XMM Newton UG Meeting Cost Reduction and Mission Extensions by dennishaskins


									 XMM-Newton UG Meeting /
Cost Reduction and Mission
   Extensions for 2010+

     9th January 2007, ESA HQ, Paris

            Norbert Schartel

     (XMM-Newton Project Scientist)

                                         Norbert Schartel   1
• Items
   – Situation
   – Viewgraphs, that were presented at15th December meeting
     with the Astronomical Working Group Chair / strategy for
     cost savings and scientific rational for extension after 2010

                                                        Norbert Schartel

                        Situation I
• NEW: Science Programme Review Team (SPRT):
   – If Cosmic Vision Call then ESA has to save 200m

• Proposal of executive to get the 200 m:
   – 120m from Solar Orbiter (well supported by SPC, NASA?)
   – 20m from Internal Costs
   – 60m from Mission Extensions, which are
       • 4 years XMM-Newton (2010-2014) 70.3m
       • 2 years Integral 17.4m
       • 2 years MEX (October 2007?) 15.3m
       • 2 years Venus Express (September 2007?) 8.2m
       è same savings + all extensions cut to half

                                                         Norbert Schartel

                       Situation II
• Situation:
   – SPC: (16.11.2006):
   – …CV implementation plan: initiatives proposed by executive
     were well received …
   – …Reservation was expressed on the reduction of future
     extensions of missions currently in operations
   – SPC members stated verbally that no mission will be closed
     (contradicting the above?)

è We need a good Science Case for 1010-1014 operations and
  we have to get it into the system for the next AWG meeting
   – New scientific issues and topics

                                                     Norbert Schartel

Viewgraphs shown at the 15th December

                                Norbert Schartel

• Items
   – Impact of possible cost reduction measures on the XMM
     science return
       • Character of the mission
       • Costs and Savings
   – Science rationale for post-2010 operations
       • Situation before November SPC and Plannings
       • Scientific rationale: Details
   – Comments
       • Closing Missions
       • XMM-Newton and future X-ray missions

                                                        Norbert Schartel

    Character of the Mission: Publications
• Publication
  rate per year
  is constant
  since 2004

• About 300
  papers per
  year since

                                     Norbert Schartel

 Citations (added, suggested by AWG chair)
• Paper by V. Trimble, P. Zaich & T. Bosler: Productivity and
  Impact of Space-based Astronomical Facilities (2006, PASP
  118, 651)
   – The result is superstar in citation numbers for XMM-
   – Table 3 / top entry ….43.4 citations per paper for XMM-
     Newton without the heavily cited mission description papers

• Analysis of XMM-Newton papers collected by NASA:

• XMM-Newton papers are four times more cited than the
  average astronomical paper, e.g. 7.8% of the XMM-Newton
  papers of the last year belong to the 1% most cited papers.

                                                      Norbert Schartel

    Character of Mission: Usage and Requests
•   AO6:                               •   XSA:
     – 594 valid proposals were             – 2000 external registered
       submitted                              uses
     – oversubscription 6.9                 – 145 external users used the
                                              XSA in October 2006
     – 425 different principal
                                              (typical value)
       investigators from 29                – 1700 data sets (ODF and
       countries                              PPS) were downloaded
     – 1550 individual scientists
                                       •   SAS:
•   OTAC:                                   – Version 7.0 (public since 1st
     – 13 panels                              June 2006)
     – 66 scientists (rotation every        – 815 downloads
       2 AOs)                               – ~1550 scientists have
                                              access to SAS 7.0 (based
                                              on feedback to our

                                                               Norbert Schartel

Character of Mission: Users / Requirements
• Users:
   – Large Community: ~1500 scientists
   – Core of scientists working on XMM-Newton data: 300-500
   – All scientific topics from comets and planets up to the most
     distant quasars
   – Most of users are not in members of PI institutes, SSC
     members or in any other way directly connected with the
     XMM-Newton project

• Observatory type mission:
   – Annual call for observing time time proposals
   – Peer review process (OTAC)
   – Support for users: starting form definition of observation
     details, enhancement, scheduling/coordination … help-desk,
     …analysis (SAS)…calibration …archiving …

                                                        Norbert Schartel

          Costs and Savings: General
•   XMM-Newton costs (ESA) are almost exactly 50% of the
    operational costs of a comparable X-ray mission of NASA
    – technical costs of NASA X-ray mission are lower

•   Cost Reduction Options:
    – 12 are tabled in presentation of A. Parmar (+ further
    – Four categories
        1. No or minimal scientific return (not further evaluated)
        2. Savings are inefficient (X10: 8hr/d operations 5d/week,
           scientific output reduced to 25%)
        3. Real possible savings (connected with risk)
        4. Savings are minimal and scientific opportunity is very tempting
           (TOO support: 0.2 FTEs)

    è Only option 3 is providing real and justifiable savings

                                                              Norbert Schartel

     Costs and Savings: Next Steps
• Most SOC changes can only be done after 2009
  because of contractual issues

• Next steps are important:
  – Recommendations from XMM-Newton UG with
    respect of the scientific requirements and risk
  – Recommendations from instrument PIs with
    respect of risk
  – Mission Extended Operations Review

                                             Norbert Schartel

   Science Rationale for >2010 Operations
• Situation before November SPC:
  – Fuel, instruments health and developments,
     situations of consumables indicates that
     operations up to 2018 is possible
  – One day discussion with the XMM-Newton Users
     Group in May 2006:
  – Operations in a 2010-2018 scenario requires new
     • difficult decisions as currently the mission is very
     • Are there scientific topics and ideas which can not be
       satisfied within the current set up?
     • Where to go from the scientific side?

                                                     Norbert Schartel

             Science Rationale: Planning I
•   XMM-Newton UG & PS agreed (May 2006):
    – 2007 Science Workshop (4th - 6th June):
       XMM-Newton Legacy Projects Workshop
    – Aim:
        •   Identify possible legacy type projects
        •   Identify possible scientific visions topics: hot topics which are only
            possible in the future (e.g. identify GW emitting binary systems that are
            counterpart of LISA sources system)
    –   UG recommendation for legacy & vision type program
    –   Use WS results for scientific rational for mission extension (written
        by PS & input of UG)
    –   Identify changes required to allow legacy type and vision type
    –   AWG recommendation for mission extension (October 2007)
    –   AWG recommendation for legacy & vision type program (October
    –   AO8 first legacy & vision type programs (>2009)

                                                                      Norbert Schartel

         Science Rationale: Planning II
• Scientific rational for >2010 operations is
  currently not written

• (So far) the rational for mission extensions was
  written by the PS based on input of the Mission
  Scientists and Users Group Members.

• If possible then I would like to keep this set-up
  and also the timeline, i.e. after the 2007 XMM-
  Newton workshop, such that a larger part of the
  scientific community can participate of the post
  2010 science case

                                                Norbert Schartel

    Science Rationale for >2010 Operations: Details I

•   Stars, White Dwarfs and Solar System

•   White Dwarf Binaries, Neutron Star Binaries, Cataclysmic
    Variables, ULXs and Black Holes

•   Supernovae, Supernova Remnants, Diffuse (galactic)
    Emission and Isolated Neutron Stars

•   Galaxies and Galactic Surveys

•   Active Galactic Nuclei, Quasars and BL-Lac Objects

•   Groups of Galaxies, Clusters of Galaxies and Superclusters

•   Cosmology, Extragalactic Deep Fields and Area Surveys

                                                    Norbert Schartel

 Science Rationale for >2010 Operations: Caveats

• Caveats:
  – Variability of sources (GBC in outburst
    every 3 years visible for XMM-Newton)
  – Few sources / observations allow
    important progress (observed in specific
    state or under specific circumstances)

                                         Norbert Schartel

    Science Rationale for >2010 Operations: Details II

•    Stars, White Dwarfs and Solar System
      – Star formation and young stellar objects: roll of accretion,
         star-disk connection
      – Accretion on the central star (e.g. IAU symposium on
         "magnetospheric accretion“)
      – Metal under-abundances in the accretion flows
      – Consequences for planet formation
      – X-ray irradiation of proto-planetary disks (ionization,
         chemistry, etc.)
      – Large facilities on the ground (like the VLTI or ALMA) and in
         space (Herschel, JWST) will have impact on X-ray

                                                           Norbert Schartel

    Science Rationale for >2010 Operations: Details III

•    White Dwarf Binaries, Neutron Star Binaries, Cataclysmic
     Variables, ULXs and Black Holes
      – Relativistic Fe emission lines (disk, connection with outflows)
      – Ultraluminous X-ray sources
      – Quiescent neutron stars: emission mechanism and
         comparison with black holes
      – Follow-up of HESS VHE sources (MAGIC, Whipple, etc. )

                                                           Norbert Schartel

    Science Rationale for >2010 Operations: Details IV

•    Supernovae, Supernova Remnants, Diffuse (galactic)
     Emission and Isolated Neutron Stars
     – Energetic and emission processed of young, rotation-
        powered pulsars
     – Phase-resolved spectroscopy of several types of pulsars,
        surface of pulsar
     – Pulsar tails
     – Follow-up of HESS VHE sources (MAGIC, Whipple, etc. )
     – Interaction of SNRs with molecular clouds / cosmic-ray
        acceleration: "the SNR paradigm“
     – High-resolution spectroscopy of thermal SNRs: physics on
        collision-less SNRs shocks

•    Galaxies and Galactic Surveys
     – Mapping of (main parts of) the LMC (& SMC)
     – Diffuse emission

                                                      Norbert Schartel

    Science Rationale for >2010 Operations: Details V

•    Active Galactic Nuclei, Quasars and BL-Lac Objects
     – Relativistic Fe emission lines, time variability of Fe K
         emission line features, disk, still increasing learning curve,
         individual orbits, black hole physics
     – Relativistic effects
     – Outflows: connection between outflows and disk
     – AGN environment: balance between accretion and
         outflows, a key ingredient to model BH growth
     – QPO, reverberation mapping (legacy-type program is
     – High energy selected AGNs
     – Obscured AGN activity (AGN selected in Gamma-Rays)
         and consequence for X-ray background, sources selected
         with new facilities like Herschel (2008+), ALMA (2012+) ,
         EMIR on GTC 2009+ and KMOS on VLT 2012+)
     – Simultaneous observations with other and new facilities

                                                             Norbert Schartel

    Science Rationale for >2010 Operations: Details VI

•    Groups of Galaxies, Clusters of Galaxies and Superclusters
     – Chemical abundances in clusters (long observations to study
        spatial distribution)
     – Planck, Alma, South Polar: Sunyaev-Zel’dovich Effect
        •   Cluster itself
        •   Cluster formation at z=1.5

                                                      Norbert Schartel

    Science Rationale for >2010 Operations: Details VII

•    Cosmology, Extragalactic Deep Fields and Area Surveys
     – WHIMs
     – Clusters as cosmological probe, e.g. high-redshift clusters
        crucial to understand the scaling relations of clusters at high z
        (Planck, Alma, South Polar, è Legacy Type Program)
     – Dark Matter: XMM-Newton essential to determine the hot gas
     – Large Field (~100 square degrees, è Legacy Type Program)
        and mulit-wavelength approach (Planck, Alma, South Polar)

                                                           Norbert Schartel

      Comments I: Closing Missions
• There are three ways to close a mission:
   – Decision to stop (Compton)
   – Technical End (ISO)
   – Cut funding (NASA with IUE) such that
      • Errors in operations are happening
      • Scientific return decreases

                                              Norbert Schartel

    Comments II: XMM-Newton and Future X-Ray Missions

• XMM-Newton Science Workshop (26th-28th of June 2006):
  Variable and Broad Iron Lines around Black Holes

• XMM-Newton:
   – Large field of view (r=15’)
   – Large collecting area (>2000 cm2 for all EPIC)
   – High time resolution
   – High spectral resolution (RGS, possible for extended sources)

è No other telescope with similar or better overall performances
  available for about 10 years or more

                                                      Norbert Schartel


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