PPS High School Program Analysis by qyd44618

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PPS High School System Design: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Working Draft
3/2/2010
This document is organized around four frequently asked questions:

    1. What is the Core Program that PPS seeks to guarantee for all students and how will
       putting it in place help achieve the target outcomes?

    2. What is the required enrollment range for Community Comprehensive Schools in order
       to sustain the core program? What are the trade-offs that would be required at
       different enrollment sizes?

    3. How many comprehensive schools can we sustain, given current and future potential
       enrollment?

    4. Are there ways to resource the core program in a system with 9 comprehensive
       schools, given likely enrollment?

Part I: What is the Core Program that PPS seeks to guarantee for all students and how
does it contribute to achieving the target outcomes?

Current Program Inequities

In 2009-10, PPS high school enrollments range from 1610 (our largest school) to 176
students (the smallest school). This disparate enrollment across PPS high schools has led to
program inequities, both within the “required” course domain, which includes math, science,
world language, English and social studies and also in electives areas, support classes and
advanced options for college credit. Those most adversely impacted from these inequities
tend to be students who live within the attendance boundary of PPS’ higher poverty schools.




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                                                                          i
Chart 1: 2008-9 School Year PPS High School Courses and Sections
       School      Actual Enrollment   Enrollment (staffing)   Sections       Courses
       Pauling             186                 225                46            28
       POWER               221                 233                52            33
          SEIS             225                 220                52            35
          ACT              257                 278                54            34
       BizTech             279                 262                63            33
       Ren Arts            309                 294                74            37
      Jefferson            477                 505               117            59
       Madison             900                 956               191            70
       Benson             1134                1246               292            82
       Franklin           1007                1181               252            96
        Lincoln           1335                1424               285            88
        Wilson            1480                1491               290            84
      Cleveland           1516                1576               317            105
         Grant            1553                1627               311            94

Unacceptable disparities exist with college-credit bearing opportunities such as AP, IB and
Senior Inquiry. In 2008-9, 84% of white students had access to an AP or IB program while
only 53% of Hispanic, Native American and African American Students did. ii 49% of free and
reduced lunch students had access to an AP and IB program. This means that students who
live in the attendance area of these higher poverty schools and who are prepared and ready
to take advanced courses, such as Calculus, may not have the opportunity to do so. It also
means that higher performing students are more likely to transfer out of their neighborhood
school, leaving behind schools with higher concentrations of lower performing students than
otherwise would be present within attendance boundaries.

Below is a comparison of key course groupings within a subset of our schools. iii It should be
noted that both Pauling and Renaissance Arts are small schools and by design offer students
an educational setting which includes a smaller class size and results in fewer course
offerings. A similar choice is made regarding World Language.




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                            AP/IB or Senior Inquiry (PSU) Courses

                  2008-9 Course Name                                            # of Courses

    Pauling       AP Chemistry, AP Statistics, Senior Inquiry (Humanities)           3

    Renaissance   Senior Inquiry (Humanities)                                        1
    Arts

    Jefferson     No courses                                                         0

    Franklin      AP Language/Composition 5-6, AP Statistics, AP                    10
                  Chemistry, AP Physics, AP Psychology, AP US History,
                  AP Government, AP Spanish, AP Chinese, AP French

    Lincoln       IB Junior English, IB Senior English, IB HL Calculus, IB SL       25
                  Calculus, IB Chemistry, IB Environmental, IB Physics 1, IB
                  Physics 2, IB Psychology, IB SL Biology, IB HL Biology, IB
                  World History, IB History of the Americas, IB French 7-8,
                  IB French 9-10, IB German 7-8, IB German 9-10, IB
                  Spanish 7-8, IB Spanish 9-10, IB Spanish Humanities, IB
                  Theater, IB Art, IB Anthropology, IB Theory of Knowledge,
                  Senior Inquiry Social Studies, Senior Inquiry Science

    Cleveland     IB Junior English, IB Senior English, IB Calculus, IB             20
                  Chemistry, IB Environmental, IB Math Studies, IB Physics
                  1, IB Physics 2, IB Psychology, IB SL Biology, IB HL
                  Biology, IB World History, IB History of the Americas, IB
                  German 7-10, IB Spanish 7-8, IB Spanish 9-10, IB
                  Theater, IB Art, IB Anthropology, IB Theory of Knowledge




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                                  World Language Courses

                  2008-9 Course Name                                             # of Courses

    Pauling       Spanish 1-2, Spanish 3-4, French 3-4                                 3

    Renaissance   Spanish 1-2, Spanish 3-4, Spanish 3-6                                3
    Arts

    Jefferson     Spanish 1-2, Spanish 3-4, Spanish 5-6                                3

    Franklin      Spanish 1-2, Spanish 3-4, Spanish 5-6, AP Spanish,                  15
                  French 1-2, French 3-4, French 5-6, AP French, Chinese
                  1-2, Chinese 3-4, Chinese 5-6, Chinese 7-8, AP Chinese,
                  Russian 1-2, Russian 3-4

    Lincoln       Spanish 1-2, Spanish 3-4, Spanish 5-6, Spanish                      17
                  Immersion, IB Spanish 7-8, IB Spanish 9-10, IB Spanish
                  Humanities, French 1-2, French 3-4, French 5-6, IB
                  French 7-8, IB French 9-10, German 1-2, German 3-4,
                  German 5-6, IB German 7-8, IB German 9-10

    Cleveland     Spanish 1-2, Spanish 3-4, Spanish 3-4 Honors, Spanish 5-            22
                  6, Spanish 5-6 Honors, Spanish 7-8, IB Spanish 7-8, IB
                  Spanish 9-10, Mandarin 1-2, Mandarin 3-4, Mandarin 5-6,
                  Mandarin Immersion, Sign Language, French 1-2, French
                  3-4, French 5-6, French 7-10, German 1-2, German 3-4,
                  German 5-6, IB German 7-8, IB German



A primary focus of the high school redesign effort has been to provide equal access to a core
program for all high school students. As such, we have invested significant time in defining
what all of the elements of the core program need to be in order to meet the needs of all
students, and reach our targeted outcomes of higher graduation rates, post secondary
success, all schools in high demand, engaged students, and closing the achievement gap.

Building the Core Program

Students are required to take 18 core courses in order to graduate, leaving 10 courses (36%)
that are elective in a 7 period schedule. Schools strive to offer both breadth and depth in
both the core and elective – offering variety within science and English, for example, as well


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as an array of possible electives topics to focus on. The chart below illustrates sample
schedules for students across 9th through 12 grade.


           Freshman              Sophomore                  Junior                 Senior

             English               English                 English                English

           Algebra 1-2            Geometry              Algebra 3-4              Elective 6

     Foundations of
                                   Biology               Chemistry               Elective 7
     Physics/Chem

    Modern World Hist             Elective 2         American History           Govt/Econ

     World Language           World Language            WL, CTE, Art             Elective 8

               PE                 Elective 3             Elective 4              Elective 9

           Elective 1               Health               Elective 5             Elective 10

The Program Committee, a work stream within the High School Design Team, has sought to
build a rich core curricular program for every student attending a Community Comprehensive
high school. The Program Committee’s work was strongly informed by work sessions with
teachers and principals that began in November 2008, and modified by additional community
feedback throughout the fall of 2009.

The proposed core program includes, at a minimum:

          Courses sufficient to meet all Oregon and PPS requirements for a standard, modified,
           or extended diploma, and for admission to the Oregon University System;

          Rigorous advanced course offerings at each campus in the form of at least 10-12
           Advanced Placement (AP) or International Baccalaureate (IB) courses iv ;

          Full-time AP/IB coordination on every campus to ensure that students are gaining
           access to rigorous options and getting college credit;

          At least two world languages, of which one is Spanish, through the fifth year level or
           beyond;

          A robust elective program, including arts and career-related classes, in a range of
           depths – from semester-long career awareness courses in grades 9-10, to more in-

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           depth, year-long exploratory and preparatory courses in grades 11-12. The advanced
           courses may comprise articulated Career Technical Education (CTE) programs and/or
           may offer Dual College Credit. Arts courses will include:

              o Choir and band;

              o Theatre or dance;

              o Visual arts;

          A full time certified media specialist;

          Academic supports on every campus, including:

              o Advancement Via Individual Determination (AVID),

              o A staffed learning lab with online learning options for credit retrieval and
                original credit,

              o Proficiency-based credit recovery,

              o Scheduled math and literacy supports, and

              o A lower student-to-counselor ratio (from the current 400 students to 1
                counselor to 300:1).

How does putting the Core Program in place contribute to meeting the target
outcomes of the high school redesign, namely, closing the achievement gap and
boosting graduation rates?

The core program as defined, builds in specific requirements around providing supports to
students who are behind, guarantees access to accelerated options to push students ahead,
and adequate breadth and depth of electives to keep students engaged.

Greater Personalization – Building relationships to keep students on track

          Academy structures will be required at the 9th grade to ensure communities of
           freshmen share the same set of teachers within language arts, social studies, and
           science. They also share a common counselor. Educators participating in the
           academy structure have a common planning time to discuss student progress,
           prescribe interventions, and create interdisciplinary projects.

          Academy structures in 10th grade, or "Career Academies" in 11th/12th-grade
           are also possible within the existing staffing allocation, if a school prioritizes this
           strategy.


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          Student mentorship programs pair incoming freshmen with Juniors or Seniors at
           their school, benefiting both groups. Freshmen gain guidance and role models, while
           participating Juniors and Seniors gain valuable leadership experience.

          More counselors, of at least 1.25 more counselors in every high school (400:1 -->
           300:1 at 1350 enrollment). This provides additional capacity for students’ academic
           and social-emotional support.

Structural Academic Supports

          The AVID program will be available at every community high school. AVID is
           designed to prepare students from families who have not attended college for
           Advanced Placement courses through increased personalization, targeted tutoring,
           and academic skill support for identified students.

          Another expectation community schools will have is to “double-block” Language
           Arts and Math courses, or to offer additional, co-scheduled support courses such as
           Language! (Language Arts intervention) or Cognitive Tutor (Math intervention) during
           the school day. Also, Bridges to Advanced Algebra (3rd year of math) will be available
           in every community school.

Credit for Proficiency Options: Allowing students to catch up or move ahead more
rapidly

A key strategy in drop out prevention is helping students stay on track to graduate credit-
wise. Students who fall behind and are required to retake courses often end up significantly
credit deficient by the end of their Junior year, and are at much higher risk of dropping out.

In the core program model, every school would have a credit by proficiency program.
Students earning an F or NP (no pass) can receive "targeted remediation”. Rather than
forcing students to repeat courses in tuition-based summer or evening school programs, or
by retaking a full course during the school year, students can earn credit during the school
year through intensive intercessions or support courses. Through credit for proficiency,
students can focus learning on areas where they were previously deficient, rather than
having to retake the entire course.

Credit for proficiency options also have the potential to benefit all students. Students, such as
those who speak something other than Elnglish as their native language, can demonstrate
World Language proficiency and earn other credits through Credit by Examination. Students
would also be able to earn credit for outside school experiences that moved them deep into
an interest area (e.g. research internships, study abroad, etc.).

Online Learning Laboratory

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A fully staffed online learning lab at every community school can provide:

          Targeted remediation using online curricula for students who are not yet proficient in
           identified standards;

          Online AP, Dual Credit (e.g., PSU Independent Study), or World Language courses
           that cannot be reasonably staffed for a small population of students with interest in a
           given area;

          A location for students to complete Personalized Learning Requirements (Personal Ed
           Plan, research on college/careers, etc.); and

          A forum for online collaboration with classrooms in other PPS schools, or from around
           the world (Skype, videoconferencing, etc.).

After-School/Co-Curricular Options

          Strategic tutoring and/or online learning lab staffed outside the traditional work day
           (e.g., 1-8 p.m.), in partnership with Schools Uniting Neighborhood (SUN) and other
           providers.

          Continued partnerships with SUN, City Parks & Recreation, etc. on every campus


How can the core program meet the needs of all students and help close the
achievement gap?

The examples below illustrate how having the full core program in place can help to meet the
wide ranging needs of all of the students in our community comprehensives. They show
how students can simultaneously catch up on areas of weakness while pursuing career
interests and accruing the credits needed for graduation. They also show how an
accelerated student can access higher level courses early in high school and go on to gain
college credit before finishing high school.




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Student A – “Andrea”: Andrea was identified as an “Academic Priority” student upon her
entry to 9th-grade, as she did not meet 8th-grade OAKS benchmarks for either Reading or
Math. She plays the clarinet and has a strong interest in music and making music videos.
Andrea would eventually like to attend a four-year college after earning a 2-year transfer
degree from PCC. If Andrea were a Cleveland, Grant, Lincoln, or Wilson student, she would
not be able to take the schedule below, as she would not have access to the Support
courses.

           9th Grade              10th Grade               11th Grade                 12th Grade

1st        English 1-2            English 3-4              English 5-6                English 7-8: Literature
                                                                                      of Women Writers

2nd        Literacy Support       Literacy Support         Health I and II            Intro College Algebra
                                                                                      (Dual Credit with PCC,
                                                                                      online)

3rd        Foundations of         Biology                  Intro Music Theory (Dual   Urban Ecology
           Physics and                                     Credit through PCC)
           Chemistry

4th        Modern World           Career Awareness:        U.S. History               A.P. Government
           History                Intro to Digital Media
                                                                                      Extended Application

5th        Spanish 1-2            Spanish 3-4              Economics                  Jazz Band

                                                           PE (0.5 cr)

6th        Algebra 1-2            Geometry                 Bridges to Advanced        Music Production
                                                           Algebra                    Internship

7th        Math Support           Math Support             Career Exploration:
                                                           Advanced Digital
                                                           Media/Online Yearbook

After      After-school musical   After-school musical     PE (0.5 cr.) by
School     theater                theater                  proficiency portfolio




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Student B – “Brian”: Brian “Nearly Meets” 8th-grade OAKS benchmarks in Math and
Reading. He has a strong interest in the natural sciences, and thinks he would like to explore
a career in the field, perhaps as a wildlife biologist. Brian enjoys team sports, and wants a
comprehensive school experience. He thinks he wants to attend OSU, but he would be the
first in his family to attend college. If Brian were a Lincoln or a Jefferson student today, he
would not be able to take the schedule below (Lincoln does not offer AVID and Jefferson
does not have the elective or advanced course offerings).

            9th Grade              10th Grade             11th Grade                 12th Grade

1st         English 1-2            English 3-4            English 5-6                English 7-8: Science
                                                                                     Fiction

2nd         AVID                   AVID                   AVID                       AVID

3rd         Foundations of         Biology                Chemistry                  AP Environmental
            Physics and                                                              Studies
            Chemistry

4th         Modern World History   1st Sem - Digital      AP U.S. History            Government
                                   Photography

                                   2nd Sem – Ceramics I

                                                                                     Economics

5th         Spanish 1-2            Spanish 3-4            1st Sem – Health II        1st Sem – Ceramics II

                                                          2nd Sem – PE               2nd Sem – Extended
                                                                                     Application

6th         Algebra 1-2            Geometry               Algebra 3-4                AP Statistics

7th         1st Sem -Career        1st Sem - Career       Career Exploration:        Career Preparation:
            Awareness: Intro to    Awareness: Intro to
            Earth Science          Ecology                Urban Studies              Independent Field
                                                                                     Study, Columbia River
            2nd Sem - Health I     2nd Sem - PE                                      Estuary Partnership

After                                                     Job Shadows: River
School                                                    biologist, public health
                                                          researcher




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Student C – “Carlos”: Carlos excelled in math in middle school, and is TAG-identified for
math. He took and earned high school credit for Algebra 1-2 as an 8th-grader. Carlos’s
home language is Spanish. Although he is still working on his written Spanish skills, Carlos
earned Spanish 1-4 credits via SLIP/STAMP testing after his 8th-grade year. Carlos thinks he
would like to be a medical doctor, and wants to earn a scholarship to a 4-year university. If
Carlos were a student at Jefferson, Marshall, Madison, or Roosevelt today, he would not be
able to take the schedule identified below, as he would not have access to all of the
advanced courses identified.

            9th Grade        10th Grade              11th Grade                12th Grade

1st         English 1-2      English 3-4             English 5-6: Latin        PSU Senior Inquiry
                                                     American Literature

2nd         Geometry         Algebra 3-4             AP Statistics             AP Calculus AB

3rd         Foundations of   Biology                 AP Chemistry              PSU Senior Inquiry
            Physics and
            Chemistry

4th         Modern World     1st Sem – Intro         U.S. History              1st Sem – Economics
            History          Computer Applications

                             2nd Sem - Government                              2nd Sem – Extended
                                                                               Application

5th         Spanish 5-6      Spanish 7-8             Career Exploration:       Career Exploration:
                                                     Service Learning in
                                                     Community Health Clinic   Research Internship at
                                                     in Spanish-speaking       OHSU
                                                     community

6th         Art I-2          1st Sem - Intro to      Leadership/ASB
                             Engineering

                             2nd Sem - Intro to
                             Health Careers

7th         Health I/PE      AP Psychology           PE/Health II

After
School




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How does the core program compare to what most high schools have today?

All of our schools currently offer pieces of the core program, but are not set up to provide all
of the supports to meet the full range of students needs. For example, schools such as
Grant, Wilson and Lincoln do not offer adequate support courses to meet the needs of
students who lack academic preparation. In 2008-09, Grant devoted a total of 4 sections out
of 311 possible sections to Support courses (in this case Math). However, 22% of students
entering Grant in 9th grade were identified as “at risk to not graduate” or “academic priority”. v
Schools such as Jefferson HS are offering a significant number of support classes, but lack
the advanced options and breadth in electives to keep students engaged.

Given the number of students that qualify as “Academic Priority” (roughly 45% of incoming 9th
graders), it is critical to ensure that all schools have support programs in place. In order to
keep kids on track, we also need to provide an adequate counselor ratio, and the credit by
proficiency and other supports everywhere. We also need to make sure we are providing
adequate acceleration and career exploration opportunities at all schools to keep students
engaged and prepared for college and career. Our goal in this program design is to provide
a full program everywhere so the needs of all students are met.

How can we put the core program in place?

The most efficient way to provide this program is to balance enrollment across community
schools. The logic is simple: equal enrollment equates to approximately equal numbers of
teachers which leads to approximately equal number of courses; thus, students from high
poverty schools or low poverty schools will all have about the same quantity of course
offerings. Balancing enrollment across schools is also a relatively budget neutral (and
potentially cost cutting) method of addressing program inequities. PPS will have the same
number of students so it will need the same number of teachers. It is likely that balancing
enrollment would reduce administrative costs.




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Part II: What is the required enrollment range for Community Comprehensive Schools
in order to sustain the core program? What are the trade-offs that would be required
at different enrollment sizes?

Methodology

Once a draft of the core program had been developed, the program committee sought to
build a master schedule to support this program within the existing staffing allocation. Every
school is allotted a certain number of full time employees that is driven in large part by the
number of students enrolled in school. This defines the number of staff available to schedule
the core program given any enrollment size of a school. From the number of staff, the Team
calculated the number of available sections taught (assuming 5 periods per day per teacher)
for a school given its size. Once total sections were known, the Team could then test whether
the number of sections was adequate to provide the core program. For purposes of this
analysis, the Team used three different enrollment sizes: 1050, 1350 and 1600.

Using our allocation ratio, we calculated the number of sections offered by a school at each
size (see table). The difference in sections between 1350 and 1050 is 57 sections, vi and for
1350 vs. 1600 there is a 47 section increase.




How do schools determine what courses to offer based on the number of sections
available?

Schools have flexibility in determining how to allocate these sections. Given graduation
requirements, schools devote an average of 64% of their sections to required courses in
Freshman English, Sophomore English, Algebra, Geometry, Algebra 3-4, Spanish 1 / 2,
Spanish 3 /4, Health, Foundations of Physics and Chemistry, Biology, Chemistry, Modern
World History, American History and Economics/Government, and 36% of sections to
electives. As schools grow, they need to add sections of required courses, as well as
additional electives offerings. Typically, courses would get added in the following ways at
larger sizes:

       Offer more sections of existing courses; this may help to alleviate scheduling conflicts
        for students. For example, if a student is interested in taking AP Literature and
        Spanish Immersion. At a smaller school there may only be one section offered for
        each of those courses and it is possible that they are offered at the same time. A
        larger school can often offer multiple sections of these courses. Offering more sections

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        of additional courses may also help reduce class size for specific courses that may be
        especially large (i.e. a 46 student Calculus course might now be offered two times at
        23 students per class).
       Increase the number of derivations or options within a required subject, such as
        English. For example the school may choose to offer Women in Literature for Juniors
        or Seniors. Students could earn an English credit for this particular class. Also,
        schools with 1000 students or less tend to rotate AP classes and elective courses.
        For example, a school might offer AP Chemistry one year and AP Physics another
        year. Larger schools do not need to rely on this type of rotation as often, which
        ensures students have a better chance of avoiding scheduling conflicts.
       Increase the number of discretionary electives. Perhaps the school may choose to
        offer Forensics or other electives in which students are interested but that they did not
        have the capacity to add previously.
       Create semester electives to add flexibility and more choices in the number of courses
        offered over the course of the year, without adding extra sections.

Given all of the above factors, a school at 1050 would likely have to reduce the number of
courses vs. a 1350 school as follows:
    64% of the difference in sections (37 sections total) would likely go towards reducing
      the number of sections of core courses to adapt to the smaller cohort of students
      taking those classes at each grade level. It would also result in less variety or choices
      of courses within a given content area.
    36% or 20 sections total would be reduced in the elective domain. Assuming that
      most schools offer a minimum of 2 sections per course, this would translate into 10
      courses at a minimum. If the school had expanded choice by offering one section
      courses, it could represent up to 20 courses less than a school of 1350.


Landing on a target enrollment range – why is 1200 the bottom of the range we are
considering?

High School administrators have illustrated for us that building a master schedule is as much
an art as it is a science. Administrators of existing community-comprehensive schools are
often faced with a number of challenges and tradeoffs when building the schedule. Nearly all
of our current administrators of comprehensive schools agreed that scheduling for a larger
school was easier than scheduling for a smaller comprehensive school (i.e. 800-1000
students). Reasons for this are included below:

Increased flexibility: In building schedules, administrators must consider a number of
factors. Many schools prefer to keep Freshman English class sizes lower. Support courses,
such as AVID, also tend to have smaller average class sizes. Administrators do their best to

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avoid what could be common scheduling conflicts for students. They often build academies in
the freshman year in which students are grouped into a cohort for three of their core classes
with the same set of teachers. They build schedules for ELL and Special Education students
that allow these students to get the credits they need to graduate while also ensuring they
receive necessary additional support. In some cases, they ensure that the schedule supports
relationships with local community colleges and universities. They also consider what
courses are of interest to students and ensure these are offered at greater rates.

At an enrollment of less than 1350, administrators were in agreement that it is more difficult
to schedule the core program that has been developed. It is possible to do so at 1200 but
flexibility is significantly reduced.

Interest Areas and Career Related Courses: Providing adequate depth and breadth in
interest and career related courses is extremely challenging at enrollments below 1200. In
general, schools that are below 1200 can only offer the awareness levels in various career
areas as opposed to the more advanced exploration or preparation levels called for the
proposed core program, or focus on providing depth in fewer areas.

Athletics: It is easier to offer strong athletic programs with more students. According to PPS’
athletic director “schools with an enrollment of 1350-1500 would provide each athletic
program with enough participants to provide full and competitive teams in all sports.”

What other ways could we expand program offering without increasing the size of
campuses?

There are other ways to increase program offerings without increasing enrollment size.
Nyssa High School is a small school located in Nyssa, Oregon. Its ethnic makeup is 55%
Hispanic, 42% non-Hispanic white, with the remainder of Asian and Native American
ethnicity. This school offers 190 sections and 79 courses, equivalent to what is offered at
Madison High School. However, Madison has approximately 900 students while Nyssa has
324 students.

Nyssa is able to offer such a robust program with smaller enrollment because: 1) they have
an eight period schedule instead of PPS’ seven period schedule. This allows for more
courses (8 periods x 4 years = 32 courses versus 7 periods x 4 years = 28 courses); 2)
Teachers teach 7 out of 8 periods, instead of PPS high school teachers who primarily teach 5
out of 7 periods; 3) the school offers a host of ½ credit classes, which can increase total
number of courses.

Changing the current practice around PPS teacher class schedules would require a
collaborative effort with the Portland Association of Teachers (PAT). Currently 27% of high
school teachers teach more than 5 classes per day. Most of those are teaching special
education, CTE or other specialized electives where they are the only teacher in the building

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in those areas. The vast majority of our full time middle school and K-8 teachers teach 6
periods or the equivalent per day.

Other ways to increase program offerings could be to provide a wider array of opportunities
through online learning, and allowing students to take courses off-site, either at another high
school or even a post-secondary institution. Finally another tactic, albeit an undesirable one,
is to increase class sizes in core classes in order to create more electives.

It seems that Franklin High School is able to offer virtually the core program but only
at 1087 students. How can this be?

Franklin has received supplemental staff for the past few years above the formula in order to
support its program. For example, in 2008-09, Franklin received an additional 3.96 Full Time
Equivalent positions (FTE) for having an increased number of higher poverty students ( a
small portion of school-based FTE is allocated proportionally for increased socio-economic
status [SES]) vii , and an additional 3.24 FTE as a one-time allocation to make up for its
significant enrollment losses due to transfers out and District and Board initiated boundary
changes that resulted in fewer students attending Franklin. Franklin also received an
additional 3.15 FTE from other sources, such as grants. This total of 10.35 FTE translates to
as many as 52 additional course sections. In essence, when adding up these additional
resources, Franklin was not staffed for 1087 students but rather 1344 students. The problem
with relying on grants, the SES factor and one-time adds to resource the core program is that
these funding sources tend to be inconsistently available from year to year. In comparison,
Grant High School at an enrollment of 1553 received .06 FTE outside the funding formula.
This year (2009-10), Franklin received an extra 8.9 FTE; the formula also used 1032 students
for its enrollment base. Thus, this past year, Franklin has been staffed as equivalent to a
1236 school, which was less than two years ago.

In speaking with Franklin administrators, Franklin has consequently had to cut programs such
as auto shop and electronics, and reduced art from 2.5 FTE to 1.0 FTE. Franklin offers fewer
sections of courses, causing inflexibility in scheduling. For example, a student wanting both
ceramics and AP Spanish must choose between the two, as they are offered at the same
time. Also, because there are fewer sections, students are limited in choice because
sections are often full. Athletics are also negatively impacted by lower enrollment. Franklin
has had a difficult time fielding teams in areas such as swimming because of smaller
numbers. Also, smaller teams have an impact on safety. In football, athletes often play both
offense and defense due to lower numbers.




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PART III: If the core program requires 1350 students to ensure sufficient breadth and
depth, how many community comprehensive schools can the system sustain?

Assuming that 1350 is the target minimum enrollment required for a quality program,
determining a sustainable number of campuses depends on the following assumptions:

       Total number of 9-12 students in the PPS system in 5 and 10 years

       Ratio of students opting for community comprehensives vs. district wide focus schools,
        alternatives schools, special programs or charter schools




Total Number of 9-12 students in 5 and 10 years

In determining how many students we are designing the HS system for, PPS has looked at
historical enrollment patterns, as well as forecasts from PSU’s population research center.
We are considering a range of students, rather than a precise target. For that reason we are
currently using the PSU medium and high forecasts to define the range of possible
enrollment for the next 10 years. Further detail on this is provided below.

PPS has experienced declining enrollment for many years. 2009 is the first time we have
seen a year-to-year rise in K-12 students since 1998. In 1962, the District K12 enrollment hit
an historic high of 81,118 students. High school enrollment was 13,281 in 2009-10, down
from 15, 544 in 1999-2000, a decline of 2,263 students in 10 years.

PPS has been experiencing growth at lower grades since 2007, but it will take several years
for this trend to impact high school enrollment. Chart B illustrates the different rates of
enrollment change by grade grouping that have occurred in the recent past.




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Chart B – PPS Historic and Forecast Enrollment by Grade Grouping
    30000




                24226                                                                                                          24589
    25000
                                                                                                22630
                                                                                                                              24176
                                                21692
                                                                       21231


    20000

                                                                                                                                                 K-5 M

                 15455                                                                                                                           K-5 H
                                                14193
                                                                                                                                                 6-8 M
    15000
                                                                                        13091 13281                           13327              6-8 H
                                                                                                                                                 9-12 M
                 11269                                                                                                        12914
                                                                                                                                                 9-12 H
                                                                                9866            9825                          10215
    10000                                        10375

                                                                                                                               9922




    5000




        0
            1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

                     M= Medium Growth Scenario H = High Growth Scenario Red = enrollment low point       Source: PSU Population Research Center, January 2010




High school enrollment is easier to predict than K-8, using historical retention rates of 8th
graders moving to 9th within the PPS system and historical retention rates at higher grades.
The medium population forecasts provided by PSU Population Research Center for high
school have been accurate within 2.4% of actual enrollment in recent years. As indicated in
Chart 3, the medium forecast enrollment was above actual enrollment in three of the last four
years. We have experienced higher retention rates in 9th grade and at higher grades,
particularly in alternative programs.




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                  Chart 3: High School Enrollment Projection for 2008-9


               13500                                             13407
                                 13347             13361
               13400
                                   2%              2.1%          2.4%
               13300                               error         error
                                  error
               13200              rate              rate          rate
    Enrollment
    Projection 13100                      Actual 2008-9 Enrollment: 13,091      12981
               13000
                                                                               -.08%
               12900                                                            error
               12800                                                             rate

               12700
                             2004-05           2005-06      2006-7           2007-8
                                              Year Projection Made

The PSU Population Research Center’s medium- and high- growth forecasts anticipate
continued higher growth at the K-5 level. However, it will take several years for the higher
numbers of elementary students to age into middle and high school grades. Therefore,
growth will not be as rapid at those grade groupings in the near future. Due to the size of
incoming classes of students currently in middle grades, enrollment is forecasted to decline
for the next few years before rising again. According to PSU’s medium forecast, PPS High
School enrollment will be around 12,947 students in 2015 and 13,910 in 2020. The high
scenario forecasts 13,565 in 2015 and 14,976 in 2020. The low forecast has been
consistently low vs. actuals over time.

Given the growth PPS has experienced in recent years at the K-3 level, we have done
additional analysis to validate that the PSU projections are factoring in sufficient growth. We
compared the enrollment in K-3 with the enrollment in 9-12 nine years later using a 5 year
period beginning in 1994. During this timeframe compared to 9 years later, we retained
between 79% and 82% of K-3 students through to high school. By applying that percentage
to our current K-3 cohort, we can forecast forward nine years to estimate potential high
school enrollment.

The chart below displays the results of this analysis. The projected enrollments from this
methodology are significantly below the PSU medium and high scenarios for the same time
period. As such we can conclude that PSU is factoring in higher retention in future than we
have experienced in the recent past. For this reason we are cautiously optimistic that the
PSU medium and high scenarios are not under-estimating enrollment, and present a
reasonable range for projecting total enrollment over the next 10 years.



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    Worksheet A: Historical Retention from K-3 to 9-12
How many K-3 students typically articulate through to 9-12 9 years later?




                         K-3         9 years      9-12
        Year          Enrollment     later…    Enrollment     Net retention K-3 to 9-12
               1997       17,622       2006-07     14,230                          80.8%
               1998       17,236       2007-08     13,591                          78.9%
               1999       16,479       2008-09     13,091                          79.4%
               2000       16,103       2009-10     13,137                          81.6%
Average                   16,860                   13,512                          80.1%


What does this tell us about our future 9-12 enrollment based on today's K-3 enrollment


          Projected Retention from K -3 to 9-12 based on PPS latest retention rate

                                   High School
                                   Enrollment:
                         K-3         9 years    PPS current
        Year          Enrollment       later     retention     Implied 9-12 Enrollment
               2001       15,913        2010-11       81.6%                       12,985
               2002       15,387        2011-12       81.6%                       12,556
               2003       14,569        2012-13       81.6%                       11,888
               2004       14,539        2013-14       81.6%                       11,864
               2005       14,378        2014-15       81.6%                       11,732
               2006       14,366        2015-16       81.6%                       11,723
               2007       14,737        2016-17       81.6%                       12,025
               2008       15,113        2017-18       81.6%                       12,332
               2009       15,592        2018-19       81.6%                       12,723



How does this compare to the PSU forecast for HS enrollment?

2009 PSU Forecasts
                                         PSU
                          PSU          implied                                                         PSU
                        Medium         medium      PSU High           PSU implied high     PSU Low implied low
        Year            Forecast      retention    Forecast              retention         Forecast  retention
         2010-11           12,802         80.4%       13,100                         82.3%    12,558      78.9%
         2011-12           12,615         82.0%       13,038                         84.7%    12,241      79.6%
         2012-13           12,629         86.7%       13,189                         90.5%    12,125      83.2%
         2013-14           12,446         85.6%       13,116                         90.2%    11,829      81.4%
         2014-15           12,393         86.2%       13,170                         91.6%    11,681      81.2%
         2015-16           12,482         86.9%       13,333                         92.8%    11,686      81.3%
         2016-17           12,614         85.6%       13,482                         91.5%    11,741      79.7%
         2017-18           12,834         84.9%       13,763                         91.1%    11,907      78.8%
         2018-19           13,066         83.8%       14,096                         90.4%    12,067      77.4%



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   The system may trend back to close to 15,000 students total by 2020. However, this growth
   pattern is forecast to be modest for the next few years, and then increase once the current K-
   3 bubble hits high school.

   How many students will attend community comprehensive schools versus other types
   of programs?

   Currently 8,324 students attend comprehensive neighborhood high schools on 7 campuses
   (63% of the total viii ), and 1,432 (11%) attend small schools on 2 campuses, for a total of
   9,756 students in neighborhood schools (73%). District-wide programs at Benson, Young
   Women’s Academy and MLC account for 1,293 students or 10%. Three percent of students
   are in charter schools, and the remaining 1,878 students (14%) attend alternative and special
   services programs, some district-run and some community-based.

          School Type                                       Enrollment         % of Total

          Neighborhood Comprehensive                        8324               63
          Neighborhood Small Schools                        1432               11
          District Wide School                              1293               10
          Charter Schools                                   354                3
          Community Based Alternative & Special Services    1878               14

          Total                                             13,281             100%


   It is difficult to project exactly what enrollment decisions students will make in a new system
   with comprehensive neighborhood schools and district wide focus schools. Supply of focus
   school programs could drive demand. Strong neighborhood comprehensives may reduce
   demand for focus programs, and could also reduce the proportion of students in alternative
   settings. Charter school enrollment will likely continue to grow, at least modestly, due to
   growth at LEP and the new High School of the Recordings Arts, which is due to open in
   2011-12.

   For the purposes of this analysis, we identified two opposing scenarios to illustrate the
   potential enrollment of community comprehensives in the future. Neither of these scenarios
   is a current recommendation, they are meant to represent two different possible paths:

1) No new focus schools are opened, so that any growth in enrollment over time is
   absorbed almost entirely by community comprehensives. In this scenario, the 6 small
   schools are eliminated and not replaced with any focus schools. We assume that the current
   focus school enrollment and enrollment in special and alternative programs is fixed, and that


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charters grow to a maximum of 650 students. This represents a design that moves
completely away from offering small school options other than MLC. Enrollment in
comprehensives grows to 71-74% of the portfolio or 9,561 – 10,885 students in the medium
and high forecasts in 2020.

                    Medium Forecast                   2015             2020
Total Students                             100%        12,482     13,382       100%
Community Comprehensives                    69%         8,661      9,561        71%
District Wide Programs                      10%         1,293      1,293        10%
Charters                                     5%           650        650         5%
Alternatives and Special Programs           15%         1,878      1,878        14%


                     High Forecast                        2015         2020
Total Students                             100%         13,333    14,706       100%
Community Comprehensives                    71%          9,512    10,885        74%
District Wide Programs                      10%          1,293     1,293         9%
Charters                                     5%            650       650         4%
Alternatives and Special Programs           14%          1,878     1,878        13%


2) Two new small school options are added to the portfolio, replacing the 6 small
schools in today’s model. Combined enrollment in these new schools is assumed to be
800-1100 students. Community comprehensives would also grow from 62% to 64-66%,
while focus schools would comprise approximately 17%. In this scenario the number of
students in community comprehensives ranges from 8,498 to 9,706 in the medium and high
scenarios in 2020. This represents more students than the current 7 comprehensive schools
enrolled today, but less than in scenario one.
                                              Medium Forecast
                                                   2015             2020
    Total Students                         100%     12,482        13,382      100%
    Community Comprehensives                64%      7,988         8,498       64%
    District Wide Programs                  18%      2,247         2,355       18%
    Charters                                 5%        650           650        5%
    Alternatives and Special Programs       15%      1,878         1,878       14%

                                                  High Forecast
                                                      2015          2020
    Total Students                         100%        13,333     14,706      100%
    Community Comprehensives                64%         8,533      9,706       66%
    District Wide Programs                  17%         2,272      2,472       17%
    Charters                                 5%           650        650        4%
    Alternatives and Special Programs       14%         1,878      1,878       13%


In each of these scenarios, we then calculated what the average enrollment would be
assuming different number of campuses for community comprehensives, to determine how
close to 1350 we would be. The results are below.



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SCENARIO 2: What if we supported the growth of 2 new focus schools in order to offer the small school option?
Enrollment per Campus                                     2015                                    2020

                                              9                                       9           8        7
                                           Campuses 8 Campuses       7 Campuses    Campuses    Campuses Campuses
Medium Scenario                                 888         999            1,141         944       1,062   1,214
High Forecast                                   948       1,067            1,219       1,078       1,213   1,387


Even in the first scenario, where no new focus school capacity is created, using all 9
campuses for comprehensives would not result in an average of 1350 enrollment in 2020,
and average enrollment could remain significantly below 1350 for at least the next 5 years.

We are facing a set of very difficult trade-offs. Should we continue to operate 9 campuses as
comprehensives with enrollments around 1000, even if we can’t guarantee the breadth and
depth we have identified as a minimum core program? Should we continue to offer small
school options, given the promising results they have attained, even if it means reducing the
number of community comprehensive sites? How important is it to preserve Benson as a
school of 1100-1200 students, if it means we can’t offer other options or a strong core at
community comprehensives?




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PART IV: Could we just fund high schools differently in order to preserve 9
community comprehensive schools in existing sites?

Given the painful disruption created by changing school boundaries and programs, it’s worth
analyzing all possible options before any possible decision to reduce the number of
comprehensive sites. Ignoring the desire to offer some small school options, could we simply
limit transfers as a way to better balance enrollment across some sites, and then fund the
programs there regardless of lower enrollments? Several scenarios below explore this
question in different ways. Our conclusion is that it would require significant ongoing annual
resource commitments above the current allocation to do this. Given the current resource
environment, and ongoing urgent need to invest in K5/K8 and MS programs to ensure
students are prepared for high school, staff is not recommending that any of these are viable
options. They are merely illustrations in order to provide a very high level quantification of
the resource requirements for a system with 9 comprehensive schools. They do not take
into account any decrease in enrollment in future projections and assume funding levels
consistent with today- both of which would need to ba accounted for in a more detailed
analysis.


    Scenario 1: Equalize enrollment at neighborhood schools by reassigning all current HS students to
    neighborhood schools. Staff all of them at 1350.

    Number of neighborhood schools                                                   9
    Current enrollment (all neighborhood plus focus schools)*                  11,049
    Average enrollment per school *                                             1,228
    Enrollment if all neighborhood schools had 1350                             12150
    Difference                                                                   1101
    Incremental FTE required to staff at 1350                                      48
    Cost at $91,000 per FTE                                         $       4,375,153
    * This scenario assumes no focus schools. Current Benson, YWA, MLC closed and students reassigned to neighborhoods.


In this costing scenario, PPS closes all focus schools, including Benson, YWA and MLC. It
implements strict restrictions on transfers across community schools to balance enrollment at
community schools. PPS then staffs all nine campuses at 1350 students; however, PPS
would not have 12,150 students (or 1,350 x 9 students) and thus would need to subsidize
1,101 students worth of program. This scenario would require an additional 48 FTE to be
hired or about $4.3 million per year.




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    Scenario 2: Staff existing schools that are below 1350 to provide the full core program.

                                                                                                         Incremental FTE
                                                                                                       required above base
                           School                         Current Students    Diff. Vs. 1350         allocation elective only
Cleveland                                                              1553
Franklin                                                               1032                    318                       5.3
Jefferson                                                               435                    915                      15.2
Lincoln                                                                1395
Grant                                                                  1610
Wilson                                                                 1439
Madison                                                                 860                    490                       8.1

ACT                                                                    273
SEIS                                                                   199
POWER                                                                  211
                                                                       683                     667                      11.1

Renaissance Arts                                                       289
Biztech                                                                176
Pauling                                                                284
                                                                       749                     601                      10.0


Total incremental FTE required                                                                                          49.6

Total cost @ $91,000 per FTE                                                                         $            4,516,541


In this costing scenario, PPS provides extra resources to those schools that are below 1350
in order to resource the core program. These resources cover the cost to add additional
electives and do not provide additional FTE for the required domain (i.e. English, Math,
Science, Social Studies, etc…), so that smaller schools would have less variety within core
subject areas than larger schools. Small schools would convert to comprehensives in this
scenario. This scenario would require an additional 50 FTE to be hired or about $4.5 million
per year. Assume that existing focus schools remain open at their current enrollment size.




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    Scenario 3: Staff all schools at 1350 regardless of current enrollment

                              School                     Current Students Difference vs. 1350    FTE Loss or Gain
Cleveland                                                            1553                 -203                 (8.9)
Franklin                                                             1032                  318                 13.9
Jefferson                                                             435                  915                 40.0
Lincoln                                                              1395                  -45                 (2.0)
Grant                                                                1610                 -260                (11.4)
Wilson                                                               1439                  -89                 (3.9)
Madison                                                               860                  490                 21.4
Roosevelt Campus:
  ACT                                                                 273
  SEIS                                                                199
  POWER                                                               211
                                                                      683                 667                  29.1
Marshall Campus:
 Renaissance Arts                                                     289
 Biztech                                                              176
 Pauling                                                              284
                                                                      749                 601                  26.2
Total enrollment on PPS neighborhood campuses                        9756                2394
Incremental FTE required to staff all at 1350 @ 22.9:1                                                        104.5
Total Cost @ $91,000 per FTE                                                                       $      9,513,275


In costing scenario three, PPS would fund all schools as if they had 1350 students even if in
actuality they are smaller or larger. This scenario redistributes existing resources in order to
provide more program at smaller schools. Both the core and elective program is resourced
in this particular scenario. Assume that existing focus schools remain open at their current
enrollment size.




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    Scenario 4: Redistribute current students by redrawing boundaries to equalize enrollment at current
    levels and allocate same staff to every school (Cost neutral - some schools lose program, no school
    has sufficient enrollment for proposed core program)

                                               School            Current Students New enrollment            FTE Loss or Gain
    Cleveland                                                                1553               1084                     (20.5)
    Franklin                                                                 1032               1084                       2.3
    Jefferson                                                                 435               1084                      28.3
    Lincoln                                                                  1395               1084                     (13.6)
    Grant                                                                    1610               1084                     (23.0)
    Wilson                                                                   1439               1084                     (15.5)
    Madison                                                                   860               1084                       9.8
    Roosevelt Campus:
      ACT                                                                       273
      SEIS                                                                      199
      POWER                                                                     211
                                                                                683                  1084                  17.5
    Marshall Campus
     Renaissance Arts                                                           289
     Biztech                                                                    176
     Pauling                                                                    284
                                                                                749                  1084                  14.6
    Total enrollment on PPS neighborhood campuses                              9756                  9756                   -


In this scenario, PPS would balance enrollment across campuses and convert small schools
to comprehensives by redrawing boundaries and reassigning students. Existing resources
would be redistributed to equalize the staffing and program at all schools, reducing current
programs at schools that are currently larger than 1084. Note that the High School Team
believes that the FTE generated by 1084 students would be inadequate to resource the core
program as currently defined. Also note that according to the PSU medium forecast scenario,
enrollment will likely be less than 1100 students during years 2011-2016 because high school
enrollment is projected to decline during that time period.




                                                            
 
i
  In 2008‐9, most PPS high schools were staffed at a higher rate than their actual enrollment. This was done because using 
actual enrollment numbers would have led to severe cuts – even more than the 45 FTE actually eliminated. Historically, 
when schools suffer from significant rates of declining enrollment, as the high school system has, PPS provides a buffer so 
that schools do not take enormous staffing cuts all at once. For this analysis, the enrollment numbers that are used 
include additional FTE given above and beyond what the staffing formula would have normally allotted. However, these 
numbers do NOT include the additional funding that is allocated to schools based on their enrollment of free and reduced 
lunch designated students.  Note: sections and courses are different. A course can have from one to several sections (e.g. 
1 section of 2nd year Calculus, 9 sections of Freshman English). 




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ii
  A program assumes an AP or IB course in all core content areas (Math, English, Social Studies and Science) plus two 
additional electives.   
iii
       These courses include those offered in the 2008‐9 school year. Jefferson has since added a Senior Inquiry course. 

iv
       Although there is no “AP Diploma” comparable to the “IB Diploma,” the core program was modeled on each campus 
offering at least 10‐12 advanced courses – i.e., at least two from each core content area: language arts, math, social 
studies, science, world language and/or the arts. Students interested in an “AP Certificate” would complete one course 
from each of the core subject areas.  Students seeking an IB Diploma, in contrast, must take at least six courses across 
content areas (at least 3 of which at the “Higher Level”) plus Theory of Knowledge. IB Diploma candidates must also 
complete an Extended Essay and complete a minimum number of hours of CAS (Creativity, Action and Service).  Although 
either AP or IB (or both) will be offered at each CC, the choice will be left up to the school community. 
v
  Academic priority students are defined as students who score low or very low on 2 out of 3 of the 8th grade Oregon State 
assessments (math, reading or science) OR received an F in Math, English, Science or Social Studies OR had 16 or more 
absences in 2008‐9. These students are most likely to not graduate. 

vi
        School curricular program is a function of student enrollment.  After taking into account administrative costs and non‐
classroom  positions,  schools  generally  have  approximately  one  Full  Time  Employee  for  every  26.48  students.  (Note: 
Currently, at PPS, teachers are allocated at the high school level at a ratio of 1 full time employee (FTE) per 22.9 students 
within the existing staffing allocation. However, the Team realized that on average schools devote approximately 10% of 
this allocation to non‐classroom positions such as campus security monitors, bookkeepers, data clerks, athletic directors, 
librarians, etc. Also, given the new program requirements of a learning lab coordinator, an AP/IB/AVID coordinator, and 
reduced counselor ratio, the more realistic ratio is 26.48 students to 1 FTE.  Thus, true instructional FTE can be calculated 
by dividing a school’s enrollment by 26.48). This analysis also assumes 7‐period day. Teachers generally teach 5 classes, 
and have 1 planning period, and have 1 duty period. Thus, a school’s total course sections can be determined by taking 
instructional FTE and multiplying it by 5.   
vii
     SES (Socio‐Economic Factor) ‐ 5% overall of non‐administrative staffing is allocated to schools based on the proportion of 
students at the school who qualify for free and reduced priced meals. The SES factor will only be applied to high schools 
that have a percentage equal to or greater than 40% free and reduced price meal percentage. The minimum requirement is 
designated to concentrate the allocation of the SES factor to higher poverty schools, particularly since Title I allocations 
only go to those high schools with free and reduced price meal percentages of 75% or more.
 
viii
        Source: PSU Population Research Center, December 2010 used for analysis in this section. 




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