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Urban Pollution from Two Stroke Engines in Asia

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									Urban Pollution from Two Stroke Engines in Asia
Technical and Policy Options

Jitendra (Jitu) Shah, N.Harshadeep, Jian Xie, Victor Loksha, Carter Brandon, Paul Martin, Priya Mathur

Transportation Forum World Bank

Primary Focus
Develop integrated planning for management of air pollution from two stroke vehicles in Asia

Baseline Scenario in Asia
 30 % Urban Population Now - will grow to 60 % by 2025.  Ten Megacities exceed 10 million - most of the world’s future megacities will be in Asia.  The transport sector alone is growing 10–15 % per year.  2-stroke vehicles constitute a large portion of the Asian transport sector.  Serious impacts on health and quality of life are already measurable in these cities; health and traffic congestion costs hundreds of millions of $/year.

Air Pollution in Asia
 Air pollution has been worsening in urban areas  PM10 is the most significant pollutant  Other pollutants are Pb, HC, CO, NOx, SOx  Impact on human health is serious  Major sources: transport, power plants, industries, bio-mass and refuse burning, domestic and commercial fuel burning, resuspension of road dust ...

ROADSIDE AIR PARTICULATE (PM-10) LEVEL 1992 - 1997
500

24 - Hour Average Concentration
Standard = 120 (ug/m3)

400

PM-10 Concentration (ug/m3)

Maximum 2nd Highest 95 Percentile Average Minimum

300

200

100

0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

2/3-WHEELERS AND POLLUTION
Up to 75% of vehicle fleet up to 85% of them have 2-stroke engines Consume up to 70% of gasoline Emit up to 74% of total HC, 47% of total CO and 50% of PM 10

Annual Cost of Congestion and Air Pollution in Selected Asian Cities (US$ Million)

Region Delhi Bangkok, Metro. Seoul Manila Jakarta

Congestion Air Pollution ? 400 154 51 68 400 1,300—3,100 6154 1800 400-800

Historical Vehicle Growth in Dhaka
250,000

No. of Registered Vehicles (Adj. for retirement)

200,000

150,000

Trucks Buses Tempos Autos 2Str-2Wh Car

100,000

50,000

-

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

How many of these are in use on the streets of Dhaka?

1997

No. of Vehicles Registered

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

500,000

Apr-71 Apr-72 Apr-73 Apr-74 Apr-75 Apr-76 Apr-77 Apr-78 Apr-79 Apr-80 Apr-81 Apr-82 Apr-83 Apr-84 Apr-85 Apr-86 Apr-87 Apr-88 Apr-89 Apr-90 Apr-91 Apr-92 Apr-93 Apr-94 Apr-95 Apr-96

Historical Vehicle Growth: Delhi

Taxi

Buses

Autorickshaw

Goods Vehicles

Scooter/M.Cycle

Car/Jeep/Stn.Wgn.

Vehicle Type Breakdown
(Bangkok, 1994)

Medium duty vehicles and trucks 2% Heavy duty buses and trucks 4%

Light duty vehicles & trucks 53%

Motorcycles 41%

PRODUCTION STATISTICS: 2W & 3W in India
2W Production, '000
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0
90-91 91-92 92-93 93-94 94-95 95-96 96-97

3W Production, '000
200 150 2W 100 50 0
90- 91- 92- 93- 94- 95- 9691 92 93 94 95 96 97

3W

Growth 93-97: 18% ; Fleet 1995 - 20 mill. to by 2000 33 millilon

Growth 93-97: 30% 1995 Fleet 1 million to grow to 1.9 million by 2000 -

Advantages of Two Stroke Engine
 Reduced engine weight, size and cost
 Higher power output  Greater operating smoothness  Easier and cheaper to maintain than stroke four-

Emission factors of CO for 2 stroke vs 4 stroke three wheelers
4-stroke motorcycle 29%

3-wheeler vehicle (2stroke) 42%

2-wheeler vehicle (2stroke) 29%

Emission factors of PM10 for 2 stroke vs 4 stroke three wheelers
4-stroke motorcycle 7%

2-wheeler vehicle (2stroke) 46%

3-wheeler vehicle (2stroke) 47%

Emission Loads of PM from Vehicles in Bangkok, 1994

Motorcycles 48%

Heavy duty buses and trucks 41%

Medium duty vehicles and trucks 4%

Light duty vehicles & trucks 7%

Emission Loads of NOx from Vehicles in Bangkok, 1994
Light duty vehicles & trucks 15% Medium duty vehicles and trucks

Motorcycle 51%

Heavy duty buses and trucks 31%

3%

Emission Loads of HC from Vehicles in Bangkok, 1994

Heavy duty buses and trucks 2% Medium duty vehicles and trucks 1%

Motorcycles 59%

Light duty vehicles & trucks 38%

Emission Loads of CO from Vehicles in Bangkok, 1994
Medium duty vehicles and trucks 1% Light duty vehicles & trucks 78% Motorcycles 19% Heavy duty buses and trucks 2%

Limitations
 Information gap - sources, emissions, ambient quality, health impact, costs/benefits ...  Institutional capacity and organization  Cross sectoral issues  Perception vs. Reality - lack of analysis  Cost-effectiveness of options  Financial constraints  Lack of Enforcement
Difficult task for decision makers

Technical and Policy Options to Control 2-stroke Emissions

 Transport Systems Management  Fuel Options  Vehicular Control Options  Air Quality Management (incl. enforcement)

Percentage changes in emission factors by measure (for 2-T 3 W) Unit: % improvement relative to baseline (g/km or km/l)

Options

PM

HC

CO

CO2

CH4

Fuel economy 20 (km/l) 5 2 5 3 0 to –5 5 3 n/a 20 50 n/a

Baseline (g/km) Periodic I&M Electronic ignition Modern carburetor Pumpless lube (PLS) Catalytic converter Engine rebuilding Fuel/Oil premix To CNG veh w/PLS 4-stroke 3-wheeler To diesel vehicle To electric vehicle

0.5 -20 -20 -5 -80 ? -30 -30 -80 -80 0 -100

7.7 -20 -20 -5 0 -40 -40 -10 10 -90 -95 -100

12.3 -35 -10 -10 0 -45 -50 0 -88 -10 -95 -100

116 110 114 110 113 122 110 113 55 93 ?

0.15

-80 6,800

Notes: n/a denotes not applicable; ? denotes not yet quantified.

The cost-benefit analysis of technical options - summary table
Net annual cost (US$m) Local Global benefit benefit (US$m)

Measures Periodic I&M (for the entire fleet) Electronic Ignition (entire fleet) Modern Carburetor (entire fleet) PLS w/ smokeless oil (50% of fleet) Catalytic converter (entire fleet) Engine rebuild (30% of fleet) Phaseout of old 3-wheelers (17% fleet) Fuel/Oil Premix (30% fleet) New 4-stroke 3-wheelers (10% fleet) Convert to CNG veh. (30% fleet) Retrofit to 4-stroke engine LPG vehicle Diesel vehicle Electric vehicle

$1. 26 $6. 60 $0. 10 ($1. 64) $6. 60 $0. 04 ($2. 93) $1. 65 $0. 10 ($1. 39) $12. 57 $0. 03 $9. 57 ? ($0. 11) ($0. 84) $2. 97 $0. 03 $3. 05 $5. 50 $0. 36 ($0. 54) $2. 97 $0. 02 ($2. 73) $2. 77 $0. 15 ($6. 22) $7. 54 ($1. 03) ruled out - too expensive LPG supply and subsidy issues ruled out little gain in PM emission potentially beneficial for phase-out of tempos

The cost-benefit analysis of technical options for three-wheelers
Net annual cost (US$m) $1.26 ($1.64) ($2.93) ($1.39) $9.57 ($0.84) $3.05 ($0.54) ($2.73) ($6.22) Annual reduction PM GWP (tons) 337 337 84 642 ? 152 281 152 141 385 18,613 7,664 18,613 5,692 -20,572 5,584 65,145 3,415 26,820 -188,840 Unit costs PM GWP ($/ton) $3,727 $0 $0 $0 ? $0 $10,858 $0 $0 $0 $67.5 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 -$0.0 $46.8 $0.0 $0.0 -Local Global Benefit Benefit (US$m) $6.60 $6.60 $1.65 $12.57 ? $2.97 $5.50 $2.97 $2.77 $7.54 $0.10 $0.04 $0.10 $0.03 ($0.11) $0.03 $0.36 $0.02 $0.15 ($1.03)

Measures Periodic I&M (for the entire fleet) Electronic Ignition (entire fleet) Modern Carburetor (entire fleet) PLS w/ smokeless oil (50 of fleet) Catalytic converter (entire fleet) Engine rebuild (30 of fleet) Phaseout of old 3-wheelers (17 fleet) Fuel/Oil Premix (30 fleet) New 4-stroke 3-wheelers (10 fleet) Convert to CNG veh. (30 fleet) Retrofit to 4-stroke engine LPG vehicle Diesel vehicle Electric vehicle

ruled out because it is too expensive need a further examination on the LPG supply and subsidy issues ruled out because there is little gain in PM emission reduction potentially beneficial for phase-out of tempos

Technical and Policy Options to Control 2stroke Emissions

 Transport Systems Management
 Fuel Options

 Vehicular Control Options
 Air Quality Management (incl. enforcement)

EMISSIONS-BASED VS. TECHNOLOGYSPECIFIC POLICY
Advantages: Lower compliance cost Politically preferable TBT agreement Bajaj’s position 4 stations already in use Stimulates R&D Disadvantages: Does not avoid coordination problems Does not safeguard against short-term fixes May be less transparent and harder to implement Cost of testing ($1 mln per manufacturer)

Current Emission Regulations
In-Use Standards:
Idle CO 4.5% volume Opacity: 65 HSU

Tariff breaks:
CNG kits (5%) Catal. conv. (15%)

Enforcement:

Tax breaks:

PUC Certificates Delhi 50% off sales tax for early 2000 Pollution checking teams Pilot programs Fines (Rs. 1000, 2000) Propane License suspensions Bans on new 3W

Current Emission Regulations in India
Standards for new vehicles, g/km:
1996 2W 3W CO 4.5 6.75 HC+NOx 3.6 5.4 2000 2W 3W 2.0 4.0 1.5 1.5 US 2W 12.0 5.0

Compliance costs (1996): Rs. 0-4000 3 models off the market (export) Bajaj 3W: extension until 1998 4-stroke production plans

TECHNOLOGY-SPECIFIC POLICIES: IMPLEMENTATION
2-stroke phase-out
tax/ tax break tradable permits
auction “grandfathering”

4-stroke and Direct Injection Catalytic converter
complementary unleaded fuel mandate or subsidy separate standards ? (MoEF proposal)

ban /proportional phase-out

...cont’d Alternative Fuels
network externality infrastructure tax breaks to vehicles/ components ZEV mandate

TRADE POLICY
Usual arguments apply
competition gain in total surplus

Tariff Revenues Commitment device (with standards)

4-Stroke Production Plans
Company Bajaj Sector scooter three-wheeler LML scooter TVS Suzuki motorcycle scooter Piaggio three-wheeler Kinetic Engg motorcycle Escorts motorcycle scooter KineticHonda scooter Production Date 1998 1997-1998 1997 1997 1998 ? 1998 1998 1999 1999

IN-USE VEHICLE POLICIES
Target 1. Maintenance (tune-up, etc.) Implementation Subsidy Emission testing + fines

2. Retrofits (CNG, EMV, LPG)

Infrastructure Emission testing + fines
Per unit subsidy Age limits Trade-in subsidy Emission testing + fines

3. Higher scrappage

4. Engine replacement

Trade-in subsidy Emission testing + fines

ISSUES SPECIFIC TO 3W
2W 15.0 8.2 5.1 3W 90.0 12.5 7.8

km/day CO, g/km HC, g/km

Inefficient engine size High use and investment Important stakeholders: drivers’ unions and fleet owners, Bajaj Substitutes (mini-bus, taxi)

POLICIES TARGETED AT USAGE

Public Transport
Downtown entry fees and parking regulation Eliminate diesel and kerosene subsidy Smokeless lube oil Eliminate scooter buying allowance

EMISSIONS-BASED POLICY: IMPLEMENTATION
Efficiency conditions Emissions taxes:
unit of taxation tax rate calculation

Standards:
Emission factors (HC, NOx, CO, PM) Cold start Driving Cycle Adjustment for power Flexibility measures

Tradable permits:
Only manufacturers involved Need reliable production/sales statistics

Planning Process
Stakeholder engagement - Technical options study - Bringing together diverse opinions - Workshop discussion papers - Plan of Action - Recommendations

N o t a “ p re s cri p ti v e ” a p p ro a ch

Stakeholders
Government

Industry groups
NGOs Clean air Community groups Judiciary International organizations Research institutes

Typical Project Components
 Air Quality Monitoring Systems & Modeling  Emissions Monitoring, Controls & Standards  Institutional Capacity Building  Vehicular Inspection & Maintenance  Cleaner and Alternative Fuels  “Green” Bus Fleets  Increasing Awareness & Participation

Example Projects in Asia
 CUTP: Air Quality Monitoring  India Environmental Capacity Building  Bangladesh Air Quality Management Project  DUTP -- Vehicle Emissions Control Component  Pakistan Environmental Capacity Building  OGDC Environmental Management  China and Thailand - AQM components

How to solve the problem?
 Better information  Consensus on issues and actions  Political commitment & rigorous enforcement  Identification of technical solution  Economic analysis of options  Appropriate macro-policy in place  Institutional cooperation  Private sector involvement  Public participation  Learn from international experience


								
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