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					    Southern African Power Pool
              www.sapp.co.zw


    POWER SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN
            THE SADC

     World Consumer Rights Day Celebrations

                Harare, Zimbabwe
                 30 March 2006
1                                   SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
    CONTENTS
    1. STATUS OF POWER SUPPLY
    2. REASONS FOR INCREASE IN POWER DEMAND
    3. SAPP RECOMMENDATIONS
    4. SELECTED REGIONAL PROJECTS
    5. CONCLUSION




2                                   SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
          Status of Power Supply in the SADC

                 TABLE-1: SAPP POWER SUPPLY AND DEMAND
                              Installed      Net      2004 Peak
     Country        Utility   Capacity    Capacity     Demand
                                [MW]        [MW]        [MW]
    Angola       ENE             742          590        317
    Botswana     BPC             132          120        402
    Lesotho      LEC             72           70         70
    Malawi       ESCOM           305          261        271
    Mozambique EDM               307
                 HCB            2,075        2,250       274
    Namibia      NamPower        393          390        470
    South Africa Eskom          42,011      36,208      34195
    Swaziland    SEB             51           50         172
    Tanzania     TANESCO         591          480        508
    DRC          SNEL           2,442        1,170       993
    Zambia       ZESCO          1,632        1,630      1295
    Zimbabwe     ZESA           1,990        1,825      2069

           TOTAL             52,743        45,044              41,036


3                                               SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
    Table-2: Generation Distribution by Country




                                     80.4% South Africa
                                     5.0% Mozambique
                                     4.1% Zimbabwe
                                     3.6% Zambia
                                     2.6% DRC
                                     4.4% Rest




4                                     SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
    Table-3:   Generation Mix




                            74.3% Coal
                            20.1% Hydro
                            4.0%        Nuclear
                            1.6%        Gas/Diesel




5                           SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
        Reasons for Increase in Power Demand in the SADC

        Power demand in the SAPP has been increasing at a
         rate of about 3% per year caused by:
           i.     Increased economic activity
           ii.    Establishment of energy intensive users
           iii.   Non-economic tariffs
           iv.    Electrification programs
           v.     No significant investment in generation in the last
                  10-years.

        If nothing is done (no new generation project) then, it
         is anticipated that in the year 2007, the SAPP will run
         out of generation surplus capacity.
        Challenge for SAPP is to keep pace with rising
         demand.
6                                                     SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
                                  SAPP Generation Vs SAPP Load Forecast
                                     Net Capacity                  Peak Demand
                    60,000

                    50,000
    Capacity [MW}




                    40,000

                    30,000

                    20,000

                    10,000

                       -
                           2003     2005      2007          2009       2011             2013

                                                     Year

                    The SAPP Planning Data is indicating that SAPP runs out
                    of generation surplus capacity after the year 2007.
7                                                                             SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
                   SAPP Recommendations

       Political support to the SAPP initiatives on generation
        expansion is required.

       Short-term generation facilities must be constructed
        by 2007, if system reliability is to be maintained.

       The SADC region should come up with ways of marketing
        and attracting investment into generation & transmission
        projects.

       Create suitable environment for investment in member
        countries by addressing regulation and cost reflective
        tariffs.
8                                                  SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
                            Selected Regional Projects
        SAPP Projects currently in progress
                                                                                               Estimated
                                                                     Expected      Feasibility  Project
                                                Capacity           Commissioning     S tudy    Cost US D
    Country        Project Name                  [MW]      Type       Year         Complete       [M]


    South Africa   ESKOM_ Camden                   380      Coal       2005           Yes              80
    South Africa   ESKOM_ Arnot                     20      Coal       2005           Yes             4.4
    Zambia         Kafue Upper expand               30     Hydro       2005           Yes             20
    Zambia         Kariba North Refurbishment       30     Hydro       2005           Yes             20
    South Africa   ESKOM_ Arnot                     40      Coal       2006           Yes              25
    South Africa   ESKOM_ Camden                   380      Coal       2006           Yes              80
    Swaziland      Maguga                           20     Hydro       2006           Yes             30
    Zambia         Kafue Upper expansion            30     Hydro       2006           Yes             20
    Zambia         Kariba North Refurbishment       30     Hydro       2006           Yes             20
    Angola         Capanda Units 3 & 4             260     Hydro       2007           Yes             344
    Angola         Lobito                           83      Gas        2007           Yes               -
    South Africa   ESKOM_ Arnot                     40      Coal       2007           Yes              25
    South Africa   ESKOM_ Camden                   570      Coal       2007           Yes             120
    South Africa   ESKOM_ Grootvlei                188      Coal       2007           Yes             105
    South Africa   Open Cycle Gas Turbine         1050     OCGT        2007           Yes             477
    Zambia         Kafue Upper expansion            30     Hydro       2007           Yes             20
    Zambia         Kariba North Refurbishment       30     Hydro       2007           Yes             20
       TOTAL                                      3,211                                                1,410

9                                                                              SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
     Rehabilitation Projects


                                                              Expected Feasibility Estimated
                                          Capacity           Commission  Study     Project Cost
     Country      Project Name             [MW]      Type     ing Year  Complete    USD [M]
     DRC          Inga-1 Refurbish          110      Hydro      2007         Yes                78
     Zimbabwe     Hwange Rehabilitation     80        Coal      2007         Yes                30
     DRC          Inga-2 Refurbish          486      Hydro      2008         Yes               160
     DRC          Koni                      42       Hydro      2008         Yes                15
     Malawi       Tedzani 1 &2              40       Hydro      2008         Yes                12
     Angola       Gove                      60       Hydro      2008         Yes                58
     DRC          Nzilo                     27       Hydro      2009         Yes                28
     DRC          Nseke                     62       Hydro      2009         Yes                56
                  Mavuzi & Chicamba
     Mozambique                             34       Hydro      2009         Yes                30
     DRC          Zongo                     24       Hydro      2010         Yes                20
     DRC          Mwadingusha               62       Hydro      2010         Yes                30
     DRC          Sanga                      8       Hydro      2010         Yes                 6
       TOTAL                               1048                                                523

10                                                                       SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
          Country Capacity Contribution
 REHABILITATION & SHORT TERM PROJECTS    GENERATION PROJECTS IN PROGRESS

      Country     Capacity, MW    %         Country       Capacity, MW               %
       Angola          60        1.1%       Angola             343                  7.4%

      Botswana        400        7.6%      South Africa       4098                 88.3%
                                            Swaziland          20                   0.4%
        DRC           834        15.8%
                                             Zambia           180                   3.9%
       Malawi         104        2.0%
                                             TOTAL            4641
     Mozambique       912        17.3%
      Namibia         800        15.2%
      Tanzania         60        1.1%
       Zambia         1080       20.5%
      Zimbabwe        1015       19.3%
      TOTAL           5265




11                                                             SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
                                Committed - Rehabilitation - Short Term
          72000
          68000
          64000
          60000
     MW



          56000
          52000
          48000
          44000
          40000
          36000
                  2005




                                        2008


                                                       2010




                                                                                          2015


                                                                                                        2017




                                                                                                                             2020
                         2006

                                 2007


                                               2009




                                                                     2012

                                                                            2013

                                                                                   2014



                                                                                                 2016


                                                                                                               2018

                                                                                                                      2019
                                                              2011


                                                                       Year
             Capacity Planned                         Peak Demand with DSM + Reserve




12                                                                                                      SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
                                                                                                              H                  Kenya
            Gabon         Congo
                                        Dem Rep of Congo                                                                         Nairobi
                                                                       Rwanda
              Brazzaville                                              Burundi
                                  Kinshasa
                      H
                                                                                                                  Tanzania
                                                                                                                   H


                                                                                                                             H
                                                                                                                                           Dar es Salaam
                                                                                                                       H
           Luanda
                          H



                                  Angola                                                      Malawi

                                                     Zambia                                                        H
                                                                                                                           Mozambique
                          H                                                          Lilongwe                     H

                                                      Lusaka            H      H                  H
                                                                                                                   H

                                                                                                          T
                                                                               H
                 H
                      H
                                                           H
                                                               T
                                                                   H
                                                                           Harare
                                                                                                  H
                                   Namibia                                                            H

                                                                               Zimbabwe
                                               Botswana
                                                                   T
                                                           H

                              Windhoek                             T

                                             Gaborone
SOUTHERN                                            Pretoria
                                             Johannesburg                   T
                                                                               T
                                                                                 T TT

                                                                              T T T
                                                                                  T
                                                                                    TT
                                                                                          H
                                                                                              T
                                                                                               Maputo
                                                                                         Mbabane
AFRICAN                       T

                                                                       H
                                                                           P
                                                                                     Swaziland

                                                          Lesotho
GRID                               South Africa       H


                                                                                                                  Hydro station
                                                                                                          H

                                    N                                                                     P
                                                                                                                  Pumped storage scheme
                     Cape Town           P                                                                T
                                                                                                                  Thermal Station
13                                                                                                                SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL
                            Conclusions

     The challenges for the SAPP are:
         Reverse the diminishing generation surplus capacity the
          region is experiencing.


         Creation of an enabling environment for investors to
          invest in generation and transmission infrastructure.


         Embracing of the principle of cost reflective tariffs and
          the adoption of regulatory principles to enhance those
          tariffs.




14
            THANK YOU                                SOUTHERN AFRICAN POWER POOL

				
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