Decision Support for TT Hue

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					        Decision Support for TT Hue

        Tools, Experts, Training &
                 Advice

              Marieke Nieuwaal

nr. 1
         Decision Support for TT Hue

        Problem areas
          that need advice:
        • flooding
        • water quality
          problems
        • user conflicts on
          land and water
        • coastal erosion &
          tidal inlets
          behaviour
        • creating local expertise
nr. 2
         Decision Support for TT Hue

        1) Decision support needs experts for application
         of tools, analysis of results and advise to
         government.

        2) Therefore we propose to create a local base of
         trained people and sustainable basis for training
         and education in Hue.

        3) This can be achieved by involving the
         University and strengthening the capability of
         the College of Sciences.

nr. 3
                                              Decision Support in time
Time schedule
                                                      2000        2001        2002        2003         2004        2005        2006        2007        2008        2009        2010        2020

Activity                                           Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

   1.      Milestones
           - ICZM Strategy 2004
           - Priority Action Plans
           - Updated ICZM Strategy/PAPs 2008


   2.      Lagoon Project NPC


   3.      CCP


   4.      IDRC


   5.      VNICZM
           - Phase 1
           - Bridging phase
           - Prolonged bridging phase
           - Phase 2 / VICZMP


   6.      SAPROF


   7.      TROPENBOS


   8.      SNV Collaborative Forestry Management


   9.      LICCP, ADB PPTA
           - Preparation of ADB PPTA Project
           - Loan from ADB for PPTA Project


  10.      IMOLA


  11.      HRMIM


  12.      Decision Support Tool
           - Setup of DST
           - Implementation of DST
           - Usage of DST


  13.      Socio-Economic Development Plan


  nr. 4
        A Decision Support System
        (DSS) project for TT Hue
         supports ICZM Strategy and Action Plan

         fills the gap between VNICZM project and
         its successor VICZMP

         has long term scope, but interim results
         possible each year (modular architecture)

         gives input to socio-econ. development
         plan 2009

nr. 5
                               Compose                 Compute            Analyze
                           1                       2                3




What is a DSS?
 A DSS assists decision
   makers
 Features often include:
 • structured approach
 • easy data access
 • models or model
   results                       Natural system                  Social system

 • scenarios                       Topography                           Economy

 • effects of measures              Hydrology                           Sociology
   and policies
                                   Water quality                    Demography
 • visualisation with
   maps and graphs                  Sediment                            Land use


                                     Ecology
nr. 6
        Why do we need a DSS?
        • To assist the decision maker in pursuing
          sustainable development of the Hue area

        • To better understand the natural and socio-
          economic systems, their relations and drivers

        • To provide a framework for cooperation between
          different institutes (sharing of knowledge and data)

        • To use as a basis for modernized environmental
          education, training and research

nr. 8
        What do we require for
        Decision Support?
        • Implementation of tools for TT-Hue, within
          framework of ICZM Strategy and Action plans.

        • Co-operation between departments and universities.

        • Centre of expertise to maintain, apply tools and
          analyse results and provide advise

        • Training and education strategy to provide long
          term people base to allow self sustaining decision
          support (involvement of Hue University College of
          Science).
nr. 9
         Who is involved in TT Hue?
                                                                            PPC
                                                                                                                                         RNE


                                                                                                                                                                - UNV Hue
                                                                                                                                                                - UNV Hanoi
                      TROPENBOS




                                                                                                                                                                              SAPROF
                CCP                            Problem Areas                                        Flooding

                                                                                                Water quality / carrying capacity

                                                                                                                                          Coastal erosion

                                                                                                                    Land and water use conflicts
         NCAP

                                                                            Water       1D River model            2D Lagoon model        Shore     2D or 3D
                                  Huong River System showing sub system

                                   domains (italics) & dominant processes




                                                                            balance
                                    units and various mathematical model




                                                                                                                                         line      Ocean
                                                                            model                                                        model     model
          IMOLA                                                             Catchment                                                                                            LAGOON
                                                                                                                                                                                 PROJECT
                                                                                                                                                                                   NPC

                                                                                                River
                                                                                                                       Lagoon
                                                                                                                                          Coast

                                                                                                                                                       Marine



                                                                              Run-off & river              Tides & river              Tides & waves
            HMS                                                                discharges                   discharges

                                                                                                                                                                              HRMIM




                          SNV                                                                                                                                   - DONRE
                                                                                                                                                                - DARD
                                                                                                                                                                - DOFI

                                                                                                                                          LICCP
                                  IDRC                                                                NEW
                                                                                                                                         ADB PPTA
                                                                                                  Initiatives !!
nr. 10
Proposal for a new structure of education and
 research for ICZM at Hué U., C. of Sciences
                                            PPC/HCS
                         CIDA                                        RNE


                  Coastal and marine                 Coastal zone system
                  zone governance                    functioning and human-             CAERE project
                                                     nature interactions               proposal written
         Multi faculty     Funded!                             Proposed                 in 2004 by T.T.
            inter                                                                     Phap and de Vries
          university
                                 Centre for           Centre for
            Int. Program                                coastal
                                   coastal                               DSS
            Support +                                 advanced
                                 and marine                             project        Involvement of
            Departmental                              ecosystem
                                 governance                                              third parties
                                                       research

                                The Hué Institute for applied ICZM


                   Training                                           Training       DSS project will
                  programs            Master level education         programs        deliver program
                  Community                                                              support
                                            PhD level            Application of
                   learning                education &             tools for
                     sites                                       management
                                        research & advise                         Adapted from scheme
                                     Self sustaining people &                         proposed by
nr. 11                                    knowledge base                           College of Sciences
         What does a DSS look like?
         Examples:
         • Expert DSS for coastal Andhra Pradesh
           (India)  flood vulnerability

         • Computational Tool Catchment2Coast
           (Mozambique)  river, mangrove, shrimp

         • Environment Explorer (The Netherlands)
            landuse and environmental quality

nr. 12
         Expert DSS Integrated Coastal Zone Management
                         Andhra Pradesh
                                                                                         Land distribution: forests, plantations and pastures
                                                           50,000


                                                           45,000                                                            Baseline 2001
                                                                                                                             Autonomous development 2020
                                                           40,000
                                                                                                                             Rice Bowl 2020

                                                           35,000                                                            Max. land development 2020
                                                                                                                             Environmentally sound dev. 2020
                                                           30,000




                                              ha
                                                           25,000


                                                           20,000


                                                           15,000


                                                           10,000


                                                                  5,000


                                                                         0
                                                                                 plantations       mangrove         fodder            sylvipasture    pastures & grazing
                                                                                                                                                             land




                                                                                                    Effect of aquaculture on electricity shortage

                                                                         -100
                                                                                                                                                                     2
                                                                                                                                                                  R = 0.3579




                                                   Electricity deficit
                                                                          -80

                                                                          -60

                                                                          -40

                                                                          -20

                                                                             0
                                                                                 0              2000            4000               6000               8000                 10000   12000
                                                                                                                Aquaculture ponds area (ha)




nr. 13
         Focus on maintaining of
         good ecosystem status




nr. 14
         Environmental Explorer
           (the Netherlands)




                       Focus on coupling socio-economic
                       development with land use
                       and quality of resources
nr. 15
         Hydrodynamic model, storm
         surge and lagoon circulation




                           Coastal model
                           includes Lang Co
Many rivers are modelled
  nr. 16
         Plan for 2007/8
         • Kick-off workshop
         • 1: over-all design
         • 2: Lagoon Circulation and Storm Surge Model*
         • 3: Lagoon Water Quality model*
         • 4: Carrying Capacity Model*
         • 5: Climate Change Scenarios
         • 6: Integration / DSS Development
         • Progress Workshops
         • Setup and start of training and educational program
           with C. of Sciences & Departments
         * available at VNICZM project



nr. 17
         Tentitative plan 2007 and
         beyond
         • 7: The Catchment Model
         • 8: The Flooding Model
         • 9: The Land Use Model
         • 10: The Socio-economic Model
         • Institutionalisation of training, education
           and start of research programs




nr. 18
         How to proceed?
         DSS-project
         • Minutes of this meeting to RNE
         • Finalisation Terms of Reference DSS by RNE

         CAERE-centre
         • Contact between PPC and C. of Sciences
         • Joint letter to Embassy for C. of Sciences
           project based on existing CAERE proposal

nr. 19