Wind & Transmission: The Clean Energy Superhighway
Mark Lauby Manager, Reliability Assessments, NERC
“The Clean Energy Superhighway”
Industry Focus
Keeping Reliability in the Balance
• Integrating Renewables
• Climate Change Legislation
Working Together
Challenges to Reliability
NERC’s 2007 forecast projects load will grow 20% over the next ten years The grid is being operated closer to the edge than ever before Rising dependence on natural gas for generation just as North American demand begins to exceed on-shore supply New transmission needed to support wind and other renewable development
On the cusp of dramatic change as climate change and carbon legislation are considered
2008 Emerging Issues
Greenhouse gas reductions & carbon legislation Fuel storage & transportation Rising global demand for energy & equipment, increased off-shore manufacturing of raw & finished materials Modeling increasing adoption of demand-side and distributed generation resources Replacing and upgrading transmission infrastructure for the 21st century Water usage Mercury emissions
2009 Scenario Analysis
Accommodate a minimum of an additional 15% of total energy from new renewable sources by 2018
• No more than 5% made up from energy efficiency / demand response
“Stretch case”
Keeping Reliability in the Balance
Bulk power system reliability must be maintained, regardless of the generation mix
All generation must contribute to overall bulk power system reliability
Standards and criteria established must be fair, transparent and performance-based Planners and operators must understand the challenges presented by large scale integration of variable generation Wind and other variable generation must effectively integrate into planning and operations practices to ensure reliability New Planning/operating tool requirements will be described in terms of bulk power system reliability performance
Integrating Renewables: Transmission as Ultimate Enabler
Moving power from the source to demand centers
• “Clean Energy Superhighway” • We need just as much support for transmission development as we do for renewables • States must work together to bring these clean resources from areas where renewable resources exist to areas where they don’t
Situation in Texas Today
Where We Want to Be Tomorrow
Integrating Renewables: Operational Tools
Operational models & wind forecasting tools
• Use geographic diversity & varying wind patterns
Strong transmission back bone
Demand-side management
Interconnection facilitators
• Low-voltage ride through • Dispatchability
Integrating Renewables: Innovation
New technologies are needed to manage variable generation integration. For example:
• Storage
Compressed Air Energy Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles Flywheels & battery
• Smart Grid
Better visibility leads to higher productivity, efficiency, & flexibility
storage
innovate
smart grid
Climate Change Legislation: Results
Drives higher penetration of demand response and energy efficiency Accelerated retirement of less efficient coal plants
• 59 planned coal plants cancelled or deferred in 2007
Environmental dispatching of existing generation to achieve emissions targets
Further expansion of natural gas
Climate Change Legislation: Analyzing Reliability Impacts
Need transmission
Power flow implications resulting from geographical disbursement of gas plants vs. coal plants Possible strain on gas pipeline system
NERC to take active role in shaping legislation, making sure voice of reliability is heard
Moving Forward: Collaboration
NERC-EPRI joint effort to define reliable integration and identify technology requirements Industry Challenges are bigger than any one organization
Requires cooperative, industry-wide action
Accelerated investment is required
“The Clean Energy Superhighway”
The time is now
We need renewables, & we need the transmission to move the power they generate
• Industry-wide collaboration required to support this effort
Operational issues exist, but emphasis must be on solving them
Thank you
Questions & Answers