  20-24


                                          25-29


                                                    30-34


                                                            35-39


                                                                      40-44


                                                                              45-49


                                                                                      50-54


                                                                                              55-59
                        Tunisian data, males                        German data, males




                                                  UNECE Statistical Division                                Slide 30
Lessons learnt
Data collection worked well for emigrants that:
   Had left the country in the years just before the census
    (up to 5 yrs.)
   Are more likely to keep close ties with the country
    (Polish data were better for Italy and Germany than for
    emigrants in the US or Canada)
   Are members of the family nucleus that is left behind
    (e.g. Tunisian males)
   Are still included in an administrative register (Poland)


                          UNECE Statistical Division    Slide 31
Lessons learnt
   The shorter is the duration the better

   The more confined is the group of emigrants to count,
    the better (ex: members of family nucleus)

   Better results expected when ties exist between
    emigrants and family members

   The modules/questions do not seem to work well to
    count a broad group of emigrants


                          UNECE Statistical Division   Slide 32
To conclude…
   It’s fundamental to keep separate the count of population from
    the count of emigrants (persons residing abroad for 1 year or
    more)

   The census cannot provide a good estimate of the total number
    of emigrants living abroad

   It’s important to identify what group of emigrants we can
    reasonably count in a census. (For example, those having left
    the country in the last years and having close family ties)

   Are the emigrants that we CAN count of interest for policy
    making?



                            UNECE Statistical Division           Slide 33
To conclude…
   An emigration module can provide important information, not on
    the total count, but on other aspects (geographical distribution of
    emigrants, information on households left behind, reason of
    migration, socio-economic characteristics)

   Accurate test of questions/module is necessary (use experience
    of other countries)

   Choice of respondents is fundamental (undercounting vs.
    overcounting)

   Use of data from receiving countries is a good source for total
    counts



                              UNECE Statistical Division           Slide 34

								
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