EMERGING PROTECTIONISM by kzl15411

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									      EMERGING PROTECTIONISM


 The Goldilocks global economy

  -   Strong growth, globalisation, liberalisation, benign
      geopolitics
               Growth in World Trade, FDI and GDP -
                    current US$ (1980-2008)
       Index
3500

                          Index World GDP             Index World Trade             Index World FDI

3000



2500



2000



1500



1000



 500



   0
       1980     1982   1984   1986     1988   1990   1992    1994     1996   1998   2000     2002     2004   2006   2008
  Average Applied Tariff Rates in Developing
   Countries - Unweighted in % (1981-2005)
              Average Applied Tariff Rates in Developing Countries
                         Unweighted in % (1981-2005)
35,0



30,0



25,0



20,0



15,0



10,0



 5,0



 0,0
       1981      1985           1990            1995           2000   2005
                              World Ranking in
                        Ease of Doing Business (2010)
              Ease of   Starting a    Dealing   Employing   Registering   Getting   Protecting   Paying   Trading   Enforcing   Closing a
               Doing    Business       with      Workers     Property     Credit    Investors    Taxes    Across    Contracts   Business
             Business                Construc                                                             Borders
                                       tion
                                      Permits



US              4           8          25          1            12          4           5         61        18         8           15

Japan          15          91          45          40           54          15         16         123       17         20          1

Singapore       1           4           2          1            16          4           2          5        1          13          2

H-Kong          3          18           1          6            75          4           3          3        2          3           13

N- Zealand      2           1           5          15           3           4           1          9        26         10          17

S-Africa       34          67          52         102           90          2          10         23       148         85          76

Denmark         6          28          10          9            47          15         27         13        6          28          7

Brazil         129        126          113        138          120          87         73         150      100        100         131

Russia         120        106          182        109           45          87         93         103      162         19          92

India          133        169          175        104           93          30         41         169       94        182         138

Indonesia      122        161          61         149           95         113         41         126       45        146         142

China          89         151          180        140           32          61         93         130       44         18          65

S-Africa       34          67          52         102           90          2          10         23       148         85          76
      EMERGING PROTECTIONISM


 Global economic outlook 2009

  -   Sharp contractions: growth and deglobalisation,
      no decoupling

  -   Asia/China-led recovery
     Global Indicators IMF (October 09)
                 World Real GDP Growth
8

7              World             Trend (1970-2006)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2
     Global Indicators IMF (October 09)
                             Real GDP Growth

10
        Advanced Economies        Emerging and developing Economies
8


6


4


2


0


-2


-4


-6
Future Indicators IMF (April 09)
Future Indicators IMF (April 09)
                                     World Trade
30




20




10




 0
 2000M1   2001M1   2002M1   2003m1   2004m1   2005m1   2006m1   2007m1   2008m1   2009m1




-10




-20                  Trade value              CPB trade volume index



-30
  Global Indicators IMF (July 09)
                                          World Trade Volume Goods and Services
15




10




 5




 0
  70

         72

                74

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 -5




                              World Goods and Services                                      Trend (1970-2006)
-10




-15
                FDI inflows, global and by groups of economies, 1980-2008
                                      (billions of dollars)




Source: UNCTAD FDI/TNC database (www.unctad.org/fdistatistics) and UNCTAD Secretariat estimates.
                 Global FDI inflows, 2005-2008, and projections for 2009–2011




Source. UNCTAD estimates, based on the results of WIPS.
Note: Estimates for 2009, 2010 and 2011 are based on the results of WIPS, taking into account data on the first quarter of 2009 for FDI flows
and the first half of 2009 for cross-border M&As for the 2009 estimates. For example, for 2010, total FDI inflows in 2008 were split into five
groups corresponding to the share of respondents’ forecast for 2010 (grouped by large increase, increase, no change, decrease and large
decrease (figure I.26)). Next, FDI inflows of each group in 2010 were calculated by applying the average of respondents’ forecasts of their
investments for their group. Finally, the results were added up to a single forecast value for 2010. The same methodology was applied for 2009
and 2011. In addition to the baseline scenario, two less likely scenarios: 25% upper and lower ranges to the respondents’ forecasts average of
their investments for their group are included in the figure.
      EMERGING PROTECTIONISM


 Global policy outlook, 2009

  -   Big shift in policies and ideas against free markets and in favour of
      government intervention
  -   Huge bank bailouts, unorthodox monetary policies and fiscal
      stimulus
  -   Spillover to protectionism; parallels with the 1970s, not 1930s
        Emerging Protectionism
 Emerging protectionism
  -   Tariffs
  -   Import licensing
  -   Financial mercantilism
  -   Subsidies
  -   “Buy national” measures
  -   Foreign-investment restrictions
  -   Migrant labour
  -   Anti-dumping duties/other trade remedies
  -   Standards protectionism, including climate change
  -   China-bashing
         Emerging Protectionism

• Threatens to deepen and prolong crisis and deglobalisation

• Muted protectionism due to market/globalisation linkages,
  not policy coordination and international institutions
Measures implemented since the first crisis-related G20 summit in November 2008,
Totals for all jurisdictions and for the G20 members
                                                  All jurisdictions                        G20 nations

                Statistic                                  Total except unfair                   Total except unfair
                                          Total           trade and safeguards     Total        trade and safeguards
                                                             investigations                        investigations

    Total number of
    measures in GTA
                                          280                         231          172                   133
    database

    Total number of
    measures coded green                   40                         36            27                   24

    Total number of
    measures coded amber                   48                         30            24                   11

    Total number of
    measures coded red                    192                         165          121                   98

    Total no. (%) of 4-digit tariff
    lines affected by almost
                                       1157 (95%)              1141 (94%)        926 (76%)          921 (76%)
    certainly discriminatory
    measures


    Total no. (%) of 2-digit sectors
    affected by almost certainly        63 (80%)                63 (80%)         58 (73%)            58 (73%)
    discriminatory measures


    Total no. of trading partners
    affected by almost certainly          217                         203          206                   193
    discriminatory measures
Top 10 biggest targets of discriminatory measures

                                                                       Number of pending
                   Number of                 Number of trading
                                                                       measures which, if
Target             discriminatory measures   partners imposing
                                                                       implemented, would harm
                   imposed on target         discriminatory measures
                                                                       target too


1. China                      99                        56                       77

2. USA                        86                        49                       19

3. Germany                    84                        30                       30

4. France                     78                        29                       24

5. Japan                      78                        46                       23

6. Belgium                    78                        28                       21

7. UK                         72                        29                       20

8. Netherlands                71                        28                       18

9. Italy                      70                        25                       23

10. Sweden                    70                        23                       21
Which countries have inflicted the most harm?
Note: There is no single metric to evaluate harm. Different policy measures affect different numbers of products, economic
sectors, and trading partners. GTA reports four measures of harm.
                                                       Metric, Country in specified rank, Number


                                                  Ranked by the no. (%) of   Ranked by the               Ranked by the
                        Ranked by
         Rank                                     tariff lines (product      percentage of sectors       number of trading
                        number of (almost
                                                  categories) affected by    affected by (almost         partners affected by
                        certainly) discriminatory
                                                  (almost certainly)         certainly) discriminatory   (almost certainly)
                        measures imposed
                                                  discriminatory measures    measures                    discriminatory measures


                                                         Ukraine 733                 Algeria 54
           1                    Russia (20)                                                                    China (163)
                                                            (60%)                      (68%)
                                                          China 329                 Ukraine 38
           2                  Germany (15)                                                                      India (141)
                                                            (27%)                      (48%)
                                                         Ecuador 312                Ecuador 30
           3                                                                                                 Indonesia (124)
                                India and                   (25%)                      (37%)
                           Indonesia (10 each)          Indonesia 311              Indonesia 25
           4                                                                                                     UK (123)
                                                            (25%)                      (31%)
                                                          Russia 258
           5                                                                       Belarus and                  USA (120)
                                                            (21%)
                             Italy, Spain, and                                    China 23 (29%)
           6                                           India 210 (17%)                                         Russia (117)
                                   UK (9)
                                                          Japan 133                 Mexico 22
           7                                                                                                  Germany (116)
                                                            (11%)                     (28%)
                                                                                   Germany 21
           8                     China (8)              UK 131 (11%)                                           Spain (108)
                                                                                      (27%)
           9                   Argentina (7)            USA 124 (10%)             Russia and USA               France (106)
          10                     Japan (7)             Belarus 74 (6%)               19 (24%)                  Poland (100)
Top 10 implemented measures used to discriminate against foreign commercial interests
since the first G20 crisis meeting


                                                          Bail out/state aid measure; 62


                          10                              Tariff measure; 31

                      3                                   Trade defence measure (AD,CVD,
              3                                           safeguard); 28
                                              31
                                                          Public procurement; 12
          4
                                                          Non tariff barrier (not otherwise
      4                                                   specified); 11
                                                          Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measure;
                                                          10
      5
                                                          Export subsidy; 9

          5                                               Migration measure; 7

                                                          Export taxes or restriction; 6
                  6
                                         15
                                                          Import ban; 6
                               14
                                                          Other; 20
      EMERGING PROTECTIONISM

 Global trade policy outlook: the key players
  -   USA
  -   EU
  -   China
  -   Japan
  -   India
  -   Russia and Brazil
  -   G20
  -   WTO and Doha Round
      EMERGING PROTECTIONISM

 Geopolitical outlook

-- Declining USA but no substitute for US leadership; rising
   powers still highly constrained; talking-shop multilateralism;
   dangers of a vacuum

								
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