NOAA Intra-Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (ISIP) and Climate

NOAA Intra-Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (ISIP) and Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA) Jin Huang NOAA Office of Global Programs November 6, 2003 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico NOAA ISIP Goal • Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of climate forecasts and application products to manage risks and opportunities of climate impacts due to intraseasonal to interannual climate variations Threats Assessments Forecasts Outlook Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Guidance Protection of Life & Property Minutes Flood Mitigation & Navigation Hours Days Space Operation 1 Week Forecast Lead Time 2 Week Transportation Fire Weather Hydropower Agriculture Benefits Reservoir Control Recreation Months Initial Conditions Seasons Years Ecosystem Energy Health Commerce State/Local Planning Environment Seamless Suite of Forecasts Boundary Conditions Forecast Uncertainty Integrated ISIP Program Structure 1. Model Development (High-end centers: EMC, GFDL, GMAO, NCAR) 2. Experimental Prediction (Incl. Multi-model Ens. Fcst System Development) 3. Applications and Products Development 4. Research – CPPA CPPA Overview • CPPA is a merged program from NOAA’s existing PACS and GAPP programs • Rational for merging the two programs - PACS and GAPP share common objective, but have different focus areas - CPPA integrates the expertise in ocean, atmosphere and land from CLIVAR and GEWEX communities CPPA Goal • CPPA goal is to improve intraseasonal to interannual climate forecasts and to interpret the climate forecasts for better water resource management CPPA Scientific Objectives • Improving understanding and model simulation of ocean, atmosphere and land-surface processes through observations, data analysis, and modeling studies • Determining the predictability of climate variations on intra-seasonal to interannual time scale for the Americas. • Advancing the NOAA operational climate forecasts through a Core Project at NWS supported by the CPPA program. • Providing decision support through interpretation of climate forecasts for water resource management applications. CPPA Major Research Activities Enhanced Observations and Field Studies Data Analysis (Cronin) (Berbery) CPPA Major Research Activities Model Development • Coupled landatmosphere models • Coupled oceanatmosphere models Z.Yang Dynamic Vegetation: • need validation data • need more modeling studies (current operational models don’t have interactive vegetation) CPPA Major Research Activities CPPA NOAA Core Project …. a pathway from research to operations • NCEP • NWS/OH THE EMERGING NCEP ENSEMBLE SEASONAL PREDICTION SYSTEM with downscaling to NWS/OHD hydrology models (operational and experimental). GLOBAL COUPLED ATMOS-LAND MODEL 30 - 100 km GLOBAL COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOS LAND MODEL 100 - 500 km RUNOFF SNOWPACK STREAMFLOW SOIL MOIST REGIONAL UNCOUPLED LAND-HYDRO MODEL 1-10 km GLOBAL OCEAN 4DDA SST PREDICTION GLOBAL LAND 4DDA GLOBAL ATMOS 4DDA REGIONAL LAND 4DDA PRECIP, Ts, LAND-SFC FORCING REGIONAL ATMOS 4DDA GENERAL CIRCULATION LATERAL B.C. REGIONAL COUPLED ATMOS-LAND MODEL 10 - 30 km (after Schaake) REGIONAL REANALYSIS (NCEP) High Resolution, Dynamically Consistent Historical NA Analysis for: 1) Diagnostics Studies 2) Prediction Model Initialization and Validation. NCEP/ETA MODEL 32 KM Spatial Resolution; 3 Hourly Temporal Resolution; 1979 through 2002. (REGIONAL REANALYSIS DOMAIN) A SYSTEM WILL BE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE PRODUCING THESE FIELDS BEYOND 2002 CPPA Research Activities • Observation and field campaign e.g., NAME, EPIC, SALLJEX • Data Analysis • Process and predictability studies -ocean, atmosphere, and land • Modeling studies and model improvement •Coupled land-atmosphere models •Coupled ocean-atmosphere models • Data Assimilation (land, ocean) • Regional Reanalysis • Water resource applications CPPA Future Integrated Strategies • Consolidate the common thrusts e.g. warm season precipitation initiative, regional climate modeling, drought • Improve program mapping e.g., increasing the temporal and spatial coverage, advancing modeling of O-A-L coupled system, combining remote and local forcing • Assemble climate process teams of observationists, model developers, diagnosticians to fully exploit existing data sets for evaluating model deficiencies, designing guiding plans for future campaigns CPPA Implementation Timeline • FY03 (Conceptual Phase) – NOAA’s ISIP formulated – PACS and GAPP science advisory bodies informed and engaged • FY04 (Transition Year - Planning Phase) – Merger of PACS and GAPP initiated with joint budget and management team – PACS and GAPP projects under FY04 AO reviewed and awarded – OGP develops NOAA CPPA implementation strategy document – Single umbrella CPPA AO issued for FY05 • FY05 (Program Launch) – CPPA officially established with proposal review and project awards – First NOAA CPPA Annual Report issued NOAA/CPPA Programmatic Structure Science and Implementatio n Plans US CLIVAR Pan-America GEWEX Americas Prediction Project Science Advisory Groups Agency Implementation -ATM -OCE Funding QuickTime™ and a Photo - JPEG decom press or are needed to s ee this picture. Funding CPPA -Hydro -GEWEC CPPA and NAME • NAME is the first field campaign supported by CPPA – PACS and GAPP started the joint call for proposals for the Warm Season Precipitation Initiative in FY01 • The CPPA interest in NAME is to improve intraseasonal to interannual climate forecasts for the warm season • CPPA will continue to support diagnostic and modeling studies in the Warm Season Precipitation Initiative after NAME