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Gauging Employment Prospects
in New York City, 2009
New York City Employment and Training Coalition
Annual Jobs Outlook & Trends Forum ’09
City University of New York Graduate Center
February 2, 2009
Report Outline
• Why Gauging Employment Prospects?
• What do we need to know about the labor market?
– Employment and wage levels and trends
– New York City’s specializations and local advantages
– Performance during past recessions
– Occupational opportunities
• Conclusions and Recommendations
Key Terms Used
• Jobs
• Wages
• NAICS
• Occupations
• SOC
• Workforce System Providers
• Sector Strategy
Employment and Wage Levels and Growth
Questions Addressed: Why We Need to Know:
• What are the biggest industry Tells us if an industry group has
groups? enough jobs for a sector strategy.
• Has the number of jobs in the Provides a foundation for
industry group increased or understanding future job and wage
decreased? trends
• Have average real wages If real wages grew, then either
increased or decreased? incumbent workers earned more or
the industry group hired more
higher-earning workers.
FIGURE 2.2 Job and Wage Growth in New York City's Largest Industry Groups,
2000-2007
50%
40%
5231 SECURITIES & COMMODITY
30% CONTRACTS
5411 LEGAL SERVICES, 16%
6221 GENERAL MEDICAL & SURGICAL
HOSPITALS
20% 5613 EMPLOYMENT SERVICES
Wage Growth
7221 FULL-SERVICE RESTAURANTS
5311 LESSORS OF REAL ESTATE 6241 INDIVIDUAL & FAMILY SERVICES
10%
0%
-10%
9221 JUSTICE PUBLIC ORDER & SAFETY
6113 COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES
-20%
6111 ELEMENTARY & SECONDARY
SCHOOLS
-30%
-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Job Growth
Wages decreased in some of the larger industry groups that experienced
job growth between 2000 and 2007.
Summary: Employment and Wages
New York City labor market highly concentrated in a
relatively few industry groups.
Negative relationship between job and wage growth:
industries that gained jobs, lost wages 2000-2007.
Looking at past job and wage growth, hospitals and
legal services are the most promising industry groups
for New Yorkers served by workforce development
providers.
New York City’s Specializations
Questions Addressed: Why We Need to Know:
• How much of an industry A concentration indicates that
group’s national the industry group has a
employment is specific affinity for New York
concentrated in New York City, with specific labor
City? demands.
• How has local employment Relative growth indicates that
in an industry group grown an industry group has a local
relative to that of the advantage over other places
nation? and is more likely to stay
rooted.
TABLE 3.1 New York City's Most Specialized Industry Groups*
Employment Summary: New York
Rank
1
Industry Group
5231 SECURITIES & COMMODITY CONTRACTS
2008
126,576 City’s Specializations
2 4851 URBAN TRANSIT SYSTEMS 52,278
3 4243 APPAREL PIECE GOODS & NOTIONS WHSLE 31,553
4
5
5239 OTHER FINANCIAL INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES
3152 CUT & SEW APPAREL MFG
55,923
19,887
• Employment specialized in:
6 5311 LESSORS OF REAL ESTATE 80,926 – Financial investment
7 7111 PERFORMING ARTS COMPANIES 14,632 – Urban transit
8 5418 ADVERTISING & RELATED SERVICES 54,490 – Wholesale trade
9 8131 RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS 18,872
10 6241 INDIVIDUAL & FAMILY SERVICES 117,712
11 7121 MUSEUMS HISTORICAL SITES & SIMILAR 18,757 • Jobs added due to “local
12
13
5414 SPECIALIZED DESIGN SERVICES
5111 NEWSPAPER/PERIODICAL/BOOK/DIRECTORY
12,908
52,041
advantage” in:
14 8132 GRANTMAKING & GIVING SERVICES 11,114 – Home health care
15 5151 RADIO & TELEVISION BROADCASTING 17,437 – Accounting and tax prep
16 5622 WASTE TREATMENT & DISPOSAL 10,369 – Health and personal care
17 5121 MOTION PICTURE & VIDEO INDUSTRIES 26,415
18 5411 LEGAL SERVICES 83,568
stores
19 6216 HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES 59,114
20 4239 MISCELLANEOUS DURABLE GOODS WHSLE 18,097 • “Most specialized” industry
21 5191 OTHER INFORMATION SERVICES 15,652
22 5616 INVESTIGATION & SECURITY SERVICES 45,625 groups are:
23 8129 OTHER PERSONAL SERVICES 13,067 – Newspaper, book publishing
24 4811 SCHEDULED AIR TRANSPORTATION 25,089
25 9221 JUSTICE PUBLIC ORDER & SAFETY 98,565
– Home health care
* Among industry groups employing 10,000 or more as measured by location quotient, – Museums and historical
a measure of employment specialization. sites
SOURCE | National data from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
New York City data from the New York State Department of Labor, Quarterly Census of
Employment and Wages, 2007.
Performance During Past Recessions
Questions Addressed: Why We Need to Know:
• Which industry groups
weathered the last two
recessions better than others?
• Which industry groups are the
most/least exposed to the
Indicators of job
finance and insurance sector? stability in 2009.
• Which industry groups had the
most/fewest unemployment
claims in 2008?
FIGURE 4.1 Employment Performance* of Large Industry Groups During 1989 -1992
Recession
60%
AVERAGE YEAR-YEAR EMPLOYMENT
50% CHANGE (EQUALS 0)
WOMEN'S AND MISSES' OUTERWEAR
40%
HOSPITALS
30%
HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES
20%
SERVICES ALLIED TO MOTION PICTURES
10%
LIFE INSURANCE
0%
HEALTH SERVICES
-10%
MOTION PICTURE PRODUCTION AND
-20% SERVICES
INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY SERVICES
-30%
INSURANCE CARRIERS
-40%
ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY
1988-89 1989-90 1990-91 1991-92
SCHOOLS
SOURCE | County Business Patterns, 1989-1992.
*Employment performance is defined as the percentage above/below the overall average year-to-year employment
change for a particular industry group.
• This graph shows the large industry groups that retained more jobs during
the 1989-92 recession than the economy as a whole.
TABLE 4.3B Selected New York City Industry Groups that are Least Exposed to the
Finance Sector, 2007
AMUSEMENT PARKS, ARCADES, AND GAMBLING MEDICAL AND DIAGNOSTIC LABS AND OUTPATIENT AND
INDUSTRIES OTHER AMBULATORY CARE SERVICES
ANIMAL (EXCEPT POULTRY) SLAUGHTERING, MUSEUMS, HISTORICAL SITES, ZOOS, AND PARKS
RENDERING, AND PROCESSING
BREAD AND BAKERY PRODUCT MANUFACTURING NURSING AND RESIDENTIAL CARE FACILITIES
CHILD DAY CARE SERVICES OFFICES OF PHYSICIANS, DENTISTS, AND OTHER HEALTH
PRACTITIONERS
COMMUNITY FOOD, HOUSING, AND OTHER RELIEF OTHER CUT AND SEW APPAREL MANUFACTURING
SERVICES, INCLUDING REHABILITATION SERVICES
CONFECTIONERY MANUFACTURING FROM PURCHASED PERSONAL CARE SERVICES
CHOCOLATE
COOKIE, CRACKER, AND PASTA MANUFACTURING PHARMACEUTICAL PREPARATION MANUFACTURING
DEATH CARE SERVICES RELIGIOUS ORGANIZATIONS
ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY SCHOOLS SOFTWARE, AUDIO, AND VIDEO MEDIA REPRODUCING
HOME HEALTH CARE SERVICES SOUND RECORDING INDUSTRIES
HOSPITALS TOBACCO PRODUCT MANUFACTURING
INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY SERVICES VETERINARY SERVICES
SOURCE | New York State Department of Labor, IMPLAN (input-output matrix) direct and regional transaction
"producer" coefficients, 2007.
• The finance and insurance sector is the epicenter of the current recession.
According to this measure, these industry groups are the least dependent on
the sector and most likely to retain jobs in the coming year.
Summary: Performance During Past Recessions
According to our measures, the safest harbors during
recessions are in health and social assistance and education
services.
Information sector industry groups, such as audio and video
recording and production and motion picture-related services
may be somewhat more stable than most too.
Providers should:
– Position themselves to help individuals coming out of recession-prone
industry groups.
– Be prepared to support any jobseekers going into recession-prone
industries.
Occupational Opportunities
Questions Addressed: Why We Need to Know:
• Which occupations are To understand patterns of labor
most common overall? demand by skill types
To identify opportunities for
people at various levels of
educational preparation
• How do these occupations Prepares us with wage levels to
pay? expect at entry, median, and
upper levels
• Which industry groups To understand other industry
employ many people in groups where skills might be
the most common transferable
occupations?
TABLE 5.3 Characteristics of the Most Common Occupations* in New York City, 2007
Number of
Jobs Hourly Wage Growth Since 2000
-25 to -50%
0 to -24%
50-100K
25-50%
10-25K
25-50K
< -50%
100K+
1-24%
>50%
Occupation Entry Median Upper Primary Industry Group
Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters $15.03 $27.19 $45.79 Construction
Less than HS
Carpenters $14.16 $25.28 $45.76 Construction
Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing
machine operators $15.17 $21.33 $23.88 Postal service
Landscaping and groundskeeping workers $8.05 $12.67 $21.81 Landscaping services
Securities, commodities, funds,
Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents $20.31 $49.94 $70.00+ trusts
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and
extraction workers $22.57 $37.69 $58.05 Construction
First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics, installers, and
repairers $21.85 $33.27 $47.49 Bus service and urban transit
Real estate sales agents $16.31 $30.66 $70.00+ Real estate
Wired telecommunications
HS or GED
Sales representatives, services, all other $15.36 $28.31 $51.73 carriers
Advertising sales agents $14.50 $26.47 $49.26 Advertising and related services
First-line supervisors/managers of production and operating Drycleaning and laundry
workers $14.71 $26.27 $43.33 services
First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative
support workers $17.17 $26.22 $40.44 Banking and related activities
Construction laborers $10.84 $24.65 $36.94 Construction
Executive secretaries and administrative assistants $16.00 $22.96 $34.82 Legal services
Bus drivers, transit and intercity $13.83 $22.11 $27.58 Bus service and urban transit
• Many occupations require less than a 4-year college degree and pay above
$12/hour at the median. Some other training though. A few primary industries
stand out for having a variety of large employment occupations.
Summary: Occupational Opportunities
Promising occupations:
– Require additional training, apprenticeship, or certification: skilled
trades, nurses, commercial drivers, and managers and supervisors.
– Are concentrated in: health care and social assistance (hospitals), food
and accommodation (restaurants), retail (grocery stores), finance and
insurance (banks), and professional services (law firms).
– Are in public sector agencies: postal carriers, teachers’ aides, and bus
drivers.
Providers should:
– Be familiar with full range of occupations available to jobseekers
– Know the occupational mix of their industries and help jobseekers find
jobs in more than one industry group
– Focus training opportunities on promising occupations
– Help jobseekers find public agencies and labor groups that provide
training opportunities
Summary Findings
Most are large industry
groups
Several were unstable
during previous recessions
Several are dependent on
finance and insurance
sector.
Traditional recession-
resistant industry groups
also did better on 2008
unemployment.
Home health care most
highly ranked
Summary: Implications for Workforce Providers
Every industry group has strengths and weaknesses:
providers need to weigh differences in job availability,
job stability, wages, and skills transferability and
opportunities for advancement.
Providers should continue to build long-term
relationships with employers:
– Tailor strategies to the industry group’s specific needs.
– Seek labor market intelligence about how this
restructuring recession may change labor demands.
For recession-prone industry groups:
– Prepare for out-placement
– Develop high-quality training strategies matched with
employer demand
Contact Information:
Lesley Hirsch
nyclmis@gc.cuny.edu
212.817.2031
Lea Kilraine
lkilraine@sbs.nyc.gov
212.513.6451
Gauging Employment Prospects in New York City, 2009
is available for download at:
www.urbanresearch.org
www.nyc.gov/wib
Take part in the discussion, email your questions to:
jobsforum@nycetc.org
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