Space Allocation Not An Easy Decision by ars16282

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									   Space Allocation

Not An Easy Decision


      Dr Mike Brumm
 Extension Swine Specialist
  University of Nebraska
    Is Space Allocation
the next Welfare Criteria?
68 kg   0.74 m2/pig
        Pork Board Funding
• Science of Space Allocation

• Economic Impact of Space Allocation
                    Expressing space allowance
          • Conventional methods of area/pig fail to account
            for pig size

          • Allometric relationship of volume (body weight)
            to surface area (floor space) should apply across
            wide range of weights


                               A = k * BW(.667)

Slide courtesy Harold Gonyou
123 kg, 0.58 m2   270 lb, 6.3 ft2
  k = 0.024         k = 0.153
123 kg, 0.74 m2   270 lb, 8.0 ft2
   k = 0.030        k = 0.191
102 kg 0.76 m2/pig   225 lb 8.2 ft2/pig
    k = 0.035             k=0.223
Application of broken line analysis to assess floor space
requirements of nursery and grow/finish pigs
expressed on an allometric basis

H.W. Gonyou                         J.J. McGlone
M.C. Brumm                          M. Meunier-Salaun
E. Bush                             R.B. Morrison
P. Davies                           H. Spoolder
J. Deen                             P.L. Sundberg
S.A. Edwards                        A.K. Johnson
T. Fangman
                                               ADG Response to 'k'
                                          full slats constant group size
                   104%


                   100%
ADG % of Control




                   96%


                   92%


                   88%


                   84%
                      0.020   0.022   0.024   0.026   0.028   0.030   0.032   0.034    0.036   0.038   0.040   0.042   0.044   0.046   0.048   0.050

                                                                                 'k'
                                               ADG Response to 'k'
                                          full slats constant group size
                   104%


                   100%
ADG % of Control




                   96%


                   92%


                   88%

                                                                                        k = 0.0340
                   84%
                      0.020   0.022   0.024   0.026   0.028   0.030   0.032   0.034    0.036   0.038   0.040   0.042   0.044   0.046   0.048   0.050

                                                                                 'k'
Slide courtesy Harold Gonyou
Slide courtesy Harold Gonyou
              Critical ‘k’ for ADG
              broken line analysis
Data Set                      ADG      ADF
Full slat – equal group       0.0340   0.0336
Full slat – variable group*   0.0336   0.0336
Part slat – equal group       0.0327   0.0358
Part slat – variable group*   0.0317   0.0357

Nursery – variable group      0.0333   0.0345


Gonyou et al, 2005
 For each 3% change in space,
daily gain and daily feed intake
    change 1% for full slats.

There is no predictable impact of
 space allocation on feed/gain.
         Critical Space at
‘k’=     0.0336            0.2145
  kg     m2/pig        lb    ft2/pig

  100    0.725         220    7.83

 109.1   0.768         240    8.29

 120.5   0.821         265    8.89
       What is the critical wt?
• Sales wt of all pigs?
  – Easiest to obtain


• Average wt when first pig removed?
  – Survey suggests 90/10 top/dump barns
        Weight Distribution in healthy pig populations



      Standard                      Liveweight Percentile
CV    Deviation   10     20    30     40      50        60     70       80       90
12%      21.6     152   162   169    175    180      185     191     198      208
12%      24.0     169   180   187    194    200      206     213     220      231
12%      26.4     186   198   206    213    220      227     234     242      254
12%      28.8     203   216   225    233    240      247     255    264      277
12%      31.2     220   234   244    252    260      268     276     286      300
12%      33.6     237   252   262    271    280      289     298     308      323
Modeling of pig populations                                         Mean wt, top 20% today                    278.8
                                                                    Mean wt next 40% 2 wks                    271.4
Mean Wt          240 Wt at first pull                               Final wt bottom 40% less 5% 3 wks         253.0
CV                12 %
ADG              1.7 Gain of pigs remaining after first pull        Average Sale wt of all pigs               266.1


No or %        Z     todays wt 2 wk wt 3 wk wt                 %        Z     todays wt 2 wk wt   3 wk wt
        1     -2.327     173.0     196.8   208.7               51       0.025     240.7     264.5     276.4
        2     -2.055     180.8     204.6   216.5               52        0.05     241.4     265.2     277.1
        3      -1.88     185.9     209.7   221.6               53       0.075     242.2     266.0     277.9
        4      -1.75     189.6     213.4   225.3               54         0.1     242.9     266.7     278.6
        5     -1.645     192.6     216.4   228.3               55       0.115     243.3     267.1     279.0
        6     -1.555     195.2     219.0   230.9               56        0.15     244.3     268.1     280.0
        7     -1.475     197.5     221.3   233.2               57       0.178     245.1     268.9     280.8
        8     -1.405     199.5     223.3   235.2               58       0.202     245.8     269.6     281.5
        9      -1.34     201.4     225.2   237.1               59       0.227     246.5     270.3     282.2
       10     -1.281     203.1     226.9   238.8               60       0.253     247.3     271.1     283.0
       11     -1.224     204.7     228.5   240.4               61       0.258     247.4     271.2     283.1
       12     -1.175     206.2     230.0   241.9               62       0.305     248.8     272.6     284.5
       13     -1.125     207.6     231.4   243.3               63       0.332     249.6     273.4     285.3
       14      -1.08     208.9     232.7   244.6               64       0.358     250.3     274.1     286.0
       15     -1.037     210.1     233.9   245.8               65       0.386     251.1     274.9     286.8
       16     -0.995     211.3     235.1   247.0               66       0.411     251.8     275.6     287.5
       17     -0.953     212.6     236.4   248.3               67        0.44     252.7     276.5     288.4


                                             mbrumm1@unl.edu
       What might affect ‘k’?
• Mixing/movement
  – Wean-finish vs Nursery moved to finisher


• Group size

• Genetics
       Interaction of Space and Sex
         Wean-Finish - Nebraska
                      6.3      8.0       B        G
Wt In                 11.0     11.0     10.9     11.1
Wt out               269.0a   276.4b   279.1c   266.3d
ADG                  1.54a    1.58b    1.60c    1.52d
F/G                   2.56     2.56     2.60     2.52
Backfat               .76      .84      .85      .75
a,bP<.05; c,dP<.01




Final ‘k’            0.0235 0.0300
   7% change in space = 1% change in ADG wean-finish
   Univ Illinois, 2005 Wean-Finish
      Pigs/pen:     22          27           32
        Ft2/pig:    8.4         6.9         5.8
       M2/pig:       .78        .64          .54
      Final ‘k’    0.0317     0.0267       0.0231     Linear
8 wk wt, lb         77.2        76.3        75.5          0.08
24 wk wt, lb       268.0       257.6       248.8      <.001

0-8 wk ADG, lb      1.12        1.11        1.09          0.07

0-24 wk ADG, lb     1.51        1.45        1.40      <.001


      4% change in space = 1% change in ADG wean-finish
         What doesn’t affect ‘k’?
• Diet
  – Lysine
  – Energy
  – Paylean


• Sex
   Economics of Pig Space:
 Analysis of Production Systems
               And
      Marketing Impacts


M. Brumm              B. Buhr
D. Holtkamp           J. Kliebenstein
 Current Industry Space Allocations

• Fully slatted finishing
  – Survey – 7.2 ft2/pig – US average
  – Range – 6.7 to 8.0 ft2/pig
  – Sale Wt = 265 lb

• Nursery
  – My estimate – 3.0 ft2/pig
  – Exit Wt = 55 lb
  Impact of Space on ADG
Wt, lb    Adequate    5% ADG reduction
         ‘k’=0.2145
 50          2.9            2.5
 100        4.6             3.9
 150        6.1             5.2
 200        7.3             6.2
 250        8.5             7.2
 Financial Impact of Guidelines
• 3 options
  – Sell at lighter weight
     • Pull to meet ‘k’
  – Decrease pig flow
     • Sell SEW
     • Decrease breeding herd
  – Build more finishing space
           Base Assumptions
• Tyson Grid
   – $38 base ($51.35 carcass)
• ADG
   – 1.75 lb/d
• 7.17 ft2/pig at sale of first pig
   – 240 lb barn mean wt
• 2600 sows = 17 finishing barns
• 262.4 lb avg sale wt
     Change Marketing Method
• Market 1, 2 or 4 pigs/pen at target ‘k’


      Base         1            2           4
Wt    262.4        258.4        257.5       255.3


ROE
change             -20.6%       -27.7%      -49.2%
       Change number of pigs
• Sell excess wean pigs or reduce breeding
  herd
  – Space = 8.25 ft2/pig in existing finishing


• Change in ROE
     Sell excess               -39.06%
     Reduce breeding herd       -91.70%
              Add facilities
• Build 3 more finishing barns
    Space = 8.25 ft2/pig


• Change in ROE
     -9.47%
Input                                A
   Number of pens                   40
   Pen size (sqft)                 190
   Pigs/pen                         25
   Space/pig (sqft)                7.6
   Total pigs placed/turn         1000

  Initial weight, lb                 52
  Final weight, lb                  265
  ADG                              1.70
  Market period, d                   21
  Days to clean, d/turn               7
  F/G                              2.90
  Vet/med, $/hd                  $1.50
  Death Loss, decimal %          3.00%
  Feeder Pig price, $/hd        $52.00
  Net Market price, $/cwt       $45.00
  Feed price,$/t               $140.00
  Contract fee              $36,000.00

Turns/year                        2.56
Pigs purchased                    2556
Pigs sold                         2479

Income                       $295,674
Expenses
   Pigs                      $132,919
   Feed                      $106,399
   Vet/med                     $3,834
   Contract fee               $36,000
   Total Expenses            $279,152
  Net                         $16,522

  Difference versus A
                                          Managem ent Option

Input                                A               B
   Number of pens                   40              40
   Pen size (sqft)                 190             190
   Pigs/pen                         25              23
   Space/pig (sqft)                7.6             8.3
   Total pigs placed/turn         1000             920

  Initial weight, lb                 52              52
  Final weight, lb                  265             265
  ADG                              1.70            1.75
  Market period, d                   21              19
  Days to clean, d/turn               7               7
  F/G                              2.90            2.90
  Vet/med, $/hd                  $1.50           $1.50
  Death Loss, decimal %          3.00%           2.75%
  Feeder Pig price, $/hd        $52.00          $52.00
  Net Market price, $/cwt       $45.00          $44.90
  Feed price,$/t               $140.00         $140.00
  Contract fee              $36,000.00      $36,000.00

Turns/year                        2.56            2.64
Pigs purchased                    2556            2430
Pigs sold                         2479            2363

Income                       $295,674        $281,132
Expenses
   Pigs                      $132,919        $126,337
   Feed                      $106,399        $101,458
   Vet/med                     $3,834          $3,644
   Contract fee               $36,000         $36,000
   Total Expenses            $279,152        $267,439
  Net                         $16,522          $13,692

  Difference versus A                        ($2,829)
                                          Managem ent Option

Input                                A               B            C
   Number of pens                   40              40           40
   Pen size (sqft)                 190             190          190
   Pigs/pen                         25              23           27
   Space/pig (sqft)                7.6             8.3          7.0
   Total pigs placed/turn         1000             920         1080

  Initial weight, lb                 52              52           52
  Final weight, lb                  265             265          265
  ADG                              1.70            1.75         1.65
  Market period, d                   21              19           24
  Days to clean, d/turn               7               7            7
  F/G                              2.90            2.90         2.90
  Vet/med, $/hd                  $1.50           $1.50        $1.50
  Death Loss, decimal %          3.00%           2.75%        3.25%
  Feeder Pig price, $/hd        $52.00          $52.00       $52.00
  Net Market price, $/cwt       $45.00          $44.90       $45.10
  Feed price,$/t               $140.00         $140.00       $140.00
  Contract fee              $36,000.00      $36,000.00    $36,000.00

Turns/year                        2.56            2.64         2.46
Pigs purchased                    2556            2430         2662
Pigs sold                         2479            2363         2575

Income                       $295,674        $281,132      $307,795
Expenses
   Pigs                      $132,919        $126,337      $138,418
   Feed                      $106,399        $101,458      $110,443
   Vet/med                     $3,834          $3,644       $3,993
   Contract fee               $36,000         $36,000       $36,000
   Total Expenses            $279,152        $267,439      $288,854
  Net                         $16,522          $13,692       $18,941

  Difference versus A                        ($2,829)       $2,420
                                          Managem ent Option

Input                                A               B            C           D
   Number of pens                   40              40           40           40
   Pen size (sqft)                 190             190          190          190
   Pigs/pen                         25              23           27           27
   Space/pig (sqft)                7.6             8.3          7.0          7.0
   Total pigs placed/turn         1000             920         1080         1080

  Initial weight, lb                 52              52           52           52
  Final weight, lb                  265             265          265          265
  ADG                              1.70            1.75         1.65         1.65
  Market period, d                   21              19           24           27
  Days to clean, d/turn               7               7            7            7
  F/G                              2.90            2.90         2.90         2.90
  Vet/med, $/hd                  $1.50           $1.50        $1.50        $1.72
  Death Loss, decimal %          3.00%           2.75%        3.25%        4.00%
  Feeder Pig price, $/hd        $52.00          $52.00       $52.00       $52.00
  Net Market price, $/cwt       $45.00          $44.90       $45.10       $45.10
  Feed price,$/t               $140.00         $140.00       $140.00      $140.00
  Contract fee              $36,000.00      $36,000.00    $36,000.00   $36,000.00

Turns/year                        2.56            2.64         2.46         2.44
Pigs purchased                    2556            2430         2662         2635
Pigs sold                         2479            2363         2575         2530

Income                       $295,674        $281,132      $307,795     $302,347
Expenses
   Pigs                      $132,919        $126,337      $138,418     $137,030
   Feed                      $106,399        $101,458      $110,443     $108,272
   Vet/med                     $3,834          $3,644       $3,993       $4,533
   Contract fee               $36,000         $36,000       $36,000      $36,000
   Total Expenses            $279,152        $267,439      $288,854     $285,835
  Net                         $16,522          $13,692       $18,941      $16,512

  Difference versus A                        ($2,829)       $2,420         ($10)
Success is the ability to go from
failure to failure without losing
        your enthusiasm.


       Winston Churchill

								
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