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					    Gauging Employment Prospects
       in New York City, 2009
New York City Employment and Training Coalition
   Annual Jobs Outlook & Trends Forum ’09

       City University of New York Graduate Center
                     February 2, 2009
                      Report Outline

• Why Gauging Employment Prospects?
• What do we need to know about the labor market?
  –   Employment and wage levels and trends
  –   New York City’s specializations and local advantages
  –   Performance during past recessions
  –   Occupational opportunities
• Conclusions and Recommendations
            Key Terms Used
• Jobs
• Wages
• NAICS
• Occupations
• SOC
• Workforce System Providers
• Sector Strategy
  Employment and Wage Levels and Growth

   Questions Addressed:             Why We Need to Know:
• What are the biggest industry   Tells us if an industry group has
  groups?                         enough jobs for a sector strategy.

• Has the number of jobs in the   Provides a foundation for
  industry group increased or     understanding future job and wage
  decreased?                      trends

• Have average real wages         If real wages grew, then either
  increased or decreased?         incumbent workers earned more or
                                  the industry group hired more
                                  higher-earning workers.
                        FIGURE 2.2 Job and Wage Growth in New York City's Largest Industry Groups,
                                                      2000-2007
              50%


              40%


                                                    5231 SECURITIES & COMMODITY
              30%                                            CONTRACTS
                                                                                           5411 LEGAL SERVICES, 16%
                                                                                                                            6221 GENERAL MEDICAL & SURGICAL
                                                                                                                                       HOSPITALS
              20%        5613 EMPLOYMENT SERVICES
Wage Growth




                                                                                                                                                    7221 FULL-SERVICE RESTAURANTS

                                                                  5311 LESSORS OF REAL ESTATE                           6241 INDIVIDUAL & FAMILY SERVICES
              10%


               0%


              -10%
                                                    9221 JUSTICE PUBLIC ORDER & SAFETY
                                                                                                                                          6113 COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES
              -20%
                                                                                                6111 ELEMENTARY & SECONDARY
                                                                                                          SCHOOLS
              -30%
                 -35%     -30%       -25%      -20%       -15%       -10%         -5%        0%          5%           10%        15%        20%        25%        30%        35%

                                                                                         Job Growth



                    Wages decreased in some of the larger industry groups that experienced
                     job growth between 2000 and 2007.
  Summary: Employment and Wages
New York City labor market highly concentrated in a
 relatively few industry groups.
Negative relationship between job and wage growth:
 industries that gained jobs, lost wages 2000-2007.
Looking at past job and wage growth, hospitals and
 legal services are the most promising industry groups
 for New Yorkers served by workforce development
 providers.
        New York City’s Specializations
     Questions Addressed:             Why We Need to Know:
•   How much of an industry      A concentration indicates that
    group’s national             the industry group has a
    employment is                specific affinity for New York
    concentrated in New York     City, with specific labor
    City?                        demands.

•   How has local employment     Relative growth indicates that
    in an industry group grown   an industry group has a local
    relative to that of the      advantage over other places
    nation?                      and is more likely to stay
                                 rooted.
         TABLE 3.1 New York City's Most Specialized Industry Groups*
                                                                    Employment          Summary: New York
   Rank
         1
                               Industry Group
              5231 SECURITIES & COMMODITY CONTRACTS
                                                                        2008
                                                                          126,576       City’s Specializations
         2    4851 URBAN TRANSIT SYSTEMS                                   52,278
         3    4243 APPAREL PIECE GOODS & NOTIONS WHSLE                     31,553
         4
         5
              5239 OTHER FINANCIAL INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES
              3152 CUT & SEW APPAREL MFG
                                                                           55,923
                                                                           19,887
                                                                                        • Employment specialized in:
         6    5311 LESSORS OF REAL ESTATE                                  80,926           – Financial investment
         7    7111 PERFORMING ARTS COMPANIES                               14,632           – Urban transit
         8    5418 ADVERTISING & RELATED SERVICES                          54,490           – Wholesale trade
         9    8131 RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS                                 18,872
        10    6241 INDIVIDUAL & FAMILY SERVICES                           117,712
        11    7121 MUSEUMS HISTORICAL SITES & SIMILAR                      18,757       • Jobs added due to “local
        12
        13
              5414 SPECIALIZED DESIGN SERVICES
              5111 NEWSPAPER/PERIODICAL/BOOK/DIRECTORY
                                                                           12,908
                                                                           52,041
                                                                                          advantage” in:
        14    8132 GRANTMAKING & GIVING SERVICES                           11,114           – Home health care
        15    5151 RADIO & TELEVISION BROADCASTING                         17,437           – Accounting and tax prep
        16    5622 WASTE TREATMENT & DISPOSAL                              10,369           – Health and personal care
        17    5121 MOTION PICTURE & VIDEO INDUSTRIES                       26,415
        18    5411 LEGAL SERVICES                                          83,568
                                                                                              stores
        19    6216 HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES                               59,114
        20    4239 MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS WHSLE                       18,097       • “Most specialized” industry
        21    5191 OTHER INFORMATION SERVICES                              15,652
        22    5616 INVESTIGATION & SECURITY SERVICES                       45,625         groups are:
        23    8129 OTHER PERSONAL SERVICES                                 13,067           – Newspaper, book publishing
        24    4811 SCHEDULED AIR TRANSPORTATION                            25,089
        25    9221 JUSTICE PUBLIC ORDER & SAFETY                           98,565
                                                                                            – Home health care
* Among industry groups employing 10,000 or more as measured by location quotient,          – Museums and historical
a measure of employment specialization.                                                       sites
SOURCE | National data from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
New York City data from the New York State Department of Labor, Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages, 2007.
  Performance During Past Recessions
   Questions Addressed:            Why We Need to Know:
• Which industry groups
  weathered the last two
  recessions better than others?
• Which industry groups are the
  most/least exposed to the
                                   Indicators of job
  finance and insurance sector?    stability in 2009.
• Which industry groups had the
  most/fewest unemployment
  claims in 2008?
                 FIGURE 4.1 Employment Performance* of Large Industry Groups During 1989 -1992
                                                 Recession
  60%
                                                                                 AVERAGE YEAR-YEAR EMPLOYMENT
  50%                                                                            CHANGE (EQUALS 0)
                                                                                 WOMEN'S AND MISSES' OUTERWEAR
  40%
                                                                                 HOSPITALS
  30%
                                                                                 HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES
  20%
                                                                                 SERVICES ALLIED TO MOTION PICTURES
  10%
                                                                                 LIFE INSURANCE
   0%
                                                                                 HEALTH SERVICES
  -10%
                                                                                 MOTION PICTURE PRODUCTION AND
  -20%                                                                           SERVICES
                                                                                 INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY SERVICES
  -30%
                                                                                 INSURANCE CARRIERS
  -40%
                                                                                 ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY
             1988-89          1989-90           1990-91          1991-92
                                                                                 SCHOOLS
SOURCE | County Business Patterns, 1989-1992.
*Employment performance is defined as the percentage above/below the overall average year-to-year employment
change for a particular industry group.


   •     This graph shows the large industry groups that retained more jobs during
         the 1989-92 recession than the economy as a whole.
    TABLE 4.3B Selected New York City Industry Groups that are Least Exposed to the
    Finance Sector, 2007
    AMUSEMENT PARKS, ARCADES, AND GAMBLING                MEDICAL AND DIAGNOSTIC LABS AND OUTPATIENT AND
    INDUSTRIES                                            OTHER AMBULATORY CARE SERVICES
    ANIMAL (EXCEPT POULTRY) SLAUGHTERING,                 MUSEUMS, HISTORICAL SITES, ZOOS, AND PARKS
    RENDERING, AND PROCESSING
    BREAD AND BAKERY PRODUCT MANUFACTURING                NURSING AND RESIDENTIAL CARE FACILITIES
    CHILD DAY CARE SERVICES                               OFFICES OF PHYSICIANS, DENTISTS, AND OTHER HEALTH
                                                          PRACTITIONERS
    COMMUNITY FOOD, HOUSING, AND OTHER RELIEF             OTHER CUT AND SEW APPAREL MANUFACTURING
    SERVICES, INCLUDING REHABILITATION SERVICES
    CONFECTIONERY MANUFACTURING FROM PURCHASED PERSONAL CARE SERVICES
    CHOCOLATE
    COOKIE, CRACKER, AND PASTA MANUFACTURING              PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATION MANUFACTURING
    DEATH CARE SERVICES                                   RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS
    ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS                      SOFTWARE, AUDIO, AND VIDEO MEDIA REPRODUCING
    HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES                             SOUND RECORDING INDUSTRIES
    HOSPITALS                                             TOBACCO PRODUCT MANUFACTURING
    INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY SERVICES                        VETERINARY SERVICES
    SOURCE | New York State Department of Labor, IMPLAN (input-output matrix) direct and regional transaction
    "producer" coefficients, 2007.

•      The finance and insurance sector is the epicenter of the current recession.
       According to this measure, these industry groups are the least dependent on
       the sector and most likely to retain jobs in the coming year.
Summary: Performance During Past Recessions

 According to our measures, the safest harbors during
  recessions are in health and social assistance and education
  services.
 Information sector industry groups, such as audio and video
  recording and production and motion picture-related services
  may be somewhat more stable than most too.
 Providers should:
   – Position themselves to help individuals coming out of recession-prone
     industry groups.
   – Be prepared to support any jobseekers going into recession-prone
     industries.
        Occupational Opportunities
  Questions Addressed:           Why We Need to Know:
• Which occupations are      To understand patterns of labor
  most common overall?       demand by skill types
                             To identify opportunities for
                             people at various levels of
                             educational preparation
• How do these occupations   Prepares us with wage levels to
  pay?                       expect at entry, median, and
                             upper levels

• Which industry groups      To understand other industry
  employ many people in      groups where skills might be
  the most common            transferable
  occupations?
TABLE 5.3 Characteristics of the Most Common Occupations* in New York City, 2007
                                                                                Number of
                                                                                  Jobs                                              Hourly Wage         Growth Since 2000




                                                                                                                                                                  -25 to -50%


                                                                                                                                                                                    0 to -24%
                                                                                                              50-100K




                                                                                                                                                                                                                25-50%
                                                                                    10-25K


                                                                                                 25-50K




                                                                                                                                                         < -50%
                                                                                                                        100K+




                                                                                                                                                                                                    1-24%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             >50%
                                           Occupation                                                                           Entry   Median Upper                                                                                  Primary Industry Group
                Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters                                                                        $15.03 $27.19 $45.79                                                                               Construction
 Less than HS




                Carpenters                                                                                                    $14.16 $25.28 $45.76                                                                               Construction
                Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
                machine operators                                                                                               $15.17 $21.33 $23.88                                                                                Postal service
                Landscaping and groundskeeping workers                                                                          $8.05 $12.67 $21.81                                                                    Landscaping services
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Securities, commodities, funds,
                                                                                                                                                                              
                Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents                                                    $20.31 $49.94 $70.00+                                                                      trusts
                First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and                                                                                                                     
                extraction workers                                                                                              $22.57 $37.69 $58.05                                                                                Construction
                First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics, installers, and
                                                                                                                                                                                                          
                repairers                                                                                                       $21.85 $33.27 $47.49                                                                                Bus service and urban transit
                Real estate sales agents                                                                                       $16.31 $30.66 $70.00+                                                                   Real estate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Wired telecommunications
                                                                                            
 HS or GED




                Sales representatives, services, all other                                                                      $15.36 $28.31 $51.73                                                                       carriers
                Advertising sales agents                                                                                       $14.50 $26.47 $49.26                                                                              Advertising and related services
                First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating                                                                                                                                                         Drycleaning and laundry
                                                                                                                                                                               
                workers                                                                                                         $14.71 $26.27 $43.33                                                                                services
                First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative                                                                                                 
                support workers                                                                                                 $17.17 $26.22 $40.44                                                                                Banking and related activities
                Construction laborers                                                                                          $10.84 $24.65 $36.94                                                                               Construction
                Executive secretaries and administrative assistants                                                          $16.00 $22.96 $34.82                                                                               Legal services
                Bus drivers, transit and intercity                                                                             $13.83 $22.11 $27.58                                                                    Bus service and urban transit


 •                   Many occupations require less than a 4-year college degree and pay above
                     $12/hour at the median. Some other training though. A few primary industries
                     stand out for having a variety of large employment occupations.
  Summary: Occupational Opportunities
 Promising occupations:
   – Require additional training, apprenticeship, or certification: skilled
     trades, nurses, commercial drivers, and managers and supervisors.
   – Are concentrated in: health care and social assistance (hospitals), food
     and accommodation (restaurants), retail (grocery stores), finance and
     insurance (banks), and professional services (law firms).
   – Are in public sector agencies: postal carriers, teachers’ aides, and bus
     drivers.
 Providers should:
   – Be familiar with full range of occupations available to jobseekers
   – Know the occupational mix of their industries and help jobseekers find
     jobs in more than one industry group
   – Focus training opportunities on promising occupations
   – Help jobseekers find public agencies and labor groups that provide
     training opportunities
 Summary Findings

 Most are large industry
  groups
 Several were unstable
  during previous recessions
 Several are dependent on
  finance and insurance
  sector.
 Traditional recession-
  resistant industry groups
  also did better on 2008
  unemployment.
 Home health care most
  highly ranked
Summary: Implications for Workforce Providers
Every industry group has strengths and weaknesses:
 providers need to weigh differences in job availability,
 job stability, wages, and skills transferability and
 opportunities for advancement.
Providers should continue to build long-term
 relationships with employers:
   – Tailor strategies to the industry group’s specific needs.
   – Seek labor market intelligence about how this
     restructuring recession may change labor demands.
For recession-prone industry groups:
   – Prepare for out-placement
   – Develop high-quality training strategies matched with
     employer demand
Contact Information:

Lesley Hirsch
nyclmis@gc.cuny.edu
212.817.2031
Lea Kilraine
lkilraine@sbs.nyc.gov
212.513.6451


Gauging Employment Prospects in New York City, 2009
is available for download at:
www.urbanresearch.org
www.nyc.gov/wib
Take part in the discussion, email your questions to:

jobsforum@nycetc.org

				
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