A Clean Energy Future
Hal Harvey University of Colorado 3 December 2007
The World is on Fire
Kuwait Burning
Kuwait Burning
Energy and Environment
SMOG
GLOBAL WARMING
Percent of emissions due to energy
ACID RAIN
NUCLEAR WASTE TOXICS
NOx
Sources: EPA, DOE
Nuclear Waste
So far, we are failing
5
If warming exceeds 2°C, negative effects increase and catastrophic changes become more likely
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial era) 0°C
Food Water Ecosystems
1°C
Crop yields fall Glaciers melt
2°C
3°C
4°C
5°C
Water shortages
Rising seas
Reefs damaged Species extinction
Weather
Feedback
Storms, droughts, fires, heat waves Abrupt climate change
Today
6
Impacts are Accelerating
1992 2002 2005
To maintain 50/50 chance of staying below 2°C, we must reduce 2030 emissions by at least 30 Gt
Global emissions GtCO2e 100
90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2010
Business as usual 500 ppm CO2e
(to 450 ppm in 2150)
450 ppm CO2e
30+ Gt
2020
2030 2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
8
Work in 6 sectors secures 83% of target
GtCO2e
~60 6
Emissions Mitigation potential
4 >30 Target
4
3
5
6 4 4 3 4 5 5
Agriculture/ waste/ other
Unknown mitigation
“Known” mitigation ~25
4
2030 BAU emissions
Power
Industry
Buildings
Transport
Forestry
2030 mitigation potential
9
Power sector priorities
4 key interventions
• No new conventional coal plants • Carbon capture and sequestration • Renewable portfolio standards • Nuclear power?
~60
6
4
>30 Target Unknown mitigation “Known” mitigation ~25
4 3
4
5 6 4 4 3 4 5
5
2030 BAU emissions Power
Industry Buildings Transport Forestry Agriculture/ 2030 waste/ mitigation other potential
10
Industry sector priorities
2 key interventions
• Efficiency standards for motors, pumps, and
other industrial systems • Sectoral targets for major emitters: steel, cement, petrochemicals, etc.
~60
6
4
>30 Target Unknown mitigation “Known” mitigation ~25
4 3
4
5 6 4 4 3 4 5
5
2030 BAU emissions Power
Industry Buildings Transport Forestry Agriculture/ 2030 waste/ mitigation other potential
11
Buildings sector priorities
2 key interventions
• Strict building codes and appliance
standards • Reform utilities to encourage efficiency and conservation
~60
6
4
>30 Target Unknown mitigation “Known” mitigation ~25
4 3
4
5 6 4 4 3 4 5
5
2030 BAU emissions Power
Industry Buildings Transport Forestry Agriculture/ 2030 waste/ mitigation other potential
12
Transportation sector priorities
3 key interventions
• Fuel-efficient cars • Low-carbon fuels • Reduced vehicle-miles traveled through
congestion pricing, Bus Rapid Transit, etc.
~60
6
4
>30 Target Unknown mitigation “Known” mitigation ~25
4 3
4
5 6 4 4 3 4 5
5
2030 BAU emissions Power
Industry Buildings Transport Forestry Agriculture/ 2030 waste/ mitigation other potential
13
Forestry sector priorities
1 key intervention
1984
• Leverage carbon finance to reduce
deforestation in Amazon, Congo, and Indonesia
~60
2000
6
4
>30 Target Unknown mitigation “Known” mitigation ~25
4 3
4
5 6 4 4 3 4 5
5
2030 BAU emissions Power
Industry Buildings Transport Forestry Agriculture/ 2030 waste/ mitigation other potential
14 14
First filter: act now to avoid lock-in of a high-carbon path
Source Coal power Lifetime
30 to 50 years or longer
Industry
20 to 40 years for many factories
Buildings
100 years or longer 15 years (vehicles) to 100+ years (infrastructure)
Transportation
Deforestation
n/a
Source: UNDESA (2004 population projections); IEA WEO2006 (added coal capacity); Taylor et al, IEA, 2006
15
Second Filter: Prioritize nations with most mitigation potential
Estimated 2030 mitigation potential by sector and country (<$100/Gt) GtCO2e
6
India
China
4
4
4
Africa
3
Indonesia
EU
Brazil
US
Power Buildings Industry Transport Forestry
16
What is the role of the United States?
1. Carbon cap 2. Fuel efficiency standard for cars 3. Moratorium on conventional coal 4. New mission for utilities—with attendant new incentives
5. Federal renewable portfolio standard 6. Serious R&D programs
17
What does this mean for Colorado?
1. Building Codes 2. Greenhouse gas standards for cars
3. New utility regulations and incentives
4. Low carbon fuel standard 5. Carbon cap
18
Anatomy of Victory: China Fuel Efficiency Standards
1.Early Meetings with Key Officials 2.Analysis
Oil savings
Effect on industry Testing Procedure
Enforcement
Labeling 3. Presentations to decision-makers
4. Follow-on
Modeling Enforcement
Stage 2, stage 3
071207 dtw
20