COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Proposed Amendments to the 2008-2010 Biennial Budget
Richard D. Brown Secretary of Finance
February 14, 2009
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
FY2008 General Fund Revenues Finished $15.9 Million Above Forecast
• The FY 2008 forecast was the second most accurate estimate of the last 25 years, trailing only the FY 2000 forecast. A slowdown in growth for most major revenue sources during the second half of the year was offset by a large surplus in net corporate income tax receipts.
•
2
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Summary of FY 2008 Revenue Collections
(millions of dollars)
Major Source Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Net Individual Sales Corporate Wills (Recordation) Insurance All Other Revenue Total Revenues ABC Profits Lottery Profits Sales Tax (0.25%) Transfers Total Transfers Total General Fund $ $ $ Forecast $ 9,010.9 2,870.8 1,710.4 10,171.3 3,096.4 699.1 495.5 418.4 870.4 15,751.1 34.3 462.2 228.8 96.6 821.9 16,573.0 $ $ $ Actual $ 8,933.6 2,861.2 1,679.9 10,114.8 3,075.5 807.9 456.3 396.9 915.5 15,767.0 36.1 458.2 226.7 91.6 812.5 16,579.5 $ $ $ Variance Dollars Percent $ (77.3) (0.9) % (9.6) (0.3) (30.5) (1.8) (56.5) (0.6) (20.9) 108.8 (39.2) (21.5) 45.1 15.9 1.8 (4.0) (2.1) (5.0) (9.4) 6.5 (0.7) 15.6 (7.9) (5.1) 5.2 0.1 % 5.2 (0.9) (0.9) (5.2) (1.1) % 0.0 % Annual Growth 4.3 % 2.8 7.7 3.3 0.9 (8.2) (21.7) 3.1 3.8 1.3 % 31.0 5.4 0.7 (30.9) (0.9) % 1.2 %
3
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Based on the Deteriorating Economic and Revenue Trends, the Governor Accelerated the Fall Forecasting Process
• The October revenue forecast was the outcome of a consensus process that included:
– A meeting of housing industry experts – August 21
– A meeting of consumer spending/auto industry experts – September 5 – Governor’s Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) – September 10 – Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) – September 23
4
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
The Fall Forecasting Process Resulted in a Revenue Shortfall of $2.5 Billion
•
The GABE unanimously approved the August standard outlook for fiscal year 2009 and the majority approved fiscal year 2010. However, business members of GACRE were split on the forecasts, with four supporting the standard outlook, four supporting the alternative lower growth scenario, and one choosing “standard minus”. Based on all comments, the October revenue forecast incorporated elements of both the standard and alternative economic forecasts. It indicated a revenue shortfall of $2.5 billion.
•
•
5
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Due to Continued Economic Contraction a Reassessment of the October Revenue Forecast Was Done for December
• The following meetings of the Governor's advisory groups were held:
– Governor’s Advisory Board of Economists (GABE) – November 14 – Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates (GACRE) – December 2
•
The baseline economic outlook presented to the GABE and GACRE was based on the Global Insight November 2008 standard U.S. forecast. (A four-quarter national recession ending in June 2009.)
The GABE unanimously approved the adoption of this outlook, with some members noting that the outlook could be somewhat optimistic. A majority of the GACRE members supported using the November forecast update, with a few cautioning that there could be further weakness in the economy. The consensus was that further reductions in the revenue forecast were warranted in December given that economic conditions had deteriorated.
6
• •
•
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
The Baseline December General Fund Revenue Forecast Results in a Shortfall of $2.9 Billion
General Fund Revenue Adjustments $ in Millions FY2009 October Revenue Reforecast November Revenue Reforecast Technical Changes Transfers: ABC Profits Sales Tax 1/4 cent Other Subtotal Total December (Baseline) Shortfall $ FY2010 Total
(956.4) $ (1,515.0) $ (2,471.4) (138.6) (229.6) (368.2) 3.0 8.1 11.1
1.4 1.9 3.3 (21.8) (29.2) (51.0) (25.5) 0.3 (25.2) $ (45.9) $ (27.0) $ (72.9) $ (1,137.9) $ (1,763.5) $ (2,901.4)
7
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
The Governor Proposes a Withdrawal of $490 Million from the Revenue Stabilization Fund as Part of His Recommended Actions to Address the FY 2009 General Fund Shortfall
• The revenue stabilization fund balance on June 30, 2008 was $1,014.9 million.
– A $21.3 million deposit required by Chapter 879 on or before June 30, 2009. – Interest credited to the fund quarterly.
•
Proceeds from the Revenue Stabilization Fund are available to meet a revenue shortfall in the currently enacted budget under proscribed conditions.
– General Assembly may appropriate a withdrawal from the Fund if there is a revenue shortfall of 2 percent or greater in certified tax revenue ($284.5 million) for FY 2008. – The withdrawal cannot exceed one-half of the revenue shortfall ($493.3 million).
•
The balance in the Revenue Stabilization Fund after withdrawing the $490 million proposed by the Governor will be in excess of $575 million after the required FY 2009 deposit and accrual of interest through June 30, 2009.
8
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
The Balance in the Revenue Stabilization Fund Will Exceed $575 Million After the Proposed Withdrawal of $490 Million
Revenue Stabilization Fund -- June 30 Balance
1,400
FY 1995-08 Actual and FY 2009 Forecast (millions of dollars)
1,190 1,065 1,015
1,200
1,000
800
575
716 577 472 482 340 247
600
400
224
361
200
80 85
157
0
FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
9
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Revenue Corrective Actions, Tax Policy Changes, and the Proposed Revenue Stabilization Fund Withdrawal Leave a Net Shortfall of $2,090.7 Million to be Addressed by Spending Adjustments
General Fund Revenue Adjustments $ in Millions FY2009 October Revenue Reforecast November Revenue Reforecast Technical Changes Transfers: ABC Profits Sales Tax 1/4 cent Other Subtotal Total December (Baseline) Shortfall Budget Reduction Plans/Balancing Actions: Federal (Title IV E Refund) Enhanced Compliance Effort Other Revenue Transfers Subtotal Proposed Tax Policy Changes: 2/3's of Excess Fees Dealer Discount on Sales Tax Captive REIT legislation Advance Fixed Date Conformity Adjust Land Preservation Tax Credit Sales Tax on Cigarettes Energy Tax Credit Energy Sales Tax Exemption Subtotal Net Shortfall Revenue Stabilization Fund Withdrawal Remaining Shortfall $ $ $ (956.4) (138.6) 3.0 1.4 (21.8) (25.5) (45.9) (1,137.9) 16.8 1.2 8.3 63.2 89.5 (2.8) (2.8) (1,051.2) 490.0 (561.2) $ $ $ FY2010 (1,515.0) (229.6) 8.1 1.9 (29.2) 0.3 (27.0) (1,763.5) 21.7 3.8 67.9 93.4 6.0 64.3 10.0 10.5 50.0 2.0 (2.0) (0.2) 140.6 (1,529.5) (1,529.5) $ $ $ Total (2,471.4) (368.2) 11.1 3.3 (51.0) (25.2) (72.9) (2,901.4) 16.8 22.9 12.1 131.1 182.9 6.0 64.3 10.0 7.7 50.0 2.0 (2.0) (0.2) 137.8 (2,580.7) 490.0 (2,090.7)
$ $
$ $
$ $
10
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
The House and Senate Revised Some of the Governor’s Tax Policy Changes
Governor’s Proposed Tax Policy Changes Two-third’s of Excess Fees Dealer Discount on Sales Tax Capture REIT Legislation Advance Fixed Date Conformity Adjust Land Preservation Tax Credit Cigarette/Tobacco Tax Increase Energy Tax Credit Energy Sales Tax Exemption ... Approved Change to Bi-Monthly Reporting; $800 cap per month +$47.6 million Phase-In (-$6.7 million) Approved Approved Rejected (-$156.9 million) Rejected +$2.0 million Rejected +$200 thousand Tax Amnesty +$43.3 million Use WQIF Cash Balance +$149.0 million House Action Senate Action Rejected ($-6.0 million) Accelerate sales tax collections in June for large dealers +$35.7 million Approved Approved Approved Rejected (-$156.9 million) Rejected +$2.0 million Approved Tax Amnesty +$37.0 million
...
... Use $1.50 of $4.0 for Life for HHR Programs +$9.5 million
... ...
Out of State Student Fees +$8.0 million
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COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Summary of General Fund Resource and Spending Actions 2008-2010 Biennium
$ in Millions
Governor
Resources Beginning Balance $ 566.6 Revenue 30,637.3 Transfers 832.2 Revenue Stabilization Fund 490.0 Total $ 32,526.1 Spending Operating Capital Total Ending Balance $
House
728.5 30,715.6 834.9 490.0 $ 32,769.0 $
Senate
572.0 30,695.0 842.6 490.0 $ 32,599.6
$ 32,759.7 (244.7) $ 32,515.0 $ 11.1
$ 32,948.3 (244.7) $ 32,703.6 $ 65.4
$ 32,800.4 (244.7) $ 32,555.7 $ 43.9
12
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Five budget drivers make up 73 percent of the general fund biennial budget in Chapter 879. . .
All Other 7,141,899,240 21% K-12 12,424,246,597 36%
Car Tax 1,900,000,000 6% Medicaid 4,629,205,066 13% Corrections 2,756,558,985 8% Mental Health 1,818,746,985 5%
Higher Ed. 3,783,384,221 11%
13
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Reductions are proposed in the biennial general fund spending for all five major budget drivers . . .
All Other ($477,616,365) 29% Technical Updates ($139,322,586) 8% K-12 ($713,855,057) 43%
Medicaid ($70,010,612) 4% Corrections ($90,732,185) 5% Mental Health ($57,258,390) 3% Higher Education ($284,900,313) 17%
Policy Revisions ($498,140,726) 30% Use Literary Fund ($54,413,893) 3% Other Changes ($21,977,852) 1%
14
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Net general fund spending reductions in budget drivers range from 3.3 percent to 10.1 percent in fiscal year 2010. . . .
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.5% 3.3% 10.1% 9.4% 8.3%
r id on on lth ns the ati ica a ti tio ea O c c d c H du du rre All Me ta l E n rE Co he Me blic Hig 2 Pu K-1
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COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Institutions of higher education
• Higher education interest earnings and credit card rebates
– – Supports the higher education restructuring funding incentives House - $5.0 million Senate: ✓
$13.3 $25.9
•
Student Financial Aid
– – Provides additional funding for undergraduate financial aid in the second year House: +$27.6 million for affordability and access. Senate: +$4.0 million
•
Old Dominion University
– – Provides funding to support the continued operation of modeling and simulation programs House: ✓ Senate: -$599,838
$2.1
•
Virginia State University
–
–
$1.5
Provides funding to support the university’s manufacturing engineering and logistics technology programs House: ✓ Senate: -$1.0 million
•
University of Virginia
– Provides the state share of the increases in employer premiums for employees participating in the university’s self-insured health plan House: ✓ Senate: ✓
$1.1
–
16
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Institutions of higher education (cont’d)
• Four-year institution reductions
– – Applies a five or seven percent reduction in FY 2009 and a15 percent reduction in FY 2010 House: ✓ Senate: ✓
($235.7)
•
Two-year institution reductions
–
($60.5)
–
Applies a five percent reduction in FY 2009 and a 10 percent reduction in FY 2010 House: ✓ Senate: ✓
• • • •
Eliminate the planned two percent salary increase for faculty
– – – – – House: ✓ Senate: ✓ House: ✓ Senate: ✓ House: ✓ Senate: +$4.0 million Begins phasing out graduate support for the TAG program House: Directs to health-related fields Senate: ✓
($37.0) ($12.6)
Eliminate the Tuition Moderation Incentive Fund in the second year Eliminate the Eminent Scholars program in the second year Reduce Tuition Assistance Grant (TAG) program for graduate students
($6.0)
($2.1)
17
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
K-12 Public Education
• Technical and mandated adjustments
– – – – – • House: ✓ Senate: ✓ Correct Special Education Child Count: $6.8 million Update for 2008 Census Count: $4.6 million Standards of Quality Account Updates: ($82.1 million) Adjust for sales tax revenue: ($64.9 million) • House: -$5.8 million Senate: -$9.3 Updates to categorical and incentive programs: ($3.7 million) • House: ✓ Senate: ✓
($139.3)
• • • • • • •
Adjust for Literary Fund Revenue Implement a funding cap for support positions
– Establishes a funding cap based on a ratio of one support position to 4.03 instructional positions • House: ✓ Senate: ✓ Flexible/Temporary
($54.4)
($340.9)
($27.5) ($55.8) ($71.6) ($1.9)
Remove support for school construction grants
• House: ✓ Senate: ✓
Eliminate use of Lottery funds for school construction grants and reassign general funded programs to the Lottery service area
• • – House: ✓ Senate: ✓ House: ✓ Senate: ✓
Eliminate FY 2010 planned salary increase Capture savings from planned state operated facility closures
SW Mental Health Institute, Commonwealth Center of Children and Adolescents • House: +$1.2 million for CCCA Senate: +$1.2 million SWMHI/CCCA
House: Flexibility on use of textbook funding Senate: Reduce textbook funding by $39.7 million 18
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Health and Human Resources
Department of Medical Assistance Services (DMAS) • Fund Medicaid Utilization
– Growth attributed to:
• • • Increased enrollment (5.1 percent in FY 2009 and 4.6 percent in FY 2010) Carryover $36.9 million from FY 2008 expenditures $17.5 million in Federal Medicare “Clawback” payment to federal government
$268.4
–
Medicaid expenditures are projected to increase by 12 percent in FY 2009 and seven percent in FY 2010
• House: ✓ Senate: ✓
• •
Fund FAMIS/SCHIP/Temporary Detention Order Utilization
– – – House: ✓ Senate: ✓
$8.3 ($418.0)
Implement budget reduction strategies
Offset the Medicaid costs of tobacco related illnesses ($154.9 million)
• House: Reject Senate: Reject
Reduce provider reimbursement rates, including eliminating inflation / rate changes: ($82.1 million)
• House: +$4.1 million Senate: -$25.3 million House: +$9.3 million Senate: -$322 thousand House: -$6.0 million Senate: ✓
– –
Limit services and implement cost containment strategies: ($36.6 million)
• •
Modify provider payment schedules: ($126.5 million) 19
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Health and Human Resources (cont’d)
Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) • Implement budget reduction strategies
– – – Reduce central office administrative costs: ($7.8 million) Reduce administrative costs of Community Services Boards: ($24.8 million ) Implement efficiencies and utilize nongeneral fund resources: ($9.5 million)
• House: ✓ Senate: ✓
($43.7)
• Close DMHMRSAS facilities
– Commonwealth Center for Children and Adolescents: ($8.3 million) with $2.1 million being used for children’s services at private facilities
• House: +$6.0 million Senate: +$4.0 million
– –
Adolescent unit at Southwestern Mental Health Institute: ($1.4 million)
• House: ✓ Senate: +$700 thousand
($7.6)
Southeastern Virginia Training Center: ($11.5 million) with a $3.2 million offset associated with MR waiver costs (savings included in DMAS)
• House: +$8.3 million Senate: +$5.9 million
–
$42.3 million reinvested in construction of community housing from funds originally appropriated for facility replacement
• House: -$23.8 million Senate: +$20.3 million
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COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Public Safety
Department of Corrections • • Increase funding for inmate medical costs Close correctional facilities
– Southampton, Pulaski, Tazewell, and Dinwiddie correctional centers; Chatham Diversion Center and White Post Detention Center
$3.1 ($35.5)
•
• • • •
Discontinue therapeutic transitional programs
– Gemeinschaft and other privately-operated facilities
($4.1)
($3.6) ($2.3) ($2.2) ($1.8)
Defer replacement of equipment Reduce counselors and psychologists Hold positions vacant longer Eliminate positions in central office
• House: ✓ Senate: ✓
21
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
New capital outlay projects are limited . . .
• Fund emergency capital projects; e.g., asbestos remediation, roof repair and replacement, erosion control, water damage $8.4 VPBA
• Authorize next phase of the Virginia Commercial Space Flight Authority's improvements to its flight facilities at Wallops Island
$10.0 VPBA
• Fund higher education equipment and furnishings for projects at various institutions of higher education being completed this biennium
–House: +$12.2 million to expedite 5 higher ed projects Senate: +$8.6 million GF
$26.3 VCBA
22
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Next Steps in the Revenue Forecasting Process
• The mid-session review due around the middle of February will incorporate the latest economic and revenue data.
– Global Insight January U.S. economic outlook.
• Impact of federal legislation and bailout plans. • Retail holiday sales.
– Key additional revenue data will be available.
• December 15: Due date for the fourth quarter corporate estimated income tax payment. • January 15: Due date for the fourth quarter individual estimated income tax payment. • January 20: Retail sales tax collections reflecting the main holiday shopping season.
23
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Summary of Fiscal Year 2009 Revenue Collections
July through January Percent Growth over Prior Year As a % of Total YTD December Revenues Actual Estimate Variance 61.5 % 3.0 % 3.4 % (0.4) % 17.5 (11.1) (8.4) (2.7) (12.1) 21.0 8.1 12.9 66.9 (0.5) (0.7) 0.2
Major Source Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Net Individual Sales Corporate Wills (Recordation) Insurance All Other Revenue Total
20.1 4.6 2.0 1.7 4.8 100.0 %
(4.6) (18.6) (36.2) (54.3) (26.5) (5.5) %
(2.1) (15.2) (34.7) (35.1) (21.5) (4.8) %
(2.5) (3.4) (1.5) (19.2) (5.0) (0.7) %
Note: Adjusted for the repeal of the estate tax and transfers to transportation from insurance and recordation per HB 3202, year-to-date collections have declined 2.7 percent compared with the forecast of a 2.8 percent decline. 24
9
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Federal Stimulus Package ?
25
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Appendix
26
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
A Proposed Tobacco Tax Increase Will Be Earmarked for the Virginia Health Care Fund and Defray Cost of Smoking-Related Illness in the Medicaid Program
• • The increased revenues will go directly to Medicaid. The CDC’s estimated cost of smoking-related illness for the Virginia Medicaid Program was $401 million in 2004.
Cigarette Tax Rates
Virginia and Surrounding States Tax Rate ($ per pack) State U.S. Rank Virginia 0.30 47 Kentucky 0.30 47 North Carolina 0.35 45 West Virginia 0.55 40 Tennessee 0.62 36 Washington, D.C. 1.00 26 Maryland 2.00 4 U.S. Median U.S. Average 1.00 1.11
27
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
A Proposed Tobacco Tax Increase Will Be Earmarked for the Virginia Health Care Fund and Defray Cost of SmokingRelated Illness in the Medicaid Program (cont’d)
Summary of the Virginia Health Care Fund Revenue Forecast
Fiscal Year 2008 Actual and Fiscal Years 2009 and 2010 Forecast (millions of dollars)
Actual FY2008 Tobacco Taxes: Base Cigarette User Fees (9/1/04) Rate Increase (2009 Session) Total Cigarette Taxes 10% Other Tobacco Products (3/1/05) 10% OTP to $0.25 per oz. (2009) Total Tobacco Taxes Tobacco Settlement Funds: Master Settlement NPM Escrow Other Revenue: Medicaid Recoveries TOTAL FUND Forecast FY2009 FY2010
14.0 154.0 0.0 168.0 15.9 0.0 183.9
13.9 153.0 0.0 166.9 15.2 0.0 182.1
13.9 153.0 154.1 321.0 15.2 0.8 337.0
53.7 0.0 61.3 298.9
55.7 0.0 61.4 299.2
55.7 0.0 66.0 458.7
$
$
$
28
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
Revenue Stabilization Fund FY2009 Withdrawal Calculation
Two Percent Threshold Determination Certified tax revenues collected in FY 2008 Two Percent of Certified Revenues Total Revised General Fund Forecast Revised General Fund Revenue Estimate FY 2009 Revised General Fund Transfers FY 2009 Revised FY 2008 Balance Forward Total Revised General Fund Forecast Calculation of General Fund Variance and FY 2009 Estimated Withdrawal General Fund Revenues Appropriated: Operating Appropriations (Chapter 879) Capital Appropriations (Chapter 879) Total General Fund Revenue Appropriated FY 2009 Revised General Fund Forecast FY 2009 Calculated Variance FY 2009 Estimated Withdrawal (1/2 of calculated variance) Calculation of One-Half the Balance of the Revenue Stabilization Fund Revenue Stabilization Fund Balance as of June 30, 2008 50% of the Balance of the Revenue Stabilization Fund Maximum Amount Available for Withdrawal Based on Calculations $ $ $ 1,014,870 507,435 493,254 $ $ $ $ $ 16,965,377 5,000 16,970,377 15,983,870 986,507 493,254 $ $ 15,016,157 401,898 565,815 15,983,870 (In thousands) $ $ 14,227,165 284,543
29
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
The Governor Proposes a Withdrawal of $490 Million from the Revenue Stabilization Fund as Part of His Recommended Actions to Address the FY 2009 General Fund Shortfall
Revenue Stabilization Fund Activity June 30, 2008 – June 30, 2009 Balance June 30, 2008 FY 2009 Deposit Estimated FY 2009 Interest FY 2009 Withdrawal Estimated June 30, 2009 Balance $1,014,870,245 $21,320,527 $30,456,700 -$490,000,000 $576,647,472
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COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
The Official and December Standard General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2009 (Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year 2008 Actual MAJOR TAX SOURCES Corporate Income Individual Income Tax: Gross Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Net Insurance Company Premiums State Sales & Use Tax Wills, Suits, Deeds, & Contract Fees Total Major Tax Sources $ 11,794.7 8,933.6 2,861.2 (1,679.9) 10,114.8 396.9 3,075.5 456.3 14,851.4 3.9 4.3 2.8 7.7 3.3 3.1 0.9 (21.7) 1.1 % $ 12,563.7 9,506.5 3,057.2 (1,786.8) 10,776.9 294.8 3,225.7 380.8 15,384.3 $ 11,861.0 9,239.8 2,621.2 (1,815.6) 10,045.4 257.5 3,010.9 298.1 14,296.9 $ (702.7) (266.7) (436.0) (28.8) (731.5) (37.3) (214.8) (82.7) (1,087.4) $ 807.9 (8.2) % $ 706.0 $ 685.0 $ (21.0) % Growth Official Forecast Fiscal Year 2009 December Forecast Change
December 17, 2008
% Growth Over FY 08 Official December
(12.6) % 6.5 6.4 6.9 6.4 6.5 (25.7) 4.9 (16.6) 3.6 %
(15.2) % 0.6 3.4 (8.4) 8.1 (0.7) (35.1) (2.1) (34.7) (3.7) %
MISCELLANEOUS TAXES AND OTHER REVENUES Alcoholic Beverage State Tax Bank Franchise Tax Beer & Beverage Excise Tax Corporate Franchise & Charter Fees Excess & Other Fees from Officers Estate & Gifts Institutional Revenues Interest & Rents Licenses & Permits Miscellaneous Taxes and Penalties Other Miscellaneous Revenues Public Service GR / Consumption Tax Total Misc. Taxes and Other Revenues TOTAL GF REVENUES TRANSFERS A.B.C. Profits Lottery Proceeds Fund Sales Tax (0.25%) Transfers Per Appropriations Act Total Transfers TOTAL GENERAL FUND $ $ $ 36.1 458.2 226.7 91.6 812.5 16,579.5 31.0 5.4 (11.1) (30.9) (0.9) % 1.2 % $ $ % $ 35.2 0.0 243.9 105.7 384.8 16,474.7 $ $ $ 36.6 0.0 222.1 145.2 403.9 15,419.2 $ $ $ 1.4 0.0 (21.8) 39.5 19.1 (1,055.5) (2.5) % (100.0) 7.6 15.4 (52.6) % (0.6) % 1.4 (100.0) (2.0) 58.5 (50.3) % (7.0) % % $ $ $ 125.3 13.8 43.5 47.0 (24.4) 153.4 7.6 189.7 4.6 222.0 36.5 96.4 915.5 15,767.0 5.6 9.6 0.9 (1.9) 26.5 0.3 5.9 7.6 (4.6) (4.8) 21.4 9.6 3.8 1.3 % % $ $ % $ 131.0 13.5 44.0 47.9 (28.1) 0.0 7.5 122.4 5.0 240.5 33.1 88.9 705.7 16,089.9 $ $ $ 131.0 13.3 43.9 43.2 (22.0) 0.0 7.5 121.1 4.6 229.8 53.6 92.4 718.4 15,015.3 $ $ $ 0.0 (0.2) (0.1) (4.7) 6.1 0.0 0.0 (1.3) (0.4) (10.7) 20.6 3.5 12.7 (1,074.6) 4.5 (2.0) 1.1 1.8 (15.4) (100.0) (1.2) (35.5) 8.5 8.3 (9.5) (7.8) (22.9) % 2.0 % % 4.5 (3.4) 0.9 (8.2) 9.7 (100.0) (1.2) (36.2) (0.2) 3.5 46.8 (4.1) (21.5) % (4.8) % %
The Official forecast is based on the January 2008 Global Insight Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation and reflects actions of the 2008 General Assembly. The December Standard forecast is based on the November 2008 Global Insight Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation approved by the GABE and GACRE. Chapter 896 (HB 3202) requires the Comptroller to deposit one-third of insurance company premiums tax collected in the most recently ended fiscal year and the revenues collected from $0.03 of the recordation tax to various transportation funds beginning in FY09.
31
COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA
The Official and December Standard General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2010 (Dollars in Millions)
Fiscal Year 2010 December Forecast Change
December 17, 2008
Official Forecast MAJOR TAX SOURCES Corporate Income Individual Income Tax: Gross Withholding Nonwithholding Refunds Net Insurance Company Premiums State Sales & Use Tax Wills, Suits, Deeds, & Contract Fees Total Major Tax Sources $ 13,421.0 10,105.4 3,315.6 (1,827.5) 11,593.5 317.3 3,391.2 415.1 16,445.3 $ $ 728.2 $
% Growth Over FY 09 Official December
Official Forecast
2008-2010 Biennium December Forecast
Change
729.0 12,185.2 9,563.2 2,622.0 (1,797.4) 10,387.8 283.1 3,166.6 298.1 14,864.6
$
0.8 (1,235.8) (542.2) (693.6) 30.1 (1,205.7) (34.2) (224.6) (117.0)
3.1 % 6.8 6.3 8.4 2.3 7.6 7.6 5.1 9.0 6.9 %
6.4 % 2.7 3.5 0.0 (1.0) 3.4 9.9 5.2 0.0 4.0 %
$
1,434.2 25,984.7 19,611.9 6,372.8 (3,614.3) 22,370.4 612.2 6,616.9 795.9
$
1,414.0 24,046.2 18,803.0 5,243.2 (3,613.0) 20,433.2 540.6 6,177.5 596.2
$
(20.2) (1,938.5) (808.9) (1,129.6) 1.3 (1,937.2) (71.6) (439.4) (199.7)
$
(1,580.7)
$
31,829.5
$
29,161.5
$
(2,668.0)
MISCELLANEOUS TAXES AND OTHER REVENUES Alcoholic Beverage State Tax Bank Franchise Tax Beer & Beverage Excise Tax Corporate Franchise & Charter Fees Excess & Other Fees from Officers Estate & Gifts Institutional Revenues Interest & Rents Licenses & Permits Miscellaneous Taxes and Penalties Other Miscellaneous Revenues Public Service GR / Consumption Tax Total Misc. Taxes and Other Revenues $ TOTAL GF REVENUES TRANSFERS A.B.C. Profits Lottery Proceeds Fund Sales Tax (0.25%) Transfers Per Appropriations Act Total Transfers TOTAL GENERAL FUND $ $ $ 34.5 0.0 257.7 95.3 387.5 17,577.6 $ $ $ 37.0 0.0 228.5 162.8 428.3 16,050.3 $ $ $ 2.5 0.0 (29.2) 67.5 40.8 (1,527.3) (2.0) % n/a 5.7 (9.8) 0.7 % 6.7 % 1.1 % n/a 2.9 12.1 6.0 % 4.1 % $ $ $ 69.7 0.0 501.6 201.0 772.3 34,052.3 $ $ $ 73.6 0.0 450.6 308.0 832.2 31,469.5 $ $ $ 3.9 0.0 (51.0) 107.0 59.9 (2,582.8) $ $ 136.0 13.9 44.0 47.9 (30.6) 0.0 7.5 149.4 5.0 248.9 32.1 90.7 744.8 17,190.1 $ $ $ 136.7 13.7 44.3 44.4 (17.1) 0.0 7.5 157.5 4.6 236.1 36.2 93.5 757.4 15,622.0 $ $ $ 0.7 (0.2) 0.3 (3.5) 13.5 0.0 0.0 8.1 (0.4) (12.8) 4.1 2.8 12.6 (1,568.1) 3.8 % 3.0 0.0 0.0 (8.9) n/a 0.0 22.1 0.0 3.5 (2.9) 2.0 5.5 % 6.8 % 4.4 % 3.0 0.9 2.8 22.3 n/a 0.0 30.1 0.0 2.7 (32.5) 1.2 5.4 % 4.0 % $ $ $ 267.0 27.4 88.0 95.8 (58.7) 0.0 15.0 271.8 10.0 489.4 65.2 179.6 1,450.5 33,280.0 $ $ $ 267.7 27.0 88.2 87.6 (39.1) 0.0 15.0 278.6 9.2 465.9 89.8 185.9 1,475.8 30,637.3 $ $ $ 0.7 (0.4) 0.2 (8.2) 19.6 0.0 0.0 6.8 (0.8) (23.5) 24.7 6.3 25.3 (2,642.7)
The Official forecast is based on the January 2008 Global Insight Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation and reflects actions of the 2008 General Assembly. The December Standard forecast is based on the November 2008 Global Insight Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation approved by the GABE and GACRE. Chapter 896 (HB 3202) requires the Comptroller to deposit one-third of insurance company premiums tax collected in the most recently ended fiscal year and the revenues collected from $0.03 of the recordation tax to various transportation funds beginning in FY09.
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